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The German people offer a warm welcome to refugees from Syria and North Africa suffering enormous hardships to make their way across seas and overland through Eastern Europe to Germany's borders. Germany of its own accord waived the right to deport Syrians back to the first European nation entered, and supported Syrian refugees right to stay with an 87% acceptance rate for Syrians seeking asylum. In August 2015 alone 100,000 refugees were accepted. Chancellor Merkel and Germany lead the European Union by example, and what an example it has been. Faiola of the Washington Post tells the story of Abed Almoen Alalie, a civil servant from Syria who fled with his family, and after being roughly treated in Budapest, Hungary, cannot believe his eyes seeing the welcoming crowds as he gets off the train in Munich. Never has a nation in such a short time made its way into the hearts of so many as Germany has done in 2015. The crisis found Germany, or Germany found the crisis, either way Germany embraced it and the people who came with it in a way hard to imagine. With chancellor Merkel leading the way using strong words and courage of her Lutheran convictions- "The fundamental right to asylum does not have a limitation. As a strong, economically healthy country, we have the strength to do what is necessary." Many Germans have responded in a degree and manner that is hard to imagine . They say this was Germany's effort at redemption after the war. In a poll by ARD released September 3, 2015, 88% of Germans said they would donate money or clothes to refugees or have done so, and 67% say they will volunteer to help. ...

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Bernanke's speech at the annual Fed Jackson Hole meeting put any future policy action off for the September meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee, which will meet for 2 days to allow lengthy discussion of issues. He repeated his focus made in earlier statements that other actions are needed to reduce the headwinds facing the U.S., actions other than the Fed's monetary policy. He called for "good, proactive housing policy," which has been a major missing piece in the jigsaw puzzle of the American economy. Specifically, "families with mortgage debt bigger than the value of their homes facing unusual financial hardship which is also hurting the banks." Martin Feldstein and other experts have repeatedly called for action to help homeowners under water since the mortgage financial crisis hit in 2008. And the government's response has been tepid at best. Most evaluations of the Home Affordable Modification program and other programs to help prevent foreclosures consider them a serious failure of the Obama administration. Higher unemployment has only increased the urgency for government action in this area and good proposals were made by Feldstein and other experts. On the deficit and debt issues Bernanke would like to see debt to GDP ratios "at least stable, or preferably, declining over time." He also cautions that this be done bearing in mind "the fragility of the current economic recovery." He says his estimate for the U.S. economy's growth rate is 0.7% annual rate for the second half, and 'looks likely to improve." His prediction is for inflation to settle at around 2%. His main concern is that the there will be "an erosion of skills and loss of attachment to the labor force" for the long term unemployed....

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Areddy describes the choices facing China's president Xi Jinping as he faces protests in Hong Kong demanding the resignation of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying. Protestors are also calling for canceling of a plan to limit nominations for chief executive to a committee loyal to Beijing. Xi Jinping has experience with Hong Kong affairs as he held the portfolio for Hong Kong affairs as part of the leadership when he was vice president. There are precedents where Beijng has changed course, as it sees it important to put memories of Tiananmen protest suppression behind. In 2003 six years after Britain handed Hong Kong to China -under an agreement for "one country, two systems," that granted separate status and system of government to Hong Kong- an anti-subversion law was pulled back. And the unpopular Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, a shipping magnate, resigned after 18 months. Beijing has to balance its concern for the "contagion effect" of protests on other parts of China, with the need to maintain the right climate for business and investment in Hong Kong and other financial centres. With slowing growth and limits to overexpanding credit, a crackdown in Hong Kong would further exacerbate problems with the international community, and create tensions in Taiwan about future reintegration with China. China warned foreigners not to interfere, and the American Consulate in Hong Kong stated it "strongly supports Hong Kong's well-established traditions and Basic Law protections of internationally recognized fundamental freedoms, such as freedom of peaceful assembly, freedom of expression and freedom of the press." The British government also pointed to Hong Kong's "fundamental rights and freedoms, including the right to demonstrate," which were in the spirit of the 1997 transfer agreement....

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GM plans to bring the Chevy Volt, a plug in type of car that will run more on the battery than the Toyota Prius- which uses gasoline support as soon as it picks up speed- to market in 3 years. But it doesn't yet know how it will do it. What created the opportunity is that Toyota is having a hard time of its own trying to figure out a battery that can provide more electric power, more punch, that would raise the Prius mpg from 46 to about 80 mpg. Its lithium ion technology batteries to achieve this haven't passed the safety tests so Toyota is pushing this back to 2011. This created a opportunity for GM to come up with its own for a plug in Chevy Volt. Its looking a small companies in the US that might supply these batteries. GM has come up with 2 consortiums of suppliers, one from MIT called A123 that is based on the work of MIT Prof.Yet-Ming Chinag who works with iron phosphate technology that is less prone to fires and safety issues. The other is led by S. Korean chemical maker LG Chem. Toshiba is working on research for a lithium ion battery for cars that will be safe on the Japanese side. It is not clear how this will turn out because batteries for laptops have had fires and safety issues, but the R&D is on in earnest for a new safe electric battery for cars. And automakers know its not just about an electric car. On it rests the image and innovation leader perception that is so important in marketing that no amount of advertising can fix, as the US automakers have learned to their extreme grief. ...

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Karen Eliott House was a former publisher of the WSJ. Now with WSJ in Murdoch's News Corporation's hands, she is a fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center. Here she points to the diverging situation between the USA and Saudi Arabia. She thinks the US cannot protect the Saudi monarchy (which dates back to Abdul Aziz and his support from President Roosevelt first by recognition of the new state of Saudi Arabia in 1932 and support during the war), from its domestic challenges. One of these domestic challenges is changing demographics as the young or people below 15 years age make up 40% of the population, rising unemployment, and pressures for modernization which the monarchy has done little to respond to, and the lack of democratic forms which would give people a chance to vent their feelings. For the U.S. the frustration is that the Saudis have done little or can do little for the USA in the way of moderating oil prices as they move still higher, because of speculative trends, decline of production in its own maturing oil fields, and needs to finance huge new plants and cities to provide employment to a growing population. In fact Libyan oil officials has been more of a moderating influence recently than the Saudi oil officials. So it appears that what Karen is saying is that the Saudis are pursuing their own interests in their region and the wider region that includes South Asia and Northern Africa, and the US is pursuing its own interests, which at this time are not as clearly defined, except securing oil supplies and protecting Israel. The 2 countries USA and Saudi Arabia are going their diverging and different ways in a way that is irreversible....

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Difficulties facing a Obama administration, taking over in the middle of a huge economic crisis, with so many high expectations aroused by the lofty rhetoric that a letdown would occur for the faithful and young people energized by his candidacy were these expectations to remain unfulfilled. Two wars and their conduct could raise controversy as they cannot be abruptly be wound down and the Afghan war could present surprises as it has for all foreigners. And there are no easy solutions to the economic crisis which could be stubborn and prolonged like the one faced by Japan and its lost decade. Japan had a leader in Koizumi who energized the Japanese during their economic crisis years, some changes ocurred but Japan still labors on and its a different country now without the same hardworking ethic and cando spirit among the young. And there are no easy solutions like investing heavily in infrastructure and energy and providing healthcare to all working people, because with the one trillion dollars going to shore up the financial system and the banks there is only so much Obama and Democrats can do with public spending without much higher deficits and other difficulties. Not delivering on these promises or delivering inadequately could lead to a letdown for supporters. And for black people and Hispanics in the working class, and workers who have lost jobs as unemployment rises especially in the auto industry in the midwest where he got much of his crucial support, the conditions are tough with jobs scarce and rising home foreclosures, for which the government may be able to help but only in a limited way as the economic crisis may take a long time to unwind. ...

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Holman Jenkins makes some good points as the auto companies in Detroit look for government rescue. He suggests dumping CAFE altogether if Congress is serious about conservation, a gas tax would be the only intellectually honest thing to do. In the light of falling gas prices in November 2008 with $1.98 a gallon in Michigan and across the country, how will demand for hybrids and the Chevy Volt at $40,000 fare? Its hard to tell but some serious thinking about energy and automobiles is in order. Congressional mandates have a tendency to have poor consequences as Holman mentions, because of the loopholes in the mandates like the fuel mileage rules that allowed fleet averages, loopholes Detroit automakers used to lead the trucks and SUV boom to coverup hidden problems for so long. Some of these had to do with the UAW's insistence on rules and benefits and things like the Jobs Banks that were obsolete in a age of globalized manufacturing and unequal playing fields with the Japanese and Koreans in mostly unuionized factories in the southern United States. Some of them with lack of effort, vision and innovation by Detroit car companies to make the fuel efficient technologies to reduce costly fuel imports, and the failure to bridge the union management divide that has been there all the time in the postwar period skewing decisions and leading to obsolete behaviours. Holman sees nationalization of the auto companies as the only possibility given the car companies history and failures, with or without bankruptcy. Even then he does not see them becoming competitive without good leadership and right policies in running the companies and honest policy at the government level, and courage to get a firm grip on reality. ...

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Luis Gutierrez, Charirman of the subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit, has a bill in Congress that is presented as a reform effort by the lending industry, many Republicans and some consumers. It would allow payday operators in the $50 billion payday lending industry, to charge what amounts to an annual percentage rate of 391%. Rep. Maxine Walters described the bill this way, "we've got to resist any attempt to make it look as if we are cracking down, when in fact we are opening the door to more abuse." This is what Countrywide's Mozilo does in a interview with BW, that he gave at the time the housing and mortgage crisis was breaking open in 2008. And this is the way those in both political parties in Congress, lobbyists, and businessmen who profited from all the unethical things that went on in the housing lending industry, all worked together to undermine the foundations of the country's economy by putting toxic assets at the centre of the credit and banking system of the US. They did this by saying that they were helping the poorer classes get access to housing, and used the term "a piece of the American dream," which seems to be the phrase that opens all sorts of caves in the American imagination, like Ali Baba and his magic lamp and his magic phrase did in Arabian times. And so the NYT editorial writer, facing the greater evil suggests that a smaller evil, an usurious rate of 36% that is an option afforded to military families is a desirable option, when at that rate the loan numbers would double in less than 3 years. All this when the government at federal state and local levels could assume this among the many activities it already undertakes, because it does best those activities, such as some of the public transportation and other services. The government bank could require proof of desperate need, and provide loans for purposes of medical care, care of elderly, care of children, educational needs, food and shelter needs, at rates of 10-15% to make up for losses in loans not repaid, and run it as a nonprofit. Capitalism is also of the good kind and the bad kind, the 391% payday loan capitalism or the loans at pricing that made them unaffordable to low income people, or loans to low income people who did not have incomes to afford housing (where the risk was then passed on to the owners of the securities after a false sertification of A rating had been obtained by undermining the rating process) is a bad kind of capitalism, and the 36% usurious rate for military families is of the tolerably bad kind of capitalism, and the 10-15% kind of payday government sponsored loan is of the good kind of capitalism. And critical to its understanding is what experience has taught us in the last 100 years- that for this good kind of capitalism, there is a critical social role for the government to play. ...

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The government bailout of Fannie and Freddie was expected to cost hundreds of billions of dollars according to some estimates during the financial crisis in 2008-2009. The costs peaked at $187 billion in 2011. The transfer of $59.4 billion by Fannie Mae to the U.S. Treasury in 2013 lowers the net cost to $60.5 billion. The net cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program or TARP has decreased to less than $23 billion. At one point the cost of TARP reached $419 billion for the U.S. Treasury. The government sold the last of its shares in private insurance company AIG and made $22.7 billion in gains. Treasury and Fed loaned $182 billion to AIG and at one point owned 90% of the company. Chrysler exited the TARP bailout program in 2011 at a net cost to the U.S. government of $1.2 billion. So far in May 2013 the GM bailout cost $19.6 billion, this would come down to about $11.82 billion if the U.S. government sold its GM shares at the price in May 2013. The U.S. Federal Reserve says it has not lost money in any of its emergency lending facilities, even though some loans are outstanding. The FDIC says its fees from rescue programs exceed losses....

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The European Union’s total defense spending increased by 30% from 2021 to 2024, to 326 billion euro or $341 billion. That is 1.9% of the EU’s GDP it's economic output, according to European Defense Agency. It is still short of 2%.  Britain will ramp up defense spending all the way up to 3% in 2027. Britain is short of defense equipment with transfers to Ukraine and with much of the defense budget going to maintain a nuclear deterrent. This leaves less for other defense needs. This report says most of the procurement for defense equipment goes to countries outside Europe.The Kiel Institute says 80% comes from outside EU. It is not mere shortage of funds it is the severe bottleneck from lack of defense manufacturing industry  that is putting Germany, France and UK in a situation where they are too dependent on the US. It takes years to build this capacity. Russia built it up during 3 years of war by going to a wartime economy and it now produces 4 times the ammunition Europe produces. The US did the same to match and exceed Russian capabilities and capacity, Europe lagged behind with unwillingness of Macron and of Scholz in particular to switch funds from needs in transport, infrastructure to defense. The debt brake Merkel to stop debt based infrastructure investment is what ails Germany. It has had two pernicious effects it created the AfD's surge by lowering economic growth and investment in public needs - housing, transport, public services. It worsened the SPD and CDU performance by not investing in security with no policies to return crime committing refugees to their home countries. A combination of aid and other assistance, diplomacy, secured the cooperation of countries to take them back. A strong display of action on removing refugees committing any offenses would have lessened the number of terrorism incidents. ...

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The U.S. Fed publishes a 38 page policy statement in Nov. 2013 on procedures and guidelines for stress tests of U.S. banks. Efforts to increase clarity for stress tests. Outlines for three scenarios- baseline, adverse and severely adverse.

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This WSJ editorial in September 2014 says many of president Obama's statements and decisions on Obama healthcare legislation and implementation, Syria, NSA and privacy, the Middle East, Russia, showed poor judgement. It refers to a piece by Peter Baker in NYT where it is said that Obama mocked how people see him as too professorial, diffident, in a sarcastic statement. The problem says WSJ is that president Obama has poor judgement. Being academically credentialed and quick grasp of subject matter is not the same as having the ability to discern things, instinct and grasp of the essence of the matter. George Bush senior had a long resume and was academically credentialed. By comparison Truman had a short resume and was not academically credentialed or quick with data and analysis. He had something more essential and important- a discerning mind and grasp of the larger picture, as well as listening abilities for exceptional advisors such as General Marshall and Acheson he gathered around him....

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David Super, a professor at Georgetown University Law School, says letting the fiscal cliff cuts in spending go into effect is fairer to the poor and middle class than the $1.2 trillion in spending cuts proposed by president Obama and the Democrats. He says the pressure of public opinion would lead to some minideals for the Bush tax cuts to go to lower incomes and for restoring some funds to defense after the fiscal cliff agreement goes into effect, leading to a fairer outcome.

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Cook and Olson look at how U.S. shale oil firms have handled the slump in oil prices. Their report in WSJ says the shale firms have weathered the oil slump well, with production declines in 2016 of only 535,000 barrels a day compared to 2015. The Saudi decision to not cut production and let oil prices drop has affected mostly higher cost less flexible production for mega projects such as deep water projects and oil sands in Canada. Oil shale firms are expected to snap back, according to experts, as demand increases. U.S. production is expected to increase by about 700,000 barrels a day by end of of 2017, say experts.

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Major decline in oil prices in Oct. 2014 as prices drop to $81 per barrel and are forecast to reach $70. U.S. oil production increased by about 56% or 3.1 million barrels a day since 2004. U.S. demand for gas and fuel declined 8% compared to 2004. Initially instability and wars in the Middle East sustained high oil prices in 2012-2013. Yet with growing output from shale and other sources in N. America and slowing economies of Europe and China, the situation reached a point in 2014 where supply exceeds demand. This shift more than offsets any instability in trouble spots. The situation affects the U.S. consumer favorably with an estimate of $1 billion in savings for American consumers with every one cent drop in price at the gas pump, by one estimate from Deutsche Bank analysts. Typical American families gained an extra $50 a month from the decline June to October 2014, according to analysts at Gasbuddy.com. The declines are a boost for the slowing economies of Europe, Japan, China, S, Korea and India. China's imports for 2015 are estimated at 61% of oil consumption, using official estimates. In the current slowdown the lower prices offer relief. India which imports 75% of its energy benefits signficantly, as this helps lower inflation and reduces cost of fuel subsidies for state run companies. Russia is adversely affected by the declines as it depends on oil and gas exports for 50% of the nation's budget. Estimates by AFK Sistema economists show the Russian economy contracting in 2015 with oil at near $90 per barrel (Brent crude is at about $85, and WTI at $81 in early Oct. 2014). Russia's former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin reflects opinion among Russian executives and politicians, when he told state television that Saudi Arabia may be pushing prices lower to target Russia's oil resource based economy and Mr. Putin, in an effort to broaden the effect of sanctions. (The Saudis have strongly protested the Putin intervention in Syria.) Venezuela has used $120 per barrel and Angola $98 for its budget, leading to a strong hit for the economy. ...

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How Martin Feldstein weighs the risks of inflation and of moral hazards in helping those who fueled the subprime crisis with their mistakes with the risks of a sharp downturn, and what thoughts he has on the issue of lowering rates just as the Bernbanke Fed prepares for its policy meeting September 18, 2007. He looks for a cut starting from the current 5.25% to 4.25% or even less depending on the situation as it evolves. Feldstein gives a measure for household wealth that will be lost and what will be lost in consumer spending as a result. His measure is for a 20% cumulative fall in house prices that would reduce household wealth by $4 trillion which would impact consumer spending by about $200 billion, thats about 5% consumers would spend more if they had that $4 trillion. This works out to about 1.5% of GDP which he suggests would tip the US economy into a recession. This is not counting the loss of access to spendable cash that the consumer has used for the last decade in terms of mortgage equity withdrawals which totaled $9 trillion this last decade and financed a lot of the sustained consumer spending, these mortgage equity withdrawals to finance spending would decline significantly in the new conditions. In addition with more defaults and falling prices in a vicious circle the process could accelerate quickly, further impairing the portfolios of banks and financial institutions causing some to collapse. ...

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Gross exposure for derivatives, credit default swaps and other financial instruments tied to a default in five EU countries- Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Italy- is about $616 billion according to information from Markit, the Bank for International Settlements and and data firms. Christopher Whalen, editor of the Institutional Risk Analyst, says the financial industry is not cooperating to provide the information needed to understand the true extent of the exposure and the risks involved. This is why the Europeans are afraid of a default, he says, they have no idea what to expect out there. Darrell Duffie, Prof. at the Stanford School of Business, says this raises questions whether regulators know what contagion might occur among swaps holders.