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Across Africa the situation is worsening for food security following the pandemic. More people are likely to die from food insecurity than from the pandemic. A succession of crises including drought, a locust swarm moving over vast parts east Africa into South Asia, and tons of crops rotting in the field after the lockdowns, are making the situation worse. With the lockdowns many informal economy workers are not able to earn a living, with no safety net this means they are going without food and slipping deeper into poverty. Remittances from overseas supported many people in the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and this has dropped by about 20-30%. As a result the World Food Program estimated in April that 265 million people, double that in 2019 will face world hunger- 3 in every 100 in the world. About 821 million will face food insecurity. The world food system is fragile with just none plant species accounting for two thirds the global crop, with threats of soil erosion, rising temperatures, extreme weather and disease. Wars, high inflation, political struggles, and conflicts make things worse. The hope comes from the fact that this time the largest countries China and India are emerging in 2020 very different from what they faced for most of the nineteenth century, with recurring famines and lack of access to food supplies. India now even allows farmers to export food to buyers in other countries directly. Getting money into the hands of farmers and people in food insecurity areas is one way for them to access existing food supplies all over the world. ...

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The WSJ's Laurence Norman talks to Yukiya Amano, head of the UN agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has the responsibility of verification and inspection of Iran's nuclear development and facilities. Amano describes the issues raised by a 2011 report which outlined 12 sets of concerns to which Iran has to explain, a condition included in the final nuclear agreement. Iran has to respond by mid-August, IAEA then responds, and does work in Sept and Oct, and submits its report by Dec. 2015. Yamano says he has to fill in all the missing pieces in this jigsaw puzzle to get a full picture of Iran's nuclear development. Iran has denied access to military sites and Mr. Amano couldn't say if he has access to the Parchin military site. A concession that was made in the agreement is the long interval of three weeks before access to a particular site that arouses suspicions-the agreement gives Iran the right to appeal an IAEA request to visit such a site to a special commission. The U.S. and its European allies have a majority on the commission yet three weeks are allowed in which Iran could move material to some other location. For critics the question will be why such a concession was needed if Iran truly has decided not to develop nuclear weapons technologies. The U.S. president's response at a news conference on July 15, 2015, was that with the laws of physics the U.S. monitoring tools would detect nuclear activity at that site. The agreement also gives Iran an earlier than planned lifting of a ban on sales of arms and missiles and missile parts if the IAEA says Iran's nuclear activities are peaceful. Iran could conceivably wait till the ban is lifted and its economy in a much stronger position to withstand any future limited sanctions to pursue nuclear weapons development. This would have delayed development for a few years during which time the hope is that Iran has changed into a more peaceful nation pursuing economic development in its region, yet even if this is the case as as happened with India and Pakistan it could still pursue nuclear weapons development. The alternative is a status quo till a better agreement is reached with the leverage of tight economic sanctions and continuing dialogue during which time Iran continues to get closer to a nuclear weapon, or the use of force to prevent this. Iran added the arms embargo issue during the last weeks of the negotiation in June, a controversial move on Iran's part, as this may have complicated the picture with ballistic missiles technology exports to Iran approved after 8 years in the final agreement, compared to the agreement reached in April 2015 which made no mention of the lifting of the arms embargo. Iran played on the notion that if Zarif returned to Iran without an agreement hardliners including Khamanei would veto any agreement, yet this could just be the Iranian negotiating strategy. U.S. president Obama stated at the July 15, 2015 news conference that it would be hard to hold sanctions for longer. Critics might argue that China was already benefitting from the small easing of sanctions by increasing Iranian oil imports by 30% in 2014, and would have less incentive to withdraw from sanctions, as it is dependent on the U.S. and the EU, major markets for its exports and access to technologies. A WSJ/NBC poll in July shows almost half of the people polled in the U.S. saying they do not know enough to express an opinion, a steady 36% support an agreement, showing that the public has not been educated and taken along during the different steps in the largely secret negotiations....

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Without the patience and skills of S. Jaishankar peace at the Indian border with China could not have been restored in 2022. Here he describes the challenge of border incursions when he still called on his counterpart Wang Yi and maintained friendly communications, asking Yi not to let China complicate matters so that solutions could be found and things did not deteriorate further. At the time of tense Ukraine dispute in Europe, Jaishankar who was earlier the Indian ambassador to China, navigated this period of tension with China using his knowledge of China and how best to continue the diplomatic communications.  Less well known is the work put in by Jaishakar to bring citizen to citizen contact between Indians and Chinese by setting up such intercultural and educational programs in several Chinese cities as Ambassador to India. Jaishankar had the foresight to know that this would be important for the future. Yet these contacts are only a small fraction of the potential contacts between India and China on a citizen to citizen direct basis that are needed. Never is that more true than today with the wars in Europe, and the need for peaceful development in Asia. China is still a middle income country and India modernizing to become a middle income country. Both Europe and the US are far ahead in development than China and India. Jaishankar was appointed the Foreign Secretary of India in 2015 and in 2019 Foreign Minister of India in the Modi administration. He was the longest serving Ambassador to China for about 5 years in 2009-2013. He is unique because of his having been a senior diplomat to China, Japan, Singapore and the US, and speaks Japanese and Chinese. ...

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Macron says he will visit China soon, and China can play a mediating role in Ukraine to prevent ground offensives in January and February 2023- to give peace talks a chance.

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Local media reports in China say president Xi Jinping has lost some credibility in his efforts to manage the stock market, with the prevailing sentiment that all government decisions require his approval, and the Tinajin warehouse explosion. One of the errors insiders in the Party say was to bring decisions normally under the prime minister Li Keqiang, such as decisions related to economic policy making and financial markets, under committees headed by Xi Jinping. As a result the perception that a good economic team was running the economy has been lost. Experts say the current leadership faces increasing pressure after events in July and August 2015, with sharp slowdown and efforts to use stock markets to reduce debt of state owned companies.

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Raghuram Rajan interviewed by BW's Peter Coy. Rajan was prescient in questioning the Greenspan Fed's policies and the risks posed by the excessive leveraging in the financial system at the 2005 Jackson Hole conference. After the excessive monetary easing by the Bernanke Federal Reserve, Rajan questions the wisdom of keeping interest rates too low for too long. He joins John Taylor, George W. Bush presidential advisor, and Allan Meltzer of Carnegie-Mellon in making this point. Rajan was the chief economist at the IMF from 2003 to 2006. He is the author of a 2010 book, Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures still Threaten the World Economy. The fault lines he describes are rising inequality in the US and the dependence of the US on loans from China.

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After the Phase 1 trade deal with China led to cancellation of new tariffs on computers, mobile phones and the remaining products imported from China, tariffs are still in place on $370 billion of imports from China. President Trump says China agreed to import $32 billion of agricultural goods, with the figures reaching $50 billion in 2020. The prior high was $26 billion in 2012. This comes as a big relief for the agricultural farm sector which had 24% more bankruptcies in 2019. Farmers are now more likely to vote for president Trump as they did in the last election. In addition China agreed to buy $200 billion more of American goods over the next 2 years. This combined with the USMCA agreement to replace NAFTA, for North American trade, is good news for president Trump and for the U.S. economy for 2% annual growth. The S&P stock index went up by 29% in 2019. The big concession by China is its agreement to agree to penalties if it does not keep up its part of the bargain.  Intellectual property protection remains a challenge and Mr. Trump may have decided to take a tactical success and shore up his base of farmers and small business people before taking up these issues in the future. China for its part may have decided to make a tactical move of its own as it has nothing to lose in importing more farm products from the U.S. in exchange for being able to continue to make the computers, iPhones and tech products it manufactures, just like before. China has not conceded much in terms of its goals set  in "Made in China 2025." Both sides are taking a much needed pause to consolidate their positions, as the fundamental differences remain to be tackled. Huawei and Chinese technology issue remains as before with the U.S. wary of China's technological gains in 5G telecom equipment and keen on building and protecting America's technological advantage in future trade relations. ...

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China's zero Covid strategy is being tested with a huge lockdown in Shanghai in March 2022. The price of the zero Covid policy is significant for China's economy and people.

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In an overwhelming victory in Burma's 2015 general election Aung San Suu Kyi's party wins 80% of the vote, with the military backed party winning only 41 seats of 491 seats in parliament. The National League for Democracy wins 397 seats. Both sides underestimated their strength. Suu Kyi supporters estimated they would get 60% of the vote, and the military expected to win about 130 seats. The 1990 elections and Suu Kyi's victory were annulled by the military. This time Suu Kyi will appoint the president, as she is banned from taking office under the military drafted constitution. It has taken 25 years for the change in Burma. China and India supported the military rulers in Burma, while the U.S. and UK consistently opposed the military. India a regional democracy put regional considerations ahead of democratic process, showing how even democratic governments failed to respond, especially when the military cracked down on Buddhist temples in 2007. Mrs Bush, Hillary Clinton, and other Americans showed strong support for Suu Kyi throughout her house arrest following the 1990 election. Hillary Clinton visited Myanmar as U.S. Secretary of State in 2011 to show her support for Suu Kyi, which may have set the process in motion for the 2015 free election in Burma. ...

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The view from Asian officials and scholars that it was not the savings glut that originated in Asia that caused the economic crisis in the U.S. The idea of a"savings glut" that caused low rates for along time and set up conditions for a housing bubble was presented by Ben Bernanke in 2005 before he was governor of the Fed. It was considered acontributing factor in the crisis. Mr Panitchpakdi, head of the UN Confreence on Trade and Development says that Asians did not borrow heavily for consumption and Americans did. Consumption levels he says are normal in Asia and average 40% of GDP. Household consumption in China is 36% but thats because growth in investment and exports has been very strong, npot because consumption has been weak. Speaking at the same conference Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan sais Chinese consumption needs to rise and saving rate fall but micro factors like regulation played an overwhelming part. Zhou says the increase in the savings rate in recent years comes not from households but from corporate savings as retained profits. Lawrence Lau, another economist, says China's trade surplus was at 2% for many years till 2005 when it jumped to 5% of GDP. ...

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Mette Fredericksen, Social Democratic party prime minister of Denmark has made it very clear that she believes who is hurt most by migrant families coming to Europe is the working class. Years of austerity policies and other policies that hurt working class families that struggled with the cost of living and loss of jobs shifted overseas were pushed by parties that were elected for opposing such migrants and migrant friendly policies.   Under Merkel there was with a migrant friendly policy the neglect of infrastructure, neglect of childcare and social goals to help working class families, and neglect of the needed action to tackle climate change. Only in the last 2 years of her administration did Merkel realize that this policy was misconceived and reversed it leading to a dramatic decline in such migrants coming to Germany. Policies were shifted to work with African countries to promote development and security, so that the conditions such as wars and economic crises could be prevented and managed in Africa. Countries such as China and India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, are living proof that development works and what is needed is not working class in Europe paying a price for failed policies in Africa but tackling the situation in Africa and parts of Asia with the right kind of development assistance where the migrants originate.  Mette Fredericksen was one of the first European leaders to lead a large delegation of Danish business and logistics leaders from companies such as Maersk that visited India in 2021, with the goal of expanding trade and business with India. Especially in upgrading logistics for a country of 1.2 billion that is promoting Made in India for the world. This is the kind of collaborative action that Fredericksen is taking in the international sphere that is helping world progress during the pandemic.   ...

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Hardeep Puri writes in the Indian Express that one of the biggest problems in development in India was that government programs for development just kept getting delayed, and there were leakages of funds that could never be tracked. It is the sign of a developing country that it remain perpetually a developing country when it does not find a way to overcome this situation. Most of Asia, Japan, South Korea, China has found a way out, and it is a sign of character in a country and its administration that real implementation takes place to transform a developing country into a modern country organizing and combining the inputs of land, capital, technology and human resources. Just one example is the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana to build housing in India's cities to promote quality of living. In the last 7 years Puri writes in the Indian Express that 11.2 million houses were sanctioned, 4.9 million built and the rest to be built by March 2022. Compared to 1.2 million in the prior 10 years. To do this investment jumped by about 10 times. In the US infrastructure was neglected in the last 2 decades. In India urban infrastructure was delayed by never ending delays and leakages of funds. Across a range of projects from Metro urban transport to rail, bridges and road, infrastructure was slow and wobbly in India for most of the decades since 1947. The Smart Cities Mission is being financed with an investment planned of Rupees 2 trillion or over $200 billion to change the urban landscape with people centred priorities. As Puri writes silently, non performers are being weeded out, loopholes plugged, targets set, in scrutiny and monitoring of projects all the way to the prime minister in a way that has never happened before. There is relentless focus on monitoring the missions, problems to overcome, targets and dates of completion. Bringing to life a new national character and spirit for India during the pandemic. ...

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A 50 foot marble statue was placed at the canopy near India Gate of King George V in 1936, by Edwin Lutyens, in an irony of history only 11 years before independent India emerged out of the British Empire in India. It was not removed till 1968 and no decision was made on what should replace it until 2022. Today the statue of Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose now stands at that place, Bose led the Indian Army's fight for independence from territory freed by the Japanese after Gandhi adopted Quit India in 1942 and most of the Indian leaders were arrested and Netaji escaped to East Asia. Part of the reason Netaji and patriots who fought to free India through means other than non violent protest were not seen as having made significant contribution was the sense that the Japanese invasion of China had shown it was another colonial power. However without the Japanese weakening British rule in Asian countries the British may have continued their rule in India. After the Japanese had proved the British, Dutch and French empires could be removed from Asia, the process that began with Naoroji, Tilak and Gokhale, and continued by Gandhi, Bose, Nehru and  Patel working together  seemed inevitably headed for success. Seen in this way a genuine understanding of Hind Swaraj can be gained. Mohandas Gandhi points this out in Hind Swaraj by saying that Gokhale was the true leader of independent India. In the true sense of genuine struggle the leaders and unknown soldiers who were jailed in the Andaman islands made significant contributions including Tilak. The struggle for Hind Swaraj was done by people who took the largest risks, and who weighed the future carefully. And this includes Gandhi and Bose,Tilak and Gokhale, and most of all the unknown people who were at the Salt March and Quit India movements.   ...

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The Guardian shows pictures in both black and white and in color from the last 50 years of US president Joe Biden. The first picture is a black and white picture from 20 November 1972 showing him cutting his 30th birthday cake with his wife Nelia, sons Beau, and Hunter. He is shown taking the oath of office for the Senate as he turned 30 the youngest senator and now the oldest former senator to be president. On the Metroliner Amtrak in 1988. He spent decades riding Amtrak to Washington D.C. He campaigned with Jill Biden for president in 1988. Not till the extraordinary situation of the pandemic in 2020 did Americans who largely ignored him give him the opportunity to lead- and at what a time when the Nation desperately needed his vision and his leadership through the largest vaccination program in history with the exception of that in India. And following this with his skills in Congress to get the legislation passed with Republicans for trillions of dollars to go into aiding families recover, and the economy to recover, investing in chips and science, and in infrastructure in ways that have happened only three times in American history, first in the early days of rail transforming a largely agricultural country during Lincoln and Grant's years as president in 1860's and 1870's, and again during the TR, Woodrow Wilson years in the 1900, 1910 period, and in the period under FDR, Truman and Ike 1940's, 1950's. No other country recovered better and stronger, and yet because of the lingering effects of the pandemic with 1 million dead from the Covid virus, and increases in the cost of living even as inflation was brought down from 9% to 3% for reasons stemming from unwise decision of American business to concentrate the supply chain in China, from housing and automobile price increases, the Nation did not immediately grasp the sheer magnitude of what had been achieved. ...

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India is becoming a major destination for foreign investment in manufacturing in many industries. The youth population 15-24 now exceeds that of China. Over the period 2015-2019 the number of youth 15-24 will increase to be close to 250 million in India in 2019, compared to a rapidly declining youth population in China of little over 150 million in 2019, according to the International Labor Organization. China's one child policy, investigation of multinationals business practices, and increasing wages in manufacturing, are reducing its attractiveness for foreign investors. Other destinations such as Russia are less attractive because of the economic crisis after falling oil prices. India also benefits from the large drop in oil prices to help reduce its chronic deficit and lower inflation- significant dividends at a critical time. Raghuram Rajan, head of the central bank, estimates the gain from the drop in oil prices at about $50 billion. Indonesia also benefits from the same trends. Prime minister Modi is reducing the bureaucratic structures and red tape that are a legacy of the Congress governments since independence in 1947, creating a new climate for business investment. ...

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DJT 1.0 was led on the tariffs policy by USTR Robert Lighthizer, who had experience negotiating with the Japanese negotiators in the Reagan era. He is today respected by  Republicans, is seen in an important role in economic policy and to prepare the tariff policy actions of the new DJT administration. Lighthizer prefers to get Congress to take action with legislation. He also believes that domestic manufacturing will make gains with new and higher tariffs on Chinese imports. Lighthizer policy is falsely compared with Hoover Tariffs Act of 1930 when world trade was 9% of world GDP, today it is 63% of world GDP, and where under Hoover in 1930 the tariffs were across the board all countries 20,000 goods. Under Lighthizer on specific products where dumping is happening -steel, aluminium, autos, with Japan in 1960-70 or China 2000-2020 targeting American industries + technologies for takeover. And falsely when it comes to raising costs to each American family on average by $4000 a year by economists. The conventional view for business for 2000-2016 through Bush and Obama favoring free trade did not take into account the unusual experience of China which entered WTO in 1990, then expanded in a way unprecedented in history at 10-12% growth rates for 15 years destroying American manufacturing with dumping, having support of outshoring by companies in the US, and not giving reciprocal treatment for exports from the US to China. China also had unrestricted access to US technologies in this type of trade. Lighthizer's approach was to specifically address this problem not a general across the board tariffs on all goods (20,000 goods) on all countries as with the Hoover Tariffs Act in 1930. Lighthizer's approach adopted by DJT called for reciprocal trade response with China as the US had already done with Japan, not unilateral across the board tariffs, and when world trade had advanced to about zero tariff rates. And falsely compared to Hoover 1930 Act because under Hoover tariffs were 29-40%. raised to 60% when world trade was small, was 9% of GDP. The Biden administration has tacitly agreed with Lighthizer's vision by not reversing DJT tariffs. A new higher tariff will probably be selective based on the industry, country and what goals the US has set under the new administration for that industry. Some of the tariffs revenue may also be used for tax cuts. ...

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China shifts its policy to allow 3 children per family after it sees the percentage of people in the population over 60 rising. This WSJ report show that the policy shift is being followed by changes in policies related to education with more equitable educational resources and reduced expenditures for education for families. Policies that were seen as making families hesitant to have more children.  Changes of the Mao era policy of one child, one family, are very recent. Not till 2013 has this policy changed, since its implementation after the Communist Party took over mainland China in 1949. In 2013 the government allowed families to have 2 children if one of the parents was an only child, and two years later in 2015 the policy was changed to allow 2 children per family. Only half of Chinese couples are willing to have 2 children, according to a study by the state backed All China Women's Federation. A once in a decade census shows 12 million babies born in China in 2020. In 2016 there were 17.9 million births. China's leaders noticed a change in the census for people over 60 as a percentage of the population, which was growing much faster than imagined from 13.3% in 2010 to 18.7% in 2020.  The perception of experts and Chinese couples in their thirties shows that the policy is seen as not enough to convince young couples to have another child. Typical is the situation of one parent cited in this report, a Beijing father of two. He says the policy has changed but it does not mean that he would have another child. He says it takes a lot of money and energy to take care of another child. It also affects the standard of living and education of the two children as he has already moved to a new 2 bedroom apartment to be near top schools in the Chinese capital. Another facet of this development is women in China postponing children to pursue their careers. Government policy is now to raise the retirement age with fewer people of working age to support the senior population. The percentage of the population of working age 15 to 59 years dropped from 70% in 2010 to 63% in 2020. Fewer people for working at Chinese factories and manufacturing. China's retirement age is now 60 for men and 50 for women, giving the government room to do this by bringing it up to western levels that are much higher in the US and Europe.   ...

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A slight shift in American opinion favoring a deal with Iran is shown in a WSJ/NBC poll in July 2015 compared to the poll in April 2015. Support for reaching a nuclear deal with Iran remains stable at 36% in both polls, the opposed drops by 6 percentage points to 17% from 23%, and the percentage of people who say they do not know enough to formulate an opinion goes up to 46% from 40%. The intricacies of a nuclear technology deal and the sites involved lead to a high percentage of don't know enough to give an opinion. Factors hindering a deal include inspection of military sites, and Iranian intentions. Factors favoring reaching a deal now is the risk that this would mean Iran would go back into isolation and the opportunity to work with moderates might be lost. The Rouhani administration was an effort by voters to elect a government that could ease or remove sanctions to improve the economy and living conditions- its failure would lead to Iran losing an opportunity to open up to the world. The pressure from the U.S. Congress and Israel served to push for a verifiable and effective agreement to control development of nuclear technology for weapons systems. Behavioural factors involved are the very young population in Iran which has no memories about the period before the revolution in 1979- 70% of the population of 74 million are people under the age of 35. This group is eager for ties to the outside and could change Iran's outlook and policies int the future towards moderation. Risks in not reaching a deal also include the possibility of the Saudis developing nuclear technology and nuclear proliferation. Winners from a deal because of the flow of Iranian oil to world markets and a period of extended low oil prices are the U.S., Europe, China and India. Germany gains new markets to replace the growth in the Russian market after sanctions. Lifting of an arms embargo, an added risk in the last days of the talks, would be mitigated by making the lifting of that embargo very gradual....

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Russians vote in 2021 parliamentary elections. With 30% of votes cast the United Russia party of Mr. Putin wins 45% of votes cast, followed by the Communist party of the Russian Federation with 22%, and the Liberal Democratic party getting 8%. Russia has mixed voting system with half the seats directly elected from party lists, and the other half assigned to individual candidates. United Russia had 334 seats out of total 450 seats in the outgoing parliament. Putin will need over 300 seats in the new parliament to get the two thirds majority to enact changes to the constitution. Putin needs this to extend his current term which ends in 2024.  Putin draws most of his support from the older part of the population that has seen the hardships imposed following the collapse of Communism around 1990. This led to collapse of the ruble currency, increase in poverty, an effort by oligarchs to capture state enterprises, and a chaotic period for law and order. Shockingly during that period even life spans of Russians declined as reported in the WSJ. Liberals who supported the shift to democracy had not anticipated all the ill effects of introducing capitalist free market systems in such a sudden and free fall way. Such sudden shifts to free markets are now better understood and seen as the wrong way, as western capital markets fail without inbuilt protections, safety net for workers and retired people, and are subject to serious distortions if no vigilant authority exists. This is in reality not a free market but a market captured by the few, in the interests of the few. Once this was clear retired people, pensioners, military, law enforcement, and liberals realizing what had happened shifted support to United Russia founded by Mr. Putin. Mr. Putin faces the typical situation faced by incumbents over long periods where there is a sense of the need for change. Yet the pandemic and other economic crises that could happen in the event of mismanaged economy are never really too distant for countries such as Russia, China, India that are developed but yet have not the strong industrial base of US, Germany, France. Such economic crises including the ruble currency and Russian energy companies were better managed under Putin than under the chaotic period following the collapse of communism and the introduction of so called "free markets" that were anything but. During the recentfree fall in oil prices Putin was able to manage a transition period with the help of president Trump who negotiated a price for oil with the Saudis to protect US shale oil workers and companies, as well as Russian workers and oil companies. As a result Russians particularly young people look for alternative places to vote for opposition parties such as Liberals, Communist party, and other parties. But the majority of Russians including those working for state energy and other state companies tend to stay with Putin's choices for state, regional and federal administration and for parliament. Nationalist spirit also provides additional support as Putin has restored Russia's status as one of the important nations in the world. Some missteps such as interference in US elections have led to a loss of some of this international influence, yet even president Biden understands the situation in Russia and is willing to work with Putin with new rules of conduct Under the Russian system about 70% of the laws are not made by parliament but are done by the government and the administration of the president and then go through parliament. In addition to parliamentary vote there are 6 governor races and three races for heads of regional republics. ...

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Emmanuel Macron graduated from Sciences Po University in 2004 with a degree in public affairs. He joins the Finance Ministry as an inspector and then buys himself out of government service contract by 2008 to join a private bank. He arranges an acquisition from Nestle and other business deals during this period. In 2012 he is appointed as deputy secretary general for the president's office after Francois Hollande a socialist is elected to the presidency. In 2014 he is offered the position of Minister of Industry and Digital Affairs in the second Manuel Valls government. He makes some changes to French government but opposes the wealth tax or tax on business, and is generally pro-business, though he acts as a member of the Socialist party.  He uses this period to build momentum for his own run for the presidency as support for Hollande falters having lost support from his working class base with Macron and Valls inspired changes.  Macron finally announces he will run for the presidency forming his own En Marche movement which he finances with his own fund raising. Throughout this period right up to the election in 2017 Macron has not run for public office. When he wins the presidency in that year he lacks the experience needed as the youngest president in French history at the age of 39. Like another young president Obama he handles his public image with the media for his En Marche movement promising to unblock France. This public image and his lack of experience makes him impervious to the social changes going on in France that lead to the yellow vest protests in 2018. This is a period when there are changes in the midwest as workers in Michigan and other midwestern states turn away from Hillary Clinton and Obama.  French workers are in the position of workers in the US with the decline of manufacturing, much of it shifted with the supply chain to China and Japan, and the gap opening between rural and urban tech educated areas. Macron follows Obama's quick rise from Senator to run for president yet lacks experience, and lacks sufficient grasp of the social changes with loss of manufacturing, the wide gaps between rural and urban tech educated people, conditions in the rural and farming areas. Macron survives this period, is reelected in 2022 with the help of socialist Melenchon voters. He says he will govern differently, less distant from average Frenchmen, but his instincts are to push for pension reform. At a time of cost of living crisis, and when the French budget office says the change in pension from 62 to 64 was not critical at the present time when inflation was hitting the public after the pandemic. Macron does this by Article 49 in the way he has done under the Manuel Valls government, by executive action alone. This time he faces a no confidence motion in parliament in March 2023 following some of the largest protests France has seen in years, with two thirds of the French according to FR24 opposing the change in pension law. Women see this as coming at a time when age discrimination hurts their chances of earning a living after 50 years of age.  Age discrimination is widespread in France, in a way it is not in Germany, say reports in the NYT. And with the cost of living crisis acts as a major hurdle for the average French person, if pensions are delayed without addressing these cultural issues in France. The result is that the protests have substance and Macron is seen as not sensitive to this at a time when he lacks a majority in parliament. ...

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The shift from non-conventional polluting single cylinder engine contraptions used by poorer Chinese called "Inkfish" to conventional fuel efficient engines will reduce oil consumption in China even as more cars are on the road. This explains the paradox of Chinese vehicle sales being up by 77% year over year in the first quarter of 2010, and still gasoline demand went up by only 3%. Kack Perkowski, founder of Chinese auto-parts manufacturer Asimco Technologies, says the shift from the low tech "inkfish" type vehicles to fuel efficient small cars popular with the Chinese and encouraged by government policies to reduce oil consumption is a big factor in this development. Perkowski says 50 million engines are manufactured in China each year and if you subtract the 13.6 million cars, trucks and buses sold in China last year, another 36 million low tech highly fuel inefficient engines including "inkfish" engines were sold. China's car buyers are very price conscious and prefer smaller cars. Smaller cars are also well suited to the crowded roads in the coastal cities. And the Chinese government wants to keep oil consumption down so it is pushing buyers in the direction of smaller engines with tax breaks. The Chinese governmet is expected to announce subsidies for plug-in hybrids worth about one third of the sticker price. The motives are environmental and energy security related, but also have the intent of enabling China's car manufacturers to gain experience and leadership in newer electric car technologies. Bottom line: some experts including Deutsche Bank's Sankey view China's oil demand growing much slower, at about 2.6% a year over the next 15 years. This would mean oil demand tapering off at 13-14 million barrels of oil per day by 2025, much higher than the 9.1 million bpd in 2010, but growth curbed by fuel efficient engines and increasing fuel efficency of the Chinese vehicle population....

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The declining prospects for construction and heavy equipment manufacturers in the Chinese market with the slowdown in growth in China. This affects Caterpillar Inc, Volvo AB and Komatsu Ltd. Between 2008 to 2010 investments in machinery, construction projects and other types of fixed assets went up by 61% to $4.36 trillion. China's domestic manufacturers Sany Heavy Industry Co. and Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co. also expanded during this period. Now analysts see demand in China as having collapsed compared to the earlier period. Monthly sales of hydraulic excavators for July 2012 declined by 23% to 5886 units, and first half sales were down by 38%, according to machinery trade association. China's stimulus spending also contributed to the surge. The new stimulus planned for 2013 is more selective in investments and much smaller because of overcapacity and overbuilding in many sectors. Some investments such as John Deere's new plant under construction in China and two in Brazil also under construction, will move forward at a slower pace and impact margins. Cummins CEO, Linebarger sees the situation continuing throught he second half of 2012 and recovering gradually in 2013. The slowdown is not deterring construction machinery equipment manufacturers. Caterpillar CEO, Doug Oberhelman, sees demand accelerating after the lull and is slowing its plan to double workforce in China to 11,000, and quadruple excavator production by 2015, but not idling assembly plants so that he has inventory on hand for a recovery. Exports of made in China excavators is also an option, and exports increased 115% in July 2012, over the prior year. But this may be based on manufacturers belief that the drop in demand in 2008 and recovery in 2010 will recur, which may only result in higher inventories as the current stimulus is much smaller and selective. The Chinese government plans to follow the DRC/ World Bank Report and is moving away from the large role of state run firms in the economy....

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The concerns over far right parties expelling immigrants in states such as Thuringia has caused a wave of protests across Germany including Berlin and other cities in January 2024. It is also impacting the East where anti immigrant sentiment is based. Germany has a shortage of workers in parts of Germany that formed the Federal Republic before reunification- immigrants fill these gaps. The East has not been the success story it was supposed to be because reunification of the Federal Republic and the GDR (Communist East Germany around Leipzig and East Berlin) led to a flight of young people to the western parts for jobs and opportunities. Leading to a mostly older and retired population in the east -leaving it struggling and feeling unwanted. This is the background of the anti immigrant sentiment in the east where there are far fewer immigrants than in the western and central regions. Resentment about being ignored as settled around the immigrant issue in the east even as Germany has benefitted through some of the middle class educated immigrants from Turkey and from Ukraine, and Syria. Similar resentment has taken place in parts of England in the north which led to fear of immigrants being used by Tories party leading to Brexit. In a similar way in France in the north, and in the US with neglect of rural areas and factory communities in the east and midwest. The communities that were left out that have made choices with far right as in Britain have ended up with leaders from immigrant families that have accomplished little or much in the reverse direction for the English people in the north. The leaders of Germany, Britain, the US, the Nordic countries such as Denmark, and gradually in France have learned that it is right to go back to their roots, that they had forgotten where they came from and are now fighting for the dignity of workers (Schulz), standing in picket lines for the autoworkers (Biden), and following the Biden example in the UK (Starmer). With it comes the realization that this started with the Thatcher and Reagan era that created the conditions and culture that were repeatedly embraced by Democrats in the US, Labor in Britain and Social Democrats in Germany alike leading to financial crises and levels of inequality and lack of educational opportunity not seen since the Great Depression. With it by 2024 comes the unwinding of the economics and culture of the Reagan era. Even in China and India the shift is away from that culture as the economies of these countries with half of humanity are shifted to serve a broad base and to include rural, agricultural and other parts of the population. It shows that the educated parts of the population in these countries have the ability to create the conditions that in Lincoln's words are for the people, by the people, of the people, for a brighter future, if only they will try hard enough for their children's and grand children's sake.  ...

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Internet penetration in India is increasing rapidly. India had 71 million internet users in 2009 by one estimate. Current estimates are of 80-100 million internet users. India's internet penetration as percentage of population of 5% is low compared to China which is at 28.9%, Brazil at 39.2%, and Mexico at 28.3%, according to figures from the International Telecommunication Union. Analysts expect the launch of third generation broadband networks will help increase internet use in India. One study done by investment bank Caris & Co. shows internet use growing to 180-200 million users by 2015. Most of the major internet sites are in news, job-search or match-making. Internet retail is just beginning to grow with online purchases of $1.4 billion in 2010 going up to $5 billion in 2012.

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There is cramped space for renters and limited supply of housing space per capita in Shanghai, China. After a decade of hyper building China still lacks affordable housing space. The residential space per capita in Shanghai is only 183 square feet or 17 square metres per person- about the size of a small room. And estimates by GK Dragonomics Research show one third of China's 225 million households lack kitchens and plumbing. At the same time housing is increasingly unaffordable for the middle class. Government restrictions on price increases reflect growing concern with the fact that the average Shanghai residential home sold for about $276,000 in 2011, even though annual per capita income in Shanghai is about $13,000. Prices for homes in Shanghai increased 2.6 times in 5 years, according to the Shanghai Urban Real Estate Surveyors Company. With the slowdown in construction developers are working through inventories, and more homes were sold than built in 2012, compared to about 1.5 units built for every unit sold in 2011. ...