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Spain's effort to fix regional finances, austerity measures and risks of high unemployment
04/27/2012
Efforts to fix regional finances with spending cuts have pushed unemployment to about 27% in one of Spain's largest regions, Castilla-La Mancha. As banks consolidate and reduce lending this depresses small and medium sized businesses, the public sector layoff increase unemployment, part time unemployment and the growing underground economy depress tax revenues, creating risks of a downward spiral.
Linked Articles
A Spanish Leader Emerges as a Crusader for Austerity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2012
Spain, Pursuing Austerity, Still Waits for the PayoffNew York Times 04/27/2012
The sharp rebound at Toyota with planned sales of 9.76 million for fiscal 2012
04/22/2012
Japanese carmakers have rapidly recovered from the earhtquake and tsunami in Japan and floods in Thailand that disrupted supply chains. Toyota has also recovered from the damage to its image after recalls in the U.S. market with U.S. market share at over 15% by the second quarter of 2012.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/04/2012
Japan Auto Makers on a RollWall Street Journal 04/22/2012
Research In Motion's Blackberry 10 and the effort to put together a patchwork of technologies
03/30/2012
Research in Motion failed to come up with a smartphone in time to match the iPhone and Android based smartphones. The Blackberry 10 was put together in crisis mode by June 2012. This is a classic example of the chaos created for established players by new entrants and new technologies.
Linked Articles
RIM's New BlackBerry 10: The Patchwork Smartphone
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2012
BlackBerry Maker in TurmoilWall Street Journal 03/30/2012
Deutsche Bank's hit to its image in Germany with legal settlements and ongoing investigations 2009-2013
03/21/2012
The criminal investigation into alleged tax fraud in trading of carbon emissions certificates, the raid at Deutsche Bank's Frankfurt headquarters in Dec. 2012, and arrest of some senior executives, continues problems with the bank's image in Germany since the 2008 financial crisis. Deutsche Bank's was highly leveraged during the 2008 financial crisis and is perceived as contributing to the crisis. Changing the culture at the bank is likely to take more than the introduction of the new co-CEO arrangement in mid 2012 with Anshu Jain and Jurgen Fitschen, say experts. Germany's judiciary was critical of Fitschen for not respecting the independence of the judiciary and understanding the separation of powers for a call he made protesting the raid in the investigation.
Linked Articles
Image Remake Suffers Hit at Deutsche Bank
Wall Street Journal 12/20/2012
Deutsche Bank Lists Litany of Legal RisksWall Street Journal 03/21/2012
The risks facing Spain in 2012 with austerity measures when unemployment is at 23%
03/06/2012
Finance Minister Luis de Guindos sees Spain loosing either way with spending cuts that worsen high unemployment and lower economic growth leading to a worsening debt to GDP ratio in 2012, and this situation in turn raising its borrowing costs on $86 billion in debt issuance for 2012. He estimates the debt to GDP ratio will increase under the 2012 budget of 27 billion euros in cuts and an economy shrinking by 1.7% in 2012, by 10% from 2011 to 78%. Markets are focussing on debt in Portugal and Spain in 2012, after focussing on Greece and Italy in 2011.
Linked Articles
Spain Faces Risks in Budget Refit
Wall Street Journal 04/03/2012
Spain Struggles to Unite Regional Leaders on CutsNew York Times 03/06/2012
Exit from the Eurozone and return to the drachma as the most likely and best outcome for Greece after April 2012 elections
02/22/2012
John Taylor and the Ifo Institue's Sinn say the recapitalization of Greece's banks and the lower interest rates negotiated after the March 2012 bailout make exiting the euro and achieving economic growth doable. The Papdemos government's need for time till 2015 to complete the program of changes, and the elections in April 2012 in which opposition parties outpolled Pasok and New Democrachy lays the political groundwork for the exit.
Linked Articles
Greece at new risk of being pushed off euro - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/08/2012
A Better Grecian BailoutWall Street Journal 02/22/2012
Greece and EU in 2015- (4) How are the structural issues such as tax evasion in Greece being tackled, after Monti's effort to tackle this in Italy in 2012?
02/18/2012
Surprisingly the Syriza government in 6 months in office did not come up with a plan to implement for tax evasion. This was a major issue for the IMF and in Greece's interest, even though it was going contrary to long standing practice in Greece as it was in Italy. Estimates of lost revenue are about $11 billion each year for tax evasion. By comparison the IMF payment due was less than $2 billion on June 30, 2015. Sustainable long term finances make this a major issue in Greece's own interest. Greece has an aging population and the number of retirees are growing in relation to young working people making this an important issue for stable finances under any administration, and regardless of the euro.
Linked Articles
How Greek tax evasion sunk the global economy
Washington Post 07/10/2012
A Hollow Target for Greek DebtWall Street Journal 02/18/2012
The Indian government's plan to bring the deficit down over 5 years to 3% in 2017
02/14/2012
In response to the policy of the Reseve Bank of India (RBI), India's central bank, to hold off on interest rate changes till the government takes action in reducing the deficit, the Indian government lays out a plan to bring the deficit down to 3% by 2017, and 5.3% in the fiscal year ending March 2013. The government is under pressure to come up with an economic strategy to deal with the slowing economy with growth forecasts lowered to 5-6.5% for 2012. The risk of India's credit rating being being lowered to junk status and drastic slowdown in foreign investment is creating a crisis atmosphere after a period of indecison.
Linked Articles
India Lays Out Deficit Targets
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2012
Indian Central Banker Hits His Government's SpendingWall Street Journal 02/14/2012
Indonesia's economic growth and credit ratings- 2011-2013
01/19/2012
Linked Articles
Indonesian Economy Grows at Top Clip Since '90s
Wall Street Journal 02/07/2012
Indonesia Gets Ratings BoostWall Street Journal 01/19/2012
The passage of the unpopular sales tax hike and political uncertainty in Japan
12/27/2011
Critics say the Democratic Party of Japan should have invested efforts in its election promises to cut wasteful spending. Polls show a majority of Japanese oppose the doubling of the sales tax to 10%.
Linked Articles
Vote Ensures Japan Will Double Sales Tax to 10%
Wall Street Journal 06/27/2012
Tokyo's Move to Raise Tax Hits SnagWall Street Journal 12/27/2011
The point back in 2011 when the beginnings of the unraveling of Iraq (and Syria) took place- Former U.S. Defense Secretary, Robert Gates's reference to the role of Iraq's prime minister Nuri al-Maiki and sectarianism
12/27/2011
Linked Articles
How to Save Iraq From Civil War
New York Times 12/27/2011
The U.S. Has No Global StrategyWall Street Journal 02/01/2016
The U.S. unemployment rate and the long term unemployed dropping out of the labor market (1)- 2010-2013
12/10/2011
Harvard labor economist Lawrence Katz says the long term unemployed who are dropping out of the labor market represent one of three job crises facing America. The other two are the effects of manufacturing automation reducing demand for workers in new plants, and the effects of foreclosures and debt.
Linked Articles
Piecing Together the Job-Picture Puzzle
Wall Street Journal 03/12/2012
The Next First (and Only) 100 DaysNew York Times 12/10/2011
The huge disparity betwen Mexican American high school dropout rates nationwide and in New York city, and the abysmal college enrolment rate
11/24/2011
Semple cites census data showing about 40% dropout rate for the Mexican American immigrant community in New York city, with no other minority community having more than a 20% dropout rate. The college enrollment rate for the Mexican American immigrant community is cited as ony 6% and cause for alarm considering the large Mexican American immigrant community in New York and and nationwide. This is much worse than the rate for the Mexican American community in the U.S. and for Hispanics in the U.S. as The recent Pew Hispanic Center study shows a 76% high school completion rate and a 46% college enrollment rate for U.S. Hispanics 18-24 years with a high school diploma for 2011.
Linked Articles
Mexicans in New York City Lag in Education
New York Times 11/24/2011
Hispanics' College Enrollment Surges, Report FindsNew York Times 08/20/2012
Toyota stages a strong comeback in the U.S., Japan and other markets in 2012-2013
04/22/2012
Toyota's market share in the U.S. was back to 15% in 2012.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/02/2012
Japan Auto Makers on a RollWall Street Journal 04/22/2012
Wide divergence in P/E ratios of France and Germany compared to the U.S. in March 2012
04/06/2012
The 10 year P/E ratios of France and Germany at 12 compared to the U.S.'s at 22 show a wide divergence in the P/E ratios. Analysts say this shows the U.S. equity market is overextended. One estimate shows a price valuation divergence of 10%, more than what is justified by "safety" and other concerns.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/07/2012
Job Growth Loses SteamWall Street Journal 04/06/2012
Eliminating all Bush tax cuts to generate the revenue base to support spending programs for the middle class down the road
03/29/2012
Jared Berstein of the Economic Policy Institute, Peter Orszag, former director of the Congressional Budget Office, and Mayor Bloomberg of New York, say eliminating all Bush tax cuts would provide the revenue base needed to support middle class programs for future years. Orszag says making the tax code more progressive is desirable especially considering the inequality but this does not do much good if the revenue base to support middle class programs down the road is insufficient.
Linked Articles
Middle Class Malaise Complicates Democratsâ Fiscal Stance
New York Times 12/12/2012
Federal Budgets and Class WarfareWall Street Journal 03/29/2012
Wage hikes and excess demand for labor in China in 2012-2013 reduce the need for Stimulus
03/14/2012
The need for stimulus to keep jobs for migrant workers and maintain social stability does not exist in 2012 the way it appeared in 2008, when about 20% of migrant workers lost their jobs and wages for migrant workers fell by 10%, according to estimates by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Stanford University. In 2012 there is excess demand for labor and reports show the efforts to reduce the 60 hour work week in some factories is running into problems with a shortage of labor. This means less need for stimulus that would aggravate problems in the housing bubble and inflation.
Linked Articles
China's Workers in No Need of Stimulation
Wall Street Journal 06/04/2012
China's Wage Hikes Ripple Across AsiaWall Street Journal 03/14/2012
Tax increases on the wealthy in Japan by the Shinzo Abe government to go with an increase in the sales tax to 10%
03/04/2012
Linked Articles
Tokyo Set to Raise Levy on Wealthiest
Wall Street Journal 01/11/2013
Prime Minister Noda says tax hike essential for Japan's sustainability - The Washington PostWashington Post 03/04/2012
Failure to tackle tax evasion in Greece estimated at one third of the deficit for 2009
02/19/2012
The implementation of austerity measures in Greece including cuts to the minimum wage hit people with lower wages the hardest. This takes place even as Greece fails to tackle tax evasion by higher income groups such as doctors and engineers. This is estimated by a group of economists who looked at Greek bank records at 11.2 billion euros in 2009.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/09/2012
Greek leaders’ priorities questioned - The Washington PostWashington Post 02/19/2012
India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, and efforts to balance inflation goals with the need to stimulate growth in 2012
02/14/2012
The RBI made a rate cut of 0.5 percentage point in April 2012, following a series of rate increases in 2010-2011 to control inflationary pressures. The RBI governor Devi Subbarao's view is that the government which faces a lack of political leadership and state elections needs to do more to increase growth.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/18/2012
Indian Central Banker Hits His Government's SpendingWall Street Journal 02/14/2012
Spain's high jobless rate of 23% in 2011 and new labor laws to make it easier to hire workers
01/28/2012
Linked Articles
In New High, Spain's Jobless Rate Nears 23%
Wall Street Journal 01/28/2012
Spain Approves Changes to Labor PolicyNew York Times 02/10/2012
Indonesia's investment grade credit rating and lower bond yields at 5.375% in 2012
01/12/2012
Borrowings at lower cost should help Indonesia address the need for infrastructure improvements.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/19/2012
Reversal of Fortunes in Debt MarketWall Street Journal 01/12/2012
Tax increases on the wealthy in Japan by the Shinzo Abe government to promote a sense of fairness in tax policies
12/27/2011
Linked Articles
Tokyo Set to Raise Levy on Wealthiest
Wall Street Journal 01/11/2013
Tokyo's Move to Raise Tax Hits SnagWall Street Journal 12/27/2011
The U.S. unemployment rate and the long term unemployed dropping out of the labor market (2)- 2011-2013
12/12/2011
Ezra Klein points out that the real unemployment rate in November 2011 was 11%- when taking into account the long term unemployed dropping out of the labor market- not about 9%.
Linked Articles
Piecing Together the Job-Picture Puzzle
Wall Street Journal 03/12/2012
Wonkbook: The real unemployment rate is 11 percent - The Washington PostWashington Post 12/12/2011
Tax evasion in Italy and Greece and Germany's insistence on good governance and financial practices for a sound euro currency
11/25/2011
One estimate of tax evasion in Italy cited by Faiola in the Post is $340 billon a year. Greece has a similiar problem. This is one area in which the culture and practices of individual countries have to converge to acceptable norms to make a common currrency viable, something the founders of the euro currency did not take as seriously as needed and account for in a disciplined framework. The political enthusiasm for a union of European countries of EU founders led to ignoring the dangers of not having controls and convergence in place.
Linked Articles
New York Times 12/01/2011
Amid crisis, Italy confronts a culture of tax evasion - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/25/2011
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