The pause in the U.S. economy with the May 2016 U.S. jobs report showing 38,000 jobs added

06/06/2016

Krugman discusses the U.S. May 2016 jobs report from the Labor Department. He says it will be harder to come up with a response to the political uncertainty in an election year, especially now that rates are near zero.

Linked Articles

Sharp Fall in U.S. Hiring Saps Chance of Fed Rate Increase in June

The New York Times 06/03/2016

The New York Times 06/06/2016

The origins of the Panama Papers Scandal- an anonymous source and Bastian Obermayer of the German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung

04/05/2016

Linked Articles

How a Cryptic Message, ‘Interested in Data?,’ Led to the Panama Papers

New York Times 04/05/2016

Nicola Clark, Nicola, Clark

Washington Post 04/07/2016

Paul Farhi, Paul, Farhi

Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs

03/08/2016

By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.

Linked Articles

How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire

Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016

Bob Davis, Bob, Davis

Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016

Holman W. Jenkins Jr., Holman, W., Jenkins, Jr.

The EU's evolving relations with Turkey in 2016- Germany's Merkel and the Erdogan government reach an agreement on refugees in March 2016

03/07/2016

Merkel facing populist pressures and opposition from the CDU to accepting more refugees tries to get Turkey to stem the flow and send refugees back to Turkey. The Erdogan government with its own problems and seeking a closer relationship with the EU following the Russian bombing of the Turkmen in Syria and shooting down of a Russian plane approves the agreement.

Linked Articles

Stakes Are High for Germany’s Angela Merkel in Success of New Migrant Deal

Wall Street Journal 03/24/2016

Simon Nixon, Simon, Nixon

New York Times 03/07/2016

James Kanter, James, Kanter

U.S. presidential candidate Ted Cruz's assessment of the 2016 presidential election- rallying the Republican party base critical to win in 2016

12/14/2015

Linked Articles

Ted Cruz Starts to Crack G.O.P. Establishment’s Wall of Opposition

New York Times 01/13/2016

Jonathan Martin, Jonathan, Martin

Washington Post 12/14/2015

Tom Hamburger, Tom, Hamburger

Former German chancellor Helmut Schmidt who led Germany during its postwar economic transformation in the 1970's and setup the groundwork for the Euro

11/10/2015

Linked Articles

Helmut Schmidt dies; West German chancellor was transformative leader - The Washington Post

Washington Post 11/11/2015

Michael Getler, Michael, Getler

New York Times 11/10/2015

Jonathan Kandell, Jonathan, Kandell

2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.

09/09/2015

The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.

Linked Articles

The Bush Growth Plan

Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015

Editorial

New York Times 09/09/2015

Alan Rappeport, Alan, Rappeport, Matt Flegenheimer, Matt, Flegenheimer

The huge contrast between Chancellor Merkel's approach and the approach of Obama and Cameron to the Syrian refugee crisis

08/20/2015

The German chancellor will be remembered in history for the way she handled the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015, and for the courage to say, "if Europe fails on the question of refugees, its close connection with universal civil rights will be destroyed." Reports in the Guardian newspaper say Germany is likely to accept about 1 million refugees in 2015. Chancellor Merkel says about 800,000 refugees will be admitted in 2015. Contrast this with the UK reports the Guardian which has 166 refugees admitted to the UK, and reports in the WSJ that about 1500 refugees have been admitted to the U.S.. Merkel has taken on the challenge in a spirited way as Europe faces anti-immigrant sentiment and rallied German society in a way that is remarkable. The withdrawal of the Obama administration from the Middle East led to the collapse of the fragile situation in Libya, Iraq and Syria, and the unravelling of these countries, leading to the current refugee crisis with about half of the Syrian population dislocated and large parts of the population of Libya, Iraq, and Kurdish regions dislocated.

Linked Articles

U.S. Pressed to Take More Syrian Refugees

Wall Street Journal 09/05/2015

Felicia Schwartz, Felicia, Schwartz

Washington Post 08/20/2015

Rick Noack, Rick, Noack

German experts and public opinion who see Greece's exit from the eurozone as the best thing for the euro in July 2015 (1)

07/07/2015

Chancellor Merkel's statement that the the Euro is the EU, now place more emphasis on building a strong future for the euro. Experts in Germany believe the euro is better off without Greece by July 2015. As the WSJ editorial points out political contagion is now a bigger threat to the euro, with euro skeptic parties joining populist parties with no committment to the common currency and its basic rules.

Linked Articles

German Finance Chief’s Hard Line on Greece Limits Angela Merkel’s Room to Maneuver

Wall Street Journal 07/09/2015

Anton Troianovski, Anton, Troianovski

New York Times 07/07/2015

Jochen Bittner, Jochen, Bittner

The women's vote in 2016 U.S. presidential election and the antiincumbency mood of 2016- risks for Clinton running a cautious campaign and big risks for Trump

06/11/2015

Hillary Clinton needs a vigorous campaign away from the cautious instincts of the early days of her campaign, as Trump seeks to deflect criticism by attacking Hillary Clinton, say experts. The risks are high for Trump if the effort backfires alienating the vast majority of women, including Sanders supporters, independents and traditional Republican moderates. This is one of the wild twists of the campoaign of 2016- a candidate apparently making sexist comments to attract the support of white women voter- and men.

Linked Articles

Hillary Needs More Than the Obama Coalition

Wall Street Journal 06/11/2015

William A. Galston, William, A., Galston

New York Times 04/28/2016

Amy Chozick, Amy, Chozick, Ashley Parker, Ashley, Parker

Norway parliament's decision to divest holdings in companies 30% dependent on coal opens up debate on coal- (3) Coal India and the 1 billion ton target for 2020

05/14/2015

With about 300 million people without electricity, and India lagging behind Brazil and Indonesia in the percentage of population lacking electricity, the goal is to modernize the coal industry and increase production. This shows the different tradeoffs in less developed countries such as India, which face a completely different set of tradeoffs, and are moving in the opposite direction out of necessity. China is just entering a period after rapid modernization where the discussion about the tradeoffs is shifting, whereas India remains in a very different phase.

Linked Articles

Norway Will Divest From Coal in Push Against Climate Change

New York Times 06/05/2015

John Schwartz, John, Schwartz

Wall Street Journal 05/14/2015

Raymond Zhong And Niharika Mandhana, Raymond, Zhong, And, Niharika, Mandhana

The Obama administration's efforts on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), after losing allies in Asia and Europe to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

04/17/2015

The Obama administration pushes a free trade pact that includes the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. This free trade pact is now seen as a U.S. effort to counter China in the Asian region. India, UK, Germany, France, Italy and other European countries decided to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank sponsored by China, on its merits, after the U.S. refused to join.

Linked Articles

TPP: Momentum on Trade Deal Bolsters U.S., Japan Efforts to Counter China

Wall Street Journal 04/17/2015

Jacob Schlesinger, Jacob, Schlesinger, Mitsuru Obe, Mitsuru, Obe, And Mark Magnier, And, Mark, Magnier

Wall Street Journal 04/17/2015

William Mauldin, William, Mauldin