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According to the chief economist at IHS Global Insight, Nigel Gault, his models show that $500 billion of purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve will increase growth in the U.S. by only 0.1% in 2011, and leave unemployment at 9% or higher for two years. Moody's Analytics and Macroeconomic Advisors also point to small impact of quantitative easing efforts of the Fed. One economist said that the Fed's taking interest rate to zero had not worked, QE1 has not worked either, and now its a serious question how much difference QE2 would make.

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The South Korean government of president Moon takes steps to reduce the impact of escalating rhetoric between president Trump and North Korea. South Korea's national security adviser Chung Eui-yong has long discussions with Gen. McMaster his U.S. counterpart. A presidential statement in South Korea stated that "the U.S. and South Korea reaffirmed their promise that they will coordinate with each other closely and transparently," following these discussions. The opinion in South Korea is that the South Korean concerns about a conflict are being ignored by president Trump.

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The OPEC meeting in Qatar in April 2016 to stabilize oil prices with a freeze in production is not likely to affect supply and demand. Saudis and Russia are producing all out, and Iran plans to increase its production, making it difficult to reach an agreement. The International Energy Agency, IEA, predicts demand will rise by the end of 2016 from 94.8 million barrels a day to 95.9 million barrels a day. Production is at 96.4 million barrels a day, and this is expected to lead to narrowing the gap between supply and demand. Experts say cars are becoming more fuel effficient, and electric car technology is becoming commercially viable, leading to a lack of growth in demand in developed and middle income countries. This may have to be factored in for the intermediate and long run for demand growth.

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General Electric, GE, experienced a steep decline in the last decade. The worst news came in 2018 with the loss of half its share price and market value. One story tells about an employee who was forced out of retirement back to work seeing the loss of value in GE shares in 2018. Rarely has a company of this size seen a fall in stock price this steep, for a stock that was once seen as safe for widows. About 60% of GE business comes from jet engines, electric power generators and wind turbines. GE now plans to sell its health care business and other business that do not relate to core infrastructure in energy, aerospace, and other markets. Under Jack Welch a faulty model of adding diverse businesses that had nothing to do with its core business and expertise in infrastructure were added. A home mortgage lending business was added and GE Capital expanded. NBC Universal was added with little justification in a period when CEO's acted without much consultation. The home mortgage lending unit collapsed with large losses during the 2008 financial crisis and GE's share price dropped drastically to $6.00. Under Welch's successor Mr. Immelt the GE Capital unit was shrunk in size, but losses continued to mount. An oil field service unit was added which also sustained losses.  Immelt's successor Flannery faced a loss of $15 billion from the financial lending unit. Sale of some businesses was not sufficient to meet the loss. Flannery is now taking GE out of all the businesses which were not core business. The NBC Universal television business was sold to Comcast in 2013. GE Healthcare is next. This closes a bad chapter in GE's story under Welch and Immelt. GE's dividend was cut for the second time since the Great Depression. The story of GE is also the story of American business during the last two decades, with icons such as GM, Ford and GE suffering decline, businesses that operated like little fiefdoms of old nobility in Europe, with CEO's operating in a CEO centric culture, not tolerating contrary opinion for informed debate on issues facing the business. Alfred Sloan founder of Genral Motors called constructive debate central to good management. Later Intel CEO Andy Grove coined the phrase constructive confrontation as a way of constructive debate, and the CEO was shown as the first of equals. The CEO centric management ignored these warnings and admonitions in running their fiefdoms.   ...

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Sommer describes the effect of a strong dollar on Apple's sales and profits from iPhones worldwide. This in turn affects Apple's share price. Corporate profits in the U.S. declined by 5.1% in 2015, according to the Commerce Department. Between the last quarters of 2014 and 2015 every dollar of Apple sales was reduced by 15 cents when converted into dollars, according to CEO Tim Cook.

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This editorial in the Economist says China faces risks of a steep fall in the currency in its management of the currency. It suggests temporarily using capital controls to stabilize the currency and later gradually lift the controls. In any case it says the exercize will not be painless because of high debt of companies and in the Chinese economy.

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Signs that the consumer credit boom in Turkey is reaching alarming proportions are evident from the surge in credit card use. Credit card debt has increased by 20% in 2011, after an increase of 23% in 2010. There are an estimated 3.7 million delinquent cardholders and 2.5 million cardholders who only make the monthly payments. The Turkish regulators are now requiring cardholders to payoff at least half of the balances before they can use ATM's for cash. Banks charge interest rates of about 29% and cardholders who are using credit cards for the first time -as more of the Turkish people are joining the middle class during the country's decade of high growth- do not understand the risks. Turkish banks, Garanti, Yapi Kredi, and Isbank, are in the list of top ten card issuers in Europe, according to Nilson Report. Card purchases average $3,500 per year, in a country with per capita income of $12,300. Turkish banks have pushed card use, with Garanti Bank's website giving users cash for frequent use of cards, and asking users to show the card even if they are buying an apple at the grocery store. The volume of personal consumer loans has doubled since 2009, because Turks use the consumer loans to pay off the high interest rate balances on credit card debt. Analysts at ING Group in London who follow Turkish banks say the delinquency rates will be above 9% in 2012. The IMF's Global Financial Stability Report of Sept. 2011 has identified the credit growth to GDP ratio as one of the key factors leading to an economic crisis. This was true for the U.S. before 2008, for Portugal and Ireland before the eurozone crisis. China's credit growth was up 29% in 2009 and Hong Kong's up 30% according to the IMF Report. Turkey and Vietnam also have high credit growth to GDP ratios according to the IMF. Turkey's high capital inflows can quickly reverse in a crisis increasing the risks facing the country....

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Signs that Turkey's economy is growing and consuming beyond its capacity. The current account deficit is now at 8%, and foreign credit is helping finance the boom. General purpose consumer loans are growing rapidly- at 42% in 2010, and at 61% on average from 2005 to 2008- according to Standard Unlu, an Istanbul based investment bank. Banks are known to send text messages to borrowers if they qualify, so that the money can be picked up at the bank branch. Turkey has gone through two boom bust cycles- in 1994 and in 2001. The central bank of Turkey has increased the level of interest free deposits banks must keep at the central bank, a move designed to reduce lending. However Turkey's younger generation of consumers are on a spending binge, and access to personal loans is easy. Signs of an asset bubble are easy to find. A 24 acre plot in Istanbul's city center sold for $33.3 million.

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The Editorial Board of the Washington Post draws attention to the speculative bubble in housing in China, the policies for sale of land by local governments that fuel the bubble, the corrupt local officials, and GDP growth that reflects overinvestment in housing creating serious imbalances in the economy. The structure of the economic and political system which promote this overinvestment in real estate has also reduced the role of the Chinese consumer in GDP growth, and is preventing a rebalancing of the world economy.

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India's central bank chief, Raghuram Rajan, points to the risks for developing economies from changes in monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Indian rupee lost about a fourth of its value in 2013 as the U.S. Fed announced plans to withdraw from its quantitative easing policies. Large depreciations in other developing economies, Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil, happened at the same time. Rajan and India's Reserve Bank increased the interest rate by half a percentage point in 2013 to deal with the impact on inflation as a result of the large depreciation of the rupee. The volatility of capital flows and sudden reversal in inflows of capital to developing economies leaves these countries exposed to sharp declines in economic growth. India's growth has slowed to 5%, larger than expected from the slower growth in the global economy in 2013, largely as a result of decreases in direct foreign investment and capital outflows.

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Northwestern University's Robert Gordon sees growth in the US economy dropping from 1.93 %- that it achieved in the period 1972-2007- to 1.5% from 2007 to 2027. At that rate of growth GDP per capita would increase by 35% in the next twenty years, compared to the 62% increase in the previous period. He says better educated workers would be needed to increase the growth rate. And he discounts the impact of the internet revolution as it has no magic quality, and he describes the present transformation technologically as a mere shift to smaller devices that is not changing productivity. He does not see another technological revolution like the internet boom. The coming retirement of baby boomers increases the number of retired people that wage earners would have to support, and there is no evidence of education levels increasing for the remaining workers. What this means is that it will be more difficult to fix large problems from carbon emission, energy to infrastructure improvement. Gordon arrived at these numbers by combining research on educational attainment, technological change, and workforce demographics for the USA, and running this data through models. Gordon has examined data going back to 1891 for the USA. This shows that the next twenty years will be the slowest growth in the nation's history, since George Washington assumed the Presidency....

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Chile's president Bachelet takes office for the second time in Jan 2014, after serving a term from 2006-2010. Her new administration will boost public spending and spending on education. Corporate tax rates will be increased and personal tax rates lowered. As growth slowed to 4% in 2013 from the 5.8% in prior years, Chile will have to look for new ways to boost growth.

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Views of students and former Chief Secretary Anson Chan are expressed in this piece by Wan on the protests for more democracy in Hong Kong. Chan says if he had known what Hong Kong would be like today he would not have been so enthusisastic about the handover to China in 1997. He is one of the leaders pushing for a compromise.