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Nagourney and Dougherty of the NYT give this report on the housing crisis in California by 2017 with the median cost of a home skyrocketing to twice the figure for the U.S. This price is now $500,000. The result is longer commutes even for people with incomes over $150,000 a year, stretching to as much as 2 hours one way. It means people lacking housing stay in vans with improvised kitchens and other sleeping arrangements. Not enough homes are being built because of strict zoning and planning regulations that are kept in place by neighborhood groups, effectively excluding outsiders. Now its not just the coastal areas that are affected but the whole state. Governor Brown of California tried to pass a measure in 2016 that would push communities to build more affordable housing, and ran into opposition from local officials and environmentalists. Now the opinion in the state is changing with younger people denied a chance at decent housing at the forefront and some elected officials such as the Mayor of Los Angeles, Mr. Eric Garcetti. A new bill in the state legislature would make it harder for cities that are falling behind in building housing to lose the right for City Council to hold back on approval of new construction, effectively bypassing it. California's law capping property taxes after Proposition 13 was passed in 1978 has also held back construction. Other factors are the building of new offices for  companies in the tech boom around San Francisco without a corresponding effort to build new homes for these new office workers. California was slow to respond to housing needs for young people, with only 311,000 housing units built since 2006. ...

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Browning points out the record Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) average was not in 2007 but in 2000 when adjusted for inflation- on Jan 14, 2000. Since 1994 consumer prices measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics have risen by 55%. Using 1994 dollars the March 5, 2013 closing DJIA average is at 9256, the 2007 high at 10194, and the record on Jan 14, 2000 at 10424, according to calculations made by Bespoke Investment Group. In inflation adjusted terms these calculations show the Dow barely making any progress in relation to the 2000 figure. When dividends and taxes are included, Browning says the inflation adjusted Dow is still not back up to the 2000 level. For retirees and sensible investors the real value of this money has to be taken account. Yale University professor, who founded the CAPE cyclically adjusted P/E, confirms what Browning says in an article in the WSJ March 10, 2013. There Shiller says that the inflation adjusted S&P 500 index has not made it to the 2000 level, so that investors have not made up for money lost in inflation in 13 years....

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David Cote, CEO of Honeywell International, says U.S. corporations have $1 trillion sitting on the sidelines ready to be invested if business can be provided with more certainty about U.S. finances through successful deficit reducion negotiations. He is the most active CEO behind the Fix the Debt organization and is respected by both sides. In the fiscal cliff negotiations he has taken messages in both directions from Democrats and Republicans. Cote is a former executive of General Electric, who has led a turnaround at Honeywell. Large business stayed out of the deficit negotiations in 2011 which brough on the fiscal cliff arrangement of deep cuts in defense and automatic tax increases if no agreement is reached by Jan. 1, 2013. Cote and CEO's behind Fix the Debt have decided to engage with both political parties in the negotiations in 2011-2013.

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In a policy shift the Bank of England's Governor, Mark Carney, announces that the central bank will keep interest rates low and bond purchases at the current level till the unemployment rate drops to 7%. This is similiar to the policy action of the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, to keep interest rates low till the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%. Carney said conditions under which this could change are if inflation increased or financial stability was affected by the easy monetary policy. He said: "Our biggest concern is the possibility that as the recovery gathers pace, that there is an unwarranted change in expectations about the pace of the withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus." "That is one of the principal points of providing explicit forward guidance." BOE said the official unemployment rate was 7.8% in the three months to May, and it is unlikely to decline to the 7% level till early 2016. The inflation rate for Britain was 2.9% in June. The higher inflation rate is partly due to the higher taxes and large increase in university tution fees which are unlikely to be repeated. The BOE's Monetary Policy Committee sees inflation declining to 2% by 2015....

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Said, Kent and Faucon describe the meetings and maneouvring between oil producers that led to the decision to not cut production at the November 2014 OPEC meetings in Vienna. This led to a drop in Brent crude down to below $70 by Dec. 2014, with Russia, Iran and Venezuela losing, countries such as India, and motorists benefitting from lower oil prices.

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Greek leader Alexis Tsipras of the Syriza party, the Coalition of the Radical Left, talks to Angelos and Granitsas of the Journal. He says it is in the interests of the European Union to continue funding to Greece, but if the EU stops the funding Greece will stop paying its debt. It will then use the funds going to the debt burden for paying retirees and workers. And it will also tear up the loan agreements signed earlier, and scrap plans for layoff of 150,000 workers in the government services by 2015. He would also reverse measures to lower private sector wages. He also looks favorably on nationalizing banks to better channel lending to where its needed. In his view it will be difficult for Greece either way. Even with funding Greece's GDP is expected to fall 5-7% in 2012, following several years of declining GDP.

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In a major turnaround yields on the 10 year bonds of Italy and Spain declined significantly on Nov. 29, 2012 to 4.55% for Italy and 5.32% for Spain. Risks remain especially if Spain needs a bailout from the EU in early 2013, or Spanish yields rise with an increase in the bonds issued to 125 billion euros for 2013, say analysts.

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The director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy says he worries about the effect of automation on work performed by garment workers in countries such as Bangladesh. As machines become adept at performing the difficult tasks performed by humans, automation is spreading in places like Bangladesh. This report shows the Mohammadi Group which makes sweaters for H&M, Zara and other brands replacing 500 workers in its Bangladesh factory with 173 German machines. As wages grow in countries that made garment products such as Bangladesh, India, China and Cambodia are affected. A 2016 International Labor Organization Study predicts some Asian countries could lose as much as 80% of the apparel, textile jobs as automation spreads. This presents a huge problem for these countries as creating high skilled jobs is a challenge in these Asian countries. In Bangladesh where 2 million new jobs are needed each year to keep pace with increasing labor force, the 300,000 new textile industry jobs a year for 2003-2010 have shrunk now to about 60,000 a year, according to World Bank data.  The garment industry in Bangladesh provides 80% of the exports and 3 million  manufacturing jobs, reducing significantly the number of people below the poverty line. After a fire at a garment factory in Bangladesh the government set a monthly minimum wage of $64, an increase of 77%, with automatic annual raises. Factory owners moved to suburbs and used more machines to deal with labor unrest. Some garment workers became rickshaw drivers, a scooter type taxi in India. The Bangladeshi garment industry is continuing to be cost competitive by reducing costs through automation, increasing exports by 19.5% from 2013 to mid 2016, increasing jobs by 4.5% during this period, according to the local industry association figures.   ...

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An exceptional account by Melissa Eddy of how Germans are reacting to the German government's underinvestment in childcare centers. Germany's cabinet approved a bill that provides $190 monthly child care allowance for mothers who opt not to use day care centers provided by the government. This is supported by the Bavarian party, Christian Social Union, on the grounds that it gives an alternative to mothers to use private day care or nanny care. In practice many of the mothers using the allowance are expected to be lower paid workers who may decide not to work. The government has budgeted $500 million for the allowance for 2013. This is opposed by all opposition parties , and in a rare show of unity by business employer associations and unions, both say it "creates a false incentive to quit work." Axel Plunnecke of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, says studies show low income families are among those who benefit most from early childhood education. About 100,000 lower qualified and lower paid workers could see this as attractive and quit working. The western part of Germany lacks enough child day care slots, so this is seen as not investing enough where its most needed, and Germany lags behind other countries like France in day care centers. The government is investing $15 million over five years to expand the number of child care centers. The goal is to have 750,000 child care slots by 2013, according to Ms. Kristina Schroeder, the family minister, herself a mother giving birth while in office. The measure was vigorously debated and controversial from the beginning because most many Germans see the $15 million years over 5 years as underinvestment in vital educational infrastructure. The $500 million is better invested in building modern day care facilities, they believe, especially because the children from lower income mothers not benefitting from daycare facilities will still need educational help, and German industry needs more women in the labor force to be competitive. Five years ago under reforms of parental support the 3 years of help to mothers was reduced to 1 year, resulting in an increase in the numbers of women working from 32% in 2002 to 40% by 2011, according to the Ministry of Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth....

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Republicans hold a strong advantage with the white blue collar vote going into the U.S. presidential elections of 2012. This comes after a strong showing in the congressional elections of 2010.

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Infrastructure development in Indonesia neglected by previous administrations gets a boost under President Jokowi. Since 2014 Jokowi has taken advantage of a fall in oil prices to cap the fuel subsidy given by the government.  This has allowed more money to go into infrastructure projects. In 2014 $15 billion was allocated to infrastructure, increasing by 2017 to $30 billion.  Jokowi has plans for 222 national strategic projects , including roads, railways, bridges, power stations. Of this 127 are under construction, 20 completed. Under president Suharto from 1968 to 1998 for 3 decades infrastructure was neglected. One example is the situation in Jakarta where only 4% of the residents are connected to the sewer system. Most of the investment is being made (80%) by the government. Much remains to be done in this densely populated country with many islands and poor roads. A China supported plan to connect Jakarta with Bandung by high speed rail remains held up for 2 years with difficulties in moving people in Java's densely populated areas. ...

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This article in The Lancet published in February 2018 throws much light on how the ban on gain of function research on virus was lifted -research that carries with it the danger of increasing transmission of virus if something unexpected happens in the manipulation of a virus. It was lifted in 2018 in the US by officials in the US Health Ministry, NIH and HHS. The Cambridge group of scientists and experts opposed lifting the ban on such dangerous research that could make the virus more contagious through manipulation. Epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of Harvard School of Public Health wrote at the time that the lab research to create a more lethal strain of virus could lead to "an accidental pandemic" yet he was ignored. The public in America and in the world is unaware of how this created serious risks for public health in the world through the coronavirus.  Did US health officials lift the ban on such research without consulting other countries such as India, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, and the EU on its ramifications. Were public health experts and the publics themselves in the US and around the world not drawn into the discussion of public health and the dangers that existed. Not only did officials in HHS and NIH restart the research by lifting the ban but also sent funds overseas for such research- was this a proper or thoughtful action considering the risks involved.  Is enhanced surveillance of virus- a dubious benefit from manipulation of a virus- something a few health officials can decide for the whole world in addition to the US. How are health officials in one or two countries responsible to the people in India, Brazil, Europe and the poorest populations in the world in the world in Africa, Latin America, and Asia, people who have suffered devastating consequences from transmissibility of the virus, including children and older people with health problems. India, Brazil, Italy, Spain, France, UK, and other countries worst hit by the coronavirus must ask serious questions about how they can protect their people if institutions in the US and international institutions are seen as failing to protect world public health. ...

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The European Union response to Britain's decision to begin negotiations to leave the EU is a tough one that presents serious problems for Britain. EU Council president, Donald Tusk said that no talks on Britain's future trading relationship with the EU could take place till all the issues relating to Britain leaving have been resolved. Included is a bill of 60 billion euros, according to European authorites, for settling British committments in the EU. Tusk also said the EU wanted to see the rights of the 3 million EU citizens living in the EU, and the 1 million British citizens in the EU protected as a priority in negotiations. Without negotiations on a future trading relationship Britain faces tariffs and duties putting it at a disadvantage after the exit. Talks also cannot extend beyond March 2019 or new approval is needed from 27 EU states. The European parliament also has veto rights if the agreement is not seen as strong enough for the EU. Tusk says that Brexit has made the EU more united. Chancellor Merkel of Gemany has also separated exit from future trading relationship negotiations, the second only being discussed after the first is complete. The issue of Scottish independence also hangs in the balance, as the Scottish parliamentary leader Jack Salmond refused to accept prime minister May's point that her own constituency Islington had voted against Brexit yet she was negotiating for the whole of UK- Salmond responded in parliament that not taking Scotland's interests into account after it had voted against Brexit made "Scottish independence inevitable." The EU leaders are taking a calmer approach, in contrast to the more nationalist appeal in parliament to Tory back benches of prime minister May with promises she may have difficulty keeping.   ...

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This report by Martin in the NYT points out that Ohio no longer plays a critical role in U.S. presidential elections. It was critical for a Bush win over Gore, and president Obama carried it by 2 points against Romney in 2012. It is critical for Trump to win. For Hillary Clinton other states are gaining importance as they better reflect the demographic changes in the U.S. and the mix with minorities- states such as Georgia, N. Carolina, Colorado and Florida. Ohio has not seen an influx of Hispanics as other states, and is now more white, more evangelical voters, and reflects a mix that was prevalent earlier. 

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Chinese companies are building railways, power projects, airports and other infrastructure in East Africa. This report looks at work in Uganda building infrastructure projects and exploring for oil near Lake Albert. Chinese state owned banks provide access to financing for projects and other infrastructure companies build projects using about 60% of labour from China, on low interest rates but with payment over shorter periods than with World Bank projects. The U.S. lags far behind in investing in African infrastructure which badly needs modernization. 

The drawback of debt load is being balanced by exploring for oil in Uganda and keeping the debt load manageable. CNOOC is exploring for oil near Lake Albert. Uganda received $1.4 billion from 200 to 2014, in 2015 another $1.9 billion for 2 dams, and now $2.2 billion loan for new railways.

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The smartphone market is critical for Sony as it makes its way back to profitability in 2013. Sony sees smartphone unit sales growing at 50% in the year ending March 31, 2013, compared to a decline in unit sales of video camcorders of 9%, decline in digital compact cameras of 29%, and decline of televisions of 31%. The Sony-Ericsson joint venture was a world apart from the current Sony Mobile business. Sony Mobile executive vice president, Kaz Tajima, expressed his frustration that Sony was missing opportunities when working at the joint venture. Decisions came slowly as they had to be approved at different levels. Sony Mobile moves quickly on all decisionmaking. Companywide technological capabilities are also quickly available in designing a new product. The Experia Z uses all of Sony's technological capabilities in design, cameras, television and other areas. It now appears that the joint venture was the worst thing that happened to Sony. Sony bought out Ericsson's stake in the venture in 2011. Sony starts with global smartphone market share of about 4.5% and has a lot of catching up to do....

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Britain's prime minister David Cameron is having finance minister Osborne lead the negotiations with Germany and France on treaty changes for Britain to stay in the European Union, following his election promise to hold a referendum by 2017. The discussion about the prospects for changes show how difficult it will be for Britain to get the changes in the next 2 years. German chancellor Merkel supports Britain staying in the EU but only up to a point, and German public opinion does not show strong support for the kind of changes on immigration that Cameron is seeking. Support is also declining in countries like Poland because of the immigration issue. Merkel would like to see Britain in because of its open economy, free markets, and also because German contributions to the EU budget would increase significantly with the exit of Britain. Northern countries such as Sweden would also favor an effort to keep Britain inside the EU. On defence and foreign affairs EU without Britain would not carry the same weight and influence. Inside Britain Cameron faces problems with Euroskeptics inside the Conservative Party, and with the 13% popular vote that went to the UK Independence Party in the recent election. The uncertainty is not good for business and the economy of Britain, which is why Cameron is considering holding the referendum on the EU in 2016....

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Jumbo loan mortgages in dollars accounted for 20% of first lien mortgages in 2014, the first time since 2005, and back up from 5.5% in 2009 at the height of the subprime mortgage crisis. This part of the market for homes priced over $417,000 or $ 625,500 in pricier regions, has gained its footing faster than the rest of the market. Sales of existing single family homes between $750,000 and $1 million, were up 21% in June from the prior year, compared to an increase of 12.5% for homes between $100,000 and $250,000, with homes below $100,000 declining by 3%, according to the National Association of Realtors. The jumbo originations are closely correlated with the stock market. The loan performance criteria were tightened after the 2009 crisis leading to requirements of larger down payments and higher FICO credit scores. The strong loan performance is shown in the credit score for May 2015 of 770, and down payment of about 32% for jumbo loan originations, according to CoreLogic. Interest rates are also very close between smaller Fannie conforming mortgage loans and jumbo mortgages, 4.05% compared to 4.07% on jumbo loans. The higher demand is leading to competition between JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America in this part of the market. Chase is focussing on this part of the market with the strong loan performance- only 1.9% of jumbo mortgages being late 30 days or more compared to 6.5% for Fannie Freddie conforming loans, according to Black Knight Financial Services. As part of its strategy Chase offers minimum down payments of 15% and credit scores of 680 for single family homes as primary residence, starting August 5, 2015, down from 20% and 740 earlier, for mortgages between $1.5 million and $3 million, a change already made in 2014 for jumbo mortgages upto $1.5 million. Similiar move is made by Chase for lowering down payment on vacation homes and second homes. Wells Fargo also cut the minimum down payment- to 10.1% from 15% for jumbo mortages upto $1 million. ...

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S&P's faulty ratings on U.S. mortgage securities was a critical factor leading to the financial crisis of 2008-2009, and the deep recession that followed in the U.S. Recovery was only made possible by large government stimulus and central bank intervention with monetary easing on a massive scale. The effects are still evident after millions of people lost their homes in foreclosures and widening income inequality. Yet it took about 7 years before S&P accepted responsibility and settled with the Justice Department. Earlier S&P accused the Justice Department of suing the company in retaliation for a downgrade of U.S. government debt in 2011. In the convoluted upside down nature of such lawsuits and protests by defendents, McGraw Hill said that the settlement "contains no findings of violations of law." Yet the government produced 290 million documents in response to discovery requested by S&P. Associate U.S. Attorney General, Stuart Delery, the top negotiator for the government, says "put simply, the department brought this case because S&P committed fraud." Delery says no case in Justice Department history has produced this many documents. The Justice Department cited several instances of breach of duty in a statement signed by both parties. In 2007 an internal group's downgrade recommendation for a large number of mortgage securities was rejected by upper management because of concern S&P would lose business. In another cited instance S&P alters its ratings model for grading complex risky securities in 2004 with the goal of being able to issue grades for "2-3 notch improvements" and resulting "improving of S&P market share." S&P had about $1.9 billion in cash balances in third quarter 2014, say analysts, and the settlement was designed to set the right course but not hurt S&P in carrying out its role of issuing about 95% of ratings globally along with counterparts Moody's and Fitch. Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood says S&P's responsibility lies in that banks might be expected to do something shady, but credit ratings agencies were the ones the country looked up to to do the right thing and flag this....

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As Toyota Kirloskar moves to increase capacity at its plant in Bidadi, Bangalore, to 5000 units of the new compact car, localisation for components becomes abig part of the strategy. The goal is to achieve 90% localization by 2011 from 65% today, as parts imported from Japan cost more with the over 30% appreciation in the yen-rupee exchange rate. The Innova has 65% localization of components, and the Corolla has 45% which will be moved up to 75% and 50% respectively by 2010. The dealer network will be expanded from 82 to 150 by 2010-end and Toyota-Kirloskar wants to be in the semi-rural and rural towns. The pricing will be between aSantro top end varian and a Honda city entry variant, priced at Rs 5-7 lakhs.

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The increase in the Nasdaq Composite Index to 4000 by November 2013. In contrast to the period in 1999 the Nasdaq Index now has companies in the Index in a broader number of tech fields including medical technology, pharmaceuticals and consumer. Tech companies in the Index now have reliable tested products and generate significant revenues and profits. Apple has 8.02% representation in the Nasdaq Composite Index. Other companies are Microsoft with 5.15%, Google 4.80%, Amazon 2.88%, Intel 1.95%, Qualcomm 2.09%, Gilead, 1.88%, Amgen 1.42%. The Index is more diversified in 2013. B/E Aerospace and First Solar are part of the Index. About 13.5% are in Health Care technologies, including Celgene and Myriad Genetics. And 7.1% in Telecom, including SBA Communications. Priceline, Amazon are part of consumer internet companies in the Index. Tech based companies make up only 45% on the Index Composite compared to 66% in 1999, with these companies on stronger revenue and profit footing and not bid up speculatively as they were in 1999....

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The anti-corruption bill for creation of a Lokpal agency passed the lower and upper house of the Indian parliament in December 2013. It was stalled for two years after the efforts of political activist Anna Hazare's protest movement for passage of the bill. With national elections approaching in 2014 and the ruling Congress party's image bruised badly in state elections of Dec. 2013, party leaders decided to support the bill. In the elections in the capital Delhi a anti-corruption party, Aaam Aadmi (for the common man), created only recently, won a major part of the seats. In India corruption hurts not only at the national and local level as in China, but affects the daily life of the common man as bribes are required from ordinary people for anything to get done that requires approval from the huge government bureaucracy. In that sense it takes a toll on economic development and affects the quality of services received by the vast majority of people, which is why the party calls itself "common man."...

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The unofficial exchange rate for the Rial fell to 33,500 rials to the dollar in informal currency exchanges. It fell 13% on Oct. 1, 2012. At the end of 2011 the exhange rate was about 13,000 to the dollar, and the rial has already lost 75% of its value as a result of economic sanctions over its nuclear program. Ahmadinejad and the Iranian government risk jeopardizing most of the social gains to improve living conditions as Iran's economy faces the full force of economic sanctions.

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The slowing of China's growth with GDP growth for 2012 estimated by the government at 7.5%. Growth was 8.1% in the first quarter of 2012, with expected decline in the second quarter. In response China's National Development and Reform Commission, which executes economic policy in China, has accelerated the approval of major infrastructure investments starting in April. This includes hydropower stations, clean energy projects, 4 new airports and renovations of 3 large steel plants, a subway in Nanjing. The investments total about $150 billion. Another stimulus comes from investments by local governments with central government support, including highways, sewage treatment plants, and $55 billion investment by state corporations in the Chongqing municipality. To revive the auto industry a cash-for-clunkers program is also planned, and this may include cash incentives for home appliance purchases. In addition to this the State Council headed by premier Wen Biao is making plans for 20 major projects in 7 strategic industries, from advanced equipment manufacturing to energy conservation. The result is a Stimulus that will be much smaller than the $585 Stimulus spending of 2008-2009, with a measured response compared to the earlier splurge in spending. Experts say the Communist party sees this as ensuring a smoother transition to a new president and prime minister in 2012, with added credibility for the nations growth and for the leadership of the Communist party in the modernization drive. ...

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The Obama administration announces its decision not to allow offshore drilling in the eastern Gulf of Mexico or off the Atlantic coast through 2017. This is a shift from earlier policy. The Interior Secretary said the department will gather new environmental information about drilling off the coast of Alaska, which could postpone activity there. The Interior Department will also conduct "supplemental" environmmental analysis of Shell's plan to drill an exploratory well in the Beaufort Sea in 2011. Political factors may have influenced the decision, as the Obama administration is looking for business interests to support its other energy and climate change priorities, as part of what Interior Secretary Salazar called "a balanced package." Salazar cited scientific concerns. The President of the Ameican Petroleum Institute, Jack Gerard, said he failed to understand how a March 2010 decision based on science could go through a complete reversal now.