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Failures in China's financial system as seen by two bankers
12/11/2010
Failures in China's banking system as seen by two bankers Walter and Howie. The risks to the Chinese economy of real debt to GDP ratios that are upwards of 80% of GDP when local government and other debt that would end up as sovereign debt is taken into account. The inability of the system in China to control lending to state enterprises and local government.
Linked Articles
China's financial system: Look again
Economist 12/11/2010
Beijing's Financial Day of Reckoning Is NearWall Street Journal 06/21/2011
A Brady Plan type solution to the debt crisis in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and other EU countries
11/30/2010
The extension of maturities for the debt of these countries is a key part of the solution. The Brady Plan that helped sove the Latin American debt crisis of the eighties and nineties is an example of the way out of the crisis. Resistance from bankers to taking losses of upto 30% and extending the maturities for debt. The need for Germany and other countries to set aside money that would be needed to recapitalize banks that need funds to handle these losses. Nicholas Brady when asked about this says it is important for this to be "a unified decision." This would create the confidence in the financial markets that will be needed.
Linked Articles
Europe's Central Banker Seeks Deeper Fiscal Union
Wall Street Journal 06/03/2011
Nervous Europe Trying to Halt Economic CrisisNew York Times 11/30/2010
Why at the heart of the Volcker Rule for bank regulation, according to Mr. Volcker, is the idea of CEO attestation
10/28/2010
Volcker's advice about writing the rule was to keep it broad so that it limited the room for evasion. Volcker advised regulators to remember what Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart said about pornography -"I know it when I see it." Treasury Secretary Lew pointed to the responsibility of the top executive to "set the right tone," for the whole organization.
Linked Articles
Volcker Rule to Require CEOs Guarantee Compliance
Wall Street Journal 12/06/2013
Volcker on His 'Rule'— Keep It BroadWall Street Journal 10/28/2010
China Investment Corporation (CIC) and the funds needed to recapitalize China's state owned banks
08/21/2010
Linked Articles
China's CIC Works on Funding Mechanism
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2012
Chinese banks: Circular logicEconomist 08/21/2010
The threat posed by China's local government debt to China's banking and financial system
07/29/2010
Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the estimates of the local government debt varies from 27% to 42% of GDP. Prof Shih of Northwestern University, an expert on this subject, now estimates this to be $2.6 trillion or 42% of GDP. Other estimates from the National Audit Office put this at 27% and from China's central bank put this at 30%. Prof Shih's earlier estimate was 34%. Because of the large number of local government entities and the lack of transparency the figures may actually turn out to be higher as China's regulators and other analysts improve their estimates. The 42% estimate is $2.6 trillion in local government debt. China's large foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion and low interest rates will give China some space for addressing the problem with another round of injection of capital into the banking system.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2011
Where China Hides Its DebtBusinessWeek 07/29/2010
Rehman Malik's admission that the miliants are entrenched in the southern Punjab.
04/29/2010
How this affects the American war efforts allied with poor governance in Afghanistan as problems lead back to Pakistan.
Linked Articles
Official Admits Militancyâs Deep Roots in Pakistan
New York Times 06/02/2010
U.S. Report on Afghan War Finds Few Gains in 6 MonthsNew York Times 04/29/2010
China's bubbles in stock and property markets and fears of a sharp downturn.
04/14/2010
Excessive bank lending followed now by excessive tightening of monetary policy could lead to as sharp downturn.
Linked Articles
Fear Pervades China's Stocks As Market's Gains Disappear
Wall Street Journal 05/13/2010
Can China Cool Its Economy?BusinessWeek 04/14/2010
Bank of England's Mervyn King and the new Business Secretary Cable see a need to shrink the banks.
10/21/2009
Policy on banking regulation will be shaped by two visions of the future of banking, Tory and Liberal, both agree on the need to reduce sysemic risks posed by large banks.
Linked Articles
Economist 05/13/2010
BOE's King: Big Banks Should Get Broken UpWall Street Journal 10/21/2009
Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King's warning about the fiscal deficit and Conservative efforts under Osborne.
10/08/2009
The Conservatives made cutting the fiscal deficit a key part of their platform. King warned about the fiscal deficit assuming alarming proportions during the election.
Linked Articles
The Bank of England's Kingmaker
BusinessWeek 05/13/2010
That's more like itEconomist 10/08/2009
Shift to Social Democrats as German chancellor loses public support in Germany.
09/28/2009
The main reason the Social Democrats did poorly in the 2009 elections in Germany says an expert is because they driftd aay from their working class base with their economic reforms. Now there is a shift back to the Social Democrats and Greens under the Christian Democratic government of chancellor Merkel.
Linked Articles
Merkel Looks to Recharge Her Ratings
New York Times 07/21/2010
Germany's Long Road to ReformWall Street Journal 09/28/2009
The shortcomings of the regulatory reform proposal. Its dependence on having good regulators in place.
06/17/2009
Unltimately the behaviour of markets and regulators depends on the quality of the people. Obama's reluctance to change the entire structure.
Linked Articles
Obama’s Remarks on Financial Regulatory Reforms
Wall Street Journal 06/17/2009
Steven Pearlstein - Regulatory Reform That Falls Far Short of ItWashington Post 06/19/2009
Paul Krugman responds to Arthur Laffer's points about inflation by saying reversing course would put us back into a steep downturn.
06/11/2009
Krugman says only three times in the past has amajor economy faced a liquidity trap, where there is no more room to cut interest rates. During the depression years, during Japan's lost decade and now. In the previous two situations, in 1937 and 1996, a premature tightening of credit put the economy back into a steep downturn.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Stay the CourseNew York Times 06/15/2009
S. Korea's second household debt binge in the 15 years since the 1997 financial crisis
05/18/2009
The first period of rising household debt ocurred with the credit card boom when the government promoted consumer spending as a way to stimulate the economy. By 2003 this became a serous problem and the government rescued a credit card issuer in 2003. Household debt is again a major problem in 2012 with the increasing number of companies in financial lending that are not regulated.
Linked Articles
Notes From Another Credit Card Crisis
New York Times 05/18/2009
S. Korea tries to curb mounting debt and avert a crisis - The Washington PostWashington Post 07/09/2012
Taylor and Cochrane say the French and German banks exaggerated the effects of contagion in the Greece debt crisis from the beginning
12/02/2010
Prof. Cochrane at the University of Chicago and Prof. Taylor at Stanford University, say French and German banks exaggerated the effects of contagion from the beginning as a way to delay writedowns on Greek bonds held by the banks. The appearance of lurching from one summit negotiation to the next throughout 2011 dented confidence in the eurozone with slowing or negative growth in eurozone economies, and is likely to hurt banks operating in the new economic enviroment.
Linked Articles
'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
A Better Grecian BailoutWall Street Journal 02/22/2012
The Volcker Rule banning proprietary trading by banks and its implementation
10/28/2010
Linked Articles
Volcker to Push Back on Banks' Trading
Wall Street Journal 02/13/2012
Volcker on His 'Rule'— Keep It BroadWall Street Journal 10/28/2010
Housing in a deep slump in 2011.
10/16/2010
Housing markets surveyed show rising inventories. The faulty documentation crisis likely to make things worse for banks with efforts to force banks to buyback loans.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/16/2010
Housing Gloom DeepensWall Street Journal 10/26/2010
Local governments and state-owned companies are fueling a real estate bubble in China in 2009-2010.
07/29/2010
Northwestern University Prof. Shih estimates that state banks in China hold $1.68 trillion in debt of local investment companies which invest for local governments. In many cases the banks have little collateral. The central government in China aggressively supported this lending to quickly get money to projects in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, but this may have backfired with money going into speculation and building a bubble.
Linked Articles
Chinaâs Real Estate Boom and Conflicting Policy
New York Times 08/01/2010
Where China Hides Its DebtBusinessWeek 07/29/2010
Paul Volcker and Economists in the Squam Lake Group share concerns about the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council
06/15/2010
Volcker voiced his concern that a lot depends on how tough and vigilant a new council is with banks in the US on a day to day basis. The 10 member Financial Oversight Council was set up in the US financial reform bill of 2010. Some of the economists in the Squam Lake Group, 15 highly reputed economists in the U.S., also share this concern.
Linked Articles
Paul Volcker Pushes for Reform, and Regrets His Past Silence
New York Times 07/09/2010
15 Economists Issue Crisis-Prevention ManualNew York Times 06/15/2010
The Project on Government Oversight Report in 2013 and the revolving door at the S.E.C. in the U.S.
04/24/2010
Robert Khuzami was enforcement chief at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in the critical period following the 2008 financial crisis. He was also a lawyer at Deutsche Bank during the period when the problems at Deutsche Bank happened which resulted in legal settlements. The revolving door has affected the way the S.E.C. carried out its enforcement responsibilities.
Linked Articles
S.E.C.'s Revolving Door Hurts Its Effectiveness
New York Times 02/11/2013
SEC's Top Cop Oversaw Deutsche CDOsWall Street Journal 04/24/2010
Volcker, the Volcker Rule, and the risks of the concentration of assets in a few banks in the U.S. financial system
12/17/2009
Linked Articles
Charlie Rose Talks to Paul Volcker
BusinessWeek 10/27/2011
A Crisis Is a Terrible Thing to WasteBusinessWeek 12/17/2009
The risks to the U.S. financial system posed by concentrating 50% of deposits in just 5 banks
10/21/2009
The failure to make changes during the financial crisis of 2008 and the risks this poses in the future.
Linked Articles
Warren Stephens: How Big Banks Threaten Our Economy
Wall Street Journal 04/29/2012
BOE's King: Big Banks Should Get Broken UpWall Street Journal 10/21/2009
World Bank chief Zoellick on the global economy and how to prepare an effective long tem policy
10/02/2009
Zoellick sees the short term Stimulus and central bank monetary easing policies of 2008, as not appropriate to the long term problems of debt reduction and energy price volatility. He emphasizes the need for bridge financing for Spain and Italy though he accepts the German view that credit cannot be provided freely and reforms need to be undertaken. A partial euro bond solution is a step in the right direction.
Linked Articles
World Bank Chief Urges Euro Bonds
Wall Street Journal 05/31/2012
2010 Looks 'Highly Uncertain,' Zoellick SaysWall Street Journal 10/02/2009
Obama is interviewed by Seib of WSJ. His idea to take a "light touch" to regulation.
06/17/2009
Obama's desire to avoid any appearance of a heavy hand in regulation.
Linked Articles
Obama’s Financial Reform Plan: The Condensed Version
Wall Street Journal 06/17/2009
Obama Aspires to a 'Light Touch,' Not a Heavy HandWall Street Journal 06/17/2009
Clearly not a Roosevelt like approach or major change in regulatory structures says Nocera of NYT.
06/17/2009
A lot will now depend on who is in charge and creating a culture where strong regulation is an essential step for proper functioning of markets.
Linked Articles
Obama’s Remarks on Financial Regulatory Reforms
Wall Street Journal 06/17/2009
Only a Hint of Roosevelt in Financial OverhaulNew York Times 06/18/2009
As the government sells $5 trillion in new debt by one estimate, the problem of an estimated $ 1 trillion in troubled assets on the banks books is being put off for another day.
06/04/2009
The FDIC's Legacy Loans Program's $1 billion pilot program attracts no interest. The Public Private Partnership Program of Secretary Geithner, like Secretary Paulson's TARP program before Geithner, is also unlikely to attract much interest as banks are not willing to take the prices that would require them to show large losses on their books. But this means that these problems are postponed for another day.
Linked Articles
Plan to Help Banks Clear Their Books Is Halted
New York Times 06/04/2009
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World GrowthNew York Times 06/04/2009
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