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The cost of the crisis to Russia exceeds $200 billion- a story of wasted opportunities to diversify away from oil and gas and integrate fully into the competitive global economy
01/29/2015
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/29/2015
Russia Lifts Crisis Cost EstimateWall Street Journal 01/29/2015
The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Abenomics advisers Yamamoto and Hamada, and Japanese prime minister Abe's decision in Nov. 2014 to challenge the Finance Ministry's views
11/20/2014
Abe calls for a snap election in Dec. 2014 after delaying the second increase in the consumption tax from 8% to 10% in 2015. About 53% of the Japanese public opposed the doubling of the consumption tax by 2015 in 2011 poll as the DPJ party Noda administration pushed for it on the advice of the Finance Ministry. Now after the 3rd quarter showed Japan in a recession over 70% of the Japanese public oppose a second increase in the consumption tax to 10% from 8% in 2015. Abenomics advisors Hamada and Yamamoto now say this increase in the tax (especially when wages are only gradually increasing) was never a part of the Abenomics.
Linked Articles
Japan’s No. 1 Reflationist Does a Victory Dance
Wall Street Journal 11/20/2014
With Bad Economic News for Japan, Abe’s Magic Seems to EvaporateNew York Times 11/20/2014
Shaile oil as a lasting factor for oil supplies beyond 2015- U.S. shale oil production likely to weather Saudi price cuts as technology advances
10/23/2014
Linked Articles
The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale
Economist 01/13/2015
The Oil Price Swoon Won’t Stop the Shale BoomWall Street Journal 10/23/2014
The huge negative effect of tech on jobs in the U.S., and other countries- prioritizing solutions in 2015-2025
10/06/2014
The Economist and William Galston writing in the WSJ, look at the hugely negative effect on jobs as technology makes it possible to produce the same output in goods with fewer workers. Galston offers solutions for the U.S., and the Economist offers solutions for EUrope, Asia, and other regions that need to create jobs.
Linked Articles
Countering Tech’s Damaging Effect on Jobs
Wall Street Journal 10/15/2014
The world economy: Wealth without workers, workers without wealthEconomist 10/06/2014
Lufthansa low cost carrier Eurowings and Air France-KLM low cost carrier Transavia in 2015- an effort to setup separate airlines to remain competitive
09/28/2014
Linked Articles
Lufthansa Chief Carsten Spohr Defends Airline’s No-Frills Push
New York Times 12/08/2014
Air France Pilots End Two-Week StrikeNew York Times 09/28/2014
The Baltic Republics and Ukraine- frontlines in the confrontation with Russia's Putin (2)
09/03/2014
Linked Articles
Ukrainian President Sets Sights on Closer E.U. Ties
New York Times 09/25/2014
Obama Pledges NATO Backing for Baltic AlliesWall Street Journal 09/03/2014
Russia and "dirty money" flowing into the West, including the City of London, hurting the average Russian and the Russian economy- the role of western sanctions in limiting this flow
07/22/2014
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2014
Putinism Thrives on Dirty MoneyWall Street Journal 07/22/2014
European Commission president Jean Claude-Juncker's credibility gap and the lack of scrutiny and elected support for the EU's top official
06/26/2014
Linked Articles
Juncker scandal prompts sniping at European Commission election system - The Washington Post
Washington Post 11/14/2014
Jean-Claude Juncker, Quietly in Eye of E.U. StormNew York Times 06/26/2014
Russia's effort to fight western sanctions in 2015, Euroskeptic parties and the European Union
04/25/2014
Linked Articles
Russia Wields Aid and Ideology Against West to Fight Sanctions
New York Times 06/07/2015
What Putin Is Costing RussiaWall Street Journal 04/25/2014
Ukraine's economic crisis during the conflict with Russia- 2014-2016
03/28/2014
Linked Articles
IMF Reaches Deal to Provide up to $18 Billion to Ukraine
Wall Street Journal 03/28/2014
Ukraine’s Hryvnia Plunges After Rate RiseWall Street Journal 02/07/2015
Hope and reality in India and Nigeria- The Singh administration in India 2010-2014, and the Jonathan administration in Nigeria 2011-2015
02/21/2014
Are too many young people in the most populous countries of Africa and Asia seeing their hopes dashed and their dreams vanish with the mismanagement of the resources of the country and of the economy? Is the demographic dividend in these countries about to be wasted? Is the goodwill of foreign investors in Europe and the U.S. eager to bring the latest technologies to these countries, as they did in China, about to be wasted by sheer mismanagement and misallocation of resources? These questions are on the minds of young people in Nigeria and India as they rest their hopes on the Buhari and Modi administrations.
Linked Articles
Nigerian Central Bank Governor Ousted
Wall Street Journal 02/21/2014
India Allocated Coal Fields to Private Companies Illegally, Top Court RulesNew York Times 08/25/2014
A major problem for western oil companies- the rapid increase in cost of oil and gas exploration and pipelines
01/29/2014
Projects are exceeding estimates and costs tripling or quadrupling in some cases. The search for solutions includes building processing plants for LNG on ships to eliminate the cost of building pipelines.
Linked Articles
Shell Plans Boat to Tap Gas Fields
Wall Street Journal 01/29/2014
Big Oil Companies Struggle to Justify Soaring Project CostsWall Street Journal 01/29/2014
Russia and global financial markets in 2014-2015- a disconnect between an economy connected to the global economy and separation from a postwar order of international cooperation within a global economy
01/29/2015
Linked Articles
Stopping Putin Without Firing a Shot
Wall Street Journal 02/11/2015
From Russia With No LoveWall Street Journal 01/29/2015
Tesla Motors and the problem of meeting target deliveries at a time of low gas prices in 2015-2016
12/05/2014
Linked Articles
Tesla First-Quarter Car Deliveries Rise Above 10,000
Wall Street Journal 04/04/2015
Tesla May Run Slow on Cheap GasWall Street Journal 12/05/2014
Shale oil as a lasting factor for oil supplies beyond 2015- U.S. shale oil production likely to weather Saudi price cuts
10/23/2014
Linked Articles
The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale
Economist 01/13/2015
The Oil Price Swoon Won’t Stop the Shale BoomWall Street Journal 10/23/2014
Impact of higher gas prices on Tesla Motors in 2014-2015
10/22/2014
Linked Articles
Tesla May Run Slow on Cheap Gas
Wall Street Journal 12/05/2014
Daimler Sells Its 4% Stake in TeslaWall Street Journal 10/22/2014
Warnings at a banking conference in Moscow in October 2014, and the ruble on the brink of collapse on Dec. 17, 2014
10/02/2014
The central bank head, Nabiullina, the Economy minister, Ulyukayev, and the head of Russia's largest bank Sberbank, German Gref, all expressed skepticism about president Putin's confidence in economic policy at a banking conference in Moscow in Oct. 2014. The architect of Russia's finances in the first and second terms of Putin, Alexei Kudrin, expressed alarm in Nov.-Dec. 2014 about lack of confidence in economic measures as the ruble took a hit from lower oil prices. The Putin administration made errors in handling economic policy leading to the ruble going to the brink of collapse by Dec. 17, 2014. This was preceded by miscalculations in policy towards the European Union and Germany leading to a loss of international confidence, and deteriorating relations with OPEC's leading member Saudi Arabia leading to OPEC's production decisions hurting Russia.
Linked Articles
Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters
New York Times 12/17/2014
Putin Trumpets Economic Strength, but Advisers Seem Less CertainNew York Times 10/02/2014
The Baltic Republics and Ukraine- frontlines in the confrontation with Russia's Putin (1)
09/25/2014
Linked Articles
Ukrainian President Sets Sights on Closer E.U. Ties
New York Times 09/25/2014
Lithuania’s president: ‘Russia is terrorizing its neighbors and using terrorist methods’ - The Washington PostWashington Post 09/25/2014
The West and policies towards Russia- (2) Steinmeier and Merkel on Germany's policy in 2015-2016
08/23/2014
Linked Articles
Merkel Seeks to Defuse Ukraine Crisis as Convoy Returns to Russia
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2014
Frank-Walter Steinmeier Meets With Vladimir PutinNew York Times 11/19/2014
China, the U.S. and Japan- the task of reestablishing peaceful cooperation in the Pacific region after the missteps of 2011-2013
07/09/2014
Meetings for the sixth round of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Bieijing between the U.S. and China, and Japanese prime minister's address to the Australian parliament in Canberra, at about the same time in July 2014, showing how the path of peaceful cooperation will have to be actively pursued to remain a reality. Underpinning the hopes of China, Japan and neighboring countries in Asia is the U.S. will and purpose for maininting the post war peace and stability for the benefit of all, that at times has been missing in the words and actions of the Obama administration. Lack of peace in the region would seriously affect China's effort to bring better incomes to the large majority of people still in the countryside and leave China stuck in middle income status of countries like Mexico, damage the prospects of improving incomes of billions of people in India, other parts of Asia and Latin America. In this sense the Japanese people have shown the wisdom of keeping the conditions of peace that have prevailed for the post war period, and the U.S. with undiminished will and purpose in its post war role can affirm the hopes of the people of the region, including the hope of people in China, India, Japan, S. Korea, and Latin America.
Linked Articles
U.S., China try to emphasize potential for cooperation - The Washington Post
Washington Post 07/09/2014
Abe's Constitutional Reform Push SlowsWall Street Journal 07/09/2014
Tim Cook's effort to fill the role played by Steve Jobs at Apple, and fill in gaps where Jobs could have done more
06/15/2014
Linked Articles
Tim Cook, Making Apple His Own
New York Times 06/15/2014
Jonathan Ive on Apple's Design Process and Product PhilosophyNew York Times 06/16/2014
Putting together the basis for a common approach of Germany and the U.S. to Russia
04/18/2014
Linked Articles
Twin Shocks Shake Foundation of German Power
New York Times 04/18/2014
In Cold War Echo, Obama Strategy Writes Off PutinNew York Times 04/19/2014
The events in Lviv and in the Square in Kiev Feb-20-21, 2014, that led to the collapse of the Yakunovych government in Ukraine
02/22/2014
A parallel diplomatic effort that may have been driven by the events in Lviv and in the Square and underestimated the depth of feeling in Ukraine and the organization of the protest movement.
Linked Articles
As His Fortunes Fell in Ukraine, a President Clung to Illusions
New York Times 02/23/2014
European Ministers Brokered Ukraine Political CompromiseWall Street Journal 02/22/2014
Faces of workers quitting work or reducing hours as they qualify for subsidies on health insurance under the Obama Healthcare Law
02/05/2014
Faces of the workers taking subsidies available to lower income workers under the Obama Health Care Law. The Congressional Budget Office projections for 2021 show about the equivalent of 2.3 million workers worth of hours reduced as a result of the healthcare law subsidies giving workers more choice. Many use the time to work on startup business or child care for grandchildren. The jobs freed up and the hours could be taken up by other workers looking for jobs. Gains in childcare would be another result.
Linked Articles
Health Law To Cut Into Labor Force
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2014
They quit their jobs, thanks to the health law - The Washington PostWashington Post 02/09/2014
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