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Spiegel Online provides a inside look at the leader of the Law and Justice Party which was elected to power in 2015. The liberal opposition that was in power since the fall of communism has seen its popularity decline in the rural areas of Poland, especially in the east. The urban-rural divide seen in other countries such as France is acutely present in Poland and other parts of Eastern Europe, with poor governance and a tendency for economic gains made under capitalism following the fall of communism to go to more educated people in the large cities. The party's leaders are Lech and Jaroslav Kaczynski who were president and prime minister from 2005 to 2007. At the time they were seen as outsiders lacking the sophistication and experience in government of the liberal opposition under Donald Tusk, who now is head of the EU Council since 2014. Tusk was prime minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014. Lech Kaczynski was killed in a plane crash in 2010. Jaroslav Kaczynski appoints members of his party to key positions in government including prime minister Duda. Kaczynski is strident about the manner in which the gains since Poland joined the European Union have gone only to certain groups able to benefit from capitalism. At a recent party congress near Warsaw he is quoted here as saying: "We are here to ensure that everyone in Poland has the same opportunities, regardless of where they live, in the cities or the country." Kaczynski's appeal is in offering a generous welfare state for the middle classes- small businessmen in villages and towns across Poland, common people, with subsidies to tackle the cost of living. His focus is on the "pathological" consequences of economic liberalism after the fall of the Iron Curtain, privatization that benefitted a few, including Kaczynski says former communists and dissidents. Small businessmen felt the inroads of large private retail chains, and families felt the problems of lack of investment in schools and kindergartens. The liberal opposition can only offer the hope that being a reliable EU ally will ensure prosperity, which does not go well with the eastern part of Poland. As a result the Kaczynski government is moving away from the ideas that anchor the European Union. It sees the rule of law and independence of the judiciary as something that can be changed to where the president appoints members of the Supreme Court and the judiciary. Protests in Warsaw and the large cities are taking place against these moves. Der Spiegel says this could end up the way it happened in Britain where it simply stumbled into leaving the EU just by accident. This is the situation in 2017. It could be a temporary process that is a response to the excesses of capitalism. As Kaczynski says to create a level playing field for all parts of Polish society by smoothing out some of the harsh effects of rampant capitalism. Or as Spiegel Online points out a shaky period in which the EU and Poland are at odds- ironically with Donald Tusk as the head of the EU confronting both Theresa May and Kaczynski.  ...

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The title about Indians in America as an Experiment is a misnomer, and reflects a loss of understanding of American and European civilization, the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions that created the Modern World starting in Britain and the US, and of India's aspirations for modernization. When both China and India aspire to the modern world that the Renaissance and the Scientific Revolution have created.  India's Mohandas Gandhi read Emerson, had the support of FDR, of Christian missionary Charlie in the Bardoli Satyagraha, of a British Admiral's daughter at the Gandhi Ashram,  and Gandhi's prayer service included his favorite Christian hymns. This report shows no appreciation of this India and its relations with America. No country does that, what the US has done for 2 decades according to the National Science Foundation cited in this article, not the countries in the European Union, not France, Germany, Italy and Britain, not India, not China- provide tution and stipend and educate more foreign students than Americans or citizens of the home country in advanced engineering. It has never happened in the history of the world for the major nations that participated in the Renaissance in Europe and the Scientific Revolution, the Industrial Revolution, that have created the Modern World. It puts at risk what we know as the Modern World. It also puts at risk the countries such as China and India in addition to the US, as either these Indian or Chinese engineers stay in the US and take jobs and lower wages for Americans, or go back to their home country and help the development of their home country which has invested vital resouces for their previous education. Only if they return to their home country can 2.4 billion people of China and India gain from the investment made in these engineers education. This is particularly true for India, which is now emerging as the fastest growing country in the world with the access to pools of capital, labor and technology needed to match the US and China in modernization and development. For India these computer and other engineers can play a vital role in development for 1.4 billion people.  India like Germany, Italy and France in Europe and Japan, Indonesia Philippines, need the US and Britain as the leader of parliamentary democracies with a long history of parliament since 1600. Need Britain and the US as the cradle of the scientific and Industrial Revolutions, and see their vital interests in the making of a strong Nation in the American continent that can fulfill this role through it's religious values, scientific spirit, pioneering spirit, and generous impulses towards other nations. ...

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With Britain not willing to join an EU wide agreement for all 27 countries in the region, Sweden and the Czech Republic asking for time to consult its parliament, and Hungary declining, only 23 EU countries are now on board for new EU wide treaty changes for fiscal discipline. This makes new EU treaty changes unlikely, and means France and Germany will move ahead with a eurozone agreement for the 17 nation group. This can be done much faster than the cumbersome process for EU treaty revisions. The details of the new agreement will be worked out in the coming weeks and should restore confidence in financial markets. The problem now most experts say is that a new agreement might move too quickly to reduce deficits, worsening the economic prospects in the European Union countries. Fernando Fernandez, an economist at IE Business School in Madrid, says the critical question is how much time countries will be given to meet new rules. If for instance debt is to be reduced by 20 percentage points of GDP in 3 years under new rules, this would impact eurozone growth severely with sharp contractions in already fragile economies. Peter Morici, business professor at the University of Maryland, underscores this, saying Germany is close to zero growth and economies of countries like Spain, Portugal and Italy are contracting. Higher unemployment will result with smaller tax bases, making the situation appear to improve as borrowing rates for Italy drop now, but worsening the situation in 2012-2013 as deficit projections are not attainable. This is already true in Britain where earlier deficit projections are being pushed into future years as economic growth is declining....

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Laurence Peter of the BBC News describes a meeting of EU leaders in December 2016. The new Europa building with its space egg shape will be the location of the next summit in 2016, adding to a sense of history that the EU idea has witnessed since the 1950's, even optimism about far it has come at a time of a few setbacks.  He points out that Theresa May was not without persons to talk to at the meeting, though some video clips showed her looking lonely. EU president Martin Schulz said he was emotional seeing students crying after the Brexit vote, but that it was time to find solutions and not be emotional today. Lunch was offered at the meeting by Spain and Portugal, to mark the 30 years since they joined. People forget how much the European Community meant to the two countries after decades of suffering under fascist dictatorships- it meant new hope and an opportunity to set things right. Problems facing the EU today include, the frustration at the carnage in Aleppo, Syria, how to deal with Britain and Brexit, setting up an asylum system that will work, dealing with Ukraine and Russia without making the situation worse, and remaining concerns about the Greece debt crisis. ...

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The governor of the Punjab province during the Jallianwala massacre in Amritsar was an Irishman. Ireland was a troubled spot in Britain during the French revolutionary wars and France even attempted landings to liberate Ireland. Forward to 1900 and the Irish Easter rebellion leading to the Irish Free State in 1906. Read this article in the BBC for a nuanced understanding of history. As the writer an Irishman says Irish people following the European project called the European Union are now able to sit on equal terms with the British. Old conflicts are not uppermost even in the IRA that won the recent Irish election with its focus on economic issues.  This is good reading for anyone in Pakistan or India also as old conflicts can only be sustained for so long before economic, social and development issues such as education, healthcare and services take prominence in people's minds. It is also good reading in India as it looks at the British period in India, to realize that India now sits astride the Indian Ocean. What Britain accomplished in the eighteenth and nineteenth century with its  Royal Navy is now the task of the Indian Navy in alliance with the American Navy, and the Australian Navy on the world's seas. Indians like Irishmen can sit with the Americans or British on equal terms. ...

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Pew Research looks at Inequality as an issue. It also looks at whether people see that their children will be better off financially when they grow up. The Better off Financially is not the same as the inequality issue, on inequality issue progress can be inadequate but perceived differently among different income groups in industrialized nations to be inconclusive as in this recent Pew Research in 2024.  On whether children will be Better off financially there is a decisive result in Pew Research in 2024. With France and Canada at the top 81% and 78%,  Italy and UK at 79%, the US at 74%, Japan 77%, Australia 79%, Spain 75%. Almost across all the European Union countries and the US this is decisive, a clear unequivocal result. Both the Trump first term and the Biden first term felt effects of Covid pandemic.  Reviving Manufacturing in the US and  Europe is the only way, and with it infrastructure investment, to bring back a sense of optimism to the US and Europe. For this levelling the playing field and tariffs that do that selectively are the plan in the second term, getting industry to take up the challenge is the second goal in this decade to 2030.    ...

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European Union countries reopen for travel this summer. A new travel pass or digital Covid certificate is approved to promote freedom of travel as more people get vaccinated. About a third of people are vaccinated for first shot in France and about 40% in Germany, which means in coming weeks they will have the second shot and enough antibodies to make a return to normal life possible. The EU has negotiated this time with Pfizer for 1.8 billion doses and is building enough vaccine supplies. For the first time governments are stepping up with plans and resources allocated - in India the government now has plans to create supplies of 2 billion doses by the end of the year. This means there is new hope if the vaccination is accompanied by efforts to build booster shot supplies this time planning ahead. Managing the risk of those who are vaccine skeptical remains a problem to be tackled. Masks and other essential precautions also need to be followed in crowded spaces as this was neglected where there was a second or third wave. Public education for this is essential to better manage the pandemic. ...

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The new administration of Francois Hollande in France includes Pierre Moscovici, as Finance Minister. Moscovici was European Affairs minister in 1997-2002 during the formative period of the European Union, served in the European parliament and wrote a book on economics with Hollande. This brings someone with deep EU experience in a critical role of shaping EU policies. Laurent Fabius, is Foreign Minister. Fabius was prime minister in the 1980's. Michel Sapin, a former finance minister is minister for Employment, Labor, and Social Dialogue. The credibility, talent and experience of this team will be critical as the EU enters a difficult phase in 2012-2013.

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Javier Solana reflects on his years building the institutions for a European Union foreign service. He has been the face of the EU in foreign affairs since 1999. A former foreign minister of Spain, Solana says in an interview with Steven Erlanger of the NYT, that Europe has been an adventure and he is proud to be one of its guides. In his view the European Union is a journey, a beautiful journey from the alliances that led to World War II, to the broader union and a zone of peace and stability in Europe for the first time in centuries. In a world which has changed completely with the West having less influence, he syas Europe and the USA need to talk about how the future will be shaped. For France, Germany and Britain to think that they can play an independent role in the world is a fantasy. Europe is not a sentimental thing, but a must, he says.

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The European Union, especially Sarkozy of France and Merkel of Germany want to see strict rules on banker's pay backed up by "the threat of sanctions at the national level." Both leaders see this as an urgent topic for the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh. They want to prevent the reckless lending and risktaking that caused the last financial crisis, where banker's bonuses were based on taking these kinds of risks.

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Christoph Hasselbach of DW.com says the idea of European Union brings so much good for Europe that it should not be diminished by use of pressure or punishment. He refers to the firm opinion in Brussels, of Mr. Juncker and Merkel, that there can be no cherry picking when it comes to remaining in the EU. This led in Jan. 2017 to British prime minister May saying Britain would not go begging to Brussels, and would simply opt out of the European Union and the single market. Hasselbach offers an interesting and plausible explanation for the Brexit vote shifting by a small margin to the exit side. He says rightly that uncontrolled immigration fears were used by the politicians supporting exit. Interestingly he says the worries in the UK were not just for current people but for future citizens from the hundreds of thousands of refugees who would become German citizens in a few years. Would they try to settle in the UK- prime minister Cameron failed to provide a convincing answer, says Hasselbach. He is right to point out as we have at Lyrarc that it is healthy to have questions and even some skeptical views about Brussels, that the appeal of the EU must depend on not being dogmatic about it, but being open and willing to accept questions.   ...

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The European Union Commission says Ireland must recover 13 billion euros in back taxes for giving tax preferences to Apple that are against EU rules. The EU Commission says Ireland allowed Apple to pay a corporate tax rate of 1% on its European profits in 2003, and .005% in 2014. The EU Commissioner says the use of Ireland as the place where Apple pays taxes on operations in Europe has no base in reality, as most profits are earned in other countries outside Ireland. Taxable profits of Apple "did not correspond to economic reality," according to Ms. Vestager, the EU Commissioner.  In the current environment where political upheaval is unsettling the democratic process in the U.S., Britain, Spain, France and Italy, as well as in Brazil and other countries in the developing world- because of deep recessions, and efforts to cut the deficits with deep cuts in state spending including in education and healthcare, basic services- the moves by companies to reduce taxes to these absurdly low levels such as .005% when other companies in the EU are paying 12.5%, is becoming increasingly unpopular. As pointed out in this BBC News article this sounds like the way Carnegie, Rockefeller and Vanderbilt operated during the late 19th century, and were seen as operating in a manner that was above the law. Janet Yellen pointed out at a Boston Fed Conference on inequality in Oct 2014 that the bottom half of the distribution or 62 million households in the U.S. in 2013, had a net worth of about $10,000, One quarter of these households had a net worth of zero dollars. The working class and blue collar workers in the U.S. provide much of the support at Trump rallies. Younger college educated people support Sanders, because of the situation of the working and middle class in the U.S., and a similar situation exists in Europe. It is for the sake of the democratic process and delivering services in education, healthcare, and other basic areas to all, that companies small and large need to pay their fair share of taxes, regardless of size, influence, or technological advantages. Today this is is seen by most leaders who draw public support as the right way forward for the U.S., Latin America, Europe and Asian countries, including proper allocation of resources to best serve the needs of working people. For example the 13 billion euros is equal to all of Ireland's healthcare budget, and 66% of its social welfare budget.    ...

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This essay in the Economist magazine describes the voter rejection of ruling parties and their candidates in France. Two presidents and two former prime ministers from the Socialist party and the Republican Party, Hollande and Sarkozy, Valls and Fillon face rejection. And another candidate from the Republican party Juppe also has fared poorly. This leaves two outsiders LePen of the National Front, and Macron a former Economy minister in the Hollande government who launched En Marche as his own movement for moderate change alternative in 2016. The rural-urban and less educated-more educated divide which was evident in voting in the U.S. election and the Brexit referendum is now seen in France, says this essay. Research from the Economist shows National Front support highest in outlying areas of major cities. The fears of immigration, terrorism, and globalization leaving parts of the working class behind are factors in this election. Support for the European Union is also a factor as it has suffered in recent years.     ...

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French voters turned to parties outside the mainstream left Socialist Party and the right Republican Party for the first time in a run off presidential election. The National Front's Jean Le Pen made it to the runoff in 2002, then lost to Chirac of the Republican Party who won 78% of the vote. This time the Republican Party candidate Fillon had about 20%, the Socialist Party candidate Hamon won just 6% of the vote with the rest of the socialist vote going to a far left candidate Jean Luc Melenchon who had 19.6%. The winners were Emmanuel Macron, a former Economy minister under president Hollande of the socialist Party, getting about 24% and Marine Le Pen, the daughter of Jean Le Pen of the National Front, getting 21.5%. Compared to the U.S. the situation is slightly different in France because of the very high unemployment rate for young people- younger voters supported the National Front, and people especially in rural areas in the north, north east, and the south of the country around Nice and Marseille supported the National Front. Macron's movement En Marche, centrist party drawing support from centre right and centre left without clear ideology except to renew France and pro-EU, was strong in urban areas, among more educated people, especially in Paris and the area around Bordeaux and Toulouse in the south east of the country. Fillon did not do well in some traditional Republican Party areas including Nice, with inroads from Le Pen, who defined the party around anti-immigration, closed borders, and withdrawal from the European Union. ...

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Italy's prime minister, Mario Monti, a senior EU official before becoming prime minister, has the credibility and credentials to bring the French and German sides together on a new plan forward for the European Union, says Steven Pearlstein of the Washington Post. In this report from Rome, where leaders of Italy, Spain, France and Germany are meeting to discuss solutions Pearlstein describes the solutions Monti is putting forward. The European Investment Fund would be built up so that it has funding of about $175 billion or 1% of Europe's GDP to finance truly productivity and growth enhancing projects of innovative small and medium sized business in transportation, energy, education and environmental sectors. These companies have suffered shortages of capital as banks pulled bank from lending. It is the inadequate private investment that is causing the greatest damage in this crisis and $175 billion is at the low end of the amount needed in this crisis. Other steps Monti is pushing forward- for immediate steps to tackle the crisis deposit insurance to prevent a run on banks is essential for European banks. This would come with a eurozone regulatory authority that would have the powers to regulate European banks. The European Financial Stability Facility would be the "sovereign buyer of last resort," under Monti's proposal. Eurobonds come up as a key part of the solution. This is not because German and French taxpayers would be required to finance economies of Spain and Italy. As was shown by the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) a well designed program could pay for itself. This would include the EU financial authority taking up stakes in the banks getting help and closing banks that are insolvent. The key point is that if properly executed and executed in a timely and appropriate way this does not have to cost French and German taxpayers- the important thing being to support the eurozone economies before the situation deteriorates. Borrowing at 6% for Spain and Italy will only put the situation out of control as deficits rise rapidly. The concessions for tighter regulation of European banking systems, reducing risk in banking, setting up adequate reserves, closing poorly run banks, and ceding powers to a European Financial Authority that can make the final decisions, are the steps that would have to go with these arrangements. Sound financial management requires that the kind of banking risks taken in the speculative bubbles in Spain, the lack of transparency and credibility in banking estimates of bad loans in the system, and the glossing over the problems at Bankia, would have to be addressed in solutions through regulation by a credible European Financial Authority to convince skeptical German public opinion that financial accounts are conducted in a proper manner....

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The expected EU turnout in 2024 is at a high of 68 percent. Over the years since its formation the early enthusiasm and vision was replaced by dry directives issued by bureaucrats in Brussels leading to lethargy. 1979's 62 percent voter turnout contrasts with 2014's 48% voter turnout. Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have each in their way created new surge of interest in EU and the parliament in Strasbourg, says Caroline Gruyter from her conversations in France, Switzerland, Netherlands, Czech Republic. Today 74% of EU citizens polled say they support the European Union. Similar numbers even in the UK as Labor party is about to come back in a big way.  What happened? The war in Ukraine, Russia and NATO, US and NATO, the UK drift back to EU in sentiment, Italy's conservative parties called Right wing are supporting the EU under Meloni. Another reason for the sense of EU coming back to life comes from my visit to Germany, where after decades of disinvestment in infrastructure the rail station in Frankfurt is being rebuilt and new infrastructure is being built all over the city. Posters all over Frankfurt for EU parliament elections show a new spirit for Respect for workers, working families, and a sense that the FDP, SPD, CDU and Greens can take the decisions to give new vigor to the German democratic process.    ...

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The former head of U.S. Homeland Security ministry, Mr. Chertoff, and the former head of NATO, Mr. Anders Rasmussen, say the U.S. and European allies are not prepared to meet Russian meddling in elections two years after the U.S. elections and elections in the last year in Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Both co-chair Transatlantic Commission on Election Integrity. They expect 20 elections between now and 2020, and see 20 opportunities for Russian meddling in these elections- suggesting the response to the recent meddling is very inadequate. They cite the shift from fake news to hyper partisan narrative used in the Italian election. This approach uses some content that is true to weave a narrative that leads to an exaggerated version of events. It was used on immigration to appeal to immigrant weary Italians to lead to a situation where the anti-immigrant party Northern League attracted a large portion of the vote. This approach is not new as it was used by pro-Brexiters with ads showing an unending wave of immigrants crossing European borders. Suggesting Britain itself was facing this wave of immigration, using pictures of immigrants from Africa crossing the borders of Hungary and Austria. Placed on buses and billboards this influenced the election, including hyper narrative stories about what how the UK was sending 350 million pounds a week to the European Union which could go to the NHS instead. Britain's Liberal Party leader Nick Clegg and Joe Biden former Vice President are members of the new Commission. ...

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Lack of vaccine supplies and differences between the European Union Commission in Brussels and the German, French governments is slowing the vaccination drive in both countries. The lack of a national concerted effort with the whole country, local and federal governments in agreement, is restricting the effectiveness of the vaccination drives. The failure to contract for more vaccine supplies adds to the problems. By contrast India has coordinated its drive for vaccinations, with the local and federal governments in agreement, and the whole population largely behind the effort to vaccinate. Very critical for a population of 1.4 billion when one includes Bangladesh which has received 2 million doses of vaccine. India has gone one step further with supplying of vaccines to Brazil, Morocco, and other countries. BBC says India has exported 60 million vaccine doses to 76 countries. This is an amazing story and much credit goes to the concerted government effort at all levels local, state and federal and public support. Germany and France can gain by looking at the Indian experience in vaccination drives, just as India has gained by looking at the vaccination drive in the UK, Israel and the US. ...

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French 2025 Bayrou budget compromise deficit of 5.4% target is a fragile one. Le Monde says PM Bayrou is dependent on the goodwill of his opponents the RN National Rally and the Partie Socialiste PS. Cutting the budget slightly is not popular with RN or PS and it remains a compromise to avoid the worst of not passing the budget for 2025, a responsibility the public places on all politicians and parties. As in Germany France with fragile coalitions and lack of clear voter support for one program, is not able to invest in its economy as Biden and Trump have done in the US, slowing growth in the European Union.

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Russian forces in Port Arthur (Dalian, Lushun) like the other European colonial powers in Tientsin took part in the joint operations of Japan, Britain, France, US, and Germany in the invasion of Peking in mid July 1901. Under the Soviet era China was an ally of the Soviet Union yet there was a strong sense of independent action that led to the breakdown of the relationship between Krushchev and Mao in the 1960's. This may be true also today as the European conflict in Ukraine may not be in China's interest of developing its economy and continuing on the path of modernity it adopted throughout the events of the 1930's to the 1990's to today. This report from that period shows the Russian army under Colonel Anisimov and General Stessel rescuing British admiral Seymour's force near Tientsin. The Russian forces under Russian Admiral Hildebrand played a leading role in the battle of the Taku forts that followed in late June 1901. The forces at Tientsin under Admiral Alekseev of about 8000 are mostly Russian. On 19 July 1901, Russia's General Linevich assumes control of the joint Japanese, Russian, British and French forces that conducted the campaign towards Peking.  The American version of the events in China in 1901 is given by Cornell University Prof. David Silbey in his 2010 book- The Boxer Rebellion, The Great Game in China. It shows the depressed condition of China at the time and the struggle to free China of the opium of British traders and conversions by Christian missionaries that undermined Chinese culture and society. The rebellion of 1901 is similar in China's history to the events of 1857 in India with the rebellion against British rule.    ...

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Germany went through a period of stagnant growth and persistently high unemployment leading to reforms of the welfare system and entitlements under the Schroeder administration. The reforms led to lower unemployment benefits and an effort to get the unemployed take up jobs. Instead of unemployment benefits that amounted to half the salary indefinitely, unemployment benefits ended in 12 months under the reforms, and workers were forced to take up jobs or dig into their savings. The cuts to benefits led to more of the unemployed taking jobs that were not their first choice with lower incomes. Unions agreed to defer wage demands and wages remained relatively flat for a long period. The "kurzarbeit" system of government subsidizing employers to retain workers during economic downturns, helped cushion the workforce from ups and downs in the economy. Unemployment which was in double digits a decade ago, is now 6.1%. The system still preserved some other aspects of generous benefits- parental leave of 14 months at two-thirds salary, vacation time and publicly sponsored health insurance. Recent changes include raising the retirement age to 67 from 65. The Organization of Economc Cooperation and Development estimates that the 200,000 jobs saved in Germany during the recession of 2008-2009 cost the government $7 billion. Government funds helped companies retain workers by paying a portion of worker salaries and averting layoffs.This comes to $35,000 per job. Compare this with the $38.9 billion allocated to a loan program at the Energy Department under the U.S. stimulus. 8050 jobs were created under this program according to the Washington Post- for the money spent so far in Sept 2011- 2 years into the loan program, of $19.3 billion. This comes to $2.4 million in government guaranteed loans per job. The Energy Department says that 33,000 jobs were saved under the $5.9 billion that was given to the auto industry under this program for investments in manufacturing to improve fuel efficiency. This comes to $178,000 per job. The Energy Department and Congress estimated a 5%-10% loss on the $38.6 billion loan program for loans that go sour, such as the Solyndra solar company $535 million loan. This comes to $1.9 billion at 5% loss and $3.8 billion for a 10% loss. The purpose of these figures is to show the cost of programs when the programs fail to achieve job goals or produce too little for the investment. The $3.8 billion loss under the program is over half the $7 billon Germany invested for the 200,000 jobs saved as estimated by the OECD. That ranks as a far superior investment than the Energy Department program. For the U.S. there are aspects of German reforms such as "kurzarbeit" that bear emulation, with serious questions about the effective use of the U.S. stimulus funds. For the rest of Europe the stingier unemployment benefits, raising the retirement age to 67, and other reforms send a different message. From the average German the message is: we made the tough changes, the rest of Europe cannot expect Germans to pay higher taxes while they put off similiar changes. Italy needs to change its retirement age, just as the Germans have done. As Chancellor Merkel puts it: "People in countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal shouldn't be able to retire earlier than in Germany. It's important for everybody to put in effort to make it roughly equal. Germany will only help when others really make an effort." Which is why Greece, Spain, Italy, even France are faced with making serious changes. This isn't stalling when it comes to euro bonds, from the German perspective. And it isn't about the lack of committment to the idea of a European Union, as all major political parties in Germany, the CDP, the SDP and the Greens, all strongly support the idea of a European Union. ...

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The G7 countries including the US, France and Germany  and the European Union now support setting a oil price cap of $60 per barrel for Russian oil. This price cap of $60 goes into effect December 5, 2022, and require western companies that do most of the shipping and distributing for Russian oil worldwide to comply. The US favored oil price cap of $65 set at what Russia earned historically on oil exports. Eastern European countries such as Poland wanted to set the price cap on Russian oil much lower at $30 what it costs Russia to produce oil so that it would crimp Russia's ability to wage war in Eastern Europe that has brought millions of refugees to Poland in 2022.  There were also other prices of between $65 and $70 that were proposed by the European Commission. The US wanted to give Russia some incentive to continue its oil exports which it had threatened to stop if the oil price cap was set -and avoid a situation in which oil prices that hit $120 a barrel early in 2022 would not jump to hit $140 a barrel.  Poland has called for a review every 2 months of the oil price cap so that it is close to the market cap. In November 2022 Russian oil is being sold at about $48 per barrel discounted from Brent crude at $86. The $12 difference between $48 and $60 is the US saying to Russia that it is working with moderation just as it had supported Ukraine with air defenses but acted with restraint to limit that to avoid provocative attacks on Russian soil. What does a cap on Russian oil price mean and how is it possible? Western shipping companies ship the oil out of Russia and distribute it around the world. This advantage of the G7 countries is what it intends to now use to bring an early end to the war in Ukraine by cutting into Russian oil generated funding for the war. Shipping an insurance companies that insure shipping based mostly in the west are now required to comply and not carry supplies bearing a price higher than $60.  ...

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The close alliance between the CDU and the CSU in Bavaria appears to be unraveling. The immigrants at German borders have dwindled down a trickle, about 11,000 immigrants today compared to the wave of immigrants entering Germany in 2015. The CSU's prime minister in Bavaria Mr. Soder and the Federal Interior minister from the CSU Mr. Seehofer, blame the conflict between the two parties on the 2015 decision by Merkel on immigration. The German ARD broadcaster shows 62% of Germans favor stronger action on immigration. The pressure on the CSU comes from the gains by the anti-immigration party AfD in recent national elections. The CSU hopes that by shifting its own position on immigration to a standoff with the CDU and Merkel's position it can hold off the Afd in the elections in Bavaria in October 2018. The pressure on Merkel comes from members in the CDU and from the SPD leadership, which have accomodated some of the criticism of open immigration to reduce the immigrants at German borders, yet now see the need to meet any challenges to Merkel's authority. This is why the head of the SPD, Ms. Nahles called Mr. Soder's push for a confrontation on the immigration issue as acting "like a bonzai Trump." The CDU party leaders in Bavaria call for a "axis of the willing" joining leaders of the governments in Austria and Hungary. and the newly elected government in Italy to impose immediate controls on immigration at the borders. Merkel says she is open to different points of view within the CDU-CSU alliance, but action should be based on keeping the European Union together, and be taken after EU meetings in Brussels. Will this result in a fall of the government? Angela Merkel has adapted to the changing situation on immigration leading to the small trickle in new immigrants at German borders today. Even if the AfD anti immigration party joins the CSU the percentage of the vote for the AfD is mainly in the eastern part of Germany, and CSU in Bavaria, with 12.6% voting AfD in 2017 elections, and about 7% voting CSU mainly in Bavaria. This compares with the Left at 8.9%, Greens at 9.2%, and SPD at 20.5% for a combined 38.6% of the vote that favor Merkel's new coalition policies. This combined with the 25% of the vote gained by Merkel's CSU party gives it about 64% of the vote and about 489 seats in the 709 seat German parliament. A test of Merkel's authority is not likely to be sustained. By making this a pro-European position Merkel has shifted the issue from one of immigration which is now minimal and one on which Merkel has adapted her policies to a stand on Germany as leader with France of the European Union. At this particularly sensitive time when Germany and France are negotiating with the U.S. on trade and Britain on Brexit, German public opinion is likely to consider the impact of new elections and more uncertainty as not good for Germany. With the SPD, Left, Greens and CSU having 64% of the vote, and the anti immigrant parties CSU, AFD about 20% concentrated in the less economically developed eastern part and in Bavaria, the chances that Merkel's position would be weakened or her authority challenged is very unlikely.   ...

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A professor of economics of innovation and public value at University College, London, says one-off deals such as the one with Land Rover to produce electric car batteries is not an adequate response to the big industrial strategies of the US and the European Union. Mariana Mazzucato says in this Guardian article the UK's decision to leave the EU is costing 100 billion pounds in output. Of 100 leading Uk manufacturers about half say their suppliers in the EU are more cautious about doing business in the UK. She compares the US industrial strategy that combines public and private investment of $3.5 trillion over the next decade, and the EU's for $2 trillion with Britain's effort. She says of the UK that it has nothing like this and worse with austerity it is moving in the opposite direction. Another problem is the change in governments of the Tories and new industrial policy every time there is a new minister. Business investment in UK is 19% less than the G7 average. The civil service needs investment, as she says Britain has become addicted to outsourcing the core functions of the public sector. Mazzucato says the government for aid to the private sector should do what Germany and France have done to expect reduction in carbon emissions, or as the US has done with Biden's Chips Act of giving aid given that there are no share buybacks by companies.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
For the approaching US midterm elections president Biden seeks to draw a sharp contrast with Republican Senator Rick Scott's Plan which he says would worsen inflation and increase taxes on working class families. Mr. Scott's plan is for sunset on all federal legislation and president Biden says this would include Medicare and Social Security. Mr. Scott also wants all Americans to pay some income tax to have skin in the game. At this time about half of all Americans pay no taxes says Mr. Scott. Former US president Trump continues to lead the Republican party in 2022  yet he faces a very different Democratic party under president Biden. Mr. Biden's focus is on his $2 trillion plan for Workers and Families, rebuilding American manufacturing and renewing supply chains, unlike Hillary Clinton whose lacked such a focus. Leading to Mr. Trump's appeal with working class families and disdain for traditional Republican policies that secured him the presidency in 2018 by defeating Hillary Clinton. The changes with president Biden's focus on workers and families are happening also in the European Union. Scholz and the Greens in Germany, Macron in France with potentially Melenchon as prime minister, and similar changes in Denmark and other EU countries suggest that there is a renewed focus on infrastructure, rebuilding manufacturing and supply chain renewal, rebuilding incomes and lives of workers and families, in Europe and the US. ...