LyrArc Article Gist
The rarely mentioned origins of the U.S. Medicare reform proposal of Rep. Paul Ryan and Rep. Ron Wyden, which includes work done at the Hoover Institution and liberal think tanks, in a debate subject to distortions on all sides.

LyrArc Article Gist
Gerson describes Obama's failure to connect in 2012, compared to the 2008 campaign. What is left is more of the politician from the South Side of Chicago, the idealism of an earlier campaign is gone. What is left is a supposed ruthlessness that is opportunistic at every turn, says Gerson.

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ editorial points out a big concern in the third quarter 2012 economic growth figures- the figure showing non-housing related investment contracting by 1.3%. It says the U.S. borrowed $5 trillion and all it got in return was 1.7% economic growth- 1.7% being the growth in U.S. GDP for the first 9 months of 2012. It also points out that the growth came from consumer spending and the Federal Reserve's money printing. The consumer spending would be hard pressed to continue if incomes remain stagnant without the capital investment and hiring from the private sector. Government spending accounts for 0.7% of the GDP growth, and estimates for private sector growth in output is about 1.3%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Comparison of cost of components and margins for Nokia's Lumia smartphone and the Apple iPhone 4S in 2012. The Lumia 900 retail price is $450 vs. Apple iPhone 4S for $649. Total component cost for Lumia $209 vs. $190 for Apple. Margin of $241 for Lumia vs. $459 for Apple.

LyrArc Article Gist
Solomon and Said give a detailed account of the events leading to the steep decline in oil prices to $61 a barrel by December 2014. The steep declines have caused a shock for OPEC and non-OPEC producers. A price decline of this magnitude may not have been anticipated by the Saudis, and there are divisions among Saudi officials and in the royal family about whether such steep cuts are best for Saudi Arabia. The price per barrel of oil for each OPEC country to balance its budget varies widely, according to IMF and IEA, WSJ, sources. For Saudi Arabia this estimate is $106, Iraq 101, for Russia $98. The Saudis have $750 billion in foreign currency reserves. At the high end are Libya at $184, Iran at $131, Algeria $131, Nigeria $122, Venezuela $117. The UAE is at $77, Qatar $60. Norway is at the low end at $40. On Dec. 19, 2014 the price of Brent crude, ICE for Jan. delivery was $61.38.

LyrArc Article Gist
Italy's prime minister, Mario Monti put it best when he said in a speech in Brussels in April 2012: "If a country becomes more productive and competitive, but there is no demand for its products domestically or around it, growth will not materialize." There is a new shift in opinion towards a balance of fiscal discipline with growth measures to get Europe back on track. The feeling in different parts of Europe is that the German view of austerity alone will not work for Europe. And the view is coming from the far right to the far left, from Marie Le Pen, far right presidential candidate in France, to the far right leader whose move to withdraw support to the government in Netherlands on the issue of austerity measures led to its collapse. Geert Wilders, leader of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands, said: "we don't want our pensioners to bleed just to meet the dictates from Brussels." The IMF has put out research that questions what is now called "the German hypothesis." The "German hypothesis," is based on the unique experience of Germany with the Hartz reforms under chancellor Schroeder which were based on wage restraint by workers, the German "kurzarbeit" program of government support for retaining workers with lower pay during cyclical downturns, improving competitiveness of German companies, and conservative budget practices. There appear to be two exceptions to this. One is that demand has to be strong outside or domestically for a country to reduce unemployment and improve productive capacity utlilization as it increases competitiveness. This was the case as Germany made the Hartz reforms under Schroeder. Wage restraint acts as a form of devaluing currency for reducing the cost of its products to improve exports. All leading parties and the unions are now in favor of wage restraint and lowering wages to preserve jobs to improve France's competitive position. Germany had the benefit of a decade to implement these reforms to reduce unemployment, because demand was not declining domestically or around it during its reforms. The situation is different in Spain where in all likelihood demand would shrink further with unemployment rising from 25% to higher levels, and higher sales taxes. This is why Francois Heisbourg, special advisor at the Paris based Foundation for Strategic Research, says about the current situation in Europe, that destroyiing Greece with strict austerity alone wasn't something the EU can look back at with the sense of having done the right thing, for Spain it appears misguided and lacking careful thought. The editors of the Wall Street Journal expressed the same sense when they described the March 2012 bailout of Greece as a tragic sideshow, because the main purpose was to buy time and insulate the other larger economies in the EU by giving the French, Spanish and German banks time to improve their financial position. The Journal called it bad for Greece leaving it with debt at 120% of GDP till 2020 and no economic growth, and bad for democracy as it was done against overwhelming Greek public opinion- The Tragic Greek Sideshow, Feb. 22, 2012. Volker Perthes, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a Berlin think tank, says the Germans have always viewed German leadership in Europe with discomfort, and would prefer a leadership where several states, France, Italy, Spain, and other countries in the EU coalesce around consensus positions. This is historically true for the German position since chancellor Adenauer. With the Free Democrats in decline, and the Social Democrats and the Pirate party doing well in recent German elections and favoring consensus in Europe, Merkel's Christian Democrats need to rethink their policy to give greater weight to economic growth for a consensus position in Europe. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Since 2004 consumer spending's share of the economy in China has fallen from 40% to 35%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Jerry Brown is likely to get a fourth term as Governor of California. Brown's focus is on a Water initiative, Proposition 1, and an initiative for a rainy day fund, Proposition 2, for the state. His campaign spending of only $500,000 suggests that he prefers to make his legacy with the right actions for the state. Proposition 1 addresses the water problems in the state which is facing a long drought. It is a water bond that will invest $7.1 billion on water storage and recycling, watershed management and loans to regional water management projects. Proposition 2 addresses the second major problem in the state of California- the failure to build enough reserves to tide over periods of economic downturn. It requires the state to set aside 1.5% of general fund revenue and a larger percentage of capital gains taxes till the rainy day fund reaches 10% of the state general fund or $15 billion for 2014. Brown is unique among the nation's governors for his ability to stay away from politics and ideologies to take a common sense approach to the state's major problems. As a former governor he returned to office decades later with experience that few governors have, enabling him to carry on the legacy of his father, a former governor, to make a huge contribution to the state. Fed chairman Volcker has started an initiative to encourage public service in the U.S., Jerry Brown has shown how it is done. Bringing the experience, the courage for needed action, coupled with the humility of outstanding public servants....

LyrArc Article Gist
The unemployment rate in the U.S. state of Ohio drops to 7.2% in June 2012 from 10.6% in the second half of 2009. But polls show two thirds of the respondents see the economy as being worse or the same as in 2011. Because of lower wages in some industries such as auto manufacturing which are reviving there appears to be a lowering of incomes and expectations.

LyrArc Article Gist
Studies at the University of Padova in Italy and by France's research agency INSERM show higher risks of dementia from retiring early. The INSERM study shows that for every additional year worked we reduce the risk of dementia by 3.2 percent. Retiring at age 50 is considered very, very poor decision, and before 60 very poor decision, as cognitive development, mood, and active engagement with work offering complexity, all relate to good mental health. Countries like U.S. and Denmark where people tend to work for longer than in France and Austria are shown to be doing significantly better in cognitive performance in a 2010 study published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives. The Italian study shows the longer you spend in retirement the higher the risks of cognitive decline.

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman points out that the prevailing bias in the US distorts the facts about Europe's performance. Frankfurt, London and Paris he says are just as lively and modern as New York and Chicago. They are not poor and backward. When you factor out population growth in the USA, since 1980 per capita real GDP which is what affects living standards has grown in America at about the same rate as the 15 European Union countries: 1.95 percent in the USA vs. 1.83 percent for the EU. And for the 25-54 years working age group unemployment in the EU 15 countries in 2008 was 80% of adults (83% in France), which is about the same as in the USA. The French and Germans work fewer hours but output per hour is close to American levels.

LyrArc Article Gist
Friedman on the $110 billion to fight wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan that does little to advance American interests and values. Especially today when the peoples of the Middle East are struggling to be free of the corrupt military regimes that have ruled their countries, and are trying to setup democratic processes in their countries. The pressing needs at home which are better attended to with these funds. The need to redirect some of this to help young people in the Muslim world bring new hope, development and democratic processes to their countries.

LyrArc Article Gist
Voter fatigue with the Conservatives under prime minister Harper is showing up in the province of Ontario. The area around London, Ontario, and Toronto is critical in the 2015 general election. A large loss of manufacturing jobs has left this key manufacturing region of Canada so weakened that the recent 20% decline in the Canadian currency is not leading to a rebound in the manufacturing sector. The Liberals under Justin Trudeau have promised to run a slight deficit to invest in infrastructure that would help the manufacturing sector, while Harper's Conservatives plan to keep the status quo. The vigorous campaign run by Trudeau, the son of a former prime minister, is also helping the Liberals, who are moving ahead in the polls.

LyrArc Article Gist
Analysts point out that there is not much room for austerity cuts in Italy and Spain without cutting into muscle. This is because these countries have moved to make austerity cuts much earlier. Their budget deficits are actually less than what they were when they joined the euro currency zone. In the case of Italy the budget is actually in surplus, to the amount of 2% of GDP, when the financial position excludes interest on debt. And Italy has now moved to reduce the deficit to 3.9% of GDP in 2011. Under pressure from the ECB Italy has announced its aim of balancing the budget by 2013. Because both Italy and Spain have growth rates estimated at below 1% for 2011, analysts believe it is important to emphasize growth.