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Mead points out that the world with an effective U.S. leadership based on democracy and the values we cherish is needed now more than ever, after the failures of the Bush and Obama administrations to provide the kind of balanced leadership all Americans can stand behind. A world without an effective and enlightened leadership from the U.S, is one in which the world could fall apart in regional rivalry, one in which the hundreds of millions of people in the poorer parts of India, China, Russia, Brazil, and other developing countries of the world, will have less opportunity to meet their aspirations for a better life. This is because a focus on development requires less regional rivalry and because serious missteps can reverse in a few years decades of economic progress as shown in the 2008 global financial crisis. More so because we live in an increasingly interdependent global economy. It is also the kind of world where suppression of freedoms and suppression of the opposition as in China and Russia, provides a wrong kind of message, a world in which we or our children would not want to live in. Russia, India and China, are too driven by rivalry and lack the deep experience to go it alone, multipolar is more likely to end up being multipolar rivalry leading to a race to the bottom, which would be bad for all, especially for the poor in Asia and the developing world. The 2008 crisis showed what some serious economic mistakes could do to employment and incomes in the world with output dropping by a third in most places. Political missteps could lead to a slippery slope of this magnitude but more difficult to correct. Greater participation in the political process and more enlightened leadership is needed in all countries to allow many voices and greater interaction across boundaries, focussing on the dangers of such multipolar rivalries. The world of the G-7 is already moving to the G-20 where many voices are heard and serious discussion of differences takes place, but participatory is different from multipolar....

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The U.S. National Security Agency is going through four separate reviews- one by a White House internal review team, by the Review Group for Intelligence and Communications Technology setup by president Obama in August 2013, by the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board setup in 2004, and by the Senate Intelligence Committee. Sources say the head of the agency Gen. Alexander offered to resign but this was not accepted because it would be seen as a win for Snowden. Proposals being considered are having a civilian head the agency, setting up a process where a determination is made balancing the potential value of the information with any political implications. Decisionmakers at the NSA are trained to be apolitical in collecting intelligence making it difficult for them to make such determinations. The recording of conversations on Merkel's mobile phone was made at the request of the State Department. Mr Ledgett, a senior NSA official says there are 36,000 pages of "requirements" or intelligence requests from all parts of the U.S. government, including State, Defense, and Commerce. What to do with such requests and how to assess them will now be important questions for NSA. One of the risks of the NSA revelations is that individual countries will impose restrictions on the internet to protect information leading to a fragmentation of the Worldwide Web. U.S. relations with Iran have remained stuck in the original atmosphere of the period under U.S. president Carter in the late seventies with the Islamic revolution with the most recent president Ahmadinejad being one of the activists from that period, the isolation and sanctions have also created a siege mentality in the Islamic republic. The U.S. and the world has changed since that period after over three decades. The Obama administration sees an opportunity to gradually resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis by relaxing tensions and giving small wins to moderates in Iran like Mr Rouhani. Rouhani may see a way out for Iran's isolation and falling behind other countries in the region in developing its oil resources and economy. The moves also helps to reduce new sectarian tensions in the Middle East as the different countries take sides in the Syria....

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Economists at the IMF estimate that the public debt of the leading 10 industrialized countries would reach 114% of GDP by 2014, from 78% today. The governments then owe about $50,000 for each person in the country. Unlike World War II this situation is not temporary, because of the pension and health care costs of a population that is getting older. So what is to be done? Without the stimulus, the deep and prolonged recession would lead to greater damage to the finances of these countries. But continued in this manner the government would crowd out private investment and lead to lower economic growth. In some countries, Greece, Ireland, Italy Portugal and Spain it might lead to default, in other countries the real cost of the debt may be reduced through inflation. In the USA yields on 10 year Treasuries reached about 4% on June 10th, in December it was about 2%, a consequence of the economic recovery. If interest rates are allowed to rise too fast, it might abort the economic recovery. A rise in taxes is also not the answer, because in Europe the taxes are already at 40%, in America they are around 30%. But raising consumption taxes at the time when the economy was fragile, aborted a recovery in Japan during Japan's earlier crisis decade. A caution signal that says fiscal tightening can backfire, especially some years after a banking crisis when things are still in a weak condition. Some steps that can be taken are raising the retirement age, which would cut pension costs as people work longer and would boost tax revenues, and eliminating the tax deduction for home mortgage payments in the US. Its important to build credibility that the government and the legislative bodies are serious about controlling the finances and acting with prudence. In America wasteful health care spending is a priority, as this would reduce the burden on public finances considerably , and should be as much of a priority for the new Obama administration, as providing universal health care. With today's finances its not something that can be put off....

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The yuan has gained 16% since the peg to the dollar ended in 2005. For years China has resisted letting its currency appreciate significantly, why the change of heart now? Its seen as a positive thing by China's leaders to let the yuan appreciate and its now part of Chinese policymaking. First it helps keep inflation down, keeps the rising prices of imports energy, commodities, and food under control as they are denominated in USA dollars. Second it sends a signal to manufacturers to move up to more sophisticated value added products that are not sensitive to pricing and can accomodate a stronger yuan, because its precisely the manufacturers who operate on thin margins and make lower end products who will go close down. They also cost the economy in terms of higher pollution and damage to the environment in a way that higher tech products do not. And China wants to undo or limit the damage to its environment. Third by lowering rebates or eliminating rebates and letting the curtrency appreciate its changing the emphasis from exports to domestic markets and domestic consumption. This combined with new laws on wages and benefits is designed to promote domestic consumption which can better carry the burden of economic growth than exports because of the slowing down of the developed western economies especially the USA which is going through what may be a severe and protracted downturn. It also helps that China need no longer be portrayed as taking advantage of free trade through huge surpluses. Its constructive as it will help rebalance the world trading system as the USA can improve its trade deficit and China can accelerate its growth by importing more western machinery and technology and not have to depend on precarious export markets for economic growth that it badly depends on to improve the living conditions of hundreds of millions of its people. By building a large middle class of consumers china can continue growth using its domestic markets at a pace that is still very healthy and not likely to build inflationary pressures which may be a welcome thing....

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A discussion on the drying up of capital available to the financial institutions for deleveraging, and the way deveraging puts even more pressure on home prices and lower consumer spending also puts pressure on housing prices by delaying a housing recovery. And the pros and cons of letting Lehman Brothers fail. Sovereign wealth funds are losing money on their investments as stock prices of these firms fall, and their investments are worth much less, resulting in criticism at home. Korean economy has problems of its own so regulators in Korea were not eager to support state owned Korea Development Bank taking a large stake in Lehman. When Mr Fuld, Lehman's CEO stood out for a better deal they may have flagged their concerns to KDB negotiators. And middle eastern sovereign funds are looking for better opportunities in other parts of the world like India, Asia or closer to home. Private Equity funds which have about $450 billion are not able to increase stakes above 25% because of regulations that make them bank holding companies subject to regulators when they go above that limit. Private equity funds like Blackstone and Carlyle are asking for these restrictions to be lifted to be able to invest more in capital starved financial institutions. Meanwhile with share prices plummeting with Lehman losing 90% of its share price it will be harder to raise capital. Merrill lost 17% of its share price in one day so it affects other institutions. Regarding the pros and cons of letting a firm fail the Fed's and Treasury's fear is that markets today are bound together by complex financial instrments like credit default swaps and certain money market instruments that firms and regulators have limited experience handling in a crisis and the concern is that letting a firm fail might have ripple effects. Regulators are addressing the clearing and settling of these instruments but still need time to finish. And there is no formal procedure for disposing off the assets of an investment bank if it fails. And behind all this is the realization as Lawrence Meyer, a former Fed governor, who is vice Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors LLC puts it : "There's no trend of improvement. It's not improving even slowly." ...

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U.S. S&P 500 index stocks now show a correlation of 80%, based on one-month trailing movements, according to Credit Suisse. This exceeds the correlation of 73% reached during the crisis in 2008, and shows the large influence of macroeconomic factors on stock movements.

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A World Bank 2008 Report concluded that Brazil's current state of education would lead to its falling behind other developing economies, and act as a constraint on growth. Brazil's 15 year old chidren came in 49th out of 56 countries on the reading exam for the Program for International Student Assessment, with more than half scoring in the test's bottom reading level in 2006, with scores in math and science worse than that. Of the 25 million workers who could join the work force in 2010, about 22% are not considered qualified for the labor market, according to a government report. The World Bank Report says Brazil stands to miss out on the "demographic window," in which increasing numbers of younger workers make the economy more productive, unless it addresses problems in education.

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Humor about how BMW and Mercedes completely missed the nature of this economic downturn in their forecasts, of continuing upbeat sales forecasts till about a month ago even though a lot of bad news has been coming in for some time. Is something like this happening in the Chinese economy, where things have been going strong for so long that forecasts have been toned down to 9% for GDP growth, even though car sales are flat for recent months and are expected to be flat or declining for 2009. If there is a decline in sales next year in auto sales is it possible that 9% GDP growth may be too optimistic for 2009. Would it somehwhere in the range of 6-9%?

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A bill in the U.S. Senate in October 2011, which has bipartisan support, would push for China to correct an unfair trade advantage from keeping the value of the yuan low. The bill requires retaliatory tariffs for countries that have "misaligned" currency. This makes it possible for the U.S. Treasury Department to take action even if it finds no currency manipulation by China. This is a new approach as the U.S. Congress struggles to restore a level playing field in international trade.

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The U.S. Senate voted 63 to 35 passing legislation that forces the U.S. government to seek tariffs and other action against countries with "misaligned" currencies."

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The Economist cites estimates from the Bank of England showing Britain's national output peaking at 1.5 trillion pounds in 2007 and not likely to return to that level till 2015. It points to fears of a lost decade. Meanwhile debt is rising from 600 billion pounds in 2008 to 1.1 trillion in 2012, making reducing the debt to GDP ratio by 2017 even more difficult. Lower growth affects tax revenues even as social benefit costs increase. Part of the problem is that from 2009-2010 to 2011-2012 public sector net investment declined from 48.5 billion pounds to 28 billion pounds. The Economist suggests Chancellor Osborne take up an additional investment in infrastructure of 28 billion pounds, even borrowing 14 billion pounds in the bond markets if needed, as a prudent step to revive growth. Small improvements in rail, roads and bridges could make up for a lack of large projects. Other suggestions include expanding the "funding for lending" scheme with banks to get capital to small business, finding more savings in the National Health Service, and changing the way Britain taxes development land that remains undeveloped. Britain, now joins, Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, in the failure of austerity measures alone creating a return to economic growth and lower deficits. In 2013 improving competitiveness and boosting economic growth become critical following years of austerity measures....

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The FDIC acknowledges that it has not been able to get banks interested in a pilot program called the Legacy Loans Program. That program was designed to give the banks an opportunity to sell off $1 billion of troubled mortgages. Since November with the efforts of the Troubled Asset Program under Secretary Paulson to have the banks sell off these assets in an auction or some other way, the whole issue of getting the toxic or troubled assets off the books of the banks has been effectively shelved. The Obama administration's version of this was the Geithner Public Private Partnership program, but this like Paulson's TARP never really got off the ground. Instead several things have happened that have enabled banks to show higher profits and improve stock prices. The period from March 2009 to June 2009, a period of several months has seen bank stock prices recover and banks are now able to raise capital on their own from investors. The government's "stress tests" gave the banks credibility with investors and they were designed not to be so stringent as to affect confidence. The mark to market rule has also been relaxed so that banks are no longer required to show these toxic assets at prices that reflect large losses. Bank executives also are wary of the new executive compensation rules of the government. All of these things have combined to create asituation where some confidence has been restored, but at the same time experts are pointing out that the underlying problems of an estimated $1 trillion in troubled assets remains. Banks are even less likely to want to part with these assets at lower prices now that some semblence of confidence is returning, as they would then have to show large losses. What this implies is that if the economy suffered a setback, these problems would return and be just as intractable as ever....

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The impact of the resignation of Alexei Kudrin, Russia's Finance Minister, on financial markets and the value of the ruble.

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Brazil's currency, the Real, moved up to 1.7 per 1 US dollar, on the eve of the Presidential election in the first week of October 2010. Brazil's overnight interest rate of 10.75% attracts speculative foreign capital in the carry trade, where investors boorow cheaply in the US and Japan and invest it in Brazil. The central bank has kept these rates high to finance a current account deficit of $46 billion in 2010 -which is forecast to hit $60 billion in 2011- and to finance a high level of government spending. This spending is likely to continue with Ms Rousseff as the new President, as Rousseff plans to invest in infrastructure such as bullet trains and river dams, as well as the FIFA world cup and the Olympics. Government spending has increased by 18% so far in 2010. Exporters are affected by the artificially high value of the Brazilian real. Goldman Sachs economist, Alberto Ramos, says the real is overvalued by 55% compared to its fair value of 2.65 to 1 US dollar, based on a computer model that incorporates factors such as trade, inflation and productivity. Sao Paulo is already the most expensive city in the Americas, according to one survey....

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On Monday August 8, 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial Averages went down by 634 points and closed below 11,000 points. This is not far from the 10,165 level of the DJIA on August 27, 2010. It was on August 27, 2010 that Fed chairman Ben Bernanke made the speech at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole conference about the strategy for a QE II. Its about the time for this years Jackson Hole conference and the gains in the stock market are melting away. The DJIA closed at 12810 by April 29, 2011, then went below 11,000 by August 8, 2011. With higher inflation the Fed's options are limited.

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The IMF report on Italy in July 2012 says Italy faces another year of recession. Debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to reach 126% in 2013. One bright spot is that Italy is expected to post a primary surplus by 2013- that is government revenues will cover promised services, excluding interest payments on oustanding bonds of $2 trillion. Because of the recession small shocks could change the outlook says the IMF, and it emphasized the importance of the changes being made to the labor market and for improving competitiveness. These changes need to be implemented early because of elections expected in spring 2013. A key concern is borrowing rates which are near 7% for Italy and Spain. The European Stability Mechanism, the rescue fund, was authorized to make purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds in the June 2012 summit. The ESM becomes operational in the summer of 2012, after the German Constitutional Court makes its ruling about it being legal and after ratification by national governments....

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This BBC report gives the reasons for the success of the Leave campaign getting 51% of the vote- the votes of older voters particularly in the south, southwest, Midlands and the north east with 78% of people over 65 voting and 54% of 25-34 year olds voting in the 2015 general election. Three of five voters over 65 wanted to Leave, and voters over 55 favored leaving the EU. Other important factors was the voter discontent, the failure of the message on the economy of the Remain campaign, the 350 million British pounds that the Leave campaign said Britain would have extra to spend on the NHS every week as this was what Britain could free up by leaving the EU was the best remembered number in the campaign.  Another important factor is the failure of Labor Party supporters to come out to support the Remain campaign in large enough numbers for an effort led by Conservative party leader Cameron. 

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The BBC looks at some of the claims made by president Trump about India's rapid progress in delivering services to the people in electricity, sanitation, roads infrastructure, cooking gas, internet connections. BBC confirms that the economy size is now 6 times that in 2000, as Mr. Trump stated on his visit to Ahmedabad. It was in terms of the total value of all goods and services in the economy or GDP at $477 billion (IMF figures) in 2000. In 2019  it is $2,940 billion.  270 million fewer people were living in poverty in 2016, this is confirmed in a UN report. Here is the list for services as checked by The BBC. 1. Providing electricity to every one of the 600,000 villages in India. By 2014 most of the villages were electrified- at 96%. It is defined as having schools, health centres and 10% of households having electricity in each village. 2. About 600 million people having access to toilets under the Clean India mission launched in 2014. 100 million new toilets were built. 3. 70 million women were given access to cooking gas. 80 million new connections were built. 4.  320 million new internet subscribers. The figure is low about 600 million total internet subscribers. 5. It is true that infrastructure building is moving quickly says the BBC. About 10,000 kms were built in 2018-19 double that in 2013-2014 under a previous administration. The Mumbai Metro is mentioned in the WSJ as a project that has made remarkable progress. A bullet train project is moving ahead with Japanese financing and technological help from Mumbai to Ahmedabad.  Access to banking accounts and direct deposit of government transfer payments to all Indians is another project. Healthcare access through health care payments directly for health care costs incurred for low income families is another more recent project to reduce the uncertainty and improve finances of poorer citizens. ...