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Government GDP figures show the GDP shrank by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015, the first such contraction in the economy since 2009. Household consumption was down 3.2%. The sharp decline in the value of the lira by 20% in 2016 makes imports costlier, in an economy dependent on consumption spending and tourism for higher GDP growth. Political uncertainty with instability in Turkey following a crackdown on opposition and media also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

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Harold Meyerson poses some difficult questions for those who like Mitt Romney say America's choice is between the merit based society Romney sees and the "European social democratic vision." In Romney's words- "a merit-based opportunity society- an American-style society- where people earn their rewards based on their education, their work, their willingness to take risks and their dreams." Meyerson cites several studies to show that European societies today are more dynamic on several measures of performance than America's. In intergenerational mobility he cites a Brookings Institution study by Julia Isaacs, that shows incomes are three times more likely to remain the same in America compared to Denmark, Norway and Finland, and one and a half times more frequently than in Germany. Another measure evident from Germany's experience is the degree of union-company-government cooperation to worker retraining, corporate boards that have representatives of workers and management, the "kurzarbeit" program of retaining employees to smooth out impact of cyclical swings in the economy on workers and companies, and worker's willingness to show restraint on wages especially because management wages are not way out of line as in America. Meyerson reminds readers that the U.S. had a more merit based society in terms of upward intergenerational mobility, distribution of rewards of work between workers in manufacturing and service sectors and management, educational mobility with the G.I. bill, in the first 30 years after the Second World War. In a separate article in the Washington Post on Jan. 5, 2012, David Ignatius poses questions about the effects of globalization in shrivelling the middle class. The access to lower wage manufacturing in China, India, Mexico, and other countries, and lowering of wages in the U.S. to be competitive, was part of globalization. The two tier wage structure in the U.S. automobile industry is one example, making middle class wages a thing of the past. Globalization opened up new markets for American companies. Yet many of the gains in employment were made in emerging markets, as the example of GM's expansion in China showed, with automobile manufacturing expansion inside China....

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Jon Hilsenrath of WSJ provides an illuminating account of how Daniel Tarullo as head of the Large Institution Supervision Coordination Committee has changed the way bank supervision and rules are set for U.S. banks since the days of the 2008 financial crisis. Tarullo started the effort under Ben Bernanke and continues this in 2014-2015 under Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen. The New York Fed is seen as ineffective in bank supervision and the supervisory role is now entirely performed under the leadership of Tarullo, assisted by Kenneth Gibson and Timothy Clark. The trio are some of the great unsung heroes of the effort to put the U.S. financial system and the economy on a safer footing.

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Official currency reserves of developing world countries almost quadrupled over the last decade to $2.9 trillion. Reserves of industrialized countries went up by 150%. In 2005 reserves went up by 18% for developing countries and declined 1.5% for developed countries. 70% of total currency reserves are in developing countries. This is a huge accumulation of reserves by developing countries in a short period. In 2005 74% of overall reserves were in U.S. dollars. The reserves help countries pay bills and make investments. For developing countries having sufficient reserves helps in two other ways. The reserves are a buffer in emergencies , and means countries like Brazil and S. Korea don't have to turn to the IMF or the U.S. for assistance. Another way this helps is for countries like China to be able to use their reserves to keep their currencies from appreciating and maintain a competitive edge in exports.

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David Blanchford of Dartmouth College and Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute of International Economics argue in a recent paper that the true indicator of unemployment in this economy -with a low participation rate and millions dropping out of the labor market unable to find work- is the wage growth. This is particularly true with the U.S. Labor Department report of 288,000 new jobs in 2014 and a 6.3% unemployment rate, yet wages flat for March and April 2014, and no improvement in the participation rate. Blanchford says one should look at the wage growth and consider the rest to be noise. The Yellen Fed is looking closely at the participation rate.

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Shipping and freight statistics show an increase of shipments from Mexico. Trains and truck shipments from Mexico to the U.S. increased by 8.7% by weight in the first 11 months of 2011 compared to the prior year. By comparison shipping containers entering the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach went down by 0.2% in 2011. Mexico stands to benefit from the shift in dynamics as manufacturing costs in China increase with labor constraints, higher wages, higher commercial land prices and recent Asian supply chain issues making firms wary of unanticipated problems. This is expected to benefit the U.S. with the return of some manufacturig jobs and a serious rethink of outsourcing. Because of highly automated factories and advanced technologies the manufacturing process requires fewer and more skilled operators, reducing the labor component of costs. Carlisle Companies CEO, David Roberts says he is expanding tire manufacturing plants in Tennessee. He says he can make tires as cheaply or cheaper in the U.S than in China. This has serious implications as the U.S. gets down to rebuilding and renewal of its manufacturing industry....

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Italy's major problem is lack of growth, with growth averaging 0.3% in 2001-2010 compared to 1.1% for the eurozone area. In the 1st quarter of 2011 growth was only 0.1%. Italian bonds yield two percentage points above the yield on German bunds. With growth at the present level, Italy's would see an increase in debt to GDP ratios, according to Barclays Capital. Debt to GDP is currently at 119%.

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Applebaum talks to two researchers at the University of Chicago and Princeton, Prof. Sufi and Prof. Mian, on the record of U.S. president Obama and Fed chairman Bernanke in helping homeowners facing foreclosure and underwater borrowers, comparing that record with their record in helping the banks. The issue is relevant as the policy and handling of homeowners had to be part of an overall effective plan for recovery in the U.S. economy, because ultimately without the U.S. consumer any recovery would be weak in the long run- a situation the U.S. faces in early 2014. The response to the issue of irresponsible homeowners borrowing beyond the limit without an equally robust response to irresponsible bank management that allowed wildly excessive leveraging of assets, and successful aggressive lobbying by banks in a shortsighted policy of going through with a wave of foreclosures; besides creating questions of fairness and equitable handling of the problem, also had major ramifications for the future of the U.S. and global economic growth. Here Christina Romer and other administration advisors say Bernanke was right in tackling the problem from the perspective of the banks needing to be recapitalized. Thoughtful advisors looking at the entire problem, Martin Feldstein and Sheila Bair strongly pushed for providing the same help to homeowners without getting caught up in the issue of who was responsible home buyers or the banks, and looking at the interests of the U.S. economy and the U.S. people. Proposals by Feldstein and Bair were equally robust in helping banks as they were in helping homeowners, only the banks understood their interests narrowly and had more access to policymakers in the Bush, as well as the Obama administration, Paulson as well as Geithner. This leaves us with the ultimate irony of the Obama administration pushing for the minimum wage, even to the point of electoral posture, when lasting damage had been inflicted on homeowners from the weaker portions of America's middle class by a policy that went against what two respected financial and economic experts from the Reagan period, Sheila and Bair had strongly advocated. See links and groups on Feldstein and Bair. Applebaum has followed most aspects of this problem closely and continues to provide exceptional reporting including the piece on the thinking of new Fed chairman, Janet Yellen. Private enterprise rules that require management at banks just as for other companies to take responsibility for failures, and be replaced with new management, was largely avoided leading to a fundamental failure in how a free market economy such as the U.S. and western European economies are supposed to function. Rules aggressively pushed by Geithner's mentor Treasury Secretary Rubin for a vigorous cleanup at banks in South Korea during a similiar situation in 1997, were not followed in any way here, also setting wrong precedents for the long run. ...

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Tax cuts initiated by the Bush administration and to a smaller degree by the Obama administration account for $6.3 trillon of the $10 trillion deficit in 2011. This is about half the $12.7 trillion gap between the $2.3 trillion surplus predicted by the CBO a decade ago for the year 2011 and the current deficit of $10.4 trillon. Two wars and higher defense spending add another $2 trillion. The Stimulus added $700 billon. The Prescription Drug Benefit for seniors $272 billion. This is based on new analysis of CBO data by the Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative. The record shows unrestrained spending by both parties has led to the current mess. Pete Domenici who chaired the Senate Budget Committee at the time of the first tax cuts in 2001 says "in the end the floodgates were opened." This also shows how quickly the situation can change if sound fiscal practices are abandoned. Two wars were financed entirely with borrowed money for the first time in U.S. history.

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Plans to reduce the number of board members in Toyota's Board of Directors, from the 27 today to something closer to 12 directors. The move is designed to enable serious discussion at the highest levels and lead to speedy decisions.

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Greece's national statistics agency Elstat shows data indicating a rapidly deteriorating Greek economy. The unemployment rate went up to 20.9% in November, up from 18.2 % the prior month, with the total number of unemployed at 1.029 million. Industrial output declined by 11.3% in December 2011 compared to the prior year. The unemployment rate is 48% for young people ages 15-24 for November 2011 compared to 35.6% in the prior year. For women the unemployment rate was 25.4% in November, compared to 17% the prior year. In the region of Attica, which includes Athens, the unemployment rate was 21.1% in November compared to 19.2% in October, and 13.9% the prior year. This creates new concern whether austerity measures will work and whether the Greek people can go through a decade of austerity programs, with debt still at 120% of GDP in 2020 under the program designed by the EU and the IMF, or whether there are other solutions that offer more hope of recovery.

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Britain's David Cameron leads the successful effort to hold down spending in the European Union's next 7 year budget plan, supported by Germany and the Netherlands. The new 2014-2020 EU budget plan holds down government contributions to the budget to 959.99 billion euros. There is a 35 billion decrease from the last budget plan after adjusting for inflation, and less than the 1.03 trillion euros proposed by the European Commission, the EU's executive body. Actual spending is set at 908 billion euros compared to 943 billion euros for 2007-2013. Cuts were made in some areas- direct subsidies to farmers went down to 277 billion euros from 337 billion euros. EU funding to tackle high youth unemployment and build transnational infrastructure increased 37% to 126 billion euros. Funds allocated for investment projects in poorer regions slightly declined to 325 billion euros. Special rebates to the UK and the Netherlands remain- the Netherlands rebate is 1 billion euros. The mood of European leaders was summarized in the words of Britain's prime minister Cameron: "Frankly, the European Union should not be immune from the sorts of pressures that we have to reduce spending, find efficiencies and make sure that we spend money wisely that we are all having to do right across Europe."...