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Former Texas Senator Kay Hutchinson, America's new ambassador to NATO, offers this spirited defense of NATO in an NYT op-ed. She points out that when it comes to European defense and need to revitalize NATO there is no difference between president Trump, Rex Tillerson, Gen. Jim Mattis at the Defense Department, and senators of the Republican and Democratic parties. Rex Tillerson, U.S. Secretary of State, made a similar statement by visiting a war memorial in Italy recently. Chancellor Merkel has made similar statements in her visit to the Baltic Republics. Behind the revitalization of NATO remains another goal to spread the burden of defense evenly so that the U.S. is not bearing a disproportionate responsibility.  Here Hutchinson reminds readers that if all 29 NATO members met the 2014 defense spending pledge - to spend 2% of GDP on defense and 20% of each defense budget on modernizing capabilities- $100 billion in defense funding would have been created for 2016. Hutchinson says the European Defense Initiative will be funded with $4.8 billion for strengthening defenses in Eastern Europe. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg is taking the lead in ensuring NATO funding goals are met. ...

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This inside account of the events leading to the cancellation of the meeting with Kim Jong Un of North Korea shows how quickly the idea of a meeting between the two leaders unraveled following Trump's statements about the Libyan example being followed by North Korea. Soon after the suggestion for a Trump meeting was made by Kim Jong Un to South Korean officials Mr Trump picked up and endorsed the idea. North Korea made a public announcement critical of Mr. Trump  and National Security Adviser John Bolton took this up with Mr. Trump at 10 pm on May 23, 2018.  This report says Mr. Trump fearing that Kim Jong Un was looking for a way to back out of the talks acted first- possibly sensing that Mr. Trump could be made to look weak and small if the situation continued to develop and the U.S. is seen as a desperate suitor. The meeting had been set for June 12 in Singapore.  In the end the South Koreans and the Japanese were the last to learn about the cancellation and were taken by surprise by Trump's decision. ...

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As this editorial in the Hindu points out enabling land acquisition for industry is still one of major problems facing India as it struggles to modernize its economy and create manufacturing jobs. Amendments to the land acquisition law was a top priority of the Modi government in its first year in 2014-2015. The effort stalled with Opposition resistance and opposition of farmers groups. Even as India moves up in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business index it still remains below the top 50. The prime minister of Singapore on a visit to India made it clear that these problems restrict the level of investment in India and the speed of its modernization effort. As the Hindu editorial points out the need to win farmers votes has prevented further moves to amend land acquisition laws so that industrial development can move ahead. This can be costly for India if it means fewer jobs created, and costly for the government in its effort to win votes without being able to show the results of modernization in new development, new infrastructure and new jobs created.     ...

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A new Nuclear Fuel Bank has private funding of $50 million from Warren Buffett, and additional funding from Kuwait, US, the EU, Norway, and the UAE. The total funding so far is $157 million. With this initial funding the International Atomic Agency has setup a global nuclear fuel bank that countries can turn to for developing nuclear power. At this time more countries are turning to nuclear power as a source of energy supplies. The development of nuclear supplies and purifying uranium also lends itself to the making of nuclear weapons. By providing an independent source the IAE agency provides a way to remove the ambiguity present in the development of nuclear energy. As the idea of atomic fuel banks is gaining hold Rusia also has set up a bank. When enriched at lower levels uranium can be used for nuclear energy. When enriched at higher levels this becomes a fuel for making atomic bombs. Which is why nuclear experts want to see the uranium turned into fuel rods as quickly as possible, because it is hard to turn the rods into weapons. This money will be enough to buy 80 tons of fuel- enough for refueling one reactor....

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GM plans to bring 5 to 10 Cadillac models to China by 2016. It plans to build a factory for Cadillacs in China. Even as auto sales are slowing down in China in 2012, sales of luxury and premium cars are growing rapidly. Infiniti, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Tata's Jaguar-Land Rover, and now GM are competing for sales to China's growing affluent class. According to IHS Global Insight, China's auto sales slowed to 2.5% growth in 2011, yet sales of premium car sales increased by 32%. With sales slowing in Europe and the U.S., car manufacturers are focussing on the luxury segment in China to boost profits. BMW's sales chief, Ian Robertson, says sales will slow in coming quarters from the 32% growth rate of 2011, but he still expects double digit growth for premium cars in future years. In making its large investments in China Ford executives said it expected a growth in China's car market of 5% over the next decade. BMW plans to increase production to 200,000 cars after opening its second plant in 2011, with capacity to ramp up to 300,000 a year....

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Pakistan's GDP growth is expected to be 4% in 2012, an increase from 2% in 2011. Foreign exchange reserves are up to $18 billion. Repayments in 2015 to the IMF will be a quarter of the payment in 2012, says Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh. Tax collections are up 24% for the first 9 months of the fiscal year 2012. Remittances from Pakistanis aborad are up 21% to $9.7 billion and exports up 5.5% over the $25 billion exports for 2011. In an WSJ op-ed, April 16, 2012, Michael Boskin,who helped negotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement for the elder President Bush, says it is time for a free trade agreement between India and Pakistan. Shaikh says he expects to see trade with India up from the insignifcant levels of $2.7 billion in 2012 to $10 billion by 2015. Boskin sees the potential for trade at $50 billion based on trade models. This would help change the landscape in the South Asian region after decades of neglect, strife and conflicts and is long overdue to benefit the billion people on the subcontinent....

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Egypt's presidential candidate Mohammed Morsi, leads in the first round of presidential elections over Amr Moussa. He has no ties with the Mubarak regime and comes from the Muslim Brotherhood. Morsi is an engineer trained in Egypt and the U.S. Morsi graduated with bachelors and masters degree in engineering from Cairo University, and a PhD. from the University of Southern California in 1982. From 1982 to 1985, he was a professor at California State University at Northridge, California. In 1985 he returned to teach at a university in Egypt. He was elected to parliament as an independent candidate as the Mubark regime banned the Muslim Brotherhood. In 2011 he was elected head of the Freedom and Justice Party and made its candidate for president. Because of the severe economic problems facing Egypt- a demographic explosion of young people with few job opportunities, enough foreign reserves to finance a limited period of food and essential imports and dependent on the IMF for financing, neglected infrastructure development during decades of misrule under Mubarak- a candidate with an advanced engineering background trained in the U.S. could bring the right set of skills to the job of rebuilding Egypt. ...

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Speaking to journalists after a meeting with the Irish prime Minister Leo Varadkar, the European Council's president Donald Tusk warned of a "special place in hell" for politicians who promoted Brexit "without even a sketch of a plan." Tusk was also critical of Jeremy Corbyn saying there was a leadership void at the heart of the Remain movement. "Today there is no political force and no effective leadership for Remain."  Tusk said there are no alternative arrangements that could replace the backstop, saying "the backstop is needed as a guarantee, A safety net is not a safety net if it can be destroyed by one party." The backstop is a way to keep peace in Northern Ireland. The Irish prime minister and Mr. Tusk circulated a "thank you card" from a Dublin family thanking the EU for its solidarity. The card said Ireland was drawing strength from the words of EU leaders. It said "Britain does not care for peace in Northern Ireland.  To them it's a nuisance." ...

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Apple's new upgraded operating system makes a change this fall which finally gives users the right to opt out of web tracking activity by apps. It will ask users if they want their web activity tracked. All users of apps have to do is to click No. 

This change implemented by Apple gives users the privacy they need without a constant barrage of ads based on web tracking activity. After the pandemic quieter times are needed for people to think about the essential things that add joy in their lives without the constant disruptive effect of ads. It has become so ubiquitous that people have lost memory that this was not always the way previous generations lived. For people under 20 they have never known anything different.

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As seen in the campaigns of Gretchen Whitmer for Governor western Michigan and Kalamazoo are critical in 2024. Michelle Obama joins Kamala Harris at an event in Kalamazoo in the closing days of the campaign. 

Speaking about women's health and pregnancies Michelle Obama was passionate in her words in Kalamazoo speaking to men and women-

"Consider the harm that is done when a government keeps revoking the basic care from its women."

“I am asking y’all, from the core of my being, to take our lives seriously. If we don’t get this election right, your wife, your daughter, your mother, we as women will become collateral damage to your rage.”

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Estimates are for a 9% increase for Apple laptops and iphones Made in China if Apple passes through the price increase following DJT's 54% tariff on Chinese imports. Instead Apple may decide to be patriotic and reduce the huge margins it has charged American customers for three decades now as part of its $500 billion plan to invest in Made in the USA, after waffling and delay for so so long. Even after the first term of DJT in 2016 Apple has waited 8 years to not move some of the production home to avoid an overconcentration in China. This is a sign of its management not having listened to the mood of America preferring huge profit margins to doing the right thing, literally waiting till the last minute.

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What is happening here appears to be that the whole American system of government as it operates today has some serious weaknesses, which if exposed in a critical situation- and with some life threatening situation for an industry group- can subvert the whole system and the economic life of the country. The serious weaknesses are the lobbying of Congress that is legal, and the financing of Congressmen and Senators election campaigns by industry groups which is legal. The life threatening situation for an industry group are the accounting rules and nuances that require that the banking and financial industry that holds these mortgage home loans, if they change one loan to lower payments in one geographic area, have to then show the lowered value of that loan in their books on all other loans of that type in that geographic area. Without this the banks and financial institutions were already or close to insolvent with losses of over $1 trillion. With that accounting change the industry losses would make large parts of the industry insolvent. This becomes incentive enough to fight loan modifications at all costs for the industry, and explains why Hope for Homeowners has generated only 25 loan modifications when it was advertised to generate 400,000. This creates a once in a lifetime or once in a hundred year chance of the whole system of democratic government working to destroy the economic life of the country. How? By providing a big enough reason for the banking and financial industry to fight loan modifications almost to the death, against even their better judgement when in late 2008 and January 2009 this would mean suicide for the economic life of the country, and the chance that they would both go down into the depths, the industry and the boat that is the American economy. This is what this story tells us, all key Congressmen and Senators were taken into their fold by the lobbying groups with large donations to their election funds, both Republican and Democrat, Shelby, Frank, Dodd, Durbin, and their aides. After Hope for Homeowners program failed, the new Hope Now program was again designed with the connivance of lawmakers in both parties by the banking industry representatives. It was designed so it would largely fail by not doing enough to keep homeowners in their homes. The industry faced with a life threatening situation did the wrong thing. Instead of saying lets get the government to help to change the accounting rule, and advocating that the government join the industry to share the losses and go out aggressively to restructure the loans in a three way loss sharing arrangement with homeowners, government and the industry, the industry instead decided to stick its head in the sand and let nobody do anything period. To do this it had to create the illusion that somehow the problem would fix itself with housing recovering on its own. In addition to the donations many Republicans like Preston, Secretary of HUD with oversight of FHA, and others in the Bush administration, may have had the mistaken notion that somehow the housing industry would recover without much help, that the economy was basically still healthy, that the crisis was not as bad as it appeared, that freemarket principles were still the best guide, and that toxic assets of banks and foreclosures were two entirely different things, with foreclosures for those who had borrowed recklessly not a bad thing....

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Response to question whether this $100 a barrel oil is possible is yes, if something big happens in the oil flows from middle east or if there is a Katrina style hurricane. Reason being that oil demand has not slackened up either from Asia or from the U.S. automobiles. How would this impact the USA, Europe, Asia? The impact on Japan and Europe would be less because of the high efficiency in use energy use. This could slowdown the U.S. economy considerably as gasoline approaches $5 a barrel. India would be hurt with a drop in GDP growth from 8% to 6% according to an estimate by Crisil, Mumbai. It would affect Chinese growth also but the main impact would be indirect through a decline in the U.S. market for Chinese made products. Russia would gain and economic growth there could accelerate further from 6% to 9% according to estimate by MDM Bank, Moscow.

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Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF says that as government borrowing around the world surges, interest rates will go up. Governments borrow by selling bonds to investors, and to attract investors the government competes with stock and corporate bond markets for investor's money, leading to rising yields for investors. As the confidence has returned to corporate bond markets this is already happening. From the end of 2008. the yield on the benchmark 10 year Treasury note has increased by one and ahalf percentage points, rising to 3.54% from 2%, the sharpest upward movement in 15 years. In Germany the yield on German 10 year bonds has also risen, rising to 3.57% from 2.93%. Similiarly British bond yields have risen to 3.78% from 3.41%. Congressional Budget Office estimates are that net government debt for the USA will rise to 65% of GDP at the end of fiscal 2010, from 41% at the end of fiscal 2008. In 2009 and 2010 the US government will sell $5 trillion in new debt, according to Citigroup. A decade from now the government's outstanding debt could equal 82% of GDP, or about $17 trillion. Every one point rise in interest rates costs the Treasury $50 billion annually over a few years, and Kenneth Rogoff estimates that this could reach $170 billion annually if the average yield on 10 year Treasury note goes up to 4.7%, as the Congressional Budget Office estimates. This will dampen the effects of stimulus spending. It is a big issue says Rogoff. A year ago under old policy and assumptions before the financial crisis the Congressional Budget Office projected outstanding debt at $5.3 trillion in 10 years. Now the estimate is $17 trillion, which is triple the old number and an increase of $11 trillion. A recovering economy would make these numbers less relevant. But with struggling industries like autos and banks needing more help from the government, and with consumers having to reduce a mountain of debt, a weak economy for a long time and small growth for a decade would make this a story that won't go away. Rogoff says its like what happened to the subprime borrowers, people assuming that the funding is always going to be there. In 2009 and 2010 Citigroup says, the Euro zone countries will sell nearly 1.6 trillion euros or $2.6 trillion in new debt, and Britain will offer 490 billion pounds or $799 billion in new debt. Over the next decade this would slow Europe's recovery and prolong the downturn. Britain faces a bigger problem in the near term as Britain's governmetn debt equals 55% of GDP, and Standard and Poors estimates it could approach 100% by 2013. South America and Eastern Europe will also face the situation of rising rates. Asian countries like China with lower levels of debt are in a better situation, IMF's Blanchard says....

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Fiat divided itself into 2 companies on Jan 1, 2011, to separate its car and truck businesses. Fiat SpA covers the car operations. Fiat SpA CEO Marchionne, says Fiat could lift its stake from the current 20% to over 50% if Chrysler decides to go to the stock market in an IPO in 2011.

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The constructive contribution made by the G-20 meetings of leaders towards building agreement on economic and other policies for peace and progress in the global economy. The meetings were especially useful for coordinating policy and addressing issues arising in the global economy after the 2008 financial crisis. Here Li Baodong, China's vice minister for international organizations and conferences, international economic affairs, describes the path ahead: IMF reforms implementation, better coordination of macroeconomic policies, pursuing the anti-protectionist and free trade policies with further support to the WTO and ministerial MC9 meeting in Bali in Dec. 2013, and infrastructure financing proposals for developing countries on the agenda at the St Petersburg, Russia, G-2- meeting in Sept. 2013. Baodong says the mechanism called the Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth as part of the G-20 meetings is a major achievement. Each G-20 economy submits it macroeconomic policy plan for a Mutual Assessment Process under this arrangement. The progress from the Bretton Woods financial architecture to the new arrangement- from the G-6 to the G-20 to include developing countries from India to Mexico and Brazil- is another major achievement, not fully recognized by the public, says Baodong. Interestingly Baodong makes particular mention to global rebalancing, rather than pushing what he calls the impossible task of increasing demand to get growth. This is a realization coming to China's economic policymakers under the new Jinping-Keqiang administration after the overly aggressive effort to stimulate demand in the 2009-2011 Stimulus, and the ensuing financial problems in the banking and credit system. It is indicative of the policy shift and its implementation underway in China in 2013-2015....

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Gallup found last summer that only 16% of Americans polled had "quite a lot" of confidence in newspapers, in its decades long polling of "Confidence in Institutions." For TV news only 11% trust it. Bret Stephens of NYT says the right approach to give marginalized communities a voice is to create more diverse newsrooms not let objectivity be eroded. He reminds people that in a democracy its not just about reporting, it's also about listening, listening to all the people. He quotes Arthur Miller- "A good newspaper, I suppose, is a nation talking to itself." President Biden showed this in his State of the Union address, by working hard to listen to what the nation is saying about itself, about communities all across America that were for too long being ignored while jobs were sent overseas and communities suffered. For far too long, a period that stretched into four decades, turning them into the "invisible" people. Ninety years after Carl Sandburg's "The People, Yes" the task is one of restoring that voice of the people of America. About Lincoln, Sandburg wrote that he said Yes to the paradoxes of democracy, Yes to the hopes of government, No to debauchery of the public mind, Yes to people struggling in the middle of illusions, which of the faiths and illusions would he or she choose for his portion of the light, to take one out of the wilderness. If death was in the air, so was birth.   ...

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This discussion on reinventing oneself to try a second career at age 50 or 60 after years spent working on professional careers shows the nature of this road. Much of it involves doing something creative, something that is fulfilling and not boring, and often this involves giving of one's creative potential doing good and giving back. It is a bumpy road though and most people do not realize that it involves trial and error and finding the right kind of work or activity of interest and aptitude. Most of what is written makes it look easy and glamorous, yet it involves slogging through obstacles, carrying a level of humility with you, and working with young people. Sociologist Sara Lawrence-Lightfoot in her book "The Third Chapter" describes the period that follows as an intermission which is marked by some chaotic experiments, to withstand emotion of being unstructured as if on a boat in high seas without navigational devices. Psychologist John Kounos says it is more important to get more sleep and dream take walks in nature, an do any activity that is fun, allow the mind to wander about in unknown ways. Here it is the heart and intutition that speaks and from which one derives inspiration, not the brain and intellect, say others who have tried to chart new paths that have provided major contributions to science, technology and fields related to public service. It is a kind of problem solving in which there is little room for the ego because of the ever winding road. ...

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The cooperation announced between India and Britain on the experiment to look at one grid between countries in different time zones could be a game changer in the way new technologies have already achieved in making solar less costly than fossil fuel. Embrace of new technologies is essential for achieving net zero emissions. India first proposed connecting solar energy across countries and time zones at the International Solar Alliance in 2018. If a way can be found to integrate the grid across time zones the problems of solar energy could be tackled effectively. Storage would not be needed in the way it is now as the solar energy can be sent to other areas with the demand. And the equally vexing problem of supply can be solved as the regions such as Spain could be generating solar energy when the sun had set in India. It is ambitious but it also brings in scientists and engineers from Europe, America, India and Japan to tackle the problem. There is also the opportunity to build on one discovery to make another scientific discovery in the way advances have happened in medicine and science.  And nothing about net zero is not ambitious. One of the lessons Modi learned early in Gujarat is that experiments are needed and to never rule out new ideas. In some of his speeches he describes the early experiments with electricity and solar energy in Gujarat that led to more ambitious efforts over time, and eventually to where solar targets like the one made at COP26 Glasgow of 500 gigawatts by 2030 are now within reach. ...

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The U.S. trade deficit with China was declining till the coronavirus hit in February. Now it is back on the way up, a warning signal for the Trump administration as it seeks to stop sending American wealth out of the country in an utterly disproportionate way of $346 billion in just 2019 after taking action on tariffs and renegotiating trade agreements.  Imports grew 11% in July to $231 billion. While exports increased but not as much by 8.1% to $168 billion in July, still well below February/s $209 billion. That leaves a trade gap of $63 billion. This is the largest trade deficit since July 2008. The U.S. trade deficit is a major issue and is watched carefully as the Trump administration sets a goal of rebalancing world trade so that the U.S. no longer runs such large trade deficits with China, and Germany, and does not shift wealth overseas. The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2019 was $346 billion, with Japan and Germany it is much smaller close to $70 billion for each country. The Trump administration goal is to all out reduce this deficit through trade agreements and other actions that stop the current outflow of U.S. wealth overseas by $1 billion a day to just one country. For this it seek a level playing field which means other countries have to face tariffs if they unfairly subsidize their industries or violate labor rights for unfair competition, or in other ways seek to unfairly gain an advantage over the U.S. including through transfer of technologies from the U.S. ...

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Corruption is not a necessary factor for a market economy, it is one of its ills that if left uncontrolled or unregulated risks the downfall of the entire market system with loss of confidence among the people in a market system. This BBC report shows the staggering sum of $44 billion taken out of Saigon Commercial Bank. The report says 93% of loans  given by the bank went to Truong My Lan who set up the bank by merging 3 smaller banks, and shows the brazenness and the scale of the corruption. My Lan started with a market stall during Vietnam's shift to a state driven market economy in 1986 like China, and gradually acquired hotels and other property. Nguyen Phu Trong is the General Secretary of the Communist Party since 2011 and president 2018-2021. The risks to the Communist Party of such corruption have become evident and Nguyen Phu Trong as leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam started his campaign against corruption in 2016 after pro business prime ministers of the past had led to Saigon's economy being left unregulated after 1986 in then Doi Moi reforms. It is Vietnam- and China's- lack of familiarity or experience with the market system that has led to tolerance of outright corruption in the past. In no way does a market system need any corruption of any sort to function that damages the credibility of the system with the people. As it is insidious and can affect the whole economy it requires vigilance, oversight and regulatory checks. ...

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Roger McNamee, an early investor in Google and Facebook, writes this opinion piece in the Guardian newspaper saying that there are very serious problems in the way the "addiction" created by Facebook and Google products is affecting children. Lyrarc.com also points out that the reading and literacy scores in the U.S. and other countries are affected by how the new technology is used by digital gatekeepers. See our FAQ. Tim Berners Lee calls this a massive distraction for learning and youngsters. Melinda Gates has cited this as a problem she has faced in her own effort to raise her children.  Here is the main problem as stated by McNamee- of the millions of content pieces that can be shown the digital gatekeepers show only the content that is fit for their business model, and the best content from an educational point of view whether literacy, reading skills, civic literacy, all types of literacy and knowledge, is not only not the priority but is for the most part absent. He points out that that if not for the advertising business model this would be different- the focus could shift to experiences that educate, enrich and inspire users to better lives and better lifestyles. The smartphone has become pervasive in everyday lives to an astonishing degree- about 150 times a day with 2000 swipes and touches- to the point that it is changing the way people live and think without their realizing it. With it come new risks to the way we live and what we believe, like never before in history. ...

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This Economist magazine editorial says the Republican plan for health care with its roll back of Medicaid expansion by limiting funding to states after 2020, and by scaling back subsidies especially for older Americans and not basing them on income levels, is likely to have its own problems just as the Affordable Care Act. One concern is that keeping healthy people in the market with a mandate that everyone have insurance is present but in a milder form with premiums going up by 30% in one year if they change their mind. There is concern that this may not work among insurers leading to an increase in premiums, pricing people out of the market in "a death spiral." This could lead to more people being priced out of the market as premiums rise. About 12 million people were added to Medicaid by increasing eligibility level to $16400, or 138% of poverty line- this reduced the uninsured from 16% in 2010 to 8.8% today. The Economist concludes that the Republican health care bill has its own problems, and that this bill does not clear up the problems in Obamacare by substituting Ryancare as the Republican bill is called. Peggy Noonan writing in the WSJ says this may have negative consequences for the new Republican base shift to populist support. Critics on the right like Rand Paul see even the reduced subsidies as an entitlement program, yet the Republicans can only change parts of the Affordable Care Act as they need 60 votes in the Senate where they only have a small majority.   ...

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Macron started out in the Socialist Party in Amiens, France. After going to elite schooling he joins the Socialist Party ministry of Francois Hollande. As Minister of the Economy he rises rapidly to replace Hollande with his own party called the Movement that he sets up and within a year wins presidential elections. The rapid rise, the lack of his Movement party having much experience and put together quickly with new younger people, his aloof presidency, and a lack of connection with the problems brought on by the deindustrialisation of France as production shifts to China, the problems of lack of work and cost of living in smaller towns in France, lead to Macron's loss of popularity. His party won only 10% of the vote in EU elections and 20% in the first round of Assembly elections in 2024. He is now allied with Sarkozy's Les Republicains, the very party he sought to replace by calling it old school and no longer relevant.  A small faction of the Les Republicains shifts out to ally with the National Rally of Le Pen and together the 2 parties seek a majority or near majority in the Assembly to take the prime minister position under Macron. The result would be a too young at 28 years Bardella as PM and the Socialist Alliance a close second in the National Assembly. Macron would have to come to terms with the Socialists he had abandoned to run the country and appoint Oliver Faure as prime minister if a second round gives his Movement and the Socialists over 50% of the vote. ...