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Bayer AG CEO Marijn Dekkers talks to the Journal's Geoffrey Rogow about the company's pharmaceuticals business and job retention. Dekkers says profits are reduced by the tight budgets of European governments and the pressure on pricing. He cites the 16% mandatory rebate in Germany on prescriptions. For Bayer diversification through the chemicals business offers a way to handle the ups and downs in the pharmaceuical business with patent expiration. He is not interested in acquisitions because of the high premium involved and the difficulty of recovering this for investors. Bayer like other drug companies has extensive operations in China. Bayer is training salespersons in top and second tier Chinese cities. It has a program to train 10,000 physicians in rural areas of China working with the local government. Dekkers makes an interesting point about jobs and job retention in the U.S. He says a lot of jobs were outsourced in the 1990's and its difficult to bring them back. Germany has done a better job with job retention with "kurzarbeit" and other programs working in partnership with industry. In his view this could have been managed better in the U.S. with active programs such as this in the last two decades....

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Britain's Treasury chief Osborne faces a difficult period as the economy shows flat growth for 2012 and 2013. The targets he set for eliminating the structural deficit or budget gap by April 2017 may need to be shifted to 2018. The target for net debt to decline as a percentage of GDP by 2015 may also be unachievable if growth is flat in the coming year. An accounting change in how profit from the Bank of England's bond buying program are shown is designed to reduce Treasury's borrowing and bring Britain closer to this target. Osborne says Britain's actions for austerity measures, spending cuts and increasing taxes have helped keep interest rates low to pay off debt.

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China's trade surplus rose to $457 billion at an annual rate in the 4th quarter, 50% bigger than in the same period for 2007. Exports dropped by 13% in the 4th quarter but imports dropped faster by 21%, which explains the growing trade surplus. With the stimulus spending kicking in in 2010 imports should pick up just as exports decelerate fast, reversing the direction of the trade surplus.

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Krugman questions whether the assumptions behind the austerity policies are true- that they would inspire confidence in economic recovery, or that in the absence of austerity policies borrowing costs would go through the roof. The recent events in Holland with the collapse of the government in the Netherlands- when a party leader supporting the government said he did not want to hurt pensioners in the Netherlands just to satisfy German opinion- and the mood in France with economic anxiety vote going to Marie Le Pen and Francois Hollande in the first round of presidential elections, shows that very little confidence has been created. High unemployment and economic anxiety are leading to a reappraisal of austerity cuts that depress the economy and reduce tax revenues, but Krugman says no changes are taking place to correct these policies. This is true for Spain with its high unemployment, and Britain which now has two quarters of negative growth.

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Francois Hollande is elected French president. Greek voters vote against the austerity measures by giving a majority of the votes to parties on the far right and far left.

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Failure by EU leaders to take early and decisive action to reduce Greece's debt to sustainable levels in 2009. This was when the IMF report by Dutchman Bob Traa blew the cover off the Greek coverup of deteriorated finances. Policy missteps included ECB president Trichet and other EU leaders pushing austerity measures and not taking needed tough action on reducing the debt. By November 2011 a 50% reduction in debt with bondholders taking the losses is not enough to correct the situation. Greece's debt is discounted by 70% by Nov 2011. Analysts estimate an 85% reduction in Greek debt being necessary for Greece to pull through without a default.

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This Journal editorial says both Hollande and Sarkozy fail to address the issue of competitiveness in the French economy. Much of the election campaign in April 2012 has focussed on taxes on higher incomes and too little on measures that would improve competitiveness. Some of the action taken in recent years such as raising the retirement age to 62 from 60 are being opposed by Hollande, which gives the electon a fairy tale quality says the Journal.

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Antonis Samaras visits Bavaria and meets with Christian Social Union leader Horst Seehofer, who offers his support to Greece's recovery efforts and plans a return visit to Greece. After the meeting, Seehofer said "today, we've turned over a new leaf," and Samaras said "I've received a lot of appreciation for our efforts."

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John Taylor looks one step ahead of the March 2012 Greece bailout and sets up the most plausible scenario for the future. He says the risks of contagion were always exaggerated from the beginning- a planned default or restructuring of debt such as happened in Argentina in 2001, does not have the contagion risks associated with a chaotic and unplanned default as in Russia in 1998. Predicability in policy makes a huge difference, says Taylor. The European banks which stood to lose from writedowns exaggerated the fears of contagion- a process that always occurs for people who are adversely affected by writedowns- resulting in top officials in the European Union delaying the unavoidable serious restructuring. It was not until Chancellor Merkel handed Charles Dallara, who negotiated for the European banks, a note stating a demand for 50% bondholder writedown, on October 27, 2011, at EU headquarters in Brussels, did any serious writedown of debt begin. Merkel told Dallara: "this is my last offer." The July 2011 summit by contrast had only a 10% bondholder writedown in the agreement, when insolvency not illiquidity was the real issue. Walker Forelle and Meichtry, give a detailed account of what happened in the Wall Street Journal, Dec. 30, 2011. The important thing for Greece, says Taylor, is for what the IMF calls "growth enhancing structural reforms" - greater reliance on private markets, incentives, rule of law. He says this bailout won't work because IMF growth forecasts do not reflect the rapid shrinking of the Greek economy. Antonis Samaras, leader of the major opposition party, is in favor of pro-growth measures and has stated his desire to change the agreement. The 130 billion euro bailout provides 90 billion euros for recapitalizing Greece's banks, and financing the budget. This puts Greece in a situation where the political leaders win voter support by discarding the conditions from the Northern EU nations and come with a plan that is better suited for Greece. The EU in this scenario would cut off further bailout funds to Greece. Taylor sees this as the better outcome for Greece than the current situation, which leaves Greece no hope for growth, and also for the EU by getting out of bailouts that have little prospect of working. It would be difficult but doable for Greece says Taylor, because interest payments would be low and Greek banks would be recapitalized after the current March 2012 bailout. ...

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Criticism of the EU's handling of the Greece crisis by IMF officials in a report. The report says the actions taken for debt restructuring in 2012 should have come much earlier to reduce the debt burden and the size of austerity measures in Greece. Similiar criticism has been voiced by president Hollande of France and in editorials by the WSJ. President Samaras of Greece says the sharp cuts in spending reduced potential for growth in the economy.

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With China's automobile market declining for the fifth month in a row, and trade tensions rising, it now appears that carmakers such as Ford expanded too quickly in the Chinese market. Ford, Peugeot, and Hyundai appear to have poorly times their expansion in China, expanding at the tail end of the Chinese boom just ahead of the new Trump administration's efforts to challenge China's lopsided trade balance.  It has become so bad that this report shows workers at a Peugeot factory in China spending their days washing floors and attending Communist political study sessions at work. At a Ford plant workers shifts are reduced to a couple of days a month. Sales grew 3% in 2017 and declined 2% in the first 11 months of 2018, after increases of 14% in previous years taking the market to 28 million in a dizzying ride as it surpassed the U.S. sales of 17.5 million. Overcapacity is a problem in China with the aggressive expansion. There is capacity to make 43 million cars, but will produce 29 million in 2018, according to PwC, consulting firm. Ford meanwhile put in a new plant in Harbin in 2017, expanding its capacity to 1.6 million a year, but sales peaked at 1.27 million in 2016, and are down 6% in 2017, and 34% in 2018 to about 700,000. While there are no layoffs some workers are making only $220 monthly, forcing them to take second jobs as cab drivers or couriers. Suzuki decided to quit in 2018 exiting China entirely just so it would not pile up losses in what is now a market that is way overblown from the boom years. Electric vehicle production in the pipeline of about 7.5 million vehicles will compound this problem further with 32 new plants planned by 26 firms.   ...

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The German and French positions on solutions to the eurozone debt crisis are in conflict. As a result the negotiations between France's Sarkozy and Germany's Merkel are deadlocked. The basic differences revolve around three basic issues. Germany wants to see a lasting solution in which Greece debt is restructured so that banks and other creditors that loaned money to Greece voluntarily take losses so that Greece's debt can be reduced to a sustainable level of no more than 50% of what it is now. France, the ECB and the French banks do not want to restructure Greek debt in this manner beyond the 21% reduction in value of debt under the July 2011 agreement. The voluntary reduction in Greek debt by the banks would prevent a default by Greece and unsettling of the financial markets. France fears market contagion from the restructuring of Greece debt that would place pressure on French banks as the value of the Greek, Spanish and Italian sovereign debt French banks hold declines in value. That would require a major recapitalization of French banks and additional cuts to the French budget. Additional twists to the negotiations are that Sarkozy is unpopular in France with elections six months away. For this reason Sarkozy would prefer to recapitalize after 9 months. A way to get around the need for more deficit cutting (austerity measures) in France, is for the European Financial Stability Fund to be able to borrow money from the European Central bank. The ECB can print euros in that situation. Germany's chancellor Merkel has to consider German public opinion and experts from the German central bank, who are adamantly against using the ECB to print money and Germany committing itself to bankrolling most of the effort. Germany wants France to use its own money to recapitalize French banks, with Germany only responsible for recapitalizing its banks. Merkel told her parliamentary caucus in Berlin that "the path is closed for using the European Central Bank to ease liquidity problems." Because of Germany's insistence on financial soundness for any solution, France being in the more difficult financial position and Sarkozy facing elections willing to come up with a short term fix, and the unwillingness of French and German banks to take the losses necessary for a lasting solution, the Germans see a real solution taking a long time. ...

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The current economic expansion in the U.S. in April 2014 is at 58 months from the beginning of recovery in 2009. In this exceptional account Josh Zombrun of WSJ compares the current expansion to previous expansions since 1950, with the views of experts such as Stan Hall of the NBER committee, which studies turning points. This expansion is forecast to go for 90 months into 2016 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and 102 months into 2017 by the CBO. Sooner or later, says Stan Hall, some adverse unpredictable event takes place that ends the expansion. So far the expansion has been slow and protracted, as predicted by economists Reinhart and Rogoff from previous financial crises in the last century, giving it room to grow as corporate earnings continue to improve. Fed chairwoman's sense of slack in the economy also provides room for employment and incomes to grow in the later stages of the expansion. This is good news for the emerging market economies such as India and China, and for the European Union, faced with slowing growth. So how does this expansion compare with earlier ones. The expansion of the 1991-2001 of the tech boom was 120 months, 1961-1969 of the Sixties 106 months, 1982-1990 of the Reagan era 92 months. The controversial one on shaky foundations is the recent housing boom 2001-2007 of 73 months ending in a huge bust with the 2008 financial crisis. The shorter expansions are the 1975-1980 Post-Vietnam one for 58 months, and the 1970-1973 spurt before the OPEC price surge. Figures are from the NBER, CBO and the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections....

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In a shift from statements at earlier summits which focussed on fiscal restraint, the Camp David summit continued the "firm committment to fiscal consolidation," yet emphasized jobs and economic growth as "imperative." There is new flexibility to address needs for economic growth and no specific timetables for fiscal balance as in previous summits. Obama had many one to one encounters with the other leaders. He discussed the euro crisis with Cameron while working out on a treadmill, and watched the Champions League soccer final between Chelsea and Bayern Munich with Merkel and Cameron. Each leader of the G-8, Harper of Canada, Monti of Italy, Hollande of France, Medvedev of Russia, Cameron of Britain, Noda of Japan, Merkel of Germany, was assigned a cabin in the rustic wooded setting of Camp David's mountains. A special effort was made to see that Germany's Merkel did not feel isolated in the setting because of the growing sentiment that austerity policies pushed by Germany are not working. On Iran, Obama stated that he was "hopeful that we can resolve this issue in a peaceful fashion that recognizes their sovereignty, but also recognizes their responsibilities."...

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Francois Hollande, Socialist candidate for president in France, has led the Socialist party for many years. He started his career as a junior politician in the Mitterand government, and regards Mitterand his mentor. Another mentor is Jacques Delours, who was president of the European Commission. He has many years of training, and has persevered thorughout with a certain sense of humility in the midst of colleagues and politicians in France with larger egos. That inner strength and courage has emerged in the recent campaign appearances and the final debate with Sarkozy in April 2012. He has shown this in the recent campaign by not overstating expectations as he looks at the long term, and at the same time not understating when courage demanded a stronger statement. He has taken timely and effective positions in the current debate of austerity vs growth, or growth coupled with restraint in fiscal spending vs austerity, that is raging in Europe. He was quick to call the situation in Greece, a failure of governance in Europe, as well as a failure of governance in Greece. With the new voices of Premier Monti in Italy and ECB president Draghi from Italy, pushing for growth coupled with fiscal responsibility, a president Hollande in France, would add another voice to European aspirations for growth in the debate with Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats in Germany. ...

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The lower house of the French parliament approved the EU budget discipline treaty that limits deficits to 3% of GDP. It passed with a large majority of 477 votes to 70. About 284 members of the left parties voted for the bill. Sarkozy had pushed for passage of this treaty and Hollande agreed to it in his talks with chancellor Merkel of Germany. At the same time Germany and France agreed on promoting growth measures. The new French budget for 2013 reflects this committment to reducing the deficit to 3%. France's deficit declines from 4.5% in 2012 to 3% in 2013 under the new budget. It does this with shared sacrifices and higher corporate taxes and without sharp cuts in government spending that could hurt the economy.

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In an interview with the Wall Street Journal Deutschland, Hans Werner Sinn, head of the Ifo Institute in Germany, says Greece's bondholders are overly exaggerating the effects on the eurozone of an exit by Greece. He sees it in the best interests of Greece to improve its competitiveness and return to growth by going back to the drachma. Just to get to the level of Turkey Greece would need to reduce prices by 31%, which is impossible to do within the eurozone without risking a complete breakdown in civil order. The best way to use the 130 billion euro second bailout package is to use it to recapitalize its banking system, says Sinn. Sinn says Portugal's faces the risk of a debt crisis following the crisis in Greece.

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Richard Portes of the London Business School provides two good reasons why the EU's decision to adopt the French Banking Federation's proposal for rollovers with 10% interest costs is a serious mistake. It doubles the interest costs from 4-6% to 10% with 2% Greek GDP growth and makes debt servicing untenable. Portes says the real Brady Plan from the 1980's included a 35-40% bondholders haircut. Deals of this type have a precedent- in Mexico in 1988 and in Argentina in 2001 such bond exchanges were soon followed by deals that placed bondholder haricuts on creditors. The lesson from Latin America in the 1980's, says Portes, is that the burdens of servicing a debt of such proportions under onerous conditions only extinguishes the enterprise, investment and productive capabilities of the particular country trying to service that debt, making the debt even less serviceable. See the Wall Street Journal's editorial on this deal which it calls "The French Deception." The terms sound like Greek to the editors leaving a sense that French banks are only saying "gimme." The only benefit achieved may be putting off the problem and avoiding contagion to Portugal and Spain. Yet this is not that much of a benefit when one realizes that the problem has not gone away, and is likely to look much worse six or nine months from now....

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The riots in Athens as the Greek parliament voted to support the passage of an EU plan of austerity cuts, including a 22% cut in the minimum wage, pension cuts and large cuts in the number of government employees. The Popular Orthodox Rally party in the governing Greek coalition withdrew its support, 22 members of the Socialist party and 21 members of the New Democracy party in parliament opposed the measures. Elections are planned for April, 2012. Antonio Samaras, head of the New Democracy party, told parliament that he supported the measure only so that Greece could continue using the euro and have "the possibility tomorrow to negotiate and change the policy that is being imposed on us today."

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Alan Blinder, a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University, looks at explanations for low productivity growth since 2010, and points to the most likely reason- the lack of technological progress with the kind of impact that the personal computer and other innovations had in the period 1995-2005. Facebook, Google, Amazon and Apple tech innovation has more impact on consumers than on the industrial economy and production. Lower investment since 2010 with the financial crisis could have added to this, but to a smaller degree, says Blinder. Blinder even points to some hours of work being taken up by workers using Facebook, Twitter and other similiar services. The notion strange to Silicon Valley is supported that tech progress, dynamism and entrepreneurship may have actually declined to some extent. Intel's Andy Grove, no stranger to early innovations supported this notion around 2008, saying he saw less innovation of the type he was familiar with, more refinements than breakthroughs by startups in Silicon Valley. Grove was critical of the decline in manufacturing in the U.S., which is likely to have hurt productivity growth....

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GDP growth in the eurozone was 0.3% for the 4th quarter 2014. For 2014 eurozone GDP growth was 1.4%, according to Eurostat. Growth in GDP for Germany was 0.7% for the 4th quarter and 2.8% for 2014. Retail sales in December were particularly good in Spain and Germany, with sales up 2.8% for the eurozone over the prior year. Italy's GDP growth was stagnant and France's was 0.1% for the 4th quarter, showing that Germany and Spain are leading the way for eurozone recovery.