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The Wall Street Journal in a recent editorial called the European Union's June 2011 plan for Greece "the French Deception," because it favored French and German banks but made Greece's debt burden even less manageable. The Economist views the European Union actions with disdain and says they are sure to fail. It is skeptical whether the spending cuts will work because Greece's politicians are not likely to address the problems of poor tax and other payments collection, and is too interconnected with favored groups and lobbies to be able to take the needed actions. And spending cuts will fall hard on ordinary Greeks. Even with job cuts the sense is that it will fall not on full time civil servants with permanent contracts but people with temporary contracts. The Economist cites the example of items such as the overgenerous markup allowed for pharmacists that adds another 1.5 billion euros to the budget which will remain untouched as an example of many such items where the cuts will not fall because of strong lobbies and favored interests. The privatization scheme is deemed unrealistic because it expects to raise 51 billion euros in a crash sale of assets, which only makes it more likely that assets could fall into the hands of cronies with the right connections. The current efforts only make ordinary Greeks worse off with spending cuts and new taxes. The negative impact on economic growth of the austerity cuts creates the prospect for a deeper recession, political turmoil, and a debt default....

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Speaking at the Economc Club of Indiana, U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke, says responsibility for fiscal policy lies fully on Congress and the administration. Monetary easing through QE I,II and III, which reduces the borrowing costs of the U.S. government by keeping interest rates low, cannot be seen as taking pressure off Congress and the administration, as critics claim. He countered criticism by saying: "Suppose notwithstanding our legal mandate, the Federal Reserve were to raise interest rates for the purpose of making it more expensive for the government to borrow. Such an action would substantially increase the deficit, not only because of higher interest rates, but also because the weaker recovery that would result from premature monetary tightening would further widen the gap between spening and revenues." Lawmakers would be no more inclined to come up with a program to reduce the deficit in this situation argues Bernanke. This statement of Bernake only reaffirms that low interest rates are an important goal here in the U.S.,- just as they are for France and other countries in Europe that are faced with tackling large debt and deficits- and are part of the overall solution for the government to manage its finances....

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Russia's decision to make Crimea an autonomous region inside Russia. This follows a referendum in which Crimeans voted to join Russia. Russian president Putin says Russia has no further interest in the rest of Ukraine.

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Daniel Yergin of consultancy firm IHS describes the geopolitical disputes in the Middle East between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran that are leading to likely continued oversupply of oil in 2016, keeping prices in the $30-$40 range. Saudi Arabia is not likely to change its policy of going after market share, Venezuela is affected but lacks a voice in OPEC decisions, Russia continues its policies in Syria and Iraq under the Putin government affecting other Sunni states, and Iran following the lifting of sanctions is likely to ramp up supply to make up for its lost market share- all leading to an extended period of low prices. This situation benefits China, the European Union countries, India, Turkey and the U.S. in a period of slow economic growth in 2015-2016. Russia looks to use this period of low oil prices to shift to domestic industry after a period of rising imports when oil prices were high. The Saudis seeing their interests in the region threatened by Iran and Russia, and dissatisfied with the foreign policy of president Obama, see a policy of pushing for market share as appropriate in the current geopolitics of the region....

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Polls just days before the French presidential election show independent candidate Macron getting about 60% of the 18-24 year age group. There is discontent in this age group because of high unemployment. The unemployment rate is 24% for people below age 25, higher than 18% before the financial crisis of 2008, compared to 7% in Germany for this age group. For people 25 to 29 years it is 14%. This is why Marie Le Pen has appeal in economically struggling northern towns. Yet most French people are finding it difficult to take on an agenda as radical as Le Pen's that takes France out of the eurozone. In the final debate just 24 hours before the vote Le Pen entered into a discussion about leaving the eurozone but showed she had no clear idea of what this would mean for France. She described Brexit as an example and Macron shot back that Britain was never in the eurozone to begin with, and it appeared that Le Pen was just hoping that it would all work out, without a clear grasp of the facts. She had no response to Macron on how an exit could create panic in the markets and lower the value of savings of ordinary French people by about 20%. On pensions she stated that 60 was the age for retirement under her plan opening herself up to the criticism that she had no clear idea of the facts as Macron pointed out- that it would mean lower benefits or higher payments into the retirement system. This may be why even some young people who see the banking experience of Macron as a liability, may be offset by others who see this as a possible asset because of the need for some valuable experience in an independent candidate, as described by Dalton.    ...

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The political risk in China as the change of leadership takes place in 2012, and with the removal of Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai. The slowing of manufacturing activity and slowdown in growth expected in 2012-2014. Export growth declines to 6.8% from 14.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011. Quarterly surveys by the central bank shows demand for loans is dropping. And the HSBC purchasing managers index shows a reading of 48.1 in March, declining from 49.6% in February, showing shrinking manufacturing activity in China- anything less than 50 means contraction is taking place.

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Wages in emerging markets such as Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia are rising following an increase in wages in China. Malaysia's government announced a minimum wage for the first time. China increased its minimum wage by 8.6% to 1260 yuan ($199) in January 2012. Shenzen region minimum wage was raised 14% to 1500 yuan, and Tianjin region's by 13% to 1310 yuan, according to Xinhua news agency. Rise in minimum wage has ranged from 40% in Thailand to 20% in Indonesia. The new minimum wage proposed by Malaysia's government is about 900 ringgit ($264-$297). In Thailand the new minimum wage is set at 300 baht ($9.78) a day, an increase of about 40%.

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The shortage of labor will make the transition to a workweek of less than 60 hours for existing factory workers in China difficult, say experts. The transition to better working hours will take some time to be implemented as required by China's new labor laws and public pressure in the U.S. and China.

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Beppe Severgnini is a columnist for Italy's newspaper Corriere della Serra. Here he describes the rift between generations in Italy that is holding Italy back.

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India's central bank chief, Rajan, favors a lower inflation target of 4%, with fluctuations of 2% up or down. Lower inflation is critical for India to achieve higher growth rates. The World Bank lowered the rate of growth in the global economy but kept the rate of growth of 6.4% for India unchanged. Rajan also favors creating a more formal system for setting rates, with a committee like the Open Market Committee in the U.S. deliberating over the different factors for such a decision. Rajan was a professor at the University of Chicago, and chief economist at the IMF, before joining the central bank. Central bank policies have helped stabilize India's currency, the rupee. The lower cost of oil for India with an oil import bill of $100 billion is a big boost for economic growth. For the global economy this comes at a time when China's growth rate is slowing to below 7%.

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Galston says Hillary Clinton is right to say as she did at Roosevelt Island in her opening campaign speech, that "growth and fairness go together, for lasting prosperity, you can't have one without the other." Economic growth was at 4% for 5 of 8 years of the Clinton presidency, but in the 15 years since the economy has managed 3% only twice in the George Bush presidency, and fallen below 2.5% in the last 5 years. The high growth rate following World War II was a result of the increase in the workforce and productivity. The workforce increased by 2% annually between 1950 and 2000. Since then as female participation peaked and the baby boomers reached retirement age the workforce has increased by 0.7%, and is slowing to 0.5% annual growth for the next decade. Growth in productivity of 1.9% between 1991 and 2007, slowed to 0.4% after 2010. Galston tells the next president to go all out to increase the labor force- adopt family friendly policies similiar to Europe so more women can work, get more immigrants into the labor force, more elderly should be encouraged to work given the better health, reduce the college dropout rate to reduce incarceration and bring more young people into the labor force, get more people who qualify for disability but could work part time into the labor force, and emphasize the importance of increasing the labor force participation rate a policy being followed by the Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen....

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Equity markets in Europe and the U.S. are likely to see some of the 62 trillion yen, or $630 billion, which the Bank of Japan plans to add to holdings of banks and households in two years 2013-2014. A senior advisor to Deutsche Bank, Thomas Mayer, says equities of Germany, France and Britain are likey to see interest from Japanese investors, as are bonds and equities of the U.S. Japanese companies such as Toyota and consumer product companies such as Sony and Panasonic will now be able to better compete on price against their S. Korean, American and European competitors.

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Shipping and freight statistics show an increase of shipments from Mexico. Trains and truck shipments from Mexico to the U.S. increased by 8.7% by weight in the first 11 months of 2011 compared to the prior year. By comparison shipping containers entering the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach went down by 0.2% in 2011. Mexico stands to benefit from the shift in dynamics as manufacturing costs in China increase with labor constraints, higher wages, higher commercial land prices and recent Asian supply chain issues making firms wary of unanticipated problems. This is expected to benefit the U.S. with the return of some manufacturig jobs and a serious rethink of outsourcing. Because of highly automated factories and advanced technologies the manufacturing process requires fewer and more skilled operators, reducing the labor component of costs. Carlisle Companies CEO, David Roberts says he is expanding tire manufacturing plants in Tennessee. He says he can make tires as cheaply or cheaper in the U.S than in China. This has serious implications as the U.S. gets down to rebuilding and renewal of its manufacturing industry....

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In August 2008 Russia invaded Georgia and established the independence of the 2 breakaway countries of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgia tried to enter NATO that year but the French and the Germans objected, and the U.S. did not want to commit deep in the Caucasus region. In the 2012 election the anti-Moscow government of Mr. Saakashvili was replaced by a government that sought friendly relations with the West and with Russia. There are still no embassies between Russia and Georgia. A special representative to Russia was appointed in the new government of Mr. Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire who made his money in metals and banking in Russia. Saakashvili is now a Ukrainian citizen and is a governor of Odessa province, on the Black Sea, with separatist influence. Russia's trade ties with Georgia, a destination for Georgia's exports including wine, are gradually being restored after a trade embargo imposed in 2006. The trade embargo was lifted in 2013. The representative to Russia says its no use keeping the illusion of NATO membership even though it is an objective, as Georgia has to defend itself, the consequence of being in a difficult region. The strident anti-Russian rhetoric is now muted, as Georgia rethinks its relationship with Russia and the West to live in a difficult neighborhood. Ukraine went through some wild swings with the Orange Revolution, and the change in government to a pro-Russian government that jailed the earlier leader for corruption, leading to the protest movement calling for close relations to the West, the collapse of the elected pro-Russian government followed by the election of Mr. Poroshenko, and the Russian intervention in Ukraine in 2014-2015, leading to western sanctions on Russia. The sanctions end in Jan 31, 2016. The situation in Ukraine may stabilize where the NATO readiness force and German chancellor Merkel's call for "a persistent NATO presence in the Baltic states," lead to a situation where Russia determines the best course is cooperation with its neighbors, and trade, economic relations....

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Easwar Prasad, Cornell University economist, and a former head of the IMF's China division, says the new report by the World Bank and the Development Reform Commission (DRC), is part of an effort by government officials in China to push the agenda for change forward during the transition to a new leadership. This includes Premier Wen. There is pushback from large state enterprises. The DRC and the World Bank had called for a change from the current situation to allow more private sector involvement in the economy, which means restricting the growth of the large state owned companies and letting the private sector operate in more parts of the economy. The alternative is to see growth slowing quickly and -some economists- say suddenly without warning. The role of Zhu Rongji, a former prime minister during the period Jiang Zemin was president, in pushing for changes appropriate to the period, is also cited. The last decade under prime minister Wen Biao is seen as one in which China relentlessly pursued its currrent export led model of development with large state run companies and state run banks dominating the economy. This has made change even harder to achieve because of the pushback to preserve the status quo....

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The IMF in April 2012 said Spain may have moved too aggressively with austerity measures. The IMF said: The new deficit target in Spain "could have accomodated more fully the impact of the weak growth outlook." This supports the Spanish government's view that it has to balance controlling spending measures and redctions in spending with considerations that take into account the weakness of the economy and high unemployment. One of the important considerations is that the private sector and banks faced with losses in the housing bubble are not likely to generate growth at this time, leaving growth dependent on government spending; which if cut too quickly could lead to declining GDP and even lower tax revenues with higher deficits. The government of prime minister Rajoy is faced with the difficult task of creating credibility in financial markets about controlling years of spending by regional governments during the housing boom, and at the same time applying prudence in not taking steps that would hurt the economy at a delicate time....

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Faiola points to public opinion in Ireland that shows the recovery in Ireland looks better on paper than it really is. Opinion polls show a large gap between the views of the government and of people in Ireland. EU estimates of growth in GDP of about 1% is inflated by profits of multinational companies such as eBay, Facebook and Google, a large part of which is repatriated. The multinational companies employ only 7% of the workforce. In reality consumer spending, retail sales and bank lending have suffered, and unemployment is at 14%. The feeling in Ireland is that the austerity cuts alone- spending cuts, higher sales and property taxes- with no effort to support growth, will leave the country in this situation for many years. A ruling by Ireland's attorney general that a referendum is required for approval of the new EU agreement on fiscal discipline, means that a referendum wll be held in June 2012. In 2001 and 2008 Ireland rejected EU treaties, only to obtain concessions and approve the treaty in second referendums. This time the referendum is expected to be seen as a vote on the three year agreement reached by Ireland with the EU, the IMF, and ECB in 2010, as its banks were on the verge of collapse in a property bubble. That agreement imposed strict austerity measures. Under the treaty terms only 12 of 17 EU countries have to ratify the treaty. The Socialist candidate in upcoming French presidential elections, Mr. Hollande, has called for renegotiation of the fiscal treaty to include measures to promote growth. For young people in particular, immigration- to Australia, New Zealand, Canada- is looking like an attractive option. For new graduates jobs are scarce, and cuts in university subsidies mean additional out of pocket costs of over $8000 a year with no student loan options....

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Spain's prime minister Mariano Rajoy repeats his request that the $125 billion from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the eurozone rescue fund, be sent directly to recapitalize Spanish banks, instead of being sent to the Spanish government. Capital markets did not respond positively to the aid announcement and Spain's 10 year bonds yields were close to 7%, one point higher than before the aid announcement. Rajoy told the other leaders at the G-20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, that it is necessary "to break the link between risk in the banking sector and the sovereign risk," according to a Spanish official. The European Commission and some EU governments support this, but Germany remains opposed to such a move. Spain paid higher rates on 3.04 billion euros in short term debt financed on June 19, 2012. Spain plans to sell 2 billion euros of two, three and five year bonds on June 21. Part of the problem for investors is the lack of clear accounting and transparency of the total debt of regional governments in Spain, and bad loans at banks, which it is feared could be much larger than the $125 billion in rescue funds from the EFSF. This is a result of the housing and asset bubble in Spain of the last two decades since joining the EU. The $125 billion would take Spanish debt to GDP ratios to 90%, which is lower than Italy's but comes at a time of unemployment at over 25% and a declining GDP, increasing investor uncertainty....

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Spain's central bank was lauded for macroprudential supervision before the housing bubble burst. Will China's central bank and financial authorites which have managed the housing bubble upto this point face similiar problems? Can China be the sole exception even as housing bubbles burst with wide repercussions in the U.S., UK and Spain? Nicholas Lardy, of the Peterson Institute of international Economics, says urban housing stock makes up 41% of Chinese household wealth in 2011. The same figure for the U.S. is 26%. Chinese buyers invest in homes because low interest rates on savings accounts cannot keep up with inflation. Real estate investment was 13% of GDP in 2011. Home ownership is a recent development in China, only since 1990, Chinese have never experienced large price declines. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income has increased significantly in recent years, up to 53.6% in 2011 from 31.3% in 2008, according to Lardy.