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Ip's point about the actions of previous president's in promoting a recovery long after they are in office has to be qualified by the uncertain economic outlook for 2013, with a slowdown in the eurozone, China and India, and the efforts to control the deficit in the U.S. also affecting the economic outlook. The process of deleveraging has still to work itself out and the economy is still being supported by the Fed's continual easing of monetary policy.

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The employment-to-population ratio for people aged 20-24 fell to 60.1% from 67.1% in the last 3 years. Prof. Katz says young people who have not entered the labor force and a large number of people who have applied for disability benefits are problem areas. The unemployment rate of 9.4% does not reflect the people who have given up looking for a job, or those who retired, and those who applied for long-term disability benefits.

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New York Governor Cuomo proposes to merge the state's Insurance and Banking Departments, and the Consumer Protection Board, into a new Department of Financial Regulation. Cuomo says this is necessary to give New York a more efficient and modern regulatory framework. Governor Cuomo's aides say a single regulator is needed for effective regulation compared to the patchwork of agencies that has existed for so long. The new agency would also be empowered to oversee hedge funds.

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The Labor Dept. shows U.S. job vacancy rate of 2.6% and 3.5 million job openings at the end of Feb. 2012. This was an increase from three million in the prior year. The job vacancy rate shows job openings as a percentage of total U.S. jobs. The large and increasing number of job vacancies suggest that there is a mismatch of skills that will take a long time to be corrected and a slower decline in the unemployment rate.

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Marc Lynch of the George Washington University Institute for Middle East Studies, says the U.S. should close its embassy in Cairo, and sever ties with the military government in Egypt. The policies of the Obama administration showing ambivalence towards the movement for democracy in the region has hurt U.S. credibility even as the U.S. media and people have supported the positive developments away from military run governments. The damage done will take a long time to repair.

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The comparison of China with Japan as stress builds up from overexpansion of credit in the banking system. The sharp increase in credit following the 2008 financial crisis has built up stress in China's banking system. Japan went through a period of low growth and insufficient lending by banks. Banks refinanced bad debts to zombie companies in Japan leading to a long period of low growth. China faces a similiar period of low growth after a credit expansion binge.

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The baffling situation where no executive from Lehman faced charges for accounting manipulation after a long S.E.C. investigation under S.E.C. chief Schapiro. The report by Lehman bankruptcy account examiner Valukos cited accounting manipulation. This NYT report says Mr. Canellos, the co-head of the enforcement unit, was supported by Robert Khuzami in the decision not to move ahead with charges, and S.E.C. Schapiro continued the investigation but did not make the decision to support moving ahead.

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Two Harvard economists, Lawrence Summers and Lant Pritchett, say China is likely to revert to the mean of average long term growth of developed countries after this spurt of growth is over. Growth is likely to slow to 6% by 2016, and revert to the mean of 2% for industrialized countries in the long term. Goldman Sachs banker Jim O'Neill, says the growth at a higher rate could be sustained because of urbanization. Summers does not rule out this outcome as he accepts a range of outcomes, with the most likely outcome being a reversion to the mean. The factors often cited for slowing growth are lower of productivity of capital as corruption and close connections determine where capital is allocated, misallocation of capital, large increases in credit in the economy since 2009 leading to bad debt in the financial system, aging society and demographics with increasing numbers of older people. Other reasons are the choices being made by Chinese leaders for slowing down to address the problems of air pollution and contamination of water supplies, inflation in housing prices, overdependence on exports, need to shift to increasing domestic consumer spending but unable to do this with the lack of spending power of large parts of the population because wealth is excessively concentrated in the upper ranks of society. The need to manage these forces ensuring some measure of stability depends on finding ways to reduce the growing concentration of wealth and power, in itself a challenge for the Communist Party elite. A combination of different factors with some still unknown factors are likely to play a part in this reversion to the mean for China, a situation encountered by every country so far in North America, Europe and Japan. This makes it even more important that each developing society structure its development around the most optimal goals with the least costs attached to the development....

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Governor Jerry Brown of California retires to an isolated family ranch in Colusa County, an hours drive northwest of Sacramento, the state capital. He is the longest tenured and oldest governor of the state, having held the office when he was younger and then coming back years later to be governor again after becoming Mayor of Oakland. His father was also a famous governor of the state. 

His values of embracing community almost to the point of being tribal were evident in his long years in office. His three years spent at a Jesuit seminary before going to law school also shaped his life. Brown was opposed to embellishment, living in a sort of ascetic way, and was also opposed to a cult of personality. Upto the point that he refused to sign autographs as governor.

Here Miriam Pawell who written a book on the Brown family and how it changed California for the better, looks at the life, times and character of Jerry Brown.

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Canada's Bombardier based in Montreal launched the C series in 2008 to develop aircraft to compete with Airbus 320neo and Boeing 737 MAX, narrow body commercial airplanes. After cost overruns and delays Bombardier has $9 billion of long term debt and its financial condition deteriorated to the point where it needed a $1 billion loan from Quebec government in 2015. About 40,000 workers in Quebec are in the aerospace industry. In 2018 Airbus acquired a 50.01% stake in the Cseries program to provide marketing muscle because sustainablility became a marketing issue in Bombardier's severely weakened financial condition resulting in weak sales. Quebec government holds 16%, Bombardier 34%. Now Bombardier is planning to sell its stake in the A220 jet program to Airbus to cut its debt. Airbus will cover $350 million in losses for 2020. It is also negotiating to sell its core jet division to Textron Inc. The ambitious strategy appears to have failed for Bombardier as Airbus takes control.     ...

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Using knowledge of molecular crystal formation with a degree in industrial chemistry, and a chocolate making apprenticeship in Antwerp, this is what brings Thierry Muret to the exciting work of making new truffles. He originally wanted to become a scientist inventing new things. Today he uses his science degree every single day, as its all about crystals, says Muret, who is the main chef at a large chocolate maker, Godiva. His view is that chefs are all the time decomposing food and recomposing it as they see fit using creative ways and ideas. He says chocolate is a very difficult material, and it takes sometimes as long as 12 months to get one product right. One deals with temperatures and time and half a degree Fahrenheit is what the fluctuation allowed is. Here he describes a typical day at a chocolate maker and days when he gets creative, passionate about a creation, putting everything aside. Other days at a satellite kitchen in New York, or in Brussels talking about new chocolates for Christmas 2020. ...

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China reports no new coronavirus infections for the first time on March 19. The outbreak in Italy now surpasses that in China.  The U.S. government is now shifting to social distancing as the most effective way to control the spread and away from focus on widespread testing as a containment tool. The experience in China shows social distancing works, quarantine works. Countries and regions that have neglected to do this early are the ones worst hit, including most of Europe.  The reintroduction of the infection after its containment is addressed by quarantine and social distancing and use of masks, government disinfecting hard surfaces in all public areas, a program implemented strictly in Asian countries such as Singapore, China, Taiwan, and other Asian countries. Use of masks was common in Asian countries in earlier episodes of SARS and other epidemics, making it widely used long before this crisis. This is making a significant impact in addition to social distancing and other quarantine measures taken in China.   ...

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Skeptical reception of the Administration's plan as Senators on the Banking Committee question, Paulson, Bernanke, Cox and Lockhart. The plan is only a few pages long and has no details wich alarms Senators as letting Treasury act with absolute impunity. The Senators are concerned about accountability, transparency and strict oversight. They are also concerned about protecting taxpayers money and taking equity in return for funds as on way to ensure that the taxpayers benefit from the upside in this as with the Swedish example in 1992. And Senators are concerned about the high rate of foreclosures and the need to help homeowners avoid foreclosure about which this plan is silent leaving in the words of one senator " a gaping hole" in the plan as home prices will continue to deteriorate as long as nothing serious and comprehensive is done about the foreclosure rate. Neither Bernanke or Paulson had anything to say about addressing foreclosures with broad comprehensive steps. And reflecting the outrage across the country the Senators want to see a cap on executive compensation of CEO's or some way in which CEO's of these financial institutions benefit while the taxpayers bear the burden. Summing up for the committee the head of the Senate Banking committee said that the Administrations plan was "unacceptable." ...

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China's Finance Ministry is having a difficult time controlling local governments using local government financing vehicles to invest in more infrastructure, airports roads and subways. One such city is Wuhan which plans six subway lines, three bridges over the Yangste river and a new airport. Much of the money comes from land sales. The Finance Ministry in a 2013 report pointed to the unreliability of land sales for future borrowing as the property market is slowing, and because it is highly unpopular to requisition land for land sales. This matters because the IMF says debt is growing faster in China than when Japan, South Korea and the U.S. fell into deep recessions at different times between the late 1980's and 2009. Local government debt accounts for one fourth of the increase in China's domestic debt since 2008. New rules by China's bond agency in Dec. 2014 prevents investors from using low grade debt to borrow cash. In the past local governments found a way around the central governments effort to curb growth of debt by restructuring the local government vehicles or some other way, as Wuhan has done. Wuhan Urban is the local government financing vehicle for Wuhan and its debt increased by 20% in 2013. Wuhan's mayor, Tang Liangzhi, is pushing construction to the point where he is known as Mr. Dig, Dig. One reason for China's slowing growth below 6-7% is the need to control the growth of debt. Local government debt in China reached 36% of GDP in 2013, double the figure in 2008, and will increase to 52% of GDP in 2019, according to the IMF. And the increase is not proportionally delivering the same results as before. JP Morgan estimates that over 4 units of borrowing are needed in 2015 for every unit of investment, compared to less than 2 units of borrowing for every unit of investment in 2007. PRC Macro Advisors of Hong Kong says half of the borrowing by financing vehicles goes to pay interest on existing debt in 2014. There are 8000 such local government financing vehicles in China today each competing to build infrastructure in its neighborhood, in the case of Wuhan to build a computing back office for financial companies and as transportation hub, even though its uncertain whether this will be realized or not. The problem is that alternative investments as an opportunity cost are being neglected, the hospital not being built as China's population ages with underinvestment in health care, and the private company with better returns that is unable to find financing. A classic example of crowding out of better return investments as a glut of housing and road/bridge/ airport infrastructure gets built. The central government is wary but faced with slowing growth pushes problems down the road, what experts call a Japan syndrome....

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The demand for ships went up so steeply that shipping rates hit the roof, and the prices of ships went up accordingly. Between the end of 2006 and July 2008 , shipyards received enough commissions, says the Economist, that this would double the world's fleet. Just as demand has collapsed and international trade has gone down, about 9000 ships are coming onstream. Now 11% of fleet capacity justs sits on the water, in the seas outside the harbors of Singapore, Hong Kong and other southeast Asian ports. A 150 tonne cape class ship that sold in 2003 for $18.5 million in the used market, when rates for charter were $15,000 a day, had risen by summer 2008, to $85 million with rates of $175,000 a day. These rates went up even more to $300,000 a day, which is 20 times what it was in 2003. And rates today are back down to $15,000 a day, where they were in 2003. This ship, cited by a broker, to give some idea of the extent of this boom and its collapse, was sold for scrap at $7 million. And South Korean shipyards are taking this into account, in their pricing and collection of payment, with 20% demanded upfront, 60% during construction, and 20% upon delivery. The backlog in shipyards is estimated by Clarkson Research, a maritime research firm, at $526 billion, even as banks are leery of lending and concerned about the value of the collateral in the event of default. Some smaller Korean shipyards are closing. Steve Mann, analyst at HSBC, says that half of the orders for delivery in 2010 will be delayed, so that there is work for 2011 and inventory or excess capacity does not pile up on the oceans. Even in this situation China, India and Vietnam continue to support the expansion of their own shipyards. This suggests additional losses for shipbuilders, shipping lines and the banks that lend to shipyards. All this also goes to show that the rush to industrialize, once it gets a firm footing- like it has in the Chinese model of increasing investment and local governments pushing infrastructure, industry and export factories with officials judged on GNP growth numbers- can exacerbate a boom-bust cycle. This is one industry, others include machinery manufacturers, commodity producers, and manufacturers of parts that go into finished products assembled in China for export. This means it would take the world economy down with it, if some external factor like the drop in export demand suddenly slows everything down. Machinery manufacturers in Germany, commodity producers in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Australia, and manufacturers of the high tech parts in Japan and Taiwan that are shipped to China for assembly, all go down in this boom-bust cycle, in a dramatic manner. ...

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The nominee for the position of FBI Director in the U.S. in July 2017, Christopher Wray, is a former defense lawyer, prosecutor and Justice Department official. He responded to questions from Senator Graham on his views on Russia, and from Senator Leahy. He told the Senators that this was not a job for the faint of heart, and that "I am not faint of heart." He said he respects Mr. Mueller and Mr Comey's long service. Answering persistent questions from the Senate Judiciary Committee Wray said: "I believe to my core that there's only one right way to do this job, and that is with strict independence, by the book, playing it straight." Wray's background is Yale Law School 1992, Assistant U.S. Attorney in Georgia 1997, and with the Justice Department since 2001 becoming Assistant Attorney General for the criminal division. 

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A study of the economies of the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. by the Brookings Institution suggests that states in the South may be facing a harder time recovering from high unemployment than the northeast and midwestern states. Of the ten states with the highest unemployment six are in the West and the South, including Nevada, California, and S. Carolina. Unemployment in S. Carolina is 11.1%. A researcher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, says the better performance of the South in earlier years was driven by development and in-migration. This has abruptly ended. A Brookings Fellow, Howard Wial, suggests the possibility of California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida being depressed for a long time, while states in the Great Lakes region see a rebound. States and regions that are dependent on education, healthcare and energy, are doing better than others. In Pennsylvania, the Pittsburgh region with its emphasis on education and healthcare is doing better than Philadelphia. In New York, Buffalo and Rochester in the upstate region are doing better than the New York City metropolitan area. Areas around Akron and Youngstown in the rustbelt part of Ohio are recovering better than Tucson and Colorado Springs....

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Bond investors are looking to Japan for clues after the U.S. credit downgrade and two years of zero interest rates. William O'Donnell, chief Treasurys strategist at RBS Securities sees similiarities with what happened in Japan- short term rates near zero and long term rates headed down. strategists see the U.S. 10 year Treasury note dropping to less than 2%, from 2.23% today. Japan's 10 year Treasury note yields 1.05%. O'Donnell's forecast is for 10 year rates to be at 1.70% by mid-2012.

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Analysts are forecasting an average oil price of $106 for 2011, according to FactSet Research Systems. Brent crude is $110 a barrel in the third week of August 2011. This implies Brent crude has to be at an average of $95 for the remainder of 2011- suggesting a decline of 14% from todays levels. Share prices of European oil companies Royal Dutch Shell, BP, Eni and Total are priced for long term crude oil prices at $75 per barrel, according to Citi.

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This Reagon Memo from 1980 was written by his advisors George Shultz, Milton Friedman, Paul McCracken and others before his first inauguration in 1980. It provides the new president with prudent advice on policy and methods to deal with soaring inflation and a stagnant economy. Its relevance today lies in the emphasis on charting out a long term plan for growth by encouraging private investment in the economy and providing a sure framework for the private sector to generate expansion.

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Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the Consumer Price Index fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in December, after falling 1.7% in November. The so called core rate that excludes volatile food and energy costs was flat. For all of 2008 consumer prices went up by only 0.1%, while the core rate rose 1.8%. This creates the possibility of deflation taking place as the economy worsens in 2009 and deflation hanging over the American economy for a long time after that.