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Only 1.9 million hourly workers in manufacturing now earn more than $20 per hour, its down 60% since 1979, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Of all hourly workers in every sector of the economy the percentage of people earning more than $20 per hour shrunk to 18% in 2008 from 23% in 1979, thus losing some of the gains the US made since World War II which helped build the American middle class. One can see this unwinding clearly in the auto industry as wages are being reduced to match nonunion Japanese plants, and the industry itself is going through a huge downsizing fast. The hourly work force totals 76 million or 52% of all workers ranging from managers and professionals to factory and construction workers to technicians, educators and sales people. The wages of salaried workers show a similiar trend but are not converted into hourly amounts. As the numbers for 2007 are at the point where the economy was still booming, the path ahead as things go through a steep downturn can only have serious implications such as a slow recovery for demand in 2010. If a number of trends converge, employers shift to part time employment, auto related workers downshift to lower wages and benefits, shift to nonunion plants in the south or the midwest, and work is offshored or outsourced, this could worsen effects on consumption for years ahead especially with the credit remaining tight and consumers paying off old debt. Frank Levy, a labor economist at MIT, says that all this is happening wihtout a political debate or discussion, as people are worried more about having a job, and only secondly about what it pays and whether they are losing ground. Even the Pennsylvania primary debate, says Levy, between Hillary Clinton and Obama was conducted without quantifying the decline, and no one mentioned the eroding of the $20 per hour wage. What happened to support the consumption and support imports, was to pay for consumption by going into debt or refinancing the home. This has implications that range from the future of export industries in China's booming coastal sector, to how long the recovery drags on, and to what the future would look like....

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Chile's president Bachelet takes office for the second time in Jan 2014, after serving a term from 2006-2010. Her new administration will boost public spending and spending on education. Corporate tax rates will be increased and personal tax rates lowered. As growth slowed to 4% in 2013 from the 5.8% in prior years, Chile will have to look for new ways to boost growth.

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The New York Times reports that comments from Obama administration officials describe an alarming loss of trust and confidence between China and the USA over the last two years. David Shambaugh, director of the China Policy program at George Washington University, says the administration had hoped to work with China on major challenges like climate change, nuclear nonproliferation, and a new global economic order. China, he says, has failed to step up and play that role. He describes the Chinese as responding as an increasingly narrow-minded, self-interested truculent, hyper-nationalist, and powerful country. Jeffrey Baker, a key China policy adviser in the White House, says China's responses reflected a sense in Beijing that China was a rising power and the USA a declining power, especially after the strong rebound of the Chinese economy after the 2008 crisis. The administration is determined to counteract that impression. Other factors complicate things. China is facing a transition to a new leadership in the next year. There are differences within the Chinese Communist party leadership ranks about the direction China should take. Trade and currency issues have come to the point where American public opinion is shifting greatly, with educated professionals changing their views on trade and currency matters. See the recent WSJ/NBC September 2010 poll on world trade, reported by Murray and Belkin in WSJ, Oct 2, 2010. The Obama administration cannot ignore the deep concerns of the American people on these issues. The House overwhelmingly voted in September to threaten China with tariffs on its exports if the Chinese currency, the renminbi, is not allowed to appreciate significantly enough (experts estimate that it is overvalued by 20%). It is not clear whether the Administration's rhetoric on this issue is to assuage public opinion in a business as usual manner, or expected to achieve substantative results to rebalance world trade. The G-20 summit in S. Korea leaves this change for well into the future- China with current account surplus of 5.8% of GDP in 2009 is expected to lower this to 4% by 2015. With the high jobless rate in the US and the large and rising current account deficit, the United States may have reached a juncture where this cannot be put off well into the future years. Other issues, the different foreign policy objectives, and differing perceptions of China and the US of each other, the relationship with US allies in the region, may create additional tensions. These tensions may be navigated by governments of both countries, but the shift in American public opinion on trade, currency and jobs issues will require tangible and real change. As trade tensions will only increase in the next two years with the lack of fiscal stimulus on the jobs front, and no significant change in jobs expected from the Fed's purchase af additional Treasury debt, and a sense that the mutual benefit in the trade relationship with China has been lost to America's serious detriment. China's position may be perceived as stronger than it really is from the faster rebound from the 2008 crisis, and may in reality not be as Jeffrey Baker sees it. As David Barboza has reported in the New York Times, and experts have pointed out, the huge amount of lending encouraged by the government has accentuated weaknesses in the Chinese economy. A significant amount has gone into real estate speculation and will only increase the bad loans on the books of China's banks. This happens at the very time that growth is expected to slow down and make it harder to absorb the bad loans, as was done in the past. ...

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Lee Myung-Bak says Korea's experience with its banks and troubled assets in 1998 can provide useful guide to solving the problems at American banks. First take strong decisive action rather take incremental steps. Korea raised money from various sources for a fund of $127 billion, or 32% of GDP between 1997-2002, to resolve impaired assets and recapitalize its banks. Second, recapitalization and bad bank solution were both applied simultaneously. Korea setup the Korea Asset Mnagement Corporation (Kamco) as its bad bank. And the Korea Deposit Insurance Corporation helped recapitalize the banks. Kamco also did things in a unique way which may have lessons for the USA. Kamco purchased the bad assets and settled the gains or losses with the banks once their assets recovered in value. It acquired assets at $30.9 billion, the book value which was $85.1 billion by 2002, and recovered $33.9 billion by 2008 by reselling to private investors through various methods including public auctions, direct sales, international tenders, securitization and debt-equity swaps. Lee points out that its useful fro government to purchase the impaired assets at a price agreed to with the banks , and make the final settlement of gains and losses with the banks after reselling. Another useful lesson for the US is to have a clear exit strategy with a clear time frame. This makes nationalization a temporary measure only and with a time frame by which shares held by the government in banks or nationalized failed banks, should be turned over to the private sector. This is Korea's contribution to the G-20 summit in London in early April 2009....

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Technology is reshaping the world of oil by 2018. The U.S. Permian Basin stretching from West Texas to New Mexico now produces more oil than the UAE and is likely to soon surpass Iran- production is at 3.1 million barrels a a day. There are as many rigs as in 2011 yet the production has tripled because of the use of high tech rigs that can move quickly to new locations over wide areas and with tech that can see hundreds of feet into the rock. By 2019 the U.S. will surpass Russia as the world's largest producer of oil. The drop in oil prices to about $40 a barrel in recent years is a result of Saudi efforts to block shale oil development by lowering prices. This has not worked. Initially some high cost producers exited the industry and the shale industry suffered. Over time the new technologies spurred by lower oil prices have led to the anticipated drop in cost. Shale oil can now be produced by core producers at $40 a barrel and still be profitable according to this WSJ report. All Middle Eastern countries cannot meet budget needs at $40 a barrel. In 2018 oil prices increased back up to $77 a barrel. In the next wave of declining prices the shale industry is better positioned than the OPEC countries.   ...

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USA car sales drop 37% in January 2009 over same period in 2008. Sales at GM dropped 49%, at Ford 40% and Chrysler 55%, at Toyota 32%, at Honda 28%, at Nissan 30%. Subaru and Hyundai saw sales increases. Analysts at IHS Global Insight say the stimulus package may help prevent things from getting much worse, but it would be wrong to count on the stimulus package for a pickup in sales in the second half of this year. This is ominous for the Detroit car companies as they seek government help to avert bankruptcy. Chrysler is hoping to make tieup with Fiat, but it will be a year before Fiat cars make it to the US and longer for its cars to be made in the US, so it is not clear what will happen in 2010. Ford's economists think the market is nearing bottom, but if that is not the case it may prove risky for Ford.

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Risks to the economies of western Europe through the banking system and its lending to Eastern European economies are growing. The Easter European economies that are collapsing are Europe's version of the sub prime crisis in the USA. This may ricochet back to the United States as European institutional investors pull money out of the US stock market. Europan banks could suffer a further increase in nonperforming loans, and need further recapitalization from their governments, which are already hardpressed by demands for shoring up the social safey nets, stimulus spending and bank rescues. Big institutional investors in Western Europe, the banks, pension funds and insurance companies, hold large amounts of Eastern European debt, and further infusions of capital from western governments would put increasing pressure on the Euro.

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In an interview with Rolling Stone magazine, the commander in Afghanistan, General McChrystal, responds to a question about Vice President Biden, and says, "who is that?" An aide jumps in saying, is that "Bite Me?" These and other words of disdain for the Vice President and other policy advisors, are seen as the kind of frustration facing commanders from the slow progress in the enlarged effort in Afghanistan. It also brings to the fore the serious questions that have always remained, some raised by Biden, Reidel and others, of how any kind of success could be achieved without a reliable partner in the Afghan government, with the complicated situation in Pakistan where the Intelligence Services pursued a different agenda from that of the government, and with little interest from the people in the rural areas in a vast rural mountainous country, Kabul a little urban dot in a huge landscape of deserts and mountains. See the groups and links for Afghanistan and Pakistan for background.

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A Tax Policy Center study (joint project of the Brookings Institution and the Urban Insitute) shows $157 billion would be generated in the first year from an increase in taxes on the top 1% of income earners in the U.S., about 1.13 million households earning average $2.1 million, by increasing the federal tax rate from current 33.4% for this group to 40%. This could pay for a program to provide tution free education in America's colleges and universities. Even increasing the federal tax to 40% on the 115,000 households earning over $9.4 million on average, the top 0.1% of American households, would generate $55 billion in the first year, enough to pay for the $47 billion cost of tution free education at all of America's public colleges and universities, according to the Tax Policy Center. Economists including Stiglitz and others, point to significant impact of revenue generated from such a tax when applied to improving educational opportunity for the middle class and lower income groups. Education is a great leveler of income disparities as seen in the U.S. after World War II. During recent decades the highest income groups weren major beneficiaries of tax and economic policy, at the very time the middle class and factory workers were hit hard by global competition which lowered wages and exported jobs. The interest rate policies of the Fed after boom bust cycles also favored large investors in equity markets over smaller income earners with savings account deposits, whose savings experienced little growth under interest rates close to zero. ...

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Vice President Biden says "I would not refer to Mubarak as a dictator," showing a lack of sensitivity and understanding of the Egyptian people's demands for freedom of expression, human rights, and democracy. Harshaw says that its clear the Mubarak regime has been wounded at the core. In the light of this the Obama administration's hesitant and timid response to the protests against 30 years of one party rule under Mubarak is baffling. It means the US will have to bear the costs of being on the wrong side of public opinion in the Arab world says Harshaw. And President Obama has failed to bring the much needed change that he promised for US relations with Africa, the Arab world, and the developing world. Apart from improvement of relations with Turkey, the failure of the Obama administration to grasp opportunities for forging a new era of relations with the Muslim world.

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The crisis in Eastern Europe where 13 countries have accumulated close to $1 trillion in collective debt to western European banks or in foreign currencies. The need for a fund like the one proposed by Hungary, with roughly $240 billion, to bailout the Eastern European countries.

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Reilly points out that removing the government and "putting private capital back at the center of a healthier" housing-finance system, as recommended in a policy paper from the Treasury Department, is only possible if the government gives up the idea of a 30 year mortgage. Thirty year loans as currently structured are not attractive to investors without a government guarantee. The revival of securities markets for mortgages not backed by the government is not possible with the 30 year mortgage. There are benefits from the government getting out of the mortgage markets. A significant benefit is that there would be less incentive to invest in housing, so that more capital is available to other productive areas of the economy leading to higher economic growth. In fact the diversion of economic resources from more productive uses to housing was a major problem in the last decade.

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Mr Obama's vision of a nuclear weapons free world going back to his days at Columbia University. There as a senior he took Prof. Michael Baron's seminar on international politics and American policy. In a paper for that course Mr Obama analyzed how a President might go about negotiating nuclear arms reductions with Russia. Baron says Obama has been thinking about these issues for a long time. About this time Obama wrote an essay in the Columbia Sundial student newspaper. This was the time when the Greens movement for a nuclear weapons free world was strong in Germany, and Reagan was pushing for a nuclear arms development race with Russia. The article was titled "Breaking the War Mentality." As a senator Obama joined Senator Dick Lugar -who has worked hard for non-proliferation- on a trip to Russia to monitor efforts by Ruusia to scrap nuclear arms and secure atomic materials from theft or diversion. He allied himself with four Reagan period veterans Kissinger, Shultz, Perry and Sam Nunn, who in a 2007 WSJ op-ed article, argued that it was time- as the headline for the article said -to work for "A World Free of Nuclear Weapons." The steps in practice Obama plans to take are the following. A Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, which would bar all nations signing it from making fuel for their atomic bombs. Rewriting crucial provisions of the 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, strengthening inspection provisions and closing loopholes that let N. Korea drop out in 2003. Countries would have to give up the freedom to make fuel for reactors and instead buy it from an international fuel bank. Global consensus and prevention when it comes to deviant states hoping to enhance their own security, or regimes or terrorist groups, will be crucial in setting up a new system for a nuclear weapons free world....

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Porter cites research by Andrew Berg and Jonathan Ostry of the IMF, which shows the strong connections between having a vibrant middle class, lower inequality and the sustainability of economic growth. In countries with higher inequality growth comes in spurts which fizzle out, and there are sharp contractions. Having good income distribution is important according to Berg and Ostry, if the process of economic growth is to be sustained. This logic is also supported by the need for a strong middle class for consumer spending, to provide the demand that supports growth.