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This report by Thomas Erdbrink of the NYT from Tehran, shows the Iranian economy almost at a standstill as sanctions are lifted in Jan. 2016- with little or no growth after years of western economic sanctions. Iranians in Tehran do no expect an immediate improvement in conditions after the lifting of sanctions. The expectation is that it will take years to undo the damage done by sanctions.

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Daniel Yergin of consultancy firm IHS describes the geopolitical disputes in the Middle East between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran that are leading to likely continued oversupply of oil in 2016, keeping prices in the $30-$40 range. Saudi Arabia is not likely to change its policy of going after market share, Venezuela is affected but lacks a voice in OPEC decisions, Russia continues its policies in Syria and Iraq under the Putin government affecting other Sunni states, and Iran following the lifting of sanctions is likely to ramp up supply to make up for its lost market share- all leading to an extended period of low prices. This situation benefits China, the European Union countries, India, Turkey and the U.S. in a period of slow economic growth in 2015-2016. Russia looks to use this period of low oil prices to shift to domestic industry after a period of rising imports when oil prices were high. The Saudis seeing their interests in the region threatened by Iran and Russia, and dissatisfied with the foreign policy of president Obama, see a policy of pushing for market share as appropriate in the current geopolitics of the region....

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Gold reaches $983 a troy ounce, nearing its all time high of $1003 of March 2008. Russia, China, Venezuela and other countries which have large dollar reserves are building up their gold holdings to reduce the risk of holding masssive dollar reserves which are going down in value. Investors are also buying up gold as a global liquidity cycle is taking hold, with the liquidity pumped in by the Federal Reserve to fight the credit freeze.

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Bill Spindle of the WSJ describes the Iranian Quds military organization led by Suleimani that operates alongside the Hezbollah organization in Lebanon as Iran intervenes in regional conflicts across borders. Using the militia and Quds Iran is supporting the Assad regime in Syria, and fighting Islamic State in Iraq. Quds has also supported Shiites in Yemen. The problem with the interventions may be that they may have created new problems from which Iran has gained little. The intervention on the side of the Assad regime created an opening for Sunnis supporting Islami State insurgency in both Syria and Iraq, creating another problem for Iran, and weakening the Shiite led government in Baghdad with the loss of Mosul Iraq's second largest city. The cost is in tens of billions of dollars for the intervention at a time when the Iranian economy is suffering from tighter sanctions because of an expanding nuclear development effort. Suleimani is head of the Quds military force, and Alaeddin Bouroujerdi is head of the foreign policy and national security committee in Iran's parliament, who says Iran is now a powerful force in the region. But at a heavy price and complicating the effort of Sunnis and Shiites to live side by side for centuries in the Middle East. There are no serious benefits for the Iranian people suffering from severe shortages at home, a devaluing currency, cost to subsidize other countries, getting into and exacerbating military conflicts. Prime minister Rouhani says- "Until when should our economy subsidize our policies? Lets have our foreign policy subsidize our economy, and see what happens." ...

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A recent Deutsche Bank study points to the pro-cyclical nature of oil prices in this decade where oil price increases do not lead to decreased worldwide consumption. The IEA forecast is for 1.64 million barrels of oil a day in increased coonsumption in 2013 compared to 2011, which hides a drop in consumption of 640,000 barrels a day in OECD countries. That is offset by higher demand in China, the Middle East and Russia. Middle East consumption is about 80% of consumption in China, and oil price increases lead to higher growth in these countries and Russia leading to increased oil consumption reinforcing a pro-cyclical cycle. What is not clearly understood is how this changes with weaker economic growth. Additional factor to consider is future increasing growth of oil consumption in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam and other developing countries that offset reductions in Chinese consumption as China's growth rate slows.

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Oil traders are pricing in much higher oil prices- with $150 not being inconceivable- because of Mideast unrest. They see this unrest playing out over a long period of time, and do not see this changing even if the Libyan situation returns to normal tomorrow. Saudi Arabia will need to price oil at $85-90 a barrel just to meet the economic demands for a growing population, says Rachel Ziemba, analyst at Roubini Global Economics. Saudi King Abdullah recently promised $150 billion in new housing, higher wages and other benefits to prevent protests. The fiscal pressures are growing in these countries. A $15-$20 premium for unrest is assigned by Paramount Options, a trader at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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Hubbard and Erdbrink report on U.S. president Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia to begin a new chapter in relations with the Gulf nations and the Saudis. Under president Obama the U.S. distanced itself from the Saudis and the Gulf nations, preferring to pursue a policy of closer relations with Iran and signing the Iran nuclear deal. This included a policy of staying out of Syria to the point of turning down a decision to deploy U.S. airpower to maintain no-fly zones to protect refugees. Syrian government forces fighting rebels were supported by Iran. The new policy is dictated by the new conditions in the Middle East. The U.S. has sought since the presidency of Reagan to balance the power relations in the region. With the nuclear deal signed and Iran respecting the deal according to independent reports, the U.S. allied with Iran in the battle against Islamic State in Iraq,  a shift was needed to balance the support provided to Iran by Russia which worsened the refugee crisis in Syria. The Republican party and Mr. Trump were critical of the Obama Iran policy during the nuclear deal negotiations. The safety of Israel is also a factor as non-state actors were supported by Iran threatening Israeli security. For these reasons the shift is an effort to rebalance the relations in the region. The arms deal in its size and president Trump's statement that Iran had "fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror," can be seen as this rebalancing. A business aspect of the large arms deal is that it will promote job growth in the defense industry in the U.S.. Other countries including Germany have seen growth in their defense industry. This is not the best way forward for the Middle East, yet it is a way the U.S. and nations in the region are adjusting to realities- the collapse of the Arab Spring from within and without the help from outside, the sectarian conflict arising from the Shiite pushback from Iran following the Baathist and Sunni control of Iraq which collapsed with the U.S.invasion, where the majority of people are Shiite yet with a strong Sunni presence. Elections brought Shiites in power, leading to a Sunni response in the form of Islami State caliphate move into Mosul, Iraq's second largest city after Baghdad. A decade of conflict and the efforts by the Bush administration ended in failure and sectarian conflict, resulting in the U.S. policy of rebalancing in favor of Iran to negotiate the nuclear deal. In this sense the arms deal does not solve anything. A similar rebalancing under Reagan by arming one side, followed by arming the other, led to involvement with ground forces under president Bush. It only leaves the region poor after years of sanctions against Iran to the point where a NYT reporter was not sure whether it was safe to fly from Tehran to Mashad with Iran Air because of the lack of spare parts for the airline. War torn, with millions of refugees in Syria and Iraq, the region remains broken in many ways, waiting for a sensible non sectarian view to prevail in the interest of the people in the region. The election of Rouhani in Iran by 57% of the vote is only a sign that young people in the region given a chance would opt for a different course in future. The rest of Asia has moved forward and shows a path that can be followed. ...

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Chevron CEO John Watson says the U.S. needs more affordable energy, and this means it needs to find more fossil fuels. It needs more oil gas and coal. He says the U.S. should take advantage of its own fossil fuel resources. People want strong environmental standards, but as Watson puts it, their top most priority is affordable energy which creates economic growth and jobs. He criticizes the Obama administration for not pushing ahead with developing of U.S. offshore oil, because BP's problems were not systemic and industry wide. He calls for dramatically increasing U.S. oil production, and doing this immediately. Worldwide Chevron plans to invest $26 billion for its exploration budget, and plans to drill in Australia, Western Africa, Gulf of Thailand and other locations. Watson points out that the dynamics of oil production are affected by two factors, price and technology. With current prices at over $100 a barrel more oil is accessible. At these prices new technologies can make it possible to use existing older wells to increase production. He cites the example of Bakersfield, where steam flooding is helping get 70 to 80 barrels out of every 100 barrels in the ground, when in the past Chevron could only get 10-20 barrels of oil. Another technology he mentions is hydrofracking for producing large and cheap supplies of natural gas. Chevron acquired Atlas Energy for $3.2 billion in 2010 to enter this market. Watson's overall emphasis is on the U.S. going for affordable energy and affordable conservation that will create economic growth and a better future....

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The IMF's Martin Cerisola, who headed a delegation to Iran on Jan. 25- Feb 8, 2014, has put out a report on the country's economy saying serious risks lie ahead. The inflation rate fell from 45% annualized rate in July 2013 to about 30% in Dec 2013, offering a short respite with a slight easing of the sanctions regime, but Cerisola says Iran remains in serious danger of "external shocks," that could affect Iran's currency, the rial. Cerisola says in his report that the reduced subsidies for fuel and food, poorly funded social programs, and the "marked deterioration in the external environment stemming from the intensification of trade and financial sanctions, have weakened the economy."

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U.S. companies have decided to wait out the conflict in Libya till a clear picture emerges. Mufson gives a good account of the history of Libya's tumultuous relationships with western oil companies over 3 decades. Nason Saleri, former head of reservoir management at Saudi Aramco, now head of Houston based Quantum Reservoir Impact, says oil companies have decided not to get involved until the situation stabilizes. Oil companies such as ConocoPhillips attended a meeting of the U.S.-Libya Business Council where representatives of the Benghazi based coalition presented. Ali Tarhouni, leading economic policymaker for the Benghazi coalition says oil contracts will be honored. Saleri says western oil companies are preparing for the time when a new government takes charge in Libya after the end of the Ghadafi regime. His view is that once things settle down and a new government is in charge he sees the potential of enhancing the percentage of oil from known reservoirs. The reserves are there in Libya to stabilize production to earlier levels and to increase it says Saleri....

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The reduction in tensions between the U.S. and Iran after the beginning of talks in Istanbul in April 2012. Other factors include differences within Iranian leadership and government leading to more flexible positions and differences within the Israeli leadership. Iranian and Israeli public opinion is moving in the direction of moderate positions.

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This report in the NYT by Halbfinger and Kershner shows a Israel that is divided in its views about prime minister Netanyahu. In early 2018 with the police report on the investigation into Mr. Netanyahu on campaign finances, half of Israelis support Netanyahu, with the other half thinking that Netanyahu should resign. Mr. Netanyahu has dismissed the investigation as full of holes like Swiss cheese. His supporters see it as part of a left wing conspiracy including state prosecutors and police. Supporters of Netanyahu see him as having improved Israel's security in its region, people who oppose him see him as being too divisive, using divisive rhetoric to improve his own position.  Younger voters in particular have a distaste for divisive politics practiced under Netanyahu, which extends to the supporters of Israel in America, and the policies leading to delaying of the peace project.  That peace project is also seen as part of the nation's mission to seek peace with its immediate neighbors, an unfinished project for Israel as a nation. After many years in office Netanyahu's party lacks the dynamic vision needed and it now appears only to see remaining in office as its goal, according to this NYT report. This is happening at a time when a larger centrist constituency is developing in Israel as most of the moderates are outside government. ...