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Theresa May, Britain's Home Secretary in the Cameron government, is a candidate for prime minister with the planned resignation of David Cameron by the fall of 2016. May was first elected to parliament in 1997 from Maidenhead, a town west of London. She was educated at Oxford University, worked in financial services and the Bank of England, before entering politics. She is known for hard work, a direct approach, and candor on policy issues. During a annual party convention she told Conservative party members that "our base is too narrow, and so occasionally are our sympathies," adding that people called Conservatives as the "nasty party." This was the period when Blair's Third Way was popular and Labor Party was in power. A daughter of a clergy man, she presents a rather austere image but reassuring in turbulent times with a down to earth and patient manner.  Her sports hero is a cricketer Geoffrey Boycott, known for taking long patient batting stands on the cricket  grounds- something Britain needs as it faces long and difficult negotiations with the European Union.  During the EU referendum she supported Cameron and the Stay campaign but quietly, so that she can be seen as the Unity candidate for the deeply divided Conservative Party. On immigration  she was as Home Secretary responsible for one of the difficult issues of the Brexit campaign- with net immigration at 330,000 in 2015 exceeding the 100,000 target set by Cameron. That she retains confidence from all segments of the party, as well as her education, experience, and resilience, may provide some of the "calm and composed" manner that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called for in the Brexit negotiation. ...

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Yuka Hayashi describes the remarkable comeback of prime minister Shinzo Abe in Japan, his "Japan is Back," strategy and its personal overtones. He describes a visit- by Japanese known for taking that second or third chance and making it work through difficulties- to the prime ministers residence for discussion on the theme of "the second chance." The premier tells the visitors that Walt Disney would never have been heard of if he had not tried the sixth time after five failures, and not succeeded in Japan, which has a risk and failure averse business environment. Encouraging risk taking to setup new ventures and open up new frontiers and markets is part of the growth strategy for Japan. His personal struggle with ulcerative colitis during the period of his first term as prime minister, and the new drug discoveries that made it possible for him to recover, give Abe a fresh burst of energy this time. His story and Japan's story now coincide. Abe says the mission of the new LDP is to make sure that talent now flows from mature industries to the industries of the future....

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Consumer prices rose 0.4% in June 2013, in early signs that the policies of the Abe administration against deflation are working.

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This WSJ report looks at the situation in American cities where black people suffer disproportionately from the lack of resources to build better lives. Detroit, Milwaukee, St. Paul and St Louis are some of the worst hit cities in the lack of decent housing in the cities. Lenders once used redlining during the Depression era when most of the white population was still in the city so that the areas with black people were burdened with more restrictions and higher rates on loans. This report shows that the situation has changed little after the 1950's after 70 years of alternating Republican and Democratic administrations.   Now that most of the wealth and the white population has left the city of Detroit the population has declined from about 1.8 million to about 700,000. Only 1700 mortgages were made in the city because banks do not make money on tiny mortgages with the declining value of houses in black areas of the city. Black residents are largely shut out of financing, making home ownership harder, says this WSJ report.. Banks made subprime loans in the city and other cities in the U.S. before 2008 with politicians in both political parties supporting this in the name of home ownership. But these loans lacked financial due diligence as loans were made without attention to lender ability to pay off mortgages. After 2008 a financial crisis and higher unemployment hit the U.S. economy from the impact of these bad mortgages packaged and sold as assets. These loans ended up with foreclosure on homes leading to a drop in home ownership from 50% to 40% after a slight increase from 50%. Lacking genuine good intentions with sound financial sense these intentions of improving home ownership fell by the way side, worsening instead of improving things. The pandemic has hit black people and cities particularly hard. With the situation in Detroit continuing to languish from a lack of resources and a system that is failing, says this report in the WSJ.  The loss of manufacturing jobs has hurt black Americans particularly hard and a reversal of the manufacturing decline in the U.S. of the past three decades is needed for the situation to improve. This loss of manufacturing jobs has only increased the gap between the white and black unemployment rates in urban areas of the U.S., as it has also increased the gap in unemployment rates between white professionals with college degrees and whites lacking college education.  This ripping apart of the social fabric is a problem also seen in Europe with decline in manufacturing and other  problems leading to economic decay, coupled with housing and other issues inside cities.      ...

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Core consumer price index was up 1.3% in December 2013 from the prior year, according to government information. For 2013 the index was up 0.4%, the first increase in 5 years. The Bank of Japan's target is 2% inflation. The ratio of available jobs to applicants increased to 1.03 showing 103 jobs for every 100 job seekers- the first surplus of available jobs since 2007. The jobless rate declined to 3.7% in Dec. 2013, down from 4% in Nov. 2013. A planned sales tax increase to 8% from 5% to tackle the high government debt level goes into effect in April 2014, which is expected to reduce consumer spending.

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What oil prices are doing to the redistribution of wealth across the globe. How rich and poor countries are coping. Money going to gasoline is still only 4% of disposable income of U.S. households and the USA hasn't lost its addiction to large vehicles, though there has been a moderate shift to smaller cars and SUV's. Chinese demand keeps growing. Fuel Economy standards are only now being changed and few alternatives are emerging quickly enough to make a difference in the short run. Though a worldwide recessionary climate could change things, no major change is expected. Airlines and the auto industry will be the most affected industries. Global warming and CO2 emissions will be a factor in evaluating how well these alternative are working. With oil and gas prices high, unfortunately coal use is increasing both in China and elsewhere. And ethanol hasn't won popularity because it uses up scarce resources of land, water and energy. A big change is the shift to most of the action going to government oil companies of developing countries, which are much larger now and have the resources to handle what the oil majors did before. Western oil service companies are working with government oil companies bringing access to technology....

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Ridership in public transportton system is increasing significantly. Light rail in Charlotte sees a 34 % increase, Caltrains sees a 9% increase, South Florida Regional Transportation Authority sees a 20 increase in ridership, in Denver up 8%. The increases are higher in the South and West. According to the American Public Transportation Association every public transportation system in America is seein this increase even when there are fare increases and a slowing economy. But can public transit expand? Its financed by sales tax receipts and government funding, and costs of steel, electricity and gasoline are way up so its proving quite difficult, especially with slowing sales tax receipts.

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Hernando De Soto, a prominent economist, heads the Institute for Liberty and Democracy. He has an intimate knowledge of the workings of the Egyptian economy, and describes the socio-economic marginalization of large parts of Egyptian society as Economic Apartheid. Simply put Egypt has fallen behind the times, way behind the economic progress in large developing countries.The Institute was hired by the Egyptian government in 1997, with the financial support of the US Agency for International Development, to look into what reforms were needed. It presented its 1000 page report in 2004- after years of work involving 120 Egyptian and Peruvian technicians, participation of 300 local leaders and interviews with thousands of ordinary people- to the Egyptian cabinet. The then Finance Minister Hassanein supported it and the cabinet approved it. What followed was a cabinet shakeup, and blocking of any reforms by hidden interests wanting to protect the status quo. De Soto's objective was to find out how many people were marginalized in Egypt, and how much of the economy operated outside the legal system- small business that did not have the protection of property rights or access to normal business tools and credit, that makes businesses grow. He found that 9.6 million people were employed in this sector operating "extralegally" with no protections. This being the largest sector of employment in Egypt. His action plan was intended to remove the legal impediments to these people and businesses urban and rural, so that they could grow. He says the value of these businesses outside legal protections is $248 billion or 30 times larger than the total value on the Cairo stock exchange, and 55 times greater than all the foreign direct investment in Egypt since 1800 including Suez Canal and Aswan Dam. De Soto says that because of burdensome, discriminatory and bad laws it takes 500 days to open a small bakery, getting a legal title on a vacant piece of land would take 10 years of red tape. This barrier of bad laws, poorly trained bureaucrats, inertia of the status quo, prevents people from legalizing their property and business. As a result whereas one of these types of small businesses is now India's largest company called Reliance Industries, and another Infosys is the second largest software company, most Egyptian enterprises are stuck being small and relatively poor, and do not generate jobs for the demographic surge of young people. De Soto's point is that Egypt will need good leadership to pull off this task of legal reform, and democracy alone will not be enough. Empowering the large majority of the Egyptian people operating outside the legal protections will mean giving property rights for $400 billion of assets, De Soto says. And this would unlock an amount of capital hundreds of times larger than what foreign direct investment and aid has brought to the country....

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Serious concern about lower consumer spending in the U.K that would reduce growth and reduce government tax receipts. The unemployment rate has remained at 7.6% for 22 months. Wage levels are not keeping up with inflation of about 4.5%. The increase in the sales tax from 17.5% to 20% has added three quarters of one percent to the inflation rate, according to the National Statistics Office. VocaLink says annual wage growth in the three months through May 2011 was 1.8%, much lower than the inflation rate. Deep spending cuts are going into effect in 2011-2012, and about 300,000 jobs would be lost in the public sector with spending cuts by 2015. The IMF has reduced its estimate for growth in the U.K. to 1.5% from 1.7%. At the same time the Bank of England is under pressure to increase the interest rate of 0.5% (which is a record low), to control inflation. Britain under prime minister Cameron plans to cut government spending from 47% of GDP to 40% of GDP over six years. This will take 6 years of spending cuts, something even a previous prime minister Margaret Thatcher was not able to do. The government's Office of Budget Responsibility predicts a drop in the deficit from 11% of GDP to 7.9% by March 2012. Yet a lot depends on government tax receipts which in turn depend on economic growth. Britain showed a large deficit of 10 billion pounds in April 2011, and the situation is fraught with a high degree of uncertainty....

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The Economist cites figures showing Canada lost 500,000 manufacturing jobs since 2005, with employment in manufacturing down to 1.7 million by 2013. From 2000 to 2013 manufacturing's share of GDP declined from 18% to 10%. This situation is shown by the decaying manufacturing towns seen in Ontario. About 500,000 manufacturing jobs were lost between 2005 and 2013, as the price of oil increased to the $100-$120 range and the Canadian currency was overvalued, leaving the Canadian economy more dependent on energy exports. Some of the auto manufacturing supplier base has shifted from the midwest to southern U.S. states, reducing the attractiveness of Ontario for manufacturing investment. Overvalued currencies have hurt the manufacturing sector of commodity producing countries dependent on exports of mining products or oil, especially Brazil and Canada. The depreciation of the Canadian currency in 2014-2015 may not help, as many of these jobs are not likely to return.

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Paul Krugman describes the situation of slowing inflation in America and the prospects for president Biden in 2024. In just a few months since the midterms inflation is receding. Shoppers are showing resistance to price increases in retail stores. The Fed under Jay Powell has taken a resolute stand against inflation slowing inflation in house sales and rental, in automobile pricing and other sectors of the US economy. New investments under the climate change bill passed in Congress and the CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Bill, mean more factory openings and jobs in America. A milder winter in Europe is helping it tackle an energy shortage and bringing oil prices under control.

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The problems of a growing underclass or unskilled workers in Britain, and people who dropped out of school early. This is is found not just in isolated places but in the Midland cities also. Britain has a higher rate of dropouts, and a less developed apprenticeship program to find good work for these young people, compared to countries such as Austria and Germany.

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During the primaries Trump appealed to blue collar voters of a white working class that felt neglected by leaders and policies of both parties that did not seem to work for ordinary people. Having caught onto this early long before Republican candidates, Trump registered a series of wins in the Republican primaries. He continued this theme in his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention on July 21, 2016, saying- "The forgotten men and women of our country- people who work but no longer have a voice: I am your voice." The idea was to couple this with the theme of law and order and put perception of Hillary Clinton as part of the rigged system of the past that Trump would change, with Clinton's legacy described in terms of "death, destruction, terrorism and weakness." As a change agent Trump described his entering the political arena in terms of coming into this election only to help blue collar people "so that the powerful can no longer beat up on people that cannot defend themselves." The two themes for the rest of the election season- law and order, and blue collar lives- and who can best defend them a traditional Democratic politician with a fighting spirit for traditional Democratic values, or a blustery newcomer adept with slogans and the public mood and ironically representing the Democratic values of representing the working class to become the  Republican nominee, with the law and order theme thrown in. The voter or independent listening in to all this will hopefully ask what all this means. As the WSJ, July 19, 2016, pointed out in a recent look at economc policies under the two candidates- on Glass Steagall Act being reinstated to increase safety of the banking system that caused many of today's problems through the 2008 financial crisis both Trump and Clinton are similiar, on opposing trade agreements similiar except that Trump's bluster is a riskier approach, on infrastructure building similiar with Clinton's $275 billion plan spelled out out for source of financing and Trump's unclear as to source of financing. On immigration the candidates are different, on the minimum wage which impacts low income people Clinton supports $15 minimum wage and Trump has not taken a stand. On ISIS and the Middle East Clinton is in reality a hawk and not much difference in the candidates, on law and order more chance of divisions in the country with Trump than Clinton. Overall for the working class and blue collar voter his life will take a decade or more to rebuild, with both candidates commiting to go in that direction. And the bluster and ads to come- just that.  ...

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Conventional monetary policy is ineffective in a liquidity trap. At that point short term interest rates are at zero, and conventional monetary policy is ineffective at this zero bound. Unconventional policies such as buying long term Treasury bonds by the Federal Reserve may be adopted, but their effectiveness has not been proven. This is something the Fed is attempting to do in the U.S. after the 2008 financial crisis. This was tried in Japan in a deflationary situation and the results did not show conclusively that it works, because Japan remained at a borderline deflationary situation for years while this policy was implemented by the Bank of Japan. The $600 billion bond buying program of the U.S. Fed in late 2010, known as QE II, was implemented to reduce the chance of deflation taking hold and to stimulate growth. Krugman and others argue for the need of fiscal policy and government spending to step in to support the unconventional monetary policy. This becomes more difficult to do with the increasing budget deficit the U.S. is facing in 2011....

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The Muslim Brotherhood is thrust into a critical role as economic policymaker after winning the parliamentary elections in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood's foreign policy advisor, Essam El-Haddad, says it gave the IMF its tentative approval for a $3.2 billion loan to Egypt. Haddad says it was a very, very short time for the learning process to occur about the economic issues facing Egypt and the IMF. Foreign investment peaked in 2007 at $13.7 billion. It is now a small fraction of this and tourism earnings have declined to a third of what they were before. The Brotherhood cites the example of Turkey where the Islamist Justice and Development Party formed the government in 2002. At the time Turkish inflation was at 55%, the currency Turkish Lira had lost 51% of its value and GDP fell by 5.7%. Turkey has seen high economic growth in the last decade.

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The campaign rhetoric for renegotiating NAFTA and building a wall at the border has had a sharply negative effect on growth in Mexico. Growth slowed in 2016 and is expected to be close to zero in 2017 with declining foreign investment in the economy. The uncertainty is leading to sharp decline in foreign direct investment of 24% in the first 9 months of 2016, according to the Bank of Mexico. Further declines can be expected in 2017. The decline in the value of the peso of 16% since May 2016 has led to 6 interest rate increases in the past year. Inflation on annual basis was at 4.72% in Jan. 2017 and is rising. As Mexico depends on exports for one third of its output growth, and 80% is sent to the U.S., there is a need to diversify with trade agreements made with the European Union and other countries. Mexicans now question the value of NAFTA trade agreement as average growth of 2.6 since NAFTA was signed is below the 4.6% in the 2 decades prior to that. And poverty level is the same with about 60% of people in the underground economy. In addition crime, drug trade, a weak education system, weak rule of law, political corruption, show that Mexico has not made the progress since NAFTA that it should have made. ...

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Brazil faces a debt crisis in 2015-2016. Between 2010 and 2015 foreign debt of local governments and Brazilian firms increased from $100 billion to $250 billion, and dollar debt in local currency from 210 billion reas to 655 billion reas, according to Bank of International Settlements data. State banking institutions BNDES and Caixa Economica Federal financed 35% of loans in 2010, by 2015 this increased to 55%. Subsidized loans at 5.5% by BNDES to firms make Brazilian banking a fiscal operation, requiring additional funding. Petrobras increased debt issuance enormously during this period, and now needs government support as its debt is now one notch above junk status. Interest payments on Brazil's debt is 6% of GDP in 2014. Public sector debt is 66% of GDP, and credit to the private sector is 55% of GDP up from 25% in 2005. It will take Brazil years to recover from a huge borrowing binge.

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Friedman on gasoline prices and his support for a gasoline tax. 1. Higher gasoline prices for a while actually increase the likelihood of actions for conservation and fuel efficient automobiles and air quality. 2. There are major structural changes in global economy that won't go away which drive up oil prices. 3. Political talk blaming oil companies and automobile companies won't solve this problem. See related NYT editorial about irresponsible political talk 28 April, 2006. 4. Huge surpluses of Arab states from oil undermine war against terrorism.

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The Fed's efforts to stimulate the economy with low interest rates are having an unintended effect. Even as it is hurting savers and the retired who earn little interest and are pushed into riskier investments, corporations are able to borrow cheaply at near 1% interest rates. Corporations now have about $1.6 trillion in cash savings set aside, and the ratio went up to 6.2% of assets. With the current economic environment and uncertainty this cash is not being used for additional investments and hiring.

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Similiarities with Japan are in the exploding monetary base growth by the Fed, just as bank lending is dropping. And as in post bubble Japan of the 1990's, all of the behaviour says Wood invites legitimate comparisons with Japan. The government has lent, spent or guaranteed about $11 trillion to the financial sector broadly defined, because of letting financial institutions remain "too big to fail," whether Fannie Mae, AIG or Citigroup. None of them have been broken up. And this is similiar to the lack of bank cleanup in Japan with regulatory forbearance for years after the bubble. He thinks there is evidence that America is already in a Japanese style "liquidity trap."

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This WSJ story shows how China started its steel industry from small beginnings when Chinese leader Deng visited a Nippon Steel plant in 1978. He made the decision to go big with Baosteel, with an investment of $6 billion, with the words- "if we do it lets do it big." This was 36 times the Chinese foreign exchange reserves at the time. From 4% of steel production, this went up and up, passing the U.S. in 1993, past Japan in 1996, and in 2018 producing three times the steel of U.S., Russia and China combined, producing 923 million metric tons of steel in 2018, or more than half of world production of steel. With steel China was able to build its automobile industry, shipbuilding, bridges, infrastructure, high speed rail network. This was done using global demand, subsidies from the government, cheap loans and tax breaks. Markets worldwide were affected by substantial excess production in China. From Baosteel the spread of the steel industry to all 23 Chinese provinces led to China accounting for 25% of world exports. By 2016 5 million workers mostly from the agrarian countryside were employed in the steel industry, helping China transform itself into an rapidly urbanizing and modern economy. It was a period when the rail network was tripled between 1975-2017, with shipping companies that ensured access to Australian coal and Brazilian iron ore. From 2011 to 2017 Chinese steel dropped global prices by 57% triggering closure of steel mills in EUrope and the U.S. About a third of trade complaints since 2001 by G20 countries against China are about steel. After entry into the WOrld Trade Organization Chinese steel exports rose to 8% of GDP from 2%. Subsidies, cheap energy, and shift of agrarian workers to cities. U.S. investigations around 2006 showed Chinese steelmakers subsidies covered 30% to 45% of the subsidized value of steel pipes exported overseas. China's steel prices were set 20-40% lower than the U.S. China responded to complaints saying it was trade protectionism. The WTO rules call for full disclosing of all subsidies. This was disclosed 5 years after joining WTO in 2001, and only for central subsidies. Local government subsidies were not disclosed till 2016- the U.S. says 15 years late. Still the Bush and Obama administrations failed to take action. In 2018 Mr. Trump seized on this as a campaign issue that resonated with American workers in manufacturing communities across the U.S. In 2018 November president Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports of Chinese steel. A six month probe by U.S. officials had already shown 40% of sales value came from subsidies for corrosion resistant steel from China. The U.S. Trade Commission imposed tariffs of its own from 39% to 241%, with the Trump tariffs of 25% coming as an additional tariff to tackle the trade surplus with China. Meanwhile in China the government is closing uncompetitive smaller steel mills and in 2016 it combined baosteel with Wuhan Steel to create a larger company, and consolidate remaining companies. Baosteel now provides the steel for CIMC to dominate the steel container business, and to make ship to shore cranes, and make the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.  It also goes to show what can be accomplished from small beginnings for countries in the developing world from Asia to Africa and Latin America, with government and industry focussed on development and growth.   ...