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Emmanuel Macron graduated from Sciences Po University in 2004 with a degree in public affairs. He joins the Finance Ministry as an inspector and then buys himself out of government service contract by 2008 to join a private bank. He arranges an acquisition from Nestle and other business deals during this period. In 2012 he is appointed as deputy secretary general for the president's office after Francois Hollande a socialist is elected to the presidency. In 2014 he is offered the position of Minister of Industry and Digital Affairs in the second Manuel Valls government. He makes some changes to French government but opposes the wealth tax or tax on business, and is generally pro-business, though he acts as a member of the Socialist party.  He uses this period to build momentum for his own run for the presidency as support for Hollande falters having lost support from his working class base with Macron and Valls inspired changes.  Macron finally announces he will run for the presidency forming his own En Marche movement which he finances with his own fund raising. Throughout this period right up to the election in 2017 Macron has not run for public office. When he wins the presidency in that year he lacks the experience needed as the youngest president in French history at the age of 39. Like another young president Obama he handles his public image with the media for his En Marche movement promising to unblock France. This public image and his lack of experience makes him impervious to the social changes going on in France that lead to the yellow vest protests in 2018. This is a period when there are changes in the midwest as workers in Michigan and other midwestern states turn away from Hillary Clinton and Obama.  French workers are in the position of workers in the US with the decline of manufacturing, much of it shifted with the supply chain to China and Japan, and the gap opening between rural and urban tech educated areas. Macron follows Obama's quick rise from Senator to run for president yet lacks experience, and lacks sufficient grasp of the social changes with loss of manufacturing, the wide gaps between rural and urban tech educated people, conditions in the rural and farming areas. Macron survives this period, is reelected in 2022 with the help of socialist Melenchon voters. He says he will govern differently, less distant from average Frenchmen, but his instincts are to push for pension reform. At a time of cost of living crisis, and when the French budget office says the change in pension from 62 to 64 was not critical at the present time when inflation was hitting the public after the pandemic. Macron does this by Article 49 in the way he has done under the Manuel Valls government, by executive action alone. This time he faces a no confidence motion in parliament in March 2023 following some of the largest protests France has seen in years, with two thirds of the French according to FR24 opposing the change in pension law. Women see this as coming at a time when age discrimination hurts their chances of earning a living after 50 years of age.  Age discrimination is widespread in France, in a way it is not in Germany, say reports in the NYT. And with the cost of living crisis acts as a major hurdle for the average French person, if pensions are delayed without addressing these cultural issues in France. The result is that the protests have substance and Macron is seen as not sensitive to this at a time when he lacks a majority in parliament. ...

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U.S. president Trump's statement calling for a list of goods for tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods leaves China without a clear response and facing new risks. The U.S. exports about $150 billion in goods to China so that China would have to impose penalties to respond at the same level. Placing restrictions on American firms on access to China's market, and imposing other penalties would have the effect of reinforcing the perception of unfair practices targeting American business and lead to hardening of U.S. response.  The U.S. sees itself as being in a better position with the U.S. economy experiencing a growth trend. China with large local government and bank debt faces a difficult situation. President Jinping's policy of reducing the risks of bad debt in the banking system involved sacrificing some growth to stabilize the system. China's GDP growth in 2017 was 6.9%, the target at 6.5%. Future targets and actual growth now look to be much lower.The trade war with the U.S. has the effect of dampening growth leading to calls for the central bank to loosen its monetary stance. In response to Trump's announcement the People's Bank of China pumped $31 billion into the nation's banks. China is studying Japan's response in the 1980's and 1990's when the U.S. took strong action against Japan's growing trade surplus. Japan responded by appreciating its currency and using stimulus to cushion the effect of lower exports on the economy. The stimulus led to the housing bubble and over time a period of low growth and stagnant economy. The large China stimulus in 2008-2009 has compounded the problems in the banking system. Not deleveraging and controlling financial risks in China's banking system because of the trade war would bring a new set of risks. ...

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The Journal's Jeff Bennett talks with Rodney O'Neal, the CEO of Delphi Automotive. O'Neal says Delphi's success depends on focussing on advanced technologies where emerging market producers are less able to compete. He has focussed on 33 product lines which are 'green,' safe' and connected.' If it doen't create value then revenue and cost numbers are wrong, is O'Neal's lesson from the bankruptcy filing. He likes the chaotic discussion coming form strong debate, where views are expressed with passion and counterpoints made, and he takes this debate seriously, because as he sees it choosing the right course is a significant task in itself, which takes much time to correct if wrong. There are major improvements in emission and fuel economy ahead and a high tech future for the automobile industry. He see America's future in high-tech where America can do better than emerging market producers, and ensuring that the steady flow of exceptional American talent continues to be channelled properly....

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This piece in the Economist magazine points out why people in Portugal, Spain and Italy resent the remarks of Dutch finance minister, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, current head of the Eurogroup council of finance ministers, In an intervew with Germany daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, he said he was proud of the solidarity shown by northern European countries with the southern ones, but solidarity he said means obligations- " I cannot spend all my money on schnapps and women, and then ask for your support."  It also points out that Dijsselbloem's Labor Party lost three fourths of its seats in the recent Dutch elections and so is an unrepresentative presence in the Eurogroup. By supporting austerity policies in a coalition with a centre right party the Labor Party lost most of its seats. Dijsselbloem did this in the EU with strict rules for Italy for injecting money to recapitalize its banks and increase growth that have hurt Italy, and earned the resentment of Mr. Renzi, says the Economist magazine.He may even be replaced by an official from Spain or another southern European country, says the magazine. In any case it does little for EU unity at a sensitive time, and was a serious mistake. The timing was even worse, as the EU faces a test in elections in France and Germany, after Netherlands, and needs popular perceptions to be positive about what has been achieved since the dark days of 1945. ...

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Fuel efficiency rules require average fuel efficiency in the U.S. of 35 mpg by 2016. The debate is now on what to do for 2017 to 2025. New technology such as the P2 systems for hybrids already used in VW, Nissan and Hyundai vehicles makes a 20% increase in fuel efficiency possible. Large investments are being made to bring new technology to bear on increasing fuel efficiency significantly. Government agencies are looking at different scenarios by which the new fuel economy standards beyond 2017-2025 could be set between 47 mpg and 62 mpg. An additional factor is the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions- at 47 mpg the reduction would be 3%, at 62 mpg the reduction would be 6%. Another factor is how much the impact is on the cost of vehicles and reduced cost on gasoline. Here there is a wide range in the numbers for average mpg rules at 62 mpg- with EPA estimates at $2800-$3500 increase in vehicle cost and $5000 savings in fuel cost, Centre for Automotive Research estimates at $9790 increase in vehicle cost. The 62 mpg translates into "real world" actual efficiency of 45 mpg. In April 2011, 17 senators put out a letter of support for the 62 mpg proposal. There is a public value involved in this that is also significant- the reduced dependence on foreign oil means savings in defense expenditures in parts of the Middle East, and an economy that is less impacted by volatility in the price of oil. As this aspect of public value or benefits cannot be quantified easily even though they are significant, this may tend to be lost in the debate and the politics of fuel efficiency. For automakers there is significant marketing value in having a visible and strong presence in fuel efficient vehicles because of perception as forward looking- something that hurt Detroit carmakers in the last decade. During periods of gasoline prices at $5 a gallon this provides carmakers with an extra cushion of safety in securing car sales. Carmakers in one country such as the U.S. also have to worry about what carmakers in other countries such as Japan and Germany are doing- if the standards in the U.S. develop a gap compared to other countries developing advanced fuel efficiency technologies this poses significant risks because of the global nature of the automobile marketplace. See the group "Asleep at the Spigot" for more details on this. Many of these less quantifiable factors do not get the attention they deserve because they are significant from experience but not easily quantified. Throw into this the large unknown of what new technologies not yet developed lie ahead with a burst of effort by one country or another, which bring cost reductions at the same time - and the debate requires as much a good sense of what is the path offering the greatest advantages in years ahead than a pure exercize in numbers. ...

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Friedman says Putin acted emotionally by letting impulsive reaction to the anti-Russian feelings in western Ukraine determine Russian policy following the collapse of the Yakunovych government. The months long Russian response in Crimea and eastern Ukraine may have secured Russian pride at a large cost. This includes the damage to the relationship with Germany, seting the EU on a path to look for other sources of energy to reduce dependence on Russian gas, a natural gas deal with China in which the price was kept "a secret" and may have provided China with a bargaining edge considering the timing of the negotiations. The most severe impact is in the loss of confidence within Russia, reminding the Putin administration that though the economy has grown in the Putin years it is still fragile and connected to the global economy. The capital outflows of the magnitude of $160 billion at a time of high inflation and sharply slowing growth actually put at risk the gains Putin and Russia made in the last decade, and risk the future agenda to improve the standard of living of the Russian people eyond the major cities. Putin's own assessment would eventually be closer to that of Alexei Kudrin. Kudrin, finance minister in Putin's previous term, correctly saw the dangers of impulsive policy concentrated in one figure, and the suppression of other voices including the opposition needed for Russia to be governed in a manner similiar to western Europe, to attain a similiar level of economic progress and standards of living. In today's global economy even the U.S., France, UK and states inside Germany need foreign investment for jobs, new ideas and technology, and the opinion expressed on media television and internet shapes investor sentiment to a larger degree than fully understood....

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This report in NYT shows the movement of Mexicans who migrated to the US in the 1970's in an earlier migration and the problems they faced seeking a better life in America on the east and west coastal cities. In 1971 Ruperto and Eustacia Enriquez migrate from Puebla, Mexico to New York. They make two migrations within the US after a mugging incident in Brooklyn in 1980. First to Santa Ana, California where they find life difficult with gang crime in neighborhoods, and move to an affluent suburb in the east side of Seattle. Their son Daniel gets a Bachelors degree in philosophy from the University of Washington. In 1996 he returns to New York to study for a Masters degree in Latin American Studies at New York University.  After 25 years in New York and taking up a jobs two financial firms he reflects a strivers mentality, always looking for self-improvement. He helps his younger sister with an application to win a Fullbright scholarship in Germany. Another sister works in Washington as a business analyst. He helped a brother who became a school teacher in New York public schools. Daniel found an apartment in Park Slope, Brooklyn and by 2013 joined another financial firm in its global investment research group coordinating publications.  The story reflects some of the growing pains of Mexican Americans who migrated to America in the 1970's in the earlier migrations. In 2022 Daniel Enriquez 48 years was shot on the subway while going for Sunday Brunch, 25 years after returning to New York City. Crime was once again up in the city after the pandemic. 950 crime offenses happened in the subway system for the year till May the same as in 2019. Subway ridership was 40% lower in May this year.   ...

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Apple App Store sales are estimated at $15 billion for 2014, increasing by 50% from 2013. Apple says it has directly or indirectly created one million jobs in the U.S., with two thirds of this in software development by developers to run programs on iPhone, iPad and iPod. The App Store opened in 2008 after the introduction of the iPhone in 2007. Other jobs created by Apple are the 300,000 working at parts and materials suppliers, or construction workers at Apple facilities. Apple employs directly 66,000 workers in the U.S., with 30,000 of this in retail stores.

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The Gallois Report and France's efforts to improve competitiveness under the Hollande administration.

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The International Energy Agency lowers its global oil demand forecasts on Dec. 11, 2014, leading to further drop in the price of oil with oil futures in electronic trading for WTI at $58.89 on New York Mercantile Exchange, and Brent crude at $62.83 on ICE in London, for January 2015. The price of WTI U.S. oil dropped to $59.95 on Dec. 11, 2014.

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Polls by Renato Mannheimer show popular support for the People of Freedom party of Mr. Berlusconi, which won 37% of the vote in 2008, is now down to 17% This comes after a series of corruption scandals. The most recent involves embezzlement of 1.7 million dollars by a politician from the Rome-Lazio regional government. New parties are being formed which are drawing increasing support. The Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo, a former comedian, which opposes being in the eurozone and calls it a "noose" for Italy shows 18% support, according to a poll by the SWG agency. In that poll the Italy of Values party had 6% support, and the Left Ecology party 6%. Mannheimer says only one third of Italian voters are now in favor of the large established parties, indicating a big change is underway in Italian politics. The new parties are also critical of prime minister Monti's policies. This happens just as political and business leaders in Italy are calling for Monti to run for office to continue policy changes he has made to improve Italy's competitiveness and lead to economic recovery. Monti, a former EU Commissioner, was appointed as prime minister after pressure from German chancellor Merkel and the EU led to a loss of parliamentary support for Mr Berlusconi with key members of his own party defecting. After passing legislation for changes to Italian labor laws and making other shanges to improve Italy's competitiveness since taking office in November 2011, Monti is now seen in Italy, and outside Italy in EU circles, as the only person who can lead Italy out of the economic crisis; even though his reforms and austerity measures have not proved popular....

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Inflation in China and rising wages are pushing up costs for American manufacturers. The pressure on China, most recently in Congress, is helping to push up the value of the yuan. This combined trend is making it attractive for some manufacturers to bring factories home to the U.S. A trend in the U.S. towards non-unionized labor and the new trend to a two-tier wage level- with lower wages for entry level workers- and the shedding of legacy health care costs, is creating a more cost competitive labor force in the U.S. This extends from older industries such as furniture and auto components to newer industries and technology. The new factories setup in the U.S. use technologies that require a smaller number of workers, in most cases less than half the number of workers that were employed earlier. This adds another element in cost efficiency, though it means fewer jobs are created with new plants.

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The WSJ's Alessandra Galloni speaks with Mario Monti, the Italian premier, for in-depth interviews. Here Galloni and Walker provide an account of what happened during and after the June 28, 2012 summit of European leaders. Monti described the comments of ECB president Draghi in early August- about ECB buying of bonds of Italy and Spain being within the mandate of the ECB if monetary transmission channels were not working properly to reduce yields- as a bold effort following the agreement made at the June 28 summit to support Italy and Spain. Monti expressed the idea that Draghi should feel morally and politically justified if and when he makes the bold moves to rescue the euro. The only problem he says is whether one has to wait till the night before the euro is about to disintegrate for this to happen. This is the first time Monti has publicly expressed the possibility of this happening.

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As exports and manufacturing decline, China is continuing to maintain high rates of fixed asset investment with the focus now away from factory construction to infastructure like roads, bridges and rails. The National BUreau of Statistics reported that urban fixed asset investment expanded 26.5% in Jan-Feb 2009, compared to 26.1% growth rate for 2008. Fixed asset investment was 42% of GDP in 2008, according to JP Morgan strategist Jing Ulrich. Now it could go up higher to 45%. China's growth has been off-balance say experts, now it is becoming even more so. As long as factory construction as fixed asset investment a lot of new jobs were being created in the manufacturing sector, now these jobs are not being created. China's small and mid sized companies that generated about half of the 4.42 trillion GDP, like GenTech of Mr Yu profiled in the other linked article in WSJ, and which created 90% of the new jobs, are now contracting. With smaller private consumption, and the efforts to improve the safety net and provide universal medical care inadequate and coming late, domestic demand will not help balance the economy and boost manufacturing. Private consumption is only 35% of GDP in China, a much lower percentage than India. The comparable figures for the US are 71%, UK 64%, Australia, Canada, France, Germany and Japan 57%. The balance is now heavily skewed towards government spending. Investment spending from HongKong and Taiwan, the home bases of industrialists with made for export industries inceased investment by 1% in Jan-Feb of 2009 from the year earlier, compared to 17% growth in all of 2008. And foriegn funded companies have comparable figures of 2% for Jan-Feb 2009 compared to 15% growth in all of 2008. Real estate investment growth also fell to 1% for Jan-Feb 2009 compared to 21% for all of 2008. In short the other pillars of growth in housing, and investments from Hong Kong, Taiwan and the West are declining. ...

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Irish voters rejected the Lisbon treaty 53% to 47%. Ireland joined the EU in 1973 and has gone during this period from the poorest country in the bloc to the second richest in per capita terms after Luxembourg. As the first attemp to get approval of an EU constitution for a closer political union was rejected by French and Dutch voters in 2005, the effort was modified to take out the EU flag and call it a treaty and not a constitution and to go the route of approval by parliaments in each country instead of elections. But Ireland's constitution required a referendum and now Ireland has rejected the treaty. The Irish generally have favored the EU so it will give more thought to those who favor closer political union about how to proceed from here. Opposition to it in Ireland was based on a fear that Irish taxes would have to be raised and make Ireland less attractive for investors, and fear that the EU's global free trade stance meant that cheap food imports would be forced on Ireland and hurt Irish agriculture, but the Lisbon treaty has little to do with taxes and farming. The Lisbon treaty calls for a EU President that is appointed and ceate a Foreign Minister who can speak for the EU and greater powers to legislate in areas like immigration. How will EU supporters proceed from here? One is to go for ratification by the Parliaments of the 26 other countries in the EU without risking a vote. Another is to work on a two speed Europe with core countries like Germany and France and Spain and Portugal and Italy forming a political union and countries like the UK and Netherlands taking a more trade and economic based union approach. Also subject of discussion will be how to get the message of European union across, what is it about, and what are the institutions for, according to one expert at Oxford University....

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Honda plans to move more of its manufacturing to the U.S. as the value of the yen drops below 80 to the dollar in 2011. Honda faces problems from parts shortages after floods in Thailand, and U.S. market share down 1.5 percentage points to 9% in 2011. Honda's profit declined by more than 50% for the third quarter of 2011. The yen trading at 77 to the dollar in Dec 2011 is making it impossible for Honda to make a profit from vehicles made in Japan and sold in the U.S. Honda plans to double the capacity of the Civic plant in Greensburg, Indiana, increase capacity at its other assembly plants. It will build a new plant in Celaya, Mexico, in 2014, to manufacture the Fit subcompact. This will raise North American production from 1.29 million vehicles to close to 2 million. About 200,000 to 300,000 of these vehicles will be exported to other international markets. Profits on small subcompacts are small, making manufacture of the Fit more economical in North America than in Japan. In 2011 Honda manufactured between 30-40% of vehicles in Japan, the new plans are to reduce this to 10-20% in the next 10 years, a major shift....

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Tata Motors gets a great deal to have 2 wellknown brands in which Ford has invested some $10 billion for a billion adn half. Is favored to make the deal. Both brands may be turning the corner after years of effort and Tata's management resources and investment potential could make this a good deal for Tata Motors. But there are some risks including the ones mentioned. The US market which accounts for more than 25% of sales is declining, and the fuel saving technologies needed to compete in Europe after 2012 with new mandated emissions reductions mean that Tata will have to develop these technologies in a market where the Germans have significant advantages with their fuel saving technology development. The Halewood factory in Liverpool where the Land Rover Freelander and the Jaguar X-type are made is at risk because with total output of 261,000 Tata may decide to close one of the three factories. This acquisition will push Tata up the learning curve in American and European markets, knowledge which it can use in developing markets for new models it develops in the future with innovation and aggressive pricing....

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Hardy and Merced take an inside look at what happened at Autonomy Inc that resulted in the charge of $8.8 billion by H-P in Nov. 2012. The problems start with the hiring of Lee Apotheker, a former CEO of German software maker SAP, as H-P's new CEO in the beginning of 2011. This comes after CEO Mark Hurd is fired over relations with a female employee. Apotheker starts out within months of joining H-P with some precipitious moves that raise questions about his decisions- he dumps the new H-P tablet within weeks of joining, and follows this with a move to shift H-P out of its PC business and focus on software. To do this he pays ten times revenue for Autonomy Inc., a British software maker which has grown through acquisitions and not invested enough in advancements for its software, according to a piece by Al Lewis in the WSJ in August 2011. Autonomy's business is software that analyzes and finds patterns in voluminious data like e-mails, online data, web surfing. The tech community and analysts sees this as a risky investment from the start with Apotheker overpaying for Autonomy. Apotheker has failed to look at H-P's record in acquisitions with the failed Palm acquisition costing H-P over a billion dollars. H-P has a poor record of integrating companies. This proves to be especially true with Autonomy with founder Mike Lynch keeping a distance from Palo Alto headquarters by staying mostly in his London office. Apotheker is fired by the H-P Board within months of taking office and the Autonomy managers including Lynch leave H-P in the following months. Alarmed by a falloff in Autonomy sales, H-P's new CEO Meg Whitman sent a team in May 2012 to review the books of Autonomy. This results in finding "serious accounting improprieties." The problems are caught when a senior finance official at the London Autonomy offices points them out. What Autonomy did before selling out to H-P is to sell low end hardware servers at a loss, and disguise the loss by inflating marketing expense, resulting in marketing expenses going up just as it was trying to sell the company as a pure software company. Middle men who sold the Autonomy software reported sales that were made up and licensing revenue was taken before it was received. Analysts at Forrester Research say Autonomy had not invested in R&D, and did not make regular software releases, had poor customer relations, no regular customer feedback, and lacked transparency on future product plans. The question goes back to how did Apotheker make such decisions without giving enough time, with the due diligence reported to the head of strategy Robison and not the CFO as is normal, and how did he fail to catch the obvious failure to invest in the company R&D? Apotheker described his approach in a February 18, 2011 interview with the WSJ's Ben Worthen. He told Worthen a joke about the Swedish parliament where members discuss a proposal to move driving from the left to driving on the right, by doing this gradually. Apotheker's analogy turns out to be misplaced, his approach brash and dangerous, and the H-P's Board's confidence in their new hire misplaced. It turns out that H-P's previous CEO Mark Hurd came in for criticism for not investing enough in R&D. The money wasted in these acquisitions leaves H-P at a severe disadvantage for increasing investments in R&D when margins and sales are declining in the printer and PC business. On Nov. 20, 2012, H-P share price dropped 12% to under $12. H-P reported a $6.9 billion loss in third quarter 2012. Revenue for the full fiscal year declined 5% to $120.4 billon, and earnings declined 23% to $8 billion. ...