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The threat posed by China's local government debt to China's banking and financial system
07/29/2010
Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the estimates of the local government debt varies from 27% to 42% of GDP. Prof Shih of Northwestern University, an expert on this subject, now estimates this to be $2.6 trillion or 42% of GDP. Other estimates from the National Audit Office put this at 27% and from China's central bank put this at 30%. Prof Shih's earlier estimate was 34%. Because of the large number of local government entities and the lack of transparency the figures may actually turn out to be higher as China's regulators and other analysts improve their estimates. The 42% estimate is $2.6 trillion in local government debt. China's large foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion and low interest rates will give China some space for addressing the problem with another round of injection of capital into the banking system.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2011
Where China Hides Its DebtBusinessWeek 07/29/2010
Strike at Honda and suicides at Hon Hai reflect worker dissatisfaction.
05/29/2010
Wages an issue at both companies. Military style discipline and monotony of life and work an issue at Hon Hai which employs 800,000 workers in China and is a key part of the Chinese manufacturing system which makes all kinds of electronic products
Linked Articles
Why Apple and Others Are Nervous About Foxconn
BusinessWeek 06/03/2010
Unrest May Signal New Phase in China EconomyNew York Times 05/29/2010
Rehman Malik's admission that the miliants are entrenched in the southern Punjab.
04/29/2010
How this affects the American war efforts allied with poor governance in Afghanistan as problems lead back to Pakistan.
Linked Articles
Official Admits Militancyâs Deep Roots in Pakistan
New York Times 06/02/2010
U.S. Report on Afghan War Finds Few Gains in 6 MonthsNew York Times 04/29/2010
Volcker, the Volcker Rule, and the risks of the concentration of assets in a few banks in the U.S. financial system
12/17/2009
Linked Articles
Charlie Rose Talks to Paul Volcker
BusinessWeek 10/27/2011
A Crisis Is a Terrible Thing to WasteBusinessWeek 12/17/2009
Why the Obama health care law gets an "F" grade from the Dean of Harvard Medical School
11/18/2009
The failure to replace the "fee-for-service" system in favor of capitated payments is cited as one of the main reasons. The other reasons are it does not resolve the issues of introducing competition in quality of care and cost, and continues the practices that disguise the true cost of care with a highly fragmented system of care. In a op-ed, Jeffrey Flier, Dean of the Harvard Medical School, gives a detailed account for the reason for his grading. A poorly drafted or incomplete law says Flier can make things worse, citing the example of the health care law in Massachusetts which is driving up costs, as it does not change the old dysfunctional system's key features such as "fee-for service," and instead tries to build a new system on broken foundations. Pearlstein in the Washington Post says the Obama health care law has addressed the "fee-for-service" problem, but this is really not the case, and Flier's reasoning may be the clue to the deeper problem for the Obama health care law.
Linked Articles
Steven Pearlstein: Eat your broccoli, Justice Scalia - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/01/2012
Health 'Debate' Deserves a Failing GradeWall Street Journal 11/18/2009
The risks to the U.S. financial system posed by concentrating 50% of deposits in just 5 banks
10/21/2009
The failure to make changes during the financial crisis of 2008 and the risks this poses in the future.
Linked Articles
Warren Stephens: How Big Banks Threaten Our Economy
Wall Street Journal 04/29/2012
BOE's King: Big Banks Should Get Broken UpWall Street Journal 10/21/2009
Intractable conflicts and a way out- the U.S., Europe, India and Pakistan in Afghanistan, and South Asians in Kashmir
09/23/2009
Linked Articles
Obama Is Considering Strategy Shift in Afghan War
New York Times 09/23/2009
Kashmir's troubles: Shaking the mountainsEconomist 01/01/2011
Health care spending as a critical part of the U.S. deficit problem and why it defies solution (3)
07/24/2009
Linked Articles
Obama's Health Expert Gets Political
Wall Street Journal 07/24/2009
A grim diagnosis for our ailing U.S. health care system - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/28/2011
U.S. president Obama, lobbyists and the 2010 Obama health care law
07/24/2009
The political process and the influence of lobbyists on Congress and the White House constrains the development of laws that control healthcare costs. Higher health care costs means less money for infrastructure development, education, research and development funding, and other priorities which build a future for Americans.
Linked Articles
E-Mails Highlight Extent of Obama's Deal With Industry on Health Care
New York Times 06/08/2012
Obama's Health Expert Gets PoliticalWall Street Journal 07/24/2009
Iran, N. Korea and President Obama's approach to nuclear weapons proliferation
07/05/2009
The views of Nunn, Perry, Shultz and Kissinger after meetings at the Hoover Institution on developing a new approach to nuclear proliferation after decades of relying on "mutually assured destruction", and the approach of President Obama. During the Cold War the U.S. and the Soviet Union faced each other, the situation in 2012 is very different with Iran, N. Korea, Pakistan, and the risks of terrorism.
Linked Articles
Youthful Ideals Shaped Obama Goal of Nuclear Disarmament
New York Times 07/05/2009
Deterrence in the Age of Nuclear ProliferationWall Street Journal 03/07/2011
Health care spending as a critical part of the U.S. deficit problem and why it defies solution (2)
06/17/2009
Linked Articles
Obama's Health Expert Gets Political
Wall Street Journal 07/24/2009
Obama's Health Plan Needs Spending Controls, CBO SaysWashington Post 06/17/2009
A drastic overhaul, a sweeping restructuring is needed of the "fee-for-service" system to fix healthcare, the Obama health "reforms" risk becoming cosmetic.
06/14/2009
Cowen and Samuelson point out that without this big restructuring, taking in the uninsured into the system will only magnify the costs further. It would simply continue a unaffordable system of healthcare, that also delivers poor overall quality of healthcare for a steep price tag.
Linked Articles
Something’s Got to Give in Medicare Spending
New York Times 06/14/2009
Robert J. Samuelson - Wrong Way on Health 'Reform'Washington Post 06/15/2009
IMF Conditionality that ignored people in developing countries and exacerbated crises and the new G20 focus on social help and stimulus spending.
03/31/2009
The new G20 mandate for social help and stimulus spending makes official the new policy direction for the IMF. It and marks the end of old style conditions that worsened the living conditions of people in countries that accepted IMF help, and exacerbated crises. Which is why the very word IMF scares people in S.Korea and in Pakistan and in so many other places.
Linked Articles
Steven Pearlstein - A Rare Triumph of Substance at the Summit
Washington Post 04/03/2009
An Empowered IMF Faces Pivotal TestWall Street Journal 03/31/2009
Job saving in Germany, "kurzarbeit" and the experience of piecemeal implementation in France by 2014
07/29/2010
Piecemeal implementation of "kuzarbeit" type job preservation efforts leads to failure in France with unemployment reaching 10.4% by the third quarter of 2014, according to Insee. Proper implementation would require changes in the legal system, and a change in the culture for business, trade unions.
Linked Articles
French Attempt at German-Style Labor Reform Flounders
Wall Street Journal 12/05/2014
The Price of Saving Jobs in GermanyBusinessWeek 07/29/2010
BP has a history of problems with quality systems and safety.
05/01/2010
Linked Articles
BP's Hayward Says Company Could Have Done More Disaster Preparation
Wall Street Journal 05/13/2010
Drilling Down: A Troubled Legacy in OilWall Street Journal 05/01/2010
Long standing reputations for quality and safety damaged by failures in quality systems at J&J McNeil and Toyota.
02/02/2010
Both Toyota and J&J Mcneil unit responded poorly and with long time lags to federal agencies that supervise safety for their products. Both companies took along time to investigate the consumer complaints, one for faulty brake pedal and the other for musty odor from Tylenol Arthritis caplet bottles.
Linked Articles
Maker of Tylenol Explains Actions Taken to Alleviate Musty Smell of Pills
New York Times 03/17/2010
Obama Administration Says It Is 'Not Finished With Toyota'Wall Street Journal 02/02/2010
Health care spending as a critical part of the U.S. deficit problem and why it defies solution (5)
11/18/2009
Linked Articles
Health 'Debate' Deserves a Failing Grade
Wall Street Journal 11/18/2009
A grim diagnosis for our ailing U.S. health care system - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/28/2011
Health care spending as a critical part of the U.S. deficit problem and why it defies solution (6)
11/12/2009
Linked Articles
10 Ways to Cut Health-Care Costs Right Now
BusinessWeek 11/12/2009
A grim diagnosis for our ailing U.S. health care system - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/28/2011
Bill Gates and David Rieff on the untapped resource for India and the global economy of India's children
10/11/2009
The challenge of getting hundreds of millions of rural Indian children into the development mainstream through better healthcare, pharmaceuticals, nutrition, education and agricultural improvement is the next major challenge for India and the global economy. It is a huge untapped resource for India and the global economy.
Linked Articles
Bill Gates: What I Learned in the Fight Against Polio
Wall Street Journal 11/10/2013
India’s Malnutrition DilemmaNew York Times 10/11/2009
Health care cost increases as a critical part of the U.S. deficit problem and why it defies solution (1)
07/24/2009
Linked Articles
Obama's Health Expert Gets Political
Wall Street Journal 07/24/2009
Four Deficit Myths and a Frightening FactWall Street Journal 01/19/2012
Health care spending as a critical part of the U.S. deficit problem and why it defies solution (4)
07/24/2009
Linked Articles
Obama's Health Expert Gets Political
Wall Street Journal 07/24/2009
ObamaCare's Reality DeficitWall Street Journal 01/08/2011
Peter Orszag and the struggle for a deficit-neutral health care plan (2)
07/24/2009
Linked Articles
Obama's Health Expert Gets Political
Wall Street Journal 07/24/2009
Beneath Budget Battle, a Health-Spending JuggernautWall Street Journal 12/17/2012
Peter Orszag and the struggle for a deficit neutral health care plan (1)
06/26/2009
Linked Articles
Obama's Health Expert Gets Political
Wall Street Journal 07/24/2009
Obama and Congress Clash on How to Pay for Health CareNew York Times 06/26/2009
The Congressional Budget Office's Elmendorf and Orszag on how the escalation in healthcare costs works havoc on the U.S. deficit (1)
06/17/2009
Linked Articles
Obama's Health Plan Needs Spending Controls, CBO Says
Washington Post 06/17/2009
Obama's Health Expert Gets PoliticalWall Street Journal 07/24/2009
The Economist cites IMF economist estimates that the public debt of the 10 largest industrialized countries will jump from 78% to 114% of GDP by 2014, leading to higher interest rates and inflation.
06/11/2009
The rising public debt and its unsustainability is what the future holds. For governments and decisionmakers there are very difficult choices, as fiscaly austerity and premature fiscal tightening or raising interest ratescan choke off a recovery. Raising taxes as happened earlier in Japan's lost decade also can choke off a recovery. Seriously tacklig health care costs and raising the retirement age, are much needed steps.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
The biggest bill in historyEconomist 06/11/2009
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