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This editorial in the NYT says Bill Clinton moved the Democratic Party to the centre in 1992. In 2016 about 25 years later, after the removal of the Glass Steagall Act led to the 2008 global financial crisis and a deep recession, after the trade relations with China led to loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs over two decades and the hollowing out of industry in the midwest, things have changed. The revolution led by Bernie Sanders, a shrinking middle class, smaller access to college education for the middle and working class, and wide disparities in income, are putting the Democratic Party closer to its roots and the days of FDR. The Democratic Party platform calls for a 21st century Glass Steagall Act to separate normal banking from investment banking, opposes the TPP to prevent any further export of jobs overseas, and goes for a $15 minimum wage. This was also evident at the opening day of the Democratic National Convention when Sanders told the gathering in Philadelphia that even though he was not the candidate, these are the planks of the platform that Hillary Clinton will be pushing for in her presidency. What the editorial does not point out is that the Republican economic platform also calls for reinstatement of Glass Steagall Act, opposes TPP and opposes any loss of American jobs to overseas locations. It differs on the minimum wage leaving it to the states, and it is likely to skew tax cuts towards the wealthy, but also possibly removing the lower income brackets from taxes as Britain has done under the Conservative Party. Both parties today are looking for support from the middle and working class and have directed their appeal to these two groups which are in upheaval. The election of Trudeau in Canada recently also followed this trend, after the hollowing out of Canadian industry in Ontario and Quebec in a similiar pattern as in the midwestern U.S.  ...

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Krugman points out that the U.S. Federal Reserve's forecasts in March 2012 show the U.S. will experience low inflation and high unemployment for many years. These forecasts are in sharp contrast to the expectations in the equity markets based on an uptick for a couple of months of unemployment numbers. The Fed's own statements suggest the improvement in hiring may be temporary and a response to the overreaction in hiring in 2009-2010 to the financial crisis, and not a lasting improvement. The Fed pointed out that the long term unemployed are at about 40% of the total unemployed and the share of the population that is working in March 2012 has barely budged from 58% in 2009.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Commitee takes a position of pause and wait as it decides in March 2012 not to take any new further bond buying stimulus measures. There is uncertainty in equity markets about the effect this will have on equity prices. During the last two pauses in 2010 and 2011 the equity markets experienced downturns after withdrawal of bond buying measures by the Fed, leading to Fed action with QE 1 and QE 2 followed by a surge in equity prices and the S&P at over 1400. At the peak during the 2001 and 2008 dot-com and housing propelled booms the S&P reached over 1500. At this rate the curve for U.S. equity prices for the 2008-2012 period resembles a repeat of a narrow steep V shaped curve with only a 7% climb in April 2012 needed to reach the 1500 point in the S&P 500 average at which the previous two booms in prices ended up in a bust. John Taylor, Stanford economist, in a separate op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on March 29, 2012, called for a change in the mandate of the U.S. Federal Reserve for a more rule based policy because of the dangers of repeated boom and bust periods in the U.S. economy as a result of ultra loose monetary policies. The problem at this point in April 2012 is that profits of companies are not expected by analysts to come in strongly in the second quarter, with a slightly improving unemployment picture, expected upward pressures on oil prices from the Iranian situation, eurozone debt problems in Spain and Italy, and slowing growth in China, India and Brazil. These fundamentals do not support an S&P at the levels seen during the height of the last two booms of 2000-2001 and 2007-2008....

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Krugman says austerity measures alone won't work as the economies in the eurozone shrink in 2012.

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Lahart says adjusting for inflation the DJIA average in early March 2013 would be about 12,900 instead of 14,254, much less than it was in Oct 9, 2007 peak. If dividends are reinvested the Dow would be at 16,600. With inflation and dividends taken together the Dow would be around 15,000. Lahart does not cite his source. Browning in a separate piece says the DJIA adjusted for dividends, inflation and taxes, according to Bespoke Investment calculations is still below the 2000 level in 1994 dollars, and provides a different view.

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Interview with Robert Shiller of Yale University, by Simon Constable of the Wall Street Journal. Shiller tells Constable that the second dip recession is imminent. Shiller senses that when the National Bureau of Economic Research looks at third quarter data for 2010, it will find that the second dip of the recession started here. In other comments Shiller said that the U.S. is standing at the edge of deflation. The view on housing markets of Shiller, who is one of the creators of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, is that housing prices could decline for the next 5 years. Shiller sees the US's chief concern as unemployment. He suggests that local governments and the federal government create jobs. One idea is to have a teacher's aide in each classroom.

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New rules in 2016 for U.S. bonus pay require banks and other financial institutions to defer at least half of executive bonus pay for 4 years, one year longer than industry practice. The rule also sets a period of 7 years for the largest firms to be able to "claw back" bonuses if the executive's actions have led to the financial institution having to restate financial results or hurt the institution. The Obama administration is making up for lack of earlier stronger action in this area during the last year it is in office. Excessive risks were taken during the financial crisis of 2008 because of executive compensation structures that incentivized this. The definition of "risk taker" is also widened to include high earners at banks who are not in senior management- to include the 5% of employees at banks that are highest paid and get a third of compensation from incentives.

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As jobs grow even with repeated increases in interest rates in 2023, inflation slows to 2.6%, unemployment rate at 3.7%, consumer sentiment is up 29% in 2 months in a UMich survey highest since 1991.US jobs growth of 353,000 in January 2024 the best in a year, twice what experts had predicted. The December figures were also revised upward by the Labor Department from 216,000 to 333,000. Unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. Wages increased by 4.5%. Job gains in 2023 were mostly in government, healthcare, hotels and restaurants. In January growth was healthy across all private sector industries. The Fed's preferred inflation rate guage was 2.6% in December. Even with repeated increases in the interest rate by the Fed, growth is strong. Much of it could be attributed to the strong investment in infrastructure, and in manufacturing, US technologies by the Biden administration with help of bipartisan support in Congress.

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President Biden easily wins the Democratic primary in South carolina with opposing candidates not meeting the 15% threshhold in any district. President Biden told the crowd that "the days when the backbone of the Democratic party had to wait at the back of the line are over. Now you are first in the nation." That 14 million new jobs had been created. A promise made and a promise kept, he said.

"As I said 4 years ago this campaign is for every one that has been knocked down, counted out and left behind... We are leaving no one behind." Unemployment is at 3.7% and unemployment among Black Americans is the lowest in decades at 5.2%.

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Dan Balz says former prime minister Blair's policies in Britain (1997-2007) closely followed the policies of moving to centrist positions of U.S. president Clinton, with Blair's election in 1997 following Clinton's wins in 1992 and 1996. Clinton followed the Reagan years and Blair the Thatcher years in government, in modifying the early postwar ideas about the economy. The election of Corbyn by 59.5% of the vote of Labor party members, exceeds the 57% achieved by Blair in 1994. The opposing candidates did very poorly. Yvette Cooper, who most resembled Blair's positions was seen as waffling on issues by not taking clear positions. She lost badly with 4.5% of the vote, showing that something significantly has changed with the the deep recession following the 2008 financial crisis, and the recovery through years of austerity policies under Cameron's Conservative government. Balz's view is that this is likely to bring up the same debate in the Democratic party- Corbyn proposes a national investment bank for large investments in education, health services and infrastructure, and a reversal of Labor policies introducing fees for college education to increase opportunity. Sanders has not proposed a national investment bank, but says he would invest in education ( including reversing the spiralling education costs), health services, infrastructure, and other areas. Hillary Clinton has made the issue of upward mobility for the middle and working class a central issue in her campaign, but lacks the authenticity claimed by Sanders, who has tapped into anti-establishment feeling following the lack of recovery in wages under 7 years of the Democratic party government in the U.S. In this context Jeb Bush has also stated at the 2013 CPAC conference that social and economic mobility is the central issue of our times, only he would approach it by giving business incentives to increase business investment to create jobs and increase wages; and by adopting a tax code that would be also fair to the middle and working class....

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Over the last ten years average growth in real per capita income has averaged 1.6%, with declines only in two years of the last twenty years, 2008 with the global financial crisis, and in 1991 a year before President George H.W. Bush lost the election to Clinton. A forecast by Mark Zandl of Moody's Economy.com shows real disposable income per capita is expected to increase by 0.4% by the end of the third quarter of 2010 from a year earlier. This will show up in consumer spending and will weaken the recovery. It is also likely to be reflected in elections in the latter part of 2010.

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Hillary Clinton has in many ways been shaped by Bill Clinton and his years as political candidate and president. With a 56% favorability rating in 2014 in a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll- and inspite of personal crises -he has shown remarkable longevity in American presidential politics, matched only by FDR.

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The IMF's changing views on the value of fiscal austerity. In the current debate about the value of fiscal austerity, there is the IMF view, a German view based on its own experience, and the views of other countries in Europe. The IMF's view has shifted over time. The IMF World Economic Outlook 2010, describes its view of the effects of austerity measures in the form of spending cuts and tax increases- "Fiscal consolidation typically has a contractionary effect on output. A fiscal consolidation equal to 1% of GDP typically reduces GDP by about 0.5% within 2 years and raises the unemployment rate by about 0.3% percentage points." Over the longer term there are benefits as the private sector is not crowded out in the search for captal funding by the excessive government borrowing. The IMF's economic models suggest that it would take 5 years before reaching the breakeven point when the benefits of austerity measures exceed the effects of austerity. The German view held by German central bankers is that the actions stimulate growth in the short term. Manfred Neumann, professor emeritus at the Institute for Economic Policy at the University of Bonn, says this is called the "German hypothesis" as it reflects the experience of Germany from austerity actions taken by Germany. Laurence Ball, professor of Economics at John Hopkins University, is critical of the "German hypothesis" and its application across Europe in different situations. Germany is a large exporting nation and exports helped counterbalance the effects of austerity measures. Within the eurozone with fixed exchange rates the exports of less competitive countries cannot be boosted through devaluing the currency to gain price competitiveness. The other problem is that with interest rates close to zero in the euro zone the central banks cannot cut rates aggressively to counteract the effects of spending cuts. The problem gets compounded when a number of countries are taking austerity measures at the same time accentuating the downturn....

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Fords plans to introduce new engines and transmissions for the Fiesta subcompact, the Mustang, the Super duty pickup and the F-150 pickup. With these engines and transmisssions Ford's goal is to take a leadership role in fuel economy among carmakers. In all Ford plans to introduce nine new or upgraded engines and six new transmissions in its cars and trucks, a significant step for Ford.

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The increased oil supply in the Middle East will come largely from Saudi Arabia and Iraq by 2015. By 2020 the increased oil supply from Iraq will surpass increased Saudi production, when compared with 2009, according to the International Energy Agency. Iraqi production is currrently 2.7 million barrels a day. This jumps significantly in coming years. JBC Energy expects Iraqi oil output to increase to about 8 million barrels a day by 2020. This is a result of modernization and participation of foreign oil companies in the Iraqi oil industry. Comparitively Libyan output shows only a small increase.

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One senior real estate economst at Property and Portfolio Research says the value of New York metropolitan area office buildings will decline by 58% from its late 2007 peak. Losses of 40 % have already ocurred, bu there is a ways to go for commercial real estate losses.

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Lawrence Katz, Harvard labor economist, talks to Friedman about the jobs crisis in the U.S.. Katz identifies three jobs crises occurring at the same time today. One is the drop in the demand for goods and services that resulted from the longer term effects of the financial crisis of 2008, with rising foreclosures, weak housing markets, bad debt on the balance sheets of banks, and interest rates at close to zero reducing the scope of action by the Federal Reserve bank. The second, is the widespread long term unemployment with workers dropping out of the labor market. The third, is the nature of new factories and hiring. Work in new factories is done through increased automation, information technology and fewer workers. As a result job creation is a fraction of what it was in the past. Not mentioned here is the shrinking of the public sector under the strain of budget deficits for local, state and federal government. This leads to the question of how America will create jobs in the future. Katz believes the answer is creating more "hubs," networked urban areas like Austin, Silicon Valley, and Raleigh-Durham, by bringing together universities, high-tech manufacturers, software providers, and startup companies, to cooperate in creating new products that enhance people's lives worldwide. This has to be done by the private sector and government working together to build the infrastructure and make the investments in education, training of workers, and equipment for new job creation....

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In nominal terms China's currency, the yuan, appreciated by 3.7% in 2011. The real effective exchange rate, measured on a trade weighted basis and adjusted for relative consumer prices is the more significant rate. The real rate shows the yuan up by 5.3% in 2011, according to the Bank for International Settlements. In November 2011 the yuan appeared to be weakening, and China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao, says China wants to see the renminbi more flexible "in either direction."