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Research from Australian National University shows steadily improving conditions for migrant workers in China. Migrant workers were able to spend more time in cities- an average of 8.9 years. The hukou sysem ensures migrants return to rural areas when they have to raise a family. About 252 million migrant workers work in factories and construction jobs in urban areas. Migrants with children leave them with grandparents back home. Improving the conditions of these workers is important to reduce the wage and income disparities in China and to reduce inequality. About a fifth of the migrant population now has pension and health benefits. Creating a balanced economy with domestic consumer spending making a larger share of GDP also requires improving wages and benefits of migrant workers. Incoming prime minister Li Keqiang says in a statement on a government website: China "must take migrant rural workers and gradually change them into urban residents. This requires that we push forward household registration reform." If done seriously this will create a new kind of China as these migrant workers are integrated into urban society after years of being shunned and ignored by China's educated middle class. Professor Meng's research at Australian National University of migrant workers shows the proportion of migrant workers with unemployment insurance increased from 11% in 2008 to 21% in 2012. The research shows similiar figures for health and pensions. Improving their living standards also make it attractive for more young people from rural areas to migrate to cities increasing urbanization....

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This analysis of coal use using graphs shows a clear move away from coal in the world, except for two growth markets China and India which account for 60% of the increase in coal use since 2008. India has gone black in its shift to increasing use of coal. China has begun the shift away from coal to address the smog over large urban areas, poor air quality and health impact of coal use. Because China used five times the coal used by India in 2017, the overall impact in China and India is showing a shift away from coal to hydropower, other renewables including solar energy. It is likely that India will make the shift following China's example in the future. 

The trend is clear when one looks at the incremental terawatt hour and where it comes from. The shift is clear to renewables, hydropower, and non fossil uses in the rest of the World and China which account for most of the coal use in the world.

 

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Ford Motor Company profit increased in 2015. Ford made $1.9 billion net profit in the 2nd quarter 2015, a 44% increase over the prior year quarter. Revenue declined to $37.3 billion, as margins reach the projected 8-9% range for 2015. Full year operating profits are estimated by Ford between $8.5 and $9.5 billion. Prices on the F-150 truck were up $3600 over the prior year, reaching $44,000. Ford sold more larger vehicles and pickups than sedans. A favorable sales environment is helping sales of more profitable larger vehicles- low interest rates, low gas prices and higher fuel economy on newer F-150 vehicles, including an aluminium body on the new F-150 truck. Recent China sales also show increased demand for the larger vehicles and SUV's, with Ford China market share increasing to 4.5% for 2014. In the U.S. Ford and GM are losing market share, with a focus on profitability. In China sales are growing at a slower pace with the economic slowdown, with 2015 sales growth estimated at less than 1%. Worldwide sales for VW and GM increased to 5.04 million and 4.9 million for the first 6 months of 2015, on the basis of larger market share in China. Toyota worldwide sales declined slightly to 5.02 million. Future prospects may not be as good, as the market in China could become very competitive with too much capacity. The price competition in smaller cars could reach the larger vehicles at some point with the slowdown reducing profits from China....

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The tensions that exist in Australian society, as a result of the large Chinese investments and imports of infrastructure building commodities such as iron ore, natural gas and other commodities. Australia's Pilbara region in the northwestern part of the country, has become one huge quarry for China, as an estimated 1 million tons of iron ore raw material is loaded onto 2 story high trucks each day- with automated driverless trucks system being implemented- and shipped by 2 mile long trains to waiting ships on the coast. Australians remember this done on a smaller scale in the 1980's by Japan. At the time Japan brought in Japanese workers. The same is true today but on a bigger scale, with China bringing in workers with lower pay. The concern now is what it was then, as one local leader put it- are we going to have towns with mines or mines with towns, he asked. The mining companies are looking at it purely as a commercial venture, and not investing in the towns. The towns now fear they will find the boom times gone someday and nothing tangible to show for it, no schools, hospitals and no infrastructure. And because the mining project companies fly people in and out, the 8000 aboriginal people in Pilbara- the original people of this land- see little of the mining expansion's benefits. Wandoan, a small place with 300 homes in the outback in Queensland, in eastern Australia, is an example of the gut wrenching change taking place in the mining areas. The lives of the people from the local pharmacy, the local supermarket, and the local ranchers, depend on the mining decisions made in China. This area was part of a planned, on again off again, $6 billion coal mine -part of a A$150 billion complex of natural gas and coal projects for exports to Asia in Queensland- and involved Xstrata buying 70,000 acres of the best grazing land for 7 coal mines. With the locals selling off, the mining uncertain, the supermarket closing, the whole town has the feeling of being up in the air, and fading out someday. Australian public sentiment recognizes this feeling, and at the same time is ambivalent about the impact. Polls conducted by the Lowy Institute for International Policy, show 73% of Australians feel Chinese economic growth has a positive impact, and at the same time 57% feel that there is now excessive Chinese investment, and 46% feel China will be a military threat in 20 years. Australians remember the same feeling about Japan's investments in raw material sources in the eighties. In 1988, polls then showed 70% of Australians saying there was too much Japanese investment, even though they also recognized that Australia had benefitted. The difference now is that there are also fears of China's influence, and foreign investment guidelines limit investments in Australian mining companies to below 50%. China's investment in Australia's natural resources comes in several ways: in the year upto July 2009 A$42 billion in export demand, A$3 billion in direct investment in Australian companies, and about A$5 billion in project financing. Iron ore sales to China amount to A$22 billion each year, and about one fourth of Australia's exports went to China, growing at a rate of 31% in 2009. According to the chief economist of Austrade, the government trade organization, Australia benefits from the economic relationship with China- this adds A$3,400 per year to every Australian household. Efforts to use some of the profits made by mining corporations for infrastructure and other public purposes, by increasing the mining tax have failed; as the mining industry launched a campaign against the government of Kevin Rudd, who was removed from office by his party. In the recent national elections, the ruling Labor party lost its majority, after losses in the resource rich states of Western Australia and Queensland. In the meantime the Australian currency has become the currency used by currency speculators who cannot use the yuan to make a bet on the currency- as the yuan is pegged to the dollar- and instead use the Australian dollar as a proxy. This makes it volatile, with the Australian dollar losing 10% of its value in a single day, when pessimism increased about China's growth forecasts. It also shows how much of the good story of employment and gdp growth in Australia is tied to the story in China, and the extent of the negative impact a reversal in this area can mean for Australians; especially now that the bad debt in the post-2008 explosion of bank lending poses risks to China's banknig system. ...

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As part of the effort to become more competitive with Asian automakers, VW is using new strategies with labor to reduce costs. VW made a one-off payment of about 6,300 to each of 80,000 employees at its western German manufacturing plants. In return VW secured union agreement to change work schedules at the plants to 33 hours a week from 28.8 hours, without having to make a pay increase. This is part of concessions being made by labor as Germany tries to improve its competitiveness. VW's second largest shareholder is the German state of Lower Saxony, and VW makes many automobile parts in its German plants in addition to automobile assembly, making employment a major issue for industry, labor and government.

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As part of his plans to revive Sony, CEO Hirai plans to increase sales in emerging markets by 44% in 3 years. Sony is the leading brand for television, audio equipment, and notebook computers in India. Hirai plans to increase operating margins to 5%, and increase revenues by 33%, by March 2015. The outgoing CEO, Mr. Stringer reached 5.4% operating margin in the fiscal year ending March 2008, but things changed after the global financial crisis and the problems in 2011 with the tsunami and earthquake in Japan and floods in Thailand. Sony also plans to start a new medical business with medical diagnostic products, and endoscope type products that use its advanced image sensors. Sony plans to focus on mobile devices, digital cameras, and videogames for further investment.

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The issue of high youth unemployment. The bulge in demographics and the emphasis on increasing the number of college graduates without increasing the jobs available, or providing apprenticeship type training and degrees in areas where jobs can be created, has created a major problem in the Middle East. High youth unemployment in the US, Spain and the UK also poses serious problems. Former primer Minister Giuliano Amato of Italy recently told Corriere della Serra: "The older generations have eaten the future of the younger ones." Older workers tend to hold onto their jobs as long as possible as retirement ages are being raised, and they have negotiated higher retirement pensions. In Spain the younger part time workers and immigrant workers are the first to be laid off and unemployment is highest in this group, which is also why the high unemployment has not attracted as much attention there. Younger workers will eventually have to support a higher proportion of these workers in retirement because of the demographics. The shift to higher parttime employment and employment at low wages has also created a class of workers who have no future, as their incomes are low, and are easily laid off. This shift has been taking place in the US, Europe and Japan over the last decade. Germany has fared better because of its long tradition of apprenticeship training, and employers working directly with young students at universities to provide on the job training. The financial crisis of 2008 in the US slowed down many industries and created a shift in industries creating jobs, the result was a larger mismatch of skills of job seekers and new jobs created. One way to address this is more on the job training and working directly with employers, and assistance to community colleges to fill education gaps. ...

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Macron received 27% of the vote to 24% for Le Pen and 21.7% for Melenchon. Pecresse of the Republicans 4.7% and Zemmour on the far right at 7%.  If no candidate wins 50% of the vote there is a runoff on April 24  of the voters who voted for other smaller parties and how voters for former socialist candidate Melenchon respond in the runoff. French departments in the Caribbean, Atlantic and Pacific can vote. There are also 1.4 million overseas voters. Which all adds to an interesting mix that these Guardian color coded graphics provide an insight into to show voter sentiment in 2022. Le Pen continues to draw support from the northeast, southeast around Marseille, and rural regions in east and south with Zemmour drawing away some far right voters in the Marseille region. Some of these areas suffered as manufacturing shifted to China, as in the industrial midwest of the US. Some of this is also communities involved in the Yellow Vest protests about cost of living for working class voters. Macron draws support from the western and south west regions around the cities of Toulouse, Bordeaux, Lyon, and affluent areas of Paris that have gained during the Tech and advanced industrial revolution. This also includes rural areas. Melenchon as former socialist candidate draws support from less affluent suburbs of Paris and all parts of the country looking for a shift from power concentrated in the presidency. About 13.2% of the vote is for smaller parties,  showing the kind of fragmentation that happened also in Germany as the main parties the Socialists and the Republicans lost significant numbers of voters. Valerie Pecresse of Sarkozy's Republicans received only 4.7%, showing severe losses for the main parties. ...

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The political deadlock between U.S. Congress and the President and its impact on efforts to reduce the unemployment rate. The failure of the Obama administration and Congress to tackle the jobs issue, leaving too much of the burden of action on the Federal Reserve.

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Japan is suffering from deflation, the public debt is a record 883 trillion yen or $9.78 trillion, and Premier Hatoyama was unable reduce spending. Yet the Japanese yen went up by 4% in May 2010. It went up by 11.5% vs the Euro. The causes lie in the weakness of the U.S. and European economies and the huge trade surpluses from Japanese exports, over $28 billion in 2009.

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The new J.D. Powers Quality Survey put out in Feb 2013 showed the Lexus, Toyota, Mercedes, Buick, Chevrolet, Lincoln and Dodge Ram brands performing at the top level in number of problems reported by owners of 3 year old vehicles. Land Rover, Jeep and VW brands did poorly. Most of the Chrysler Dodge cars performed poorly. The redesign of vehicles initiated by Fiat Chrysler CEO Marchionne does not show up in this study. The redesigned Jeep and other vehicles will show in next years study. The study also showed buyers of economy vehicles were likely to switch easily when buying another car. New models are showing fewer problems and are more dependable compared to previous years, with the average number of problems declining from 170 per 100 vehicles in 2009, to 132 in 2011, and 126 in 2012.

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A big change for the presidential election in 2012 is the lopsided way in which white voters who are struggling with job losses or seeing economic difficulties are alienated from President Obama. By 58% to 32% these voters favor Romney over Obama in a May 2012 Wahington Post-ABC News poll, a 26% margin. Of those struggling financially about 7 in 10 lack a college degree. This is happening even though 31% of these voters in this poll say they are Republicans and 27% Democrats. It is true that Obama could still win in 2008 losing this group 58% to 40%, an 18% losing margin, similiar to Kerry in 2004, and Al Gore in 2000. A wider margin of 26% poses more risks if the unemployment situation and the economy looks weaker by November 2012.