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This WSJ editorial is pessimistic about the prospects for Abenomics without the actions needed for structural economic reform. Japan is in a recession after two successive quarters of declining growth by the end of 2015. It gives credit to prime minister Abe for encouraging companies to add more independent directors to the boards and pushing for improving corporate governance, but finds other actions lacking. The low unemployment rate is seen as concealing the problem of two tier labor market with most of the recent job growth coming from temporary workers, and the total number of worked hours actually declining. The 30% decline in the yen has not boosted the economy as much as expected because it also means decline in consumer spending power, and Japanese companies continue to move jobs overseas. It cites a Nikkei poll showing only 25% of the Japanese public now see Abenomics as improving the condition of the economy. The declining growth in China is also playing a part in slowing growth in Japan, adding more headwinds for Abenomics in 2016....

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CreditSights, a New York research firm says about $33 billion in losses from home equity loans will hit the five largest banks in the latter part of 2010, an amount equal to what they expect in earnings for 2010. This would have an adverse effect on the banks and has the potential to stall the economic recovery.

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Xi Jinping's childhood years were spent during the Chinese Cultural Revolution. He studied for a degree in chemical engineering after the end of the Cultural Revolution. He belongs to the group of leaders who worked to form the consensus around the current leadership and the leadership of Jiang Zemin. Little is known of his views on many issues.

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How will countries like India generate jobs when technology enables manufacturing and other activity to do work with fewer and fewer people. Even Hon Hai in China is shifting work to robots. Technological progress is leaving more people unemployed and widening income gaps with the benefits going to a few people, says the Economist in this research based essay. It will require carefully managed governance to invest in infrastructure, raise skills of less skilled workers through education, and wage subsidies for those left behind to ensure our current system works in the future.

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Easwar Prasad, Cornell University economist, and a former head of the IMF's China division, says the new report by the World Bank and the Development Reform Commission (DRC), is part of an effort by government officials in China to push the agenda for change forward during the transition to a new leadership. This includes Premier Wen. There is pushback from large state enterprises. The DRC and the World Bank had called for a change from the current situation to allow more private sector involvement in the economy, which means restricting the growth of the large state owned companies and letting the private sector operate in more parts of the economy. The alternative is to see growth slowing quickly and -some economists- say suddenly without warning. The role of Zhu Rongji, a former prime minister during the period Jiang Zemin was president, in pushing for changes appropriate to the period, is also cited. The last decade under prime minister Wen Biao is seen as one in which China relentlessly pursued its currrent export led model of development with large state run companies and state run banks dominating the economy. This has made change even harder to achieve because of the pushback to preserve the status quo....

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A shift in priorities away from focussing on high growth to lower sustainable growth was announced by China's premier Wen Jiabao at the National People's Congress, China's parliament, in March 2012. This shift will reduce investment in infrastructure, power generation and exports, which will affect the level of imports of commodities from commodity producing nations in the Middle East, Australia, Canada and Brazil. It should increase imports of software, computers, entertainment, tourism and high tech goods from the U.S. and Europe. Chinese leaders have said they would make this kind of shift for some years now but growth has consistently increased more than the target rate, and domestic consumption as a percentage of the economy has actually decreased in the last decade. Now 9-10% growth rates may be a thing of the past and the target of 7.5% set this year may be actually closer to the real figure. The Chinese leaders have belatedly realized the need to make these changes now because slowing markets in Europe -which is seeing declining growth and high unemployment- and in the U.S., make the issue impossible to avoid. Wen told the Congress: "Accelerating the transformation of the pattern of economc development... is both a long term task and our most pressing task at present... Domestically it has become more urgent but also more difficult... to alleviate the problem of unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable development." This is his way of saying that its unavoidable and better to start in earnest now, and at the same time recognizing the resistance to change from the stateowned companies and the other interests who have benefitted from surging growth, and now occupy a central role in the power structure. An opinion article in the People's Daily, China's official newspaper, said: "imperfect reforms are to be preferred to a crisis caused by no reforms." The World Bank's president Zoellick is respected by the Chinese leaders. He also urged them to make changes now. The recent report of the DRC, China's planning research arm, and the World Bank, also laid out the new direction away from a focus on infrastructure to domestic consumption. The fear is sudden deceleration in the absence of policy action. The impact of this will be negative for commodities over time, leading to slower growth in Australia, Brazil, and Canada. It should boost imports from Europe and the U.S. of high tech, consumer, pharmaceutical goods over time....

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Landon Thomas Jr. asks the question now on the minds of many bankers in the City of London- did the conditions British prime minister present to the EU leaders at the summit on Dec 9, 2011, help or hurt the City of London and Britain's financial sector? Will the City now have to deal with rules set by the other 26 countries, with Britain's role in their formulation marginalized.

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In a shift from statements at earlier summits which focussed on fiscal restraint, the Camp David summit continued the "firm committment to fiscal consolidation," yet emphasized jobs and economic growth as "imperative." There is new flexibility to address needs for economic growth and no specific timetables for fiscal balance as in previous summits. Obama had many one to one encounters with the other leaders. He discussed the euro crisis with Cameron while working out on a treadmill, and watched the Champions League soccer final between Chelsea and Bayern Munich with Merkel and Cameron. Each leader of the G-8, Harper of Canada, Monti of Italy, Hollande of France, Medvedev of Russia, Cameron of Britain, Noda of Japan, Merkel of Germany, was assigned a cabin in the rustic wooded setting of Camp David's mountains. A special effort was made to see that Germany's Merkel did not feel isolated in the setting because of the growing sentiment that austerity policies pushed by Germany are not working. On Iran, Obama stated that he was "hopeful that we can resolve this issue in a peaceful fashion that recognizes their sovereignty, but also recognizes their responsibilities."...

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Su Liping, professor at Tsinghua Unversity, says there were 180,000 protests, riots and other incidents, protesting economic injustice in 2010. Most of the incidents were against land grabs, corruption and abuses by local officials, and unpaid wages. Inflation has hit the poor, migrant workers and people with low incomes hardest. Food prices were up 13.4% in August over the same month prior year. Pork prices were up 52.3%. Other problems are now meshed in with inflation. Local government debt in China, according to the National Audit Office, was 10.7 trillion yuan in June 2011. The National Audit Office estimates 23% of this, or 2.5 trillion yuan, depends on land for repayment. Analysts say China's local government made repayment in 2010 using the 2.9 trillion yuan in revenue from land sales. The same amount of land has to be sold in 2010 to make repayment. At lower prices even more land may have to be sold. The danger say Orlik and Jie, is that inflation and the pressure to acquire more land- and consequently more land grabs- will pose severe risks to the social contract in China....

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Prime minister Modi cites the successful Mars mission "Mangalayan" as showing India's technological capabilities and its ability to do things speedily at very low cost. For foreign investors India offers a stable politcal climate because his party has an absolute majority in parliament and controls many state governments, as well as being a democracy with a vibrant and internet connected young generation. A young population with 55% of the people under age 35 makes India the manufacturing powerhouse of the next two decades, said Modi. And the consumer base of over 1.2 billion people an attractive market. It was a rare combination of hands on salesmanship rarely seen ever on television from a prime minister. In one exceptional response about the condition of women, Modi said he personally led his ministers and legislators through Gujarat state's rural areas house to house in 45 degree centigrade summer heat on June 11-13 school opening days. He did this urging parents to send their daughters to school with the slogan "Send your daughter to school, Save a Girl." The result he said was 100% school enrollment in these rural areas for girls. A rare person at a special moment in India's history pushing the goals of development with uncommon tenacity....

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Landon Thomas Jr. looks at the situation in Spain and finds it hard not to conclude that austerity policies are not working in the absence of economic growth, and increasing unemployment. Unemployment in Spain is at 24% and growing. Deficit reduction is likely to take longer with the deteriorating economic outlook. Spain's economy minister, Luis de Guindos has announced Spain plans to increase consumer taxes in 2013, including the VAT, which is currently at 18%. This would further depress consumer spending. Bondholders sense dangers from lack of economic growth and competitiveness, as much as they sense dangers from uncontrolled regional spending. As a result investors are leaving Spain. According to analysts at Credit Agricole Cheuvreux in Madrid, 100 billion euros (132 billion) have left Spain, including distress sales- coming from insurance companies, pension and sovereign wealth funds reducing holdings of Spanish bonds.

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China's new foreign policy team under the Jinping-Keqiang administration. Foreign minister Yang Jiechi, becomes state councilor, and senior official on the team. The new foreign minister Wang Yi, was China's ambassador to Japan 2004-2007. The new ambassador to the U.S. is Cui Tiankai, a diplomat who graduated from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in the U.S. Cui was ambassador to Japan 2007-2009. Managing the China-Japan and China-U.S. relationships is critical for China because China depends on U.S. and Japanese companies for investment and new technology, for continued economic progress. The relationship has been affected by the territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea. Germany as an advanced technology manufacturer and commodity exporters Australia, Canada, Argentina and Brazil depend on the Chinese market for exports, creating an interwoven economic dynamic that is likely to be the dominant factor in relations. This is also the perception of Li Keqiang who told a press conference in Beijing that the competition with the U.S. has been overemphasized, that he "does not believe conflicts between great powers are inevitable." Foreign affairs remains subordinate to domestic policy and priorities in China, as China tackles the problem of reorienting its economy to give an important place to the private sector and consumers. Itself not an easy task, as prime minister Keqiang pointed out at his first press conference: "Talking the talk is not as good as walking the walk." One of Keqiang's main allies in this effort is Robert Zoellick, former president of the World Bank, who helped put together with China's DRC, the report "China: 2030," outlining these priorities....

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Jurgen Kroger, is the chief negotiator for the European Commission, and Poul Thomsen, heads the IMF negotiating team, for the 78 billion euros in loans extended to Portugal under a bailout agreement. Kroger offered his views on the agreement in Lisbon. Kroger said he was convinced that the program gives Portugal the means to boost growth and jobs, as it builds a sustainable and competitive economy. Two thirds of the loans come from the EU at an interest rate that is yet to be set. The yield on Portugal's 10 year bonds keeps rising and is now at 10.20%. The IMF will provide one third of the funds. The IMF's Thomsen said the issue of interest rates was addressed by arranging for two thirds of the loan package money coming in the first of the three years of the program. What this does is to take Portugal out of the markets for medium and long term debt for a "little over two years" he said and gives Portugal the "breathing space" it needs to restore credibility before going to the financial markets. The fear expressed by analysts is that the tough austerity measures in the programs of the EU and IMF can cause the economies of these countries to worsen, making it even harder to repay the much larger debts when the loan package money is added to the original debt. The IMF and the EU negotiators had to create a credible program for recovery in the light of these facts. Already Portugal's finance minister is predicting a contraction in the Portuguese economy of 2% in 2011, and 2% in 2012. The negotiators appear to have taken this into account in setting interest rates. Portugal will pay the IMF an interest rate of 3.25% for the first 3 years, with the rate going to 4.25 in the fourth year. By comparison Greece's loans are for seven years with an average interest rate of 4.2%. Ireland's seven year loans carry an interest rate of 5.8%, which it is working to renegotiate. To give Portugal more breathing space the terms of the loans set a slower reduction in the budget deficit than originally planned. Portugal gets to cut its budget deficit to 5.9% of GDP in 2011, and 4.5% of GDP in 2012. The 3% target is set for 2013, one year later. Economists such as Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics, say the loan package will only increase Portugal's debt and lead to a larger default later on when the debt amount owed is larger. The debt restructuring solution is being actively debated in the EU, including the risks that European banks would take large hits. Negotiators are also mindful of keeping any negative impact on Spain as low as possible. As Portugal's financing costs have risen, Spain's have risen also. Spain offered higher rates to sell 3.4 billion euros of five year bonds on May 5, with the average yield on Spain's bond sale rising to 4.55%, up from 4.39% on March 3. ...

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This mortgage crisis could last a long time. House prices now down 10% could fall 30%. Losses on these mortgages could total $400 billion or 3% of total economic output. Similar to the losses in the savings and loan crisis of the eighties. The complexity of the crisis cuts two ways in one respect it prolongs the crisis because it makes it very hard to figure out what is inside which kind of package of securtieis and who holds them. Mortgages are dispersed among banks and 11,000 investment pools each with hundreds or thousands of investors. And many of these pools have been further repackaged into specialized funds known as structured investment vehicles and collaterized debt obligations that were created for these mortgages. It requires huge computing power and lots of people to figure out what is inside each package of securties. And the other effect is that because of this opaqueness or lack of transparency no one in the banking system knows who has large exposure and may run into difficulties like a Northern Rock bank in Britain or a Citigroup or UBS so that banks are not keen on lending to each other and raises the bank lending rate to each other. Banks also want to increase their reserve as a cushion against hidden losses and so are afraid to lend and lend at higher rates and after asking for stringent terms from lenders. This will create a prolonged period of credit tightnesss which would affect business expansion in a serious way. On the other hand as said earlier it cuts 2 ways and the positive side to this is that the losses tend to be overestimated in a crisis with lack of transparency or high degree of opaquenesss as Seidman who was a key person in settling the Savings and Loan Crisis told the National Press Club this month. Another negative efect in terms of credit availability for business is that there is less demand for securities in this kind of environment and business cannot get that much money from the capital markets. Cerberus found this out quickly when it found few buyers for the securities it hoped to sell to fund a portion of its buyout of Chrysler. One thing that will help the US as this crisis plays out is the better picture for exports with a falling dollar.The larger companies with international operations will have more business overseas and will export more to other countries especially to the high growth countries like China, India, Russia and Brazil as well as other countries in South America, Asia and Europe. Infrastructure spending will be huge in these countries and companies like General Electric, Caterpillar and others will benefit and companies like GM will expand more overseas. This should help the dollar and the current account deficit in a few years. It would also cushion the blow from this crisis. Overall this crisis could play out for longer than 3 years if consumer spending deteriorates significantly in 2008-2009. ...

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Hon Hai has about 800,000 workers. About 400,000 are employed in the southern industrial town of Shenzhen. After a number of worker suicides (13 people have committed or attempted to commit suicide in 2010 so far), the company has announced that it will give 20% raise to its workers. Workers at one plant in Longhua are paid 900 yuan or $132, the legal minimum wage in Guangdong province, though many workers work overtime at 1.5 times the standard rate. The company is secretive about its activities and uses the trade name of Foxconn. It makes personal computers and other products for Apple, HP and other companies. The company uses a military style discipline and it is reported that there is excessive stress in working conditions.

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VW's global plans to increase sales and surpass Toyota. Efforts to increase sales in the U.S. by redesigning the Passat and having it compete with the Toyota Camry in the same price range of about $20,000. To develop new small cars for Asian markets VW has taken a 20% stake in Suzuki, giving it access to small car technology. Suzuki deal gives VW access to the Indian market. VW plans are to double the network of dealers in China to 1600 in 5 years and a sales target of 2 million cars for China. VW has stumbled before in the U.S. and lacks a presence in Asia outside of China. This is about to change.

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India's National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority placed pricing controls on frequently used antibiotics including Ciprofloxacin, diabetic drugs including Metformin, and heart medications. It also said it would audit manufacturers to ensure that normal production continues. The pricing authority acts under a 1955 law that requires pricing to be affordable for essential drugs needed by the vast majority of poor people in the country. Some mass consumption drugs are now imported where it is unprofitable to make them in India. In the case of other drugs the volume increases from lower prices increases access to medicines, and the volume makes up for the price cuts. An example cited by the pricing authority is essental antibiotic (especially for children), Augmentin, where the prices dropped by 40% but the volume increases as it became more affordable have more than made up for the price reductions, with overall sales higher than before the price cuts.