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Greg Ip tells India's story, piped water for hundreds of millions of Indians, massive increases in road and rail, rapid development of infrastructure, aviation, ports logistics. WSJ graph shows country growth of economies for Japan, China, India, Germany in 2000 and 2020. By 2000 Japan had grown its economy to become about half the size of the US economy with two decades of rapid growth since 1980. China repeated this process with two decades of hyper growth since 2000 to become about 75% of the US economy by 2020. The graphs also show Japanese growth tailing off so rapidly after 2000 in relation to the US economy that it is now only about 25% of the US economy. China is likely to follow the same path as growth slows and with an aging population to become about 35-40% of the US economy by 2040 from 75%. India following the process that happened in Japan and in China is likely to become close to 35-40% of the US economy by 2040 from about 18% today, with the fastest growth over the next two decades for the most populous country in the world. Greg Ip points out what has been achieved since 2014 with the Modi government. Good governance without leakages of public funds dedicated to infrastructure, ease of living, GST one India one tax so that growing pool of funds from taxes fund rapid development with no leakages to corrupt officials,  Swacch Bharat or Clean India, clean water from taps, electricity and cooking gas for the whole population of India with dates for completion. All this Ip calls removal of the shackles that existed for far too long even past 2000 and 2010 when China had vastly surpassed India from its low point in 1980 after Mao and the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. India today is in as much a pace of development as China in the 1990's and Japan in the 1960's, except that it now has the benefit of grasping how development can be done in a way that does not affect climate and health in adverse ways as happened with China's hyper growth -which also led to the tragic loss of manufacturing for workers and communities in the US and Europe due to the economic theories of laissez faire of the Reagan era. Reagan theory for governments not working with industry that were applied indiscriminately during the Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump presidencies for three decades led to shipping manufacturing overseas with no regard for the risks and dangers. What Greg Ip fails to mention is the uniqueness of India that is united by Vedanta, Hinduism and Buddhism for thousands of years, and which keeps the fabric of society together when it is divided by 13 language groups. These 13 language groups are: Hindi 43% of the population, Bengali 8%, Marathi 7%, Telugu 7%, Tamil 6%, Gujarati 5%, Urdu 4%, Kannada 4%, Odia 3%, Malayalam 3%, Punjabi 3%, Assamese 1%, English 1%. It was the vision of the early leaders Vivekananda, Gokhale, Mohandas Gandhi, Nehru, Sardar Patel, that united a diverse country with many languages and cultural variation. And it is this vision of Vivekananda that is creating the Good Governance under Sab ka Vikas, Sab ka Viswas, Sab ke Saath, Sab ka Prayas of today- development for all, with the confidence of all, with the support of all, the efforts of all. Without a disciplined direction based on hard work India could not make it this far or fulfill the aspirations of its youthful population by 2040. ...

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It is shocking to see the virtual lack of cultural or other people to people contacts between the two largest regions in Asia, and most populous regions in the world, India and China. There appears to be a near total lack of understanding on both sides at the university and government level of the importance of setting up these contacts, so that misperceptions do not exist on either side and better relations can be built using such contacts. Rana Mitter, a expert on Modern China at Oxford University, says in an interview in the Times of India, that India and the 1962 conflict occupy less attention in the Chinese mind because other issues such as the relations with the U.S., ASEAN and Japan, take up more space. Mitter says India should emphasize its pluralism, democracy, and peaceful engagement in its external relations.  Mitter puts less emphasis on the 50 day standoff between India and China on the border at Doklam, Bhutan region, when he responds to a question about the risks of a conflict. He points to a bigger problem that affects relations between the two countries- the lack of exchanges that bring Chinese students, faculty, and government personnel to India, the difficulty of obtaining visas. This lack of cultural exchanges between the two countries is a major issue, considering also that trade and business exchanges are taking place and growing during this lack of cultural exchanges.  As a result it appears that business and economic relations guide the China-India relationship today, with people in China's key ministries and government, in universities and local government, lacking an understanding of India. Mitter makes this clear that cultural exchanges need to be established. Even a search for China- India dialogue brings up little information with a location in Beijing but none in India. It is mind boggling that the relations between the two most populous regions in the world are based on a huge lack of contacts and exchanges that would improve perceptions and understanding.  Britain's effort offers a model to follow as Tsinghua University in Beijing, as part of China's C9, has set up cultural exchanges with British universities in the ongoing cultural exchanges between Britain and China. ...

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Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute points to trade barriers reducing competition and free trade that should raise an outcry when free trade and competition advocates focus alone on the Trump steel tariffs. He points to estimates that show $90 billion in additional costs to Americans from the barriers that prevent Americans from paying world market prices for surgeries and medical treatment, prices similar to what is paid in advanced countries like Germany, Britain and France. A bigger barrier in pharmaceuticals prices being sheltered from market competition worldwide costs a huge $370 billion in additional costs to Americans. These two costs in healthcare would help Americans by a magnitude compared to tax cuts that do not work for average Americans with the business tax cut going more into share buybacks than into increasing wages or capital investment in 2018.  Bernstein points to Neil Irwin's column in the NYT that flags statements such as Senator Mike Lee, Republican, that the steel tariffs are a huge job killing tax hike, as being misleading. Bernstein says two actions were never taken that would have used benefits of free trade to help affected communities that lost jobs in industries such as steel and textiles, other industries affected by foreign competition.  He lists these steps as sectoral employment training, apprenticeships ,and job creation efforts in the worst affected areas. Basically no one really knows what is good trade policy, the textbook concepts and theories are out of date when countries can subsidize particular industries such as steel and dump products into the American market. At a press conference on CSPAN with the Swedish prime minister Mr. Trump stated that China was exporting more than what is officially shown as there are transshipments from other countries, some of them with no steel mills.  As Mr. Trump stated at that press conference he was elected partly because of the worst affected communities- in places such as Michigan and other states in the midwestern U.S.- that suffered from unfair trade. Bernstein admonishes the economists and politicians, media, for the headlines that are misleading in showing that bad trade policy is being pursued and trade wars are being started. This deserves attention because the Trump administration and advisors such as Lighthizer who served in the Reagan administration seek fair trade, and the Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross successfully pushed for NAFTA trade deal renegotiation not the outright rejection of NAFTA that was mentioned in the election campaign. Ironically no one is helped by this trade rhetoric and misleading headlines. In fact the strengthening of the U.S. currency as the huge trade surplus of China goes into U.S. assets, and with the election of Mr. Trump, gives foreign competitors a continued advantage. And in fact Japan, South Korea, China, had a mild response to the tariffs as reported, because these countries are aware of global overcapacity created especially by China which produces 50% of the world's steel, and as China shifts to higher technologically value added products closing many older steel mills. ...

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WSJ interview with Narendra Modi before he meets Joe Biden at the White House. This interview talks about India seeking larger role in world affairs, about Indian democracy. Seen from inside India the perspective is different. India is at the same stage where China was in 1990-2000 with the rising aspirations of a billion people, Japan in the Meiji period in 1900. It is all about jobs, investment, technologies and manufacturing on a scale that surpasses China in that period with newer technologies to meet the rising aspirations of 1.4 billion people. China's trade with the US was three times higher than the Indian trade with the US in 2022, India desperately wants to catch up and fast. The Danish ambassador to India was asked what he saw in India today and he said it was the rising confidence of people that struck him most. The digitalization that has changed the way government benefits are provided to 1.4 billion people and opened bank accounts for all, provided delivery of services to all parts of the population. The infrastructure that is being built at breakneck pace, and new colleges and universities expanding access to quality education, healthcare.   ...

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China's central banks cuts the reserve requirement ratio, the amount of money banks need to keep at the central bank, by half a percentage point. Banks are required to use the money that is freed up of $100 billion to help heavily indebted companies and small business lacking collateral to get new loans.

This is a response to the Trump tariffs on $100 billion of Chinese goods with a equal response from China and the trade war between China and the U.S., so that the Chinese economy can be bolstered before the impact of the tariffs hurts the economy. In the past China was reluctant to reduce the reserve requirement. Chinese debt soared with local government debt and debt accumulated from the 2008 large stimulus in the financial crisis.

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Otis Elevator is moving a plant based in Nogales, Mexico, back to the U.S. This plant was moved to Mexico in 1998 for cost reasons. Now Otis CEO, Didier Michaud-Daniel, says producing at a new South Carolina plant will cost less than Mexico. Logistics and freight costs are 17.3% less in the U.S. than Mexico, and an additional 20% in savings come from "efficiencies" gained by having all its white collar workers associated with elevator design and production. Most companies that manufacture in China and Mexico keep their design and engineering jobs in the the U.S. It is not clear to what extent American companies have considered all the costs of separating design and engineering from manufacturing, including the opportunities for close cooperation possible in one location that are lost when everything is so spread out. At Otis toolmakers in Dallas and engineers and designers located in Indiana and Arizona traveled to the Nogales, Mexico plant. This can be especially important when as in Otis's case the new plant in Florence, South Carolina, plans the launch of a new generation of elevator designs. In this case there is an added benefit by making it easier for customers to visit the plant and look at the product. The new plant will have more automation and use fewer workers on the factory floor. The new factory will employ 360 workers including white collar workers, the same as the Nogales, Mexico, plant with a lower number of factory floor workers. ...

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The place is Spain, see adjacent article on places within Spain. If you know Spanish that is an added advantage to talk to the locals. It has changed over the years. In the 1990's one could go to Madrid and freely walk out of the Puerta de Atocha main train station there with little traffic. Over the years after the financial crisis Madrid and Spain suffered. Under PM Pedro it has recovered. Yet it is not the same with international tourism from China, India, US having made visits crowded and less friendly. There is the garbage can index for tourism that tells you something is wrong when garbage cans are overflowing- it happened as tourism jumped to France in the last 2 decades- with garbage overflowing outside Notre Dame before renovation. (After 1993 Japan removed all garbage cans from streets.) About 100 million tourist visited France in 2024 and 80 million to Spain. It brings $100 billion in tourism receipts to Spain and about $80 billion each for France and UK, so that it is a key source of revenue for countries. How to make trips that avoid the rush - careful planning for season and month, finding the right places depending on one's interests nature, history, science, or other, and avoiding tours as there are plenty of resources to do it on one's own, finding right places to stay and visit, using local transport, tram and speed trains in Europe, giving enough time for each place, talking to locals and taking a lesson on Rocket languages online which uses locals and practices word pronunciation so you sound like a local. ...

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IEA Director Fatih Birol says conservation of energy plans should be undertaken by all nations. He says Gulf countries and Saudi oil output will not be the same even when the war ends and the shipping lanes in the Hormuz Straits will not be handling the volumes of 100 ships that passed through the sea channel before the Iran War. Yet he says the best solution is for opening the Straits of Hormuz. This raises some serious questions about depending on the Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf for oil supplies in 2027 and beyond. Can conservation, new sources of oil, acceleration of renewable energy use and electric car technologies lead to making the Middle East oil supplies becoming redundant, doing without this supply or turning it into a marginal source which would lower oil prices even further to the $50 level? Energy use decline for the same or higher GDP levels have potential in the US, China and India. Japan and Germany have cut energy use by about 50% in Japan and 35% in Germany with slightly higher Real GDP levels than 1996 in Japan and a 50% increase in Germany over a 30 year period( using 2015 as base year).  Major renewable energy gains have been made in the last 10 years with solar and wind technologies and electric car technologies. Much of the gains in electric car technologies lies ahead and this would cut crude oil significantly for cars and trucks which makes up 60-70% of oil use. Add to this conservation technologies. Other sources of oil can be found. And Venezuelan, Alaskan oil can be ramped up to replace volatile sources from the Middle East.  ...

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A complete reversal of the Monroe Doctrine (US president Monroe 1817-1825) policies -that kept the American continent north and south free of colonial European powers- is an affront to the US and has cost the US in Latin America. With fentanyl deaths and drug trafficking, migrant trafficking, interference by foreign powers in the Americas In Cuba, Venezuela and other countries, and ports owned by China in South America.  Hong Kong magnate Li Ka-Shing's Hutchison Holdings sale of Panama Canal ports to Black Rock for $23 billion takes place on March 4, 2025. The two ports on both sides of the Panama Canal will now be in American hands. Li Ka Shing started out fleeing from the devastated China of the Sino Japanese war to the British colony of Hong Kong, left school at 15 to work and started out with a small plastics factory in 60's Hong Kong. He then branched out into real estate as Hong Kong's economy expanded, and in the 2000-2020 period with rapid growth of China with US assistance (Clinton and Bush administrations) moved to acquire most of the ports and container terminals in the world. It is these ports that are now being bought back by the US. 23 ports and container terminals in 43 countries will now be sold back by Li Ka-Shing's Hutchison Holdings back to Black Rock under an agreement. None of this could have happened under the lackadiasical policies of previous administrations that led to first affront and then disastrous effects of migrant trafficking and drug trafficking in this hemisphere.   ...

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In addition to the efforts by protests to preserve Hong Kong's special autonomous status, there is a protest by students "Occupy Central," similiar to the "Occupy Wall Street" protests. That aspect of the protest is aimed less at Beijing than at the financial establishment in Hong Kong. Because of its role as financial capital in Asia a lot is at stake for the U.S., Britain, and for China itself, in preserving the special role that Hong Kong has enjoyed for two decades since 1997 transfer from Britain. That independent role and separate status is needed for a world financial centre and access to the best human resources.

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The Iran Saudi talks had already taken place and there was a sense of fatigue on both sides after the prolonged war in Yemen. The Chinese mediation was able to build on this to get the two sides to discuss their differences and come to an agreement. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is very different. China's interest in ending the war in Ukraine comes from its need to not let relations with the European Union deteriorate any further, as this will affect China's economic growth. The pandemic and supply chain shift to home country manufacturing is not likely to change even if China finds a way to keep its relations with the European Union from deteriorating further, as this shift is seen by the US and the European Union as part of the new way of meeting their own strategic interests in the new world following the pandemic.

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This opinion in the Hindu says India should respond effectively to maintain its relations with the ASEAN countries as part of its 'Act East' policy. As the U.S. partly withdraws from the region and China's influence increases India is shaping a new policy with ASEAN nations. All ASEAN nations were invited for India's Republic Day celebrations. Japan, India, Australia, and the U.S., are cooperating to ensure a rules based peaceful cooperation in the region. The views here are expressed by Harsh Pant of King's College, London. He says deeper and broad based engagement is needed with ASEAN, with India no longer playing a diffident role.

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Chris Buckley in the NYT today makes no mention of the Bo Xilai episode in 2012 and what this meant for Xi's future policy actions. Cheng Li calls it the most significant happening since the Lin Biao incident in 1971 and Tianmen in 1989. Brookings Institution offers this discussion of the Bo Xilai episode with Cheng Li, China expert on its economic and political elites. Cheng Li rejected the idea that China at the time in 2012 reflected "resilient authoritarianism," instead anticipating problems such as Bo Xilai emerging as a demagogue putting China in an ultranationalist and uncertain direction. This happened during the transition to a new team of leaders led by Xi Jinping in 2012. Xi could see the corruption in the CCP and the hypergrowth in China causing problems of irreparable environmental damage (now climate change), regional inequality, and offering an opening for demagogues to step into this mix of problems. Xi  acted devising policy shifts away from Hu Jintao and Wen Biao of the Bush-Paulsen era and pushing away from focus on rapid growth, shifting to counter inequality, unstable dependence on construction and housing, and excessive debt of that period. Little mention is given to this in NYT Chris Buckely's version of US-China relations in today's NYT (November 13, 2023). ...

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U.S. president elect Trump meets with the heads of tech businesses on Dec. 14, 2016. CEO's of Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft were present. Trump was exuberant about the advantages secured by U.S. tech companies in global business, saying- "there's nobody like you in the world. Anything that the government can do to help this go along, we're going to be there for you." The discussions covered need for more vocational education, advantages and disadvantages of trade with China, and immigration. Quarterly meetings of this type are now planned with a smaller group organized by Jared Kushner to cover immigration and education.  Jeff Bezos of Amazon described the meeting as "very productive." Bezos says he told the group that the best way was to use innovation to create jobs outside of tech in agriculture, infrastructure, manufacturing elsewhere, to create large number of jobs. Ginni Rometty, CEO of IBM, and other executives are part of the Strategic and Policy Forum set up to provide business input to the president. ...

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The Economist points out that China's total debt of government, corporate and households has grown by about 100% of GDP since 2008. The 2009 crisis led to rapid increase in debt. It is now about 250% of GDP, according to the Economist. Slower growth of below 7% risks reducing China's ability to service this debt. About half of this debt is owed by state owned companies and property developers. China can use its sovereign reserves to continue supporting bank and state owned companies. Investor's are pricing bank shares to reflect about 10% of this debt as bad debt even though government estimates are much lower. The reserves provided China time to fix the banking system since 2008, yet the debt keeps growing and China has failed to take strong action in the last 6 years. Complacency is a problem, and the incentives for local governments to continue prior practices that increase debt continue. As Krugman and other experts have pointed out at some point the rules of finance will apply to China as they have for other countries that faced a debt crisis- Japan in the late 1980's, South Korea and other Aisan countries in 1997, and the U.S. in 2008. Even without a crisis through deft managemen and use of reserves China risks zombifying the economy as old loans are backed up by new loans, with the further risk of misallocation of capital or poor use of capital. This lowers productivity of capital and hurts development. With poor statistics such as the figure of 1% of debt being bad debt cited here, the problems of complacency can be magnified, as there is less reason for a strong response....

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The US will sell 5 Virginia class nuclear submarines to Australia. Manufacturing will start in the US and be shifted to Australia with nuclear submarine visits to Perth in western Australia by 2027. The US will at some point augment its own nuclear submarine fleet where about 1.5 submarines are added each year. The new US fiscal 2024 defense budget will be $835 billion, higher than in 2023. Australia and Britain will acquire new technologies and the knowledge to maintain these submarines. This will help the US maintain its lead in undersea technologies over China. 

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The escalating tariffs by the EU. China and the U.S. affects global supply chains after years companies spent in building the optimal chain and locations. Tpo avoid duties companies are looking at them again and relocating to avoid the duties.

 

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“I would advise none of the countries to panic. I wouldn’t try to retaliate because as long as you don’t retaliate, this is the high end of the number.” This is the ceiling number Bessent told countries around the world about the Rose Garden Tariffs chart of April 2, 2025. Just don't retaliate and negotiations would work things out. Bessent said some countries say they would work with China. I have this to say to Spain about China, he said, it is like someone with brooms and a bucket of water, it keeps on going, production never stops, that is the Chinese model. What Bessent is saying is that the Chinese model is to keep doing what they have always done non stop with no intention to change- build capacity, overcapacity, and ship production overseas to saturate markets with production and destroy industrial base of other countries- from computers to solar panels to electric cars. China is also looking at it's very recent history just the last 15 years as proof of its superiority in cost and quality and efficiency in production as evidence that US and EU is in decline. Forgetting that this was possible with US assistance and desire to lift the Chinese people out of centuries of poverty. For the 19th and 20th century Britain, the US and Europe were leaders in cost, quality and efficiency. US , India and the EU are coming back using their ingenuity, creativity and talented workers and engineers. ...

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The EU with its $15.4 trillion economy is a bloc comparable in size to the U.S. $19.4 trillion economy. The French State Secretary for Europe, Mr. Lemoyne, says EU does not need to be worried about the way the USMCA, new version of NAFTA was negotiated with pressure from president Trump, as the Europeans are the largest trading power in the world. The EU exports to the U.S. are $252 billion, and up 5% in the seven months of 2018 over the preceding period. The U.S. by comparison exports $153 billion which has remained at the same level with a $600 million decline in the same period in 2018.  President Trump has put pressure on the EU to help improve the trade imbalance. Soya bean exports are pointed to by the EU as this has doubled in 2018, after China responded to U.S. sanctions by limiting soyabean imports. President Trump has stated his intention to impose tariffs on European car imports - trade worth $60 billion- to get the EU to offer concessions.  ...

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President Trump says he will reconsider his decision not to join the Trans Pacific Partnership. Trump says he will look for a "substantially better" deal that the one negotiated by president Obama. Trump added that the U.S. already has bilateral trade deals with six of the eleven nations in the TPP and negotiations are taking place with Japan a country with which the U.S. had difficulties in trade. This change of mind comes as Republicans in Congress and other groups including farm exporters are calling for using TPP as a way to pressure China. Wheat exporters in the U.S. say joining TPP would give them a level playing field with Australia and Canada for exports. This means reopening the negotiations with Japan conducted by the Obama administration and seeking more concessions from Japan. Japan's chief cabinet secretary says Japan has made all the concessions it could.  U.S. president Trump would have to come up with a better deal to justify joining TPP.

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Andy Kessler looks at the prospects for China's effort to dominate the market for advanced chips used in everyday devices, just as it did in solar panels and electric vehicle batteries.  He says Apple leaves US manufacturing technologies at a disadvantage by securing its M1 processor chip from Taiwan's TSMC. Intel has fallen behind in 10 nanometer chips and will need a few years says Kessler.  Kessler says Chinese threat to invade Taiwan which has made the US and the EU take a firmer stand on Ukraine poses a danger to TSMC which has 5 fabs or factories in just 1 science Park- Hsinchu Science Park. This poses a question is it safe to concentrate about 92% of the world's semiconductor production in one place Taiwan so close to the mainland of China? And knowing sit tight taking no action? Google's last chairman Eric Schmidt asks this question in the WSJ and calls for a new investments in the US to manufacture advanced semiconductors and other semiconductors for everyday use so that the US national security is protected. Even the $50 billion that is in Congressional legislation has yet to be approved by the US Congress, says Schmidt, showing that US Congress is not moving quickly to address this problem. South Korea and Taiwan including TSMC need to be told to make a large part of the semiconductors in the US and other locations such as India to diversify production. 92% of world semiconductors made in Taiwan that could be taken out with a few missiles, is no way to diversify manufacturing, when manufacturing can be done in India or other parts of the world with lower costs and with needed engineering manpower. ...

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Stock funds in the US which suffered decline of 18% in 2022 staged a recovery of 7.8% in January 2023. The Fed's ability to bring down inflation and the health of the economy, improving economic conditions in Europe, China, and India, provided supportive conditions.

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The effort to shift China's economc growth away from the rampant overbuilding in housing and industrial capacity of the past to domestic consumption, and focus on meeting the demand for better medical care, quality of food, education and other quality of life products. China's leaders met at the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing in Dec. 2015 to work out ways to make this shift so that growth rate of 6.5% and other goals can be met. Plans include reducing industrial overcapacity, dealing with overinvestment and unused inventory in housing, reducing financial risks from high corporate debt to GDP ratio approaching 160% estimated by Standard and Poors Ratings Services. By comparison the U.S. debt to GDP ratio is 70%. A steep rise resulted from the huge China stimulus program of 2008-2009, when the ratio was 98% for China. Experts such as Derek Scissors of the American Enterprise Institute are pessimistic about the prospects of successfully implementing reforms, saying reducing industrial overcapacity was a goal of the new Jinping Li-Keqiang leadership in 2013, but not much progress has been made in 2 years....

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Internet penetration is about 30% in India, compared to 50% in China and 87% in the U.S., according to the World Bank. The number of internet users increased from 375 million in Oct. 2015 to 402 million in Dec. 2015, according to Internet and Mobile Asssociation of India. Growth of internet users is increasing with the falling price of smartphones and mobile data usage.

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A Hyundai shipyard can build a military ship for $600 million that would cost the US about three times that number -$1.6 billion. South Korea can control costs with its marine shipyard capacity to build 40 ships a year in shorter time frame by 20 months. Note that the US had 17 shipyards in 1970, by 2020 it had dropped to 5 ships. Why is this a problem? China has this type of advantage in cost and expertise so that it would be even with the US current capacity by 2030.  Naval power made it possible for first Britain and then the US to provide the structure for the Modern World based on science and technology to grow and improve living standards. Unlike in the colonial era the US has helped raise living standards in China, India, South Korea, Indonesia, all parts of the world.  An administration that has focus and concentration in its leadership and is based on a concept of the Modern World based on science and technology is best suited for the task of renewing America for its role for the next generation of Americans. ...