LyrArc Article Gist
Leaders of North Korea and South Korea, Kim Jong-Un and Moon Jae-in meet on April 27, 2018, at the military demarcation line between North and South Korea.  After handshakes and Mr. Moon stepping onto North Korean soil for a few minutes, Kim Jong-Un visits Seoul for peace talks.  This is a historic moment for the two countries as this is the first time since the Korean War (1950-53) that a North Korean leader has visited the South. No peace treaty was signed after the Korean War. During the period of six decades that followed the Korean War, particularly the period after 1980, the South Korean economy recovered from the war and expanded following the Japanese export model with large conglomerates such as Samsung. The North Korean economy has struggled in the period and North Korea is one of the poorest countries isolated for most of this period like Burma from the rest of the world. The development of nuclear weapons was pursued to prevent any external threats to the government, and decades of sanctions followed with aborted efforts to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. Recent ballistic nuclear tests and the installation of a new anti missile system in South Korea led to tighter sanctions with the cooperation of China. This heightened tensions, followed by the tighter sanctions. Kim Jong Un and the government are looking for ways to win approval in the international community, and find a way out of the tight sanctions. South Korea, Japan and the U.S. government are not sure whether this will lead to any results in denuclearization. The summit with Moon will be followed by a summit between president Trump and Kim Jong Un of North Korea. If a way can be found for the North Korean government and party leaders to transition to acceptance in the international community followed by integration of the North and South's economies over an extended period, there is a possibility that denuclearization could work, because it is to maintain the current government in North Korea that nuclear development was pursued in the North. Ideological conflict is now less of a factor in the conflict between North and South Korea as it was in the early days of the Korean War with the Cold War and Communism's advances in Eastern Europe and Asia the big issue at the time. Today China itself is more of a state run economy under the Communist Party following capitalism with Chinese characteristics than the old Communist model, and ideological conflict is not an issue between the U.S. and Communist run countries. This leaves open the possibility of a solution particularly as at some point just as in the case of Vietnam and the U.S., North Korea could see its future more allied with that of South Korea than with China. That leaves an opening for a timetable of transitional actions plus effective implementation stages, with incentives for the U.S. and Japan to negotiate a settlement. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Denning says that because of the enormous repercusions on Iran's economy of a war in the Persian Gulf, a more likely scenario is not the cutoff of supplies of Iranian oil altogether but a smaller list of buyers for Iranian oil, making Iran sell the oil at a discount. Saudi Arabia's and Libya's added production would bring more oil to the market. The impact will be larger on Europe because of the decline in the value of the euro, with Brent crude on a 12 month average basis costing 14% more now than in the peak price in 2008. By comparison in dollar terms the comparable figure is 4% higher for the U.S. At a price of Brent crude of $120 in 2012, according to Citigroup, energy costs would take up 9% of world GDP, putting pressure on a economic recovery in Europe and the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
Oil prices in the U.S. drop to $55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and $65 a barrel for Brent crude price. Earlier expectation of the impact of reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil shrinking global oil supplies have been reversed with increased production from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S.

Another new development that caused this reversal in sentiment is that the Trump administration granted waivers to some buyers of Iranian crude oil. The U.S. trade dispute with China has also added to this with lower growth forecasts. Unlike in previous years OPEC or Saudi Arabia cannot by itself shrink global supplies with production cuts. The U.S. and Russian output also plays a significant part.

LyrArc Article Gist
GDP expanded at 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Turkey Statistics Office. This follows a contraction by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016. For the full year the GDP growth is 2.9 percent, a decline from the 6.1% in 2015. In 2015 Turkey gained from lower oil prices. This was offset in 2016 by the politics in the region- the increased instability in the country following a crackdown on the opposition and media, internal conflict in the Kurdish region which appeared for a time to be leading to peaceful settlement. As a result tourism revenues declined by 30% and this was offset by increased government spending. The uncertainty before the referendum also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

LyrArc Article Gist
Government GDP figures show the GDP shrank by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015, the first such contraction in the economy since 2009. Household consumption was down 3.2%. The sharp decline in the value of the lira by 20% in 2016 makes imports costlier, in an economy dependent on consumption spending and tourism for higher GDP growth. Political uncertainty with instability in Turkey following a crackdown on opposition and media also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

LyrArc Article Gist
Finnish president Niinisto provides a new understanding of Mr. Putin and the thinking that led to the invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Niinisto has an advantage having spoken with Mr. Putin countless times says this report in WSJ, and spoke again to Mr. Putin on May 14 to tell him that Finland was planning to join NATO. Putin simply responded that Russia does not pose a threat and "you made a mistake." He says it was not the Finnish way to not call Putin and tell him directly, and that not doing so would be like sneaking away around the corner. Mr. Niinisto says WSJ, has a rare insight into the thinking that led to the behavior of Mr. Putin in launching the war. Here are some insights from this report by Adam O'Neal of WSJ. On the situation in Ukraine Niinisto says " I would be a lot more worried about Ukrainians than about how Russians feel." Mr. Putin's willingness to see Ukraine's industrial centers, its infrastructure and cities destroyed, turning them into moon craters in the east compares with the relative ease of life in Moscow, St Petersburg and other cities, cushioned by Russian oil and gas exports and financial reserves. As a student of Finland's long and violent history with Russia Mr. Niinisto has some unique insights into Russian thinking. He tells WSJ's Adam O'Neal  that if a Russian is angry, yes, be careful, but if he's calm, be even more careful. The Russian invasion of Finland led to loss of 200,000 lives in 1939-40, and another 250,000 Russian lives in fighting between 1941-1944. Finland has 300,000 men or women in military reserves and men between 18 years and 60 years are called up for military service with the Finnish Constitution requiring every citizen to contribute to national defense. Recently Finland ordered 64 F-35 fighter jets from the US. What led to the invasion of Ukraine by Mr. Putin? Niinisto says that "somehow Mr. Putin has a feeling that Russia was betrayed in the 90's by the West. Over time this thinking continued feeding the negativity says Niinisto and led to the thinking that Russia could be betrayed once more.  Another aspect of Mr. Putin which was covered during the last decade of relations with Ukraine in Lyrarc, was his perception that Ukraine under various leaders before Zelensky was basically led by corrupt leaders including one president he supported but lost power in the last decade. Mr. Putin saw protests in Kviv and Lviv that ousted a president he supported recently as orchestrated from outside. This led to thinking that Ukrainian nationalism did not exist and he believed that Kviv would not be defended and would fall easily within a week or weeks. As his nationalist perceptions and that of a small group that included his partner in office Mr. Medvedev became stronger in the last ten years Mr. Putin made the decision to take the option for invasion in the thinking that the response of the US and Germany would not be to support Ukraine with arms and other aid. The CDU and SPD was perceived as weak in Germany and Scholz not seen as able to cut down oil and gas imports to the EU. Biden was seen as not willing to stop Russia by taking on a difficult conflict because of China allying itself with Russia, considering China's interconnections with the American economy. The timing was seen as good considering that this level of dependence on oil and gas imports of Europe on Russia would never be the case after planned shifts to renewable energy. The Russian economy was cushioned by its $620 billion in reserves and by the world's need for energy even as the shift to renewable was taking place. This window my have induced Mr. Putin to take what appeared to be a rational decision that ignored the common feelings of humanity of risking the destruction of a brotherly people that spoke Russian, prayed in Orthodox churches, and where Russia as a state started in the year 1000. Cambridge historian Brendan Simms in his new book "Europe : The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the present," has shown all European powers susceptible of reasoning and calculation of this type in their wars since 1453 in the struggle for supremacy in Europe up to the present- the Portuguese, the Spanish, the Dutch, the British, the French, the Germans, the Russians, the Danes, the Swedes. This also led to British and French empires in Asia and Africa with subjugation of Asian and African people. The Second World War had created the perception that somehow this had changed after the loss of millions of lives- that was the perception of Merkel a pastor's daughter who had grown up in the former communist state of GDR in East Germany, and of SPD leader Steinmeier who felt strongly about the loss of lives from the Nazi invasion. Merkel and Steinmeier built the relationship of Germany with Russia that has collapsed under Germany's new leader Scholz and Habeck-Baerbock of the Greens party. Merkel and Steinmeier also built the trade relationship with China that also faces collapse with China's support of Russia under Mr. Jinping, and the unexpected shifts in Chinese leadership and policies from that pursued by premier Deng and his successors in 1990-2010 of interconnected economic links with US and EU. Mr. Scholz, the new chancellor of Germany has Brendan Simms book on Europe on his reading list for 2022 as he ponders over the lessons of 2022 and the pandemic. Mr. Biden with long experience in the Senate of the US has a memory and understanding of what happened since World War II, how America got to this point, and what it will have to do to bring back the American spirit to the Free World that America has led for most of the last two hundred years. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Commodities prices hit a low in June before the second Greece election on June 16, with lower unemployment numbers in the U.S. and growth of 6-7% in India and China. Still average prices of oil in 2012 of $115 a barrel are higher than the level in 2011. And corn prices dropping to $5.25 a bushel are still high compared with prices earler. Corn farmers in the U.S. are adding to acreage. The relatively lower prices also give more room for smaller stimulus by central banks to stimulate growth. Freeport-Mining CEO, Richard Atkinson said in a presentation that the growth is coming on top of a bigger baseline for China, India and Brazil. China's copper consumption went up by about 6 million tons a year, averaging 13% growth a year in the period 1995-2010. Now even with slower growth at 6% a year, by 2025 he estimates China's copper consumption at 9 million tons per year. This is a structural change that is supporting commodity prices, says Amrita Sen, analyst at Barclays Capital.

LyrArc Article Gist
The near collapse of Iran's state owned gas company following stricter Western sanctions and withdrawal of Total and other oil companies. Iran sits on top of the second largest gas reserves in the world but is able to export gas only to Turkey and Azerbaijan. Qatar which borders one of Iran's large gas fields is developing its side of the field with technology and investment from Shell and other foreign oil companies. The CEO of the company, Hamid Reza Araghi, told the Mehr News Agency that the company had declared bankruptcy, with debt of about $4 billion. Gas revenues have dropped to about $10 million a day and the company suffers from mismanagement.

LyrArc Article Gist
China passes the U.S. in OPEC oil imports, with daily average imports of 3.7 million barrels compared to 3.5 million barrels for the U.S., according to Wood Mackenzie.

LyrArc Article Gist
A final U.S. State Dept. review of the XL Keystone pipeline shows there will be no negative environmental impact. The amount of oil from oil sands will not be increased by the building of the pipeline. The final decision will be made by president Obama.

LyrArc Article Gist
Oil prices are forecast to remain above $100 a barrel in 2012 because of higher social spending in Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries after the democracy protests, and the threat of retaliation by Iran in the Straits of Hormuz. Iranian threats of retaliation for increased sanctions has embedded a $10-$20 premium in oil prices say some experts.

LyrArc Article Gist
The economic effects of US and German-French sanctions on Russia ar shown here in this Guardian article by Jim O'Neill, who helped coin the term BRICS that include Russia. The sanctions are likely to make the Russian economy even less significant than its current role in the world economy.  Renewable energy development and alternative use of LNG through new super terminals will likely be speeded up with new investments in Germany and the US. The result could be even faster depreciation of oil based assets for economies dependent on oil and gas exports. This would also contribute to the COP26 pledges for accelerated response to global warming. Western oil companies will also be put in a situation where an accelerated shift to renewables is seen as connected to less dependence on outside sources and so enhancing energy security. Productivity gains and gains in technology are also dependent on good relations with the economies of Europe and the US, Japan, for the rest of the world. This leaves economies that are left out in some form or other failing to grow up to their potential, a situation that accelerates over time and could be seen clearly in the next 5-10 years. This would impact growth rates and economic development in these countries and reverse years of gains in the last two decades.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Age ol trading patterns between UAE and Iran separated only by 70 miles of ocean and the US sanctions on exports of sensitive items to Iran.

LyrArc Article Gist
Higher oil production in Saudi Arabia in 2012 as the Saudis support U.S. sanctions against Iran.

LyrArc Article Gist
When experts say corporate earnings and balance sheets are healthy this is because they are speaking of the situation in aggregate. Companies that benefitted from the commodities boom like the oil companies and companies like Microsoft and Apple have hundreds of billions of dollars, but this is very deceptive and misleading. About two thirds of nonfinancial companies, 1600 companies, carry a junk rating according to S&P. How does this compare with earlier periods? Its up 50% from the beginning of the last bust in 2000 and 40% higher than in 1990. Also Wall Street hugely expanded the market for speculative floating rate loans with $1.2 trillion raised like this in the last 4 years to 2007, according to Thomson Reuters. And the junk bonds are much junkier. Between 2003 and 2007 lenders financed $194 billion worth of bonds in the bottom tier of non investment grades with B- or below. And that was twice the amount of the previous 4 years. Histoically it should be noted 23% of bonds in this group default within 3 yearsafter they are issued vs just 3% in the top 3% of junk. Which companies are likely to default? Amusement park operator Six Flags, construction products maker Georgia Gulf, trucking company Swift Transportation, and sports equipment maker Easton-Bell Sports. Private Equity owners who have loaded the companies they own with debt also could default. This includes real estate brokerage operator Realogy, newspaper company Tribune and pizza chain Uno Holdings. S&P's estimate that the default rate among US junk rated borrowers will jump from 1% last year to 4% this year but other experts estimate it at around 8%. And if history is any guide it will probably be in double digits. After the 2 lending booms the one in late 1980's for LBO's and commercial real estate and for telcom and tech in the late 1990's default rates reached double digits. And with a recession one expert Fridson of research service FridsonVision estimates default rates of upto 16% for two consecutive years considering the huge amount of debt that has built up....

LyrArc Article Gist
Mexico's Congress passes changes to the constitution and new oil legislation which will allow foreign companies to compete with state owned Pemex. Challenges remain in the form of creating transparent regulators to implement the legislation, and ensuring that the benefits of the increased investment in the oil industry benefit ordinary Mexicans through a higher growth rate, using cheaper natural gas to support the manufacturing sector, and additional revenues from the increased oil and gas production tha support health, education and infrastructure development.