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American manufacturers are importing more of the parts that go into each product. According to Susan Houseman, a senior economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute in Kalamazoo, Michigan, the imported portion for these parts is up to 25% from 17%. Even the Bureau of Economic Analysis figure of the share of GDP coming from manufacturing is overstated, says Houseman. That figure was 11.2% for 2009, but is closer to 10.5% if all the imported components are included instead of being counted as domestically made. This is down from 14.2% ten years ago, and about 30% in the 1950's. There is deep concern that the manufacturing decline has weakened America. Houseman says that one cannot separate manufacturing from innovation, and she asks if America can continue to be strong in R&D with a shrunken manufacturing base. James Jordan of the Interstate Maglev project, says Maglev- which uses special magnets to levitate and propel high-speed trains- was invented in the United States. Today equipment for that technology is manufactured and used in Japan, and innovation in high speed trains is taking place in Japan and Germany. The decline in manufacturing is shockingly large. From 1979 employment in manufacturing went down by 8.1 million to 11.6 million, with the largest drop occurring in the last ten years. With it America is losing something significant- all the knowhow and skills that go into making things. Today the airplane wings for several Boeing airliners are made in Japan and shipped here. In a not too distant past these wings would have been built here, and workers with the knowhow and skills for these critical components were part of Boeing's workforce....

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Tyler Cowan says slower growth in India is a troubling sign in 2012, and as significant if not more than the eurozone crisis. A less mentioned and major problem is the low productivity in agriculture, and he points to Japan, Taiwan, and S. Korea where major increases in agricultural productivity preceded successful industrialization. With growing population and continued growth India will be one of the largest economies in the world. The other major problem is shortages of energy supplies and the inability of state owned company, Coal India, to upgrade technology and increase output.

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Porter cites a report by Kai Daniel Schmid and Ulrike Stein of the Macroeconomic Policy Institute in Dusseldorf. The report shows the top 10% of Germans having 26% of the country's income before taxes and transfers in 1991. This increased to 31% by 2010. For the same period of about 20 years the bottom half of the population took in 17% in 2010 dropping by 5% from 22%. The growing income inequality in Germany is comparable to what has happened in the U.S. over this period.

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The 4.7 billion euro loss at German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp for the fiscal year ending in Sept. 2012. The loss stems mainly from management's bet on a large project to make steel slabs in Brazil and ship it to a plant in the U.S. state of Alabama for finished product of high-grade sheets. The project suffered delays and by the time the Brazilian plant was running in 2010, the strength of the real Brazil's currency and higher wage costs had affected the economics of the plan. Steel demand also slowed in the U.S. The plants which required an investment of 12 billion euros now have a book value of 3.9 billion euros. Thyssen bet too much on one project and it failed. Three management board members who had oversight over the compliance, steel and building technology areas had their contracts terminated, and a new CEO was appointed in 2011. Heinrich Hiesinger, a manager from Siemens AG is the new CEO. ThyssenKrupp's image has been sullied by reports of price fixing of rail tracks and scandals involving the communications head for foreign railroad contracts. Hiesinger says "until recently there has been an understanding of leadership in which old-boy networks and blind loyalty were often more important than the success of the company." He faces a difficult challenge of changing the corporate culture and developing a new strategy. His plans are to turn ThyssenKrupp into a high-tech engineering business by selling the steel mills in Brazil and Alabama, and the stainless steel division to Finiish company Outokumpu Oyj. This will shrink steel from 41% of sales to 30%. To implement this strategy Hiesinger needs a capital increase. This runs into problems as the Krupps Foundation headed by Berthold Beitz, which controls 25% of the stock, does not want to see its influence diluted. Other problems include the role of Gerhard Cromme, head of the supervisory board, which failed in oversight over the failed project. Cromme is also the head of the supervisory board at Siemens AG. At Siemens he helped a company cleanup after a bribery scandal and brought in new management. He also headed the Cromme Commission on corporate governance code for German business, which makes the current corruption allegations embarrassing for Cromme....

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The yuan is up 5.5% since the peg to the dollar ended in 2010, reaching 6.469 to the dollar. But this is not helping the U.S. trade deficit. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the price of imports from China are up 2.8% in May over the same month prior year. And the trade surplus for China in the first four months of 2011 is higher than the same period in 2010. What is happening? The improvements in productivity of Chinese manufacturers and the acceptance of lower margins is reducing the effects on trade balance of a small appreciation of the yuan, so that only a fraction of that appreciation is showing up in higher prices for Chinese goods. Also significant is that the yuan's small appreciation against the dollar is not enough to make up for the dollar's fall against other currencies. The yuan is down 8.3% against the euro and has actually declined 3.7% on a trade weighted basis in the last year.

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Within minutes of the SNB's decision to lift the cap on the euro the Swiss Franc surged 30% against the euro and 18% against the dollar. FXCM, retail currency broker, suffered severe losses and the company needed a $300 million investment from Leucadia National Corp. to survive. Citigroup and Deutsche Bank AG each had losses of $150 million. Hedge Funds Discovery and Comac also suffered losses. FXCM losses stem from use by FXCM clients of borrowed money, along with higher leverage the company also has lower margin requirements. Interestingly FXCM fought CFTC efforts under Dodd-Frank legislation to limit leverage to 10 to 1- saying "it would have a devastating impact and drive it overseas." The limit finally set at 50 to 1, meant that an investor could borrow $50 for every dollar he put in of his own. The leverage meant large losses for inexperienced investors and threatened the survival of FXCM in a matter of minutes.

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Joe Kaeser, CEO of Siemens AG, meets Russian president Putin in Moscow on March 26, 2014. He also had talks with Gazprom chief, Alexei Miller. Siemen's has invested 800 million dollars in Russia in the last 2 years. Siemens sales in Russia are 2.17 billion euros, 2.9% of the company's revenue. Germany's total trade with Russia is 56.3 billion euros for 2012. Eckhard Cordes, chairman of German industry group Ostausschuss, representing German companies with investments in Eastern Europe, met with Russian officials and Alexei Mordashov, CEO of Severstal metals group. He then briefed the German government on his talks. Chancellor Merkel says dialogue is also part of government policy: "Business contacts are still taking place and I am not interested in seeing the situation escalate, but rather am working towards a de-escalation." Exxon has major investments in Russia and deals with Russian oil companies and the Russian government for oil exploration. Exxon CEO Tillerson has taken a similiar approach....

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The SEC filed the Goldman civil suit the same day that its Inspector General released a report on the gross failure of the SEC for a decade to catch the Ponzi scheme of Allen Stanford. As a result of the lawsuit against Goldman that report never got the front page coverage it deserved leaving most people unaware of some crucial facts about SEC behaviour. The IG report shows how the enforcement chief of the SEC Fort Worth office quashed his staff's efforts to investigate- and following this how he goes into private practice landing Stanford as a client. The Goldman Abacus case has a whole cast of characters, the SEC, the Ratings agencies, and even the supposed victims German bank IKB. IKB sold commercial paper IOU's to investors in mid 2007 that were worthless to investors by the end of that year. IKB's CEO Stefan Ornstein went on trial in Germany for lying about IKB's financial condition before its collapse.

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Inflation went upto 15.7% in February in Vietnam, the highest in 13 years. The dollar peg of Vietnam's currency helped to boost textile and electronics exports because they were chaeaper than products made in Thailand or Malaysia, the dollar being pegged by the central bank and its being allowed to rise or fall 0.75 a day.But now its boosting inflation as the dollar loses value and Vietnam's central bank widened the narrow band for the dong to 1% from 0.75 %, and the bank says it plans to expand the band to 2% for a rise or fall in one day. The black market rate has devalued the dollar by 3% since March 10, 2008 to 15500 dong to a dollar. Most Vietnamese ae now trying to get their hands on dong and exchanging dollars. The dong's increase in value will help reduce inflation but exporters who get dollars see their revenues in dong fall.

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Investors concerned about inflation in 2012.

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Munich Security Conference is being organized by Christoph Heusgen, the conference chair, who was an adviser to Angela Merkel and previous German  Representative at the United Nations. It will be held Feb 14-16 at the Bayerischer Hof hotel in Munich. JD Vance will be attending for the US with alarge delegation including Keith Kellogg US DJT envoy to Ukraine and Zelensky of Ukraine. German federal elections are on Feb. 23, 2025 with CDU's Merz holding a lead. Pete Hegseth Defense Secretary is not attending the conference. Hegseth has expressed views skeptical about Ukraine. Mark Rutte, the former Dutch PM is attending as Secretary General of NATO. The Munich Security Conference Report cites DJT and says- "Indeed, the notion of 'resource scarcity' has become a central premise of Republican foreign policy thinking." Germany barely spends 2% on defense. DJT wants to see 5%. DJT's comments are published in the Munich Security Report- "We were being ripped off by European nations both on trade and on NATO." "If you don't pay, we're not going to protect you." ...

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US president DJT meets Indian PM Modi on the first day of his visit to the US. PBS shows the joint press conference of the two leaders as India and the US embark on a new journey. India to reach out for 1.4 billion people- and as a model for 1.7 billion people including Indonesia- reach out for Developed modern India by 2047, the 100th anniversary of India's independence from the British Empire. The US as the leading western economy meeting new challenges from China as it partners with India for 2.4 billion people living in South Asian and North American democracies and the UK/Canada/Australia/Japan the largest group of people with a common history and institutions of government based on a shared history with Britain and the Modern World it created by pioneering the Scientific and Industrial Revolution. And a shared civilization where the Bhagavad Gita meets the Authorized Version of the Bible in the religion and civilizations that provide a common heritage of the spirit. To conduct the affairs of man in ways that provide good honest governance and a shared interest in peaceful development for the welfare of humanity. ...

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French premier Francis Bayrou puts forward ideas for the new government in Jan 2025- Immigration- "Seeking a form of harmony also means addressing the fears and realities that immigration raises in our country. (...) My deep conviction is that immigration is first and foremost a question of proportion. It is our duty to direct a policy of control, regulation and return to their country of those whose presence, by their number, endangers the cohesion of the nation." Education- "I think that, in our school and university system, it must be possible to accept and even encourage [career changes], changes in [professional] training."   PM Bayrou for the promotion of reading, at a time when "screens have taken over from any other mechanism for transmitting knowledge. This is a national issue."  "We'll have to go back to studying the notebooks of grievances that were presented by the 'Yellow Vests'," for "the expectations, often the most unspoken, that are those of social circles excluded from power" to be heard. ...

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A fact check on Alice Weidel Musk interview on X. The current polls show the leading candidate for chancellor is Habeck of the Greens at 28%. Habeck is known for the work he did to get Germany through a difficult period of cutoff of energy supplies from Russia. He was Deputy Chancellor and Economy Minister in the Scholz government. Scholz is at 20% so is Weidel of AfD. Others are Merz of the Christian Democrats at 25%. Sarah Wagenknecht leads a Socialist party BSW that opposes migrants given asylum similar to the Socialist party in Denmark under PM Mette Frederiksen with 21%. The AfD has 20% support, Christian Democrats have 30%. Social Democrats 20% and Greens about 20%. 7 million immigrants entered Germany since the Merkel years in 2015. The situation in 2015 when Merkel allowed migrants to enter Germany from Austria and Hungary is remembered as a controversial decision. Merkel reversed this decision during the last years of her government. Of the 7 million only 3 million are asylum seekers applications of which some were rejected. The rest were legally allowed into the country. This included Ukrainian refugees from the war with Russia.   ...

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A centrist 73 years, and mentor of Macron, the head of the Movement Democrate allied to Macron's Renaissance party is appointed to succceed Banrnier as PM of France. Macron hit a new low of public approval rating of 23% by Ipsos. Scholz of Germany is at 18% following reaching 65% in Jan 2022. Bayrou says-“I am fully aware of the Himalaya of difficulties that lie before us,” Bayrou says he would strive for a “necessary reconciliation” with Melenchon of France Unbowed party and Marie Le Pen of National Rally on the left and right of the centrist Macron. These are mere labels- both Melenchon and Marie Le Pen want to see higher public spending and no cuts in the Budget for 2025, Macron is not eager for cuts, Barnier wanted to cut the budget to cut the growing deficit but this is not a time to cut spending as investment is needed to grow the economy and meet needs for public services and cost of living assistance. Macron was taken by surprise by Barnier's approach leading to a no confidence vote and Barnier resigning.  ...

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Early warnings that the cost cutting of Musk DOGE was a lot of PR and controversy, where instead Republicans are disciplined and persevering. Could Musk and DOGE controversies have done more harm than good by not having disciplined cost cutting that people respect as needed. One should remember that it is not on party lines- all parties should be disciplined about federal spending to preserve the strength of the US dollar and the economy. Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1976 proposed Planning Programming Budgeting Systems where every year last year's budget is irrelevant, the budget for the new year is built from scratch and offers discipline to avoid unnecessary costs in the budget, items from previous years simply pushing up deficits. PPBS courses were taught at Northwestern Business School and I took it at the time- not offered now. Once a bureaucrat has a budget no matter what his politics he wants to keep it. Democrat Harry Truman in 1940 went on the shipyards and into factories to supervise firsthand the federal spending in the war making hime known for the first time in Congress. Prudence in spending is everyone's responsibility.   ...

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Saudi inflation went up by close to 9% in February, from January's 7% figure. Rents increased in February by 18% and food costs by 13%. The peg of the Saudi currency to the dollar accounts for 35% of inflation. Saudi peg is at 3.75 riyals to the dollar. The Saudi Monetary Agency cut interest rates 0.75 % in line with the Federal Reserve to maintain its peg, even while the Saudi are pouring money into construction of new cities in the desert and building new refinig and aluminium plants so the liquidity in the economy gets a further boost from lower interest rates when it does not need one. And the lower rates will only create more pressures on inflation in addition to those already present from all the money the governmet is spending from increasing oil revenues.

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Germany's biggest bank Deutsche Bank is described here in WSJ as one of the banking industry's biggest basket cases, having suffered legal investigations, management turnover and legal fines over many years. This time the German government is working on merging the bank with Commerzbank AG in a last effort to straighten out the huge mess and losses at the bank, says WSJ. A former JP Morgan manager, Mr. Zames, 48 years old, who joined the bank at the time of the London whale scandal is now working for Cerberus Capital which is acting in a multilayered relationship with Deutsche Bank  as adviser to management as well as having complex financial dealings with Deutsche Bank. In the process says WSJ he would be rescuing a soured bet on Deutsche Bank by Cerberus which owns 3% of Deutsche Bank as well as 5% fo Commerzbank. The investment made in 2017 was shown as $1.1 billion but is worth half that today. The arrangement is unusual for Deutsche Bank and shows how far the bank has changed from its early years as Germany's leading bank. It was founded in 1870 and in 1998 acquired Bankers Trust for a presence on Wall Street. This turned out to be a bad investment as $4 billion premium paid for Bankers Trust was later written off. Deutsche Bank never really recovered from these moves into Wall Street banking. The SDP in the German coalition government sees the merger with Commerzbank as one more move to get out of the mess, though no one really knows considering the complex dealings of the bank and its problems with legal authorites in Germany. ...

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What the Indian Supreme Court failed to do was ask for accountability for the nearly 3 years lost in timely delivery of infrastructure that was to be completed in 2021 for the $3 billion Metro subway for Mumbai. Work that was moving 24 hours a day 7 days a week under Ms Ashwini Bhide was stalled and left to stagnate. This is unconscionable for a country with 1.4 billion people and most under 35 years whose aspirations get repeatedly stuck in the mud by politicians and a mentality that has itself given into the way colonial powers looked at India of being undeveloped, dirty and disorganized. Mohandas Gandhi would have a hard time understanding that Hind Swaraj that he envisioned in 1910 could lead to this kind of stagnation. Mr. Jain points out that the Indian Supreme Court has left it to the Assembly Speaker to decide on the issue of disqualification of 16 MLA's- in effect leaving the new government in place which has a majority in the Maharashtra state assembly in India. The 2 party coalition was formed between Mr. Modi's party BJP in the state, the principal driver for infrastructure and 24 X 7 development in India, and Mr. Shinde's party on 30 June 2023.  From November 2019 to June 2023 for the period of the pandemic for 2 years and 8 months the state was under a government that stalled on major infrastructure projects in the state that were being done 24 hours a day. Such as a huge project that the WSJ called "audacious" run by Ashwini Bhide at MMRC with over $2 billion from the Japan International Cooperation Agency for a new METRO subway for Mumbai taking it into the 21st century from an old broken British rail system. Unfortunately neither the Supreme Court or the press delved into the loss of 3 years that added this loss in infrastructure that was to be completed in 2021 to the losses from the pandemic. The project is back to operating 24 hours a day 7 days a week under Ms. Ashwini Bhide since the Shinde government was formed in June 2023 with pm Modi's party in the state.  ...

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The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) says in a new report that the cost of renewable energy production in India in 2020 is the lowest of 8 countries, including China, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, U.S. It also points out that India has lowered the cost of solar energy faster than any other country since 2017- by 80% for the period 2010-2018. Solar energy for India in 2018 cost 27% lower than in 2017. Major achievements have been made in solar energy and are continuing with bold targets. In 2020 solar makes up 36% of total energy capacity, with production at 136 gigawatts. In India the conditions with high degree of sunlight in most parts of the country, and the technology cost reductions, lower cost of land and labor, help bring down the cost of solar energy every year. The bold targets and action taken are symbolic of the new efforts in India. The early efforts in India are described as overcoming the hurdle of preconceived notions that electricity shortages had to be accepted as a way of life. In Gujarat the first efforts over 15 years ago were taken by rejecting the idea that electricity could not be made widely and freely available. To do this policy had to be set by starting with first a clean slate and then with a clean heart say pioneers in India's early gains. A clean heart because of how desperately people needed electricity. And a clean slate because how desperately people needed to start from scratch with a new structure and new way of doing things set in place. As Vivekananda put it over 100 years ago "This I have seen in life. One who is overcautious about himself falls into dangers at every step. he who is afraid of losing honor and respect gets only disgrace. He who is always afraid of loss always loses." By taking bold action, making small experiments then setting bold targets and setting structures in place to execute manned with resources, India has achieved 4G in all parts of the country, and is doing the same for renewable energy to make electricity widely available in all parts of the country. ...

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Issues of inequality and lack of upward mobility came up in the last presidential election. A Federal Reserve Survey for 2018 shows the financial fragility facing many Americans. One quarter of working individuals say they do not have any retirement savings. About 17% of households say they cannot pay all their monthly bills. About 40% of Americans say they do not have enough cash to cover an unexpected $400 expense, and would have to rely on credit cards balances or loans from family to make the payment. This survey by the Federal Reserve is done each year since 2013, after the financial crisis hit in 2009 it became more important. Still Americans are showing unusual resilience and upbeat spirit. About 75% say they were doing Ok or living comfortably up from 63% in 2013. And two out of three described lovcal economic conditions as "good" or "excellent."  This shows that the financial vulnerability resulting in the loss of jobs in the U.S. both from jobs lost in manufacturing going overseas,  jobs lost through automation or industrial decline in some sectors, and the hit from job loss during the financial crisis and its aftermath years of 2009-2014 is still leaving a lot of families financially vulnerable. Low interest rates and stagnant wages also meant savings growth for ordinary Americans was less than it should be in a healthy economy without booms and busts. This is also the environment in which the U.S. is tackling challenges to its technological leadership in 5G following a decline in sectors such as autos and electronics, with job losses to Japan and South Korea. New trade agreements are focussed on correcting the imbalance, first with Mexico, South Korea, and now with China. Focus is also on fair wages and labour overseas to raise American wages in key sectors. The damage done by a low interest rate to savings of ordinary Americans outside the stock markets is also being seen as a downside in the boom bust cycle, that includes loss of jobs for vulnerable American families. The rise of the tech sectors has diluted the traditional protections of working class Americans with the shifts and realignment of the major parties. ...

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 South Korea has run about 300,000 coronavirus tests, double that in Italy and ten times that in the U.S., says this report in the WSJ. This report shows how the South Korean testing works and the workday of Lee Hyuk-min, a clinical microbiologist at a testing lab of Yonsei University Health System Severance Hospital in Seoul, who is working from 4.45 am to 11 pm. South Korea's effectiveness in controlling the spread is based on a strategy of efficient testing that enables isolating quickly people and areas. South Korea's testing network is a legacy of the MERS coronavirus outbreak in 2015, and the government failure at that time to control it.  It brings together doctors, medical staff, labs, and political leaders in roles following the protocols established since then. Dr Lee and others are the final checkpoint in the system which coordinates a diagnostic operation that combines together 633 test sites and 100 labs. The protocol includes a uniform setup- same testing equipment, same training, same decision making process. At 8 am each day all labs upload results to a shared database, which allows public and private hospitals to monitor patient results and report them to Korea Centers for Disease Prevention and Control. Hospitals upload testing details to an online directory. This surveillance allows South Korea to predict where to concentrate its efforts for controlling spread, says Dr Lee who advises the South Korean government on lab testing issues. Action plan took 2 years for the new rules to be implemented following MERS in 2015. The plan included accelerated bio testing company approval for tests. The first company got approval on Feb 4, followed by 4 other firms. Dr Lee says testing is only part of the equation as labs are needed to process and confirm results. Another key is innovation. South Korea setup testing in drive thru locations, that limit contact and speed up testing, which the U.S. is adopting. Dr Lee says early identification is key, and identifying the first coronavirus patient which was done in South Korea on January 20. Other countries including the U.S. took too long to identify the first patient, says Dr. Lee. ...

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Currency changes with a weaker dollar and growing international sales of notebooks helped HP increase sales in the PC business by 30%.

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Nickel cadmium batteries - this year 2008 the European Union is banning the sale of all nickel cadmium batteries. Question is why is the US not banning them. And why are companies like Energizer, Duracell, P&G, Mattel, Toys R Us and Walmart still buying them? Why is Panasonic making them? A toy costs $1.50 less to make using nickel cadmium batteries. Are parents aware of what it does to workers making them? Are plants safe in developing countries especially in corruption prone coercive environments like the one in factories in China? Some of the owners of such factories are in Hong Kong, Hong Kong based companies, are they aware enough of the risks and the ethics of doing is? This story is of an engineer who was exposed to factory conditions in a company GP that was supposed to be a good company to work for, and few knew about the effects of cadmium in the year 1995 when she joined. The Panasonic factory is in Wuxi which is not in some remote part of China. And note this about 10% of China's arable land is contaminated with heavy metals such as cadmium according to China's own State Environmental Protection Agency, and the metals are entering China's food supply. 12 studies have shown unsafe level of cadmium in fruits and vegetables. Is this a necessary price of industrialization or is it possible to find a way thats better- a challenge for countries like India. Can there be better protection of workers and still have industrialization? Wouldn't it make sense that a motivated well treated work force will perform better in better working conditions. Aren't there costs involved for workers and owners of such plants. Owners also bear costs, bad press, medical payments, workers leave and good workers are hard to find in the wave of bad publicity and health risks, customers in the west refuse to buy the product, the company's brand name is tarnished forever, as would happen for GP in this case. The coercive patterns of using police to suppress publicity for a Hong Kong Company shows owners in Hong Kong have the same disregard for worker rights, even when living in an area that one hears talk about democratic rights. See the link to chemical spills contaminating a river in China also by a Hong Kong based company. ...