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Christian Ude, the mayor of Munich from the Social Democrats party, says the Christian Social Union's (CSU) hold on power in Bavaria is likely to be challenged in coming elections. One of the reasons for this is that people are moving to Munich from all over Germany because many companies are hiring. Siemens, Audi, BMW and many Mittelstand companies are based in Munich, and unemployment is the lowest in Germany. The CSU, a partner in Merkel's coalition government, is particularly critical of measures to aid Greece, and steps taken by the ECB to buy the bonds of Spain and Italy to reduce borrowing costs, making it difficult for Merkel to provide flexibility in her negotiations with other eurozone countries.

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Political activism and grassroots efforts- other than street protests - are increasing in eurozone countries facing high unemployment and austerity cuts. The focus is on cleaning up the political system rife with cronyism, corruption and wasteful spending. Brat and Bjork describe one such effort in the town of Torrelodones, Spain, 18 miles from Madrid. Criminal investigations in many Spanish cities have increased public awareness and participation in local government. European Social Survey based in London, reports political activity of this kind in Spain jumped from 27% in 2008 to 39% in 2010. There is an increasing sense that the political elites of the two main parties, the Partido Popular and the Socialists have failed to bring clean government and transparency to Spain. As a result progressives are joining conservatives in an effort to clean up years of wasteful spending, cronyism and corruption in government. The Union for Progress and Democracy, representing an alliance of such groups would win 13% of the vote in a national election, and the ruling conservative Partido Popular would lose half of its support and get only 22.5%, according to independent Spanish polling firm Metroscopia. The new push for transparency is one of the welcome changes at a time of austerity cuts and 27% unemployment in Spain. Many of the perks of public officials such as chaeuffer driven cars and police escorts, contracts for favored few at higher prices, are out in many cities, and accounts made public for scrutiny and change. Transparency International's transparency index shows 33 out of 110 of Spain's biggest cities scoring top grades on the 2012 index, jumping from only one. Following the example of the regional government in Navarra, the central government is drafting the first open-records law. Castilla-La Mancha, the area around Toledo, run by a clean government advocate Maria Dolores de Cospedal from the Partido Popular has taken aggressive steps to clean up the local government and wasteful spending- see the link to Castilla La Mancha. Her long term approach is to clean up government spending and accounts with the idea of preserving spending where it is most needed, in education, healthcare and vital services hit by cuts, an approach being taken in other Spanish cities. ...

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This editorial in Der Spiegel magazine sees something positive emerging from the current state of politics in Germany with the fragmentation in political parties. It says this situation is something that is happening for some time now. In the Netherlands there are a number of parties working together in a coalition government. And in France the Macron movement swept away the old parties. Something similar is also happening in Italy with the Five Star Movement as elections approach in March 2018. This may be a positive development in that the days of 100 percent convention votes, and of career politicians who move up the ranks from one political committee to another, are over. Voters are acting in individualistic way, don't trust the elites and old big tent parties with career politicians who may not be responsive to people's needs.  Young people are eager for more participation, and this may be a good thing, says Der Spiegel. It points out that not just parties like AfD are gaining as a result. SPD support dropped to 16 percent in one poll same as AfD. The Christian Lindner's Free Democrats in Germany also are benefitting,Macron in France is benefitting, Sebastian Kurz in Austria is benefitting. Their parties they prefer to call as "movements" with some marketing and political platforms that appeal to young people. Macron's movement moved aside the old political system and brought in younger people, revitalizing the decaying political system. The conclusion for Der Spiegel is that this change is not entirely good or bad, its a challenge. Our focus should not be on propping up obsolete structures, breathing new life into old political structures could be a good thing with new younger voters looking for participation. So don't be afraid of voters. ...

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Efforts to setup an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria based on the model set by the Autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq. An opportunity for Kurdish people to be able to live with their own language and culture within the framework of a federal state in Iraq and Syria. The Kurdish Autonomous region based in Erbil has acted as a mediator between Sunni and Shiite interests and worked within the framework of a federal state in Iraq. Turkey still fears the minority Kurds within its borders and seeks to assimilate them into Turkey. The government of prime minister Erdogan has shifted the political stance with Kurds by seeking Kurdish support in elections. There is the example in Europe and Asia of people in certain regions working within a federal state that tolerates the culture and language of the people within the state- the Catalans and Basque people in Spain are one example. This has come after years of repression of language and culture, and it has only changed as a new spirit of tolerance has prevailed in Europe after the pain of the period between the wars. A range of other communities with distinct language and culture have learned to function and prosper within a federal state- French Quebec within Canada is another example in N. America. In Asia, the best example is India, which is a federal state with many languages and cultures, varied enough to be amazing. A properly functioning democracy and economic system, with educational systems that support tolerant attitudes, provides the framework for this to happen. It is challenging at times but it is a better alternative to generations of conflict....

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The October 2012 meeting of EU leaders ends with agreement for setting up the EU banking supervisor in the course of 2013. German chancellor Merkel turned down Spain's push for direct aid to its troubled banks and not aid from the ESM bailout fund to Spain which would increase Spain's sovereign debt. The Spanish government has indicated that it might take 40 billion euros out of the 100 billion euros approved by the EU for Spain. Merkel's view is that any direct aid will only go for future recapitalization not to clean up the mess at Bankia and other banks that stems from the failure of Spain's banking regulators and the housing bubble. Merkel said at a news conference: "If recapitalization is possible, it will only be possible for the future." Merkel also said preparations to set up the single banking supervisor would probably go into 2014, and by then "we won't have any more problems with the Spanish banks- at least, I hope not." Germany sees the need to have a carefully developed banking supervision system setup rather than a hurried approach. Merkel is aware that this might be seen as action taken to avoid committing German taxpayer money before elections for chancellor in Sept 2013- "No matter what I'm going to say, it will probably not be the right answer by your standards." ...

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Ms. Annegret Kramp-Krarrenbauer, elected leader of the CDU party in 2018 with the support of Angela Merkel, will not run for chancellor in next years election and will resign from her position by the end of the year. She will continue as Germany's defense minister. After losses for the CDU in recent elections and the embarrassment of local CDU leaders in Thuringia supporting the far right AfD, AKK as she is known decided to step down. Angela Merkel has decided not to run for chancellor again. Germany is set to chair the EU in the second half of 2020, and Merkel is no longer seen as a leader of influence. The Nationalist Alternative for Germany AfD has gained votes in recent elections following the 2015-2016 migrant crisis, with large numbers of refugees from North Africa and Arab world landing in Greece and Turkey and walking to Hungary, Austria and Germany. Merkel's handling of the crisis with acceptance of a million refugees in 2015-2016 unsettled European and German politics. Why? One way of looking at it is that in the same way that the U.S. took in Chinese imported goods ending in the Trump tariffs war, at some point it just becomes too big to handle. That ended up at $1 billion a day in imports from China when president Trump called it off and accused Obama Democrats, Bush Republicans, of betraying the country. Putting it into perspective Germany with one fourth of the population of the U.S. took in about twice the number of refugees in just one year 2015-2016 that the U.S. took in 10 years 2005-2015. The U.S. took in 675,000 immigrants between 2005-2015. This is as if the U.S. took in something like 20 million immigrants in a short period of 1 year on an equivalent basis- though the cultural impact is even greater in a nation like Germany that is like Japan an historically immigrant averse nation. All this happened too quickly for Germany to handle for its fragile cultural fabric. Much of the initial outpouring of support and positive sentiment came from the sense of having gone through World War II and the refugees in that and the early post war period, the need to return in the same spirit support Germany had received. Over time it eroded support for the Christian Democratic Union and Merkel. That Merkel could have done this is itself a small miracle. Now the rebuilding has to begin. Adenauer's CDU and the socialist SPD party of Willy Brandt now have less than 50% support, only with the Greens Party do they make up 50%. The question now is can the CDU, and the SPD which has fallen to 14% in elections, make it back and what kind of future makeup political parties will have in Germany, how the social fabric can be restored. AKK's achievement is to mend relations between the liberal Merkel wing of the CDU and conservatives from Bavaria (CSU) over immigration.  Candidates for CDU leadership are Armin Laschet, Jens Spahn, and Friedrich Merz. Laschet premier of North Rhine-Westphalia has Merkel's support. Looking back too much attention was taken up by the euro crisis, and too little was done in the areas of infrastructure, inequality gaps, education, child care, under Merkel's leadership and of the preceding SPD years, much like what happened under Bush and Obama administrations in the U.S. where wars, economic crises led to neglect on issues that affect lives of ordinary working families. ...

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This NYT analysis of fund raising by the Republican and Democratic parties for the 2020 election campaign shows Republicans hardly raising any money from people with incomes over 250,000 and very little from incomes over $200,000 with most funding coming from the base white working class and lower and upper middle class. For Democrats fund raising is significant at the levels of income over $200,000. Geographically the Democrats get most of their funding from the east and west coast areas.  This reflects the changes in the parties starting in the the 2008 elections when higher income groups in software, finance, and in professions of law and medicine and Silicon Valley tech shifted to Democrats. The Democrats also held onto minority votes. In 2016 this changed with a sharp turn with tech on the west coast and finance professionals on the east coast shifting to the Democrats. The PPP agreement under Obama favored tech over the auto industry, and renewal fossil fuels such as solar were favored over the oil industry and fracking. In 2016 this helped shift the votes in Michigan and Pennsylvania to Republicans. Older manufacturing industries, oil and fracking were supported by Republicans who pushed back against ceding global dominance in manufacturing to China. By 2020 these changes are now entrenched with white working class voters in industries decimated and communities destroyed by foreign imports mainly from China, supporting Republicans. Republicans under Trump have made regaining the manufacturing leadership of the U.S. that was the situation after World War II, a top priority for the U.S.  The minority vote shifted with Hispanics moving towards Republicans to a much larger degree than before. The urban rural divide is similar to Europe where the similar impact of foreign imports mainly from China have destroyed older industries and led to sharp decline in older towns and communities outside major cities. This is the situation facing the U.S. and Britain, France, Italy Spain, and Poland. Germany as a manufacturing country dependent on exports is also affected but to a lesser degree. The unwholesome aspect of this is that the larger urban areas are divorced from the rest of the country  and rural small towns, smaller cities. In some form reintegration has to take place. The vast majority of the working class classified in today's terminology as the less educated lacking a college degree and white are  paradoxically with Republicans, and the wealthy professionals and industries in software, finance with Democrats. Nothing makes this more evident than a quick look at the map of the U.S. with blue on the opposite coasts for Democrats and mostly red in between and in the south. This is unprecedented in American history. A rising tide that lifts all boats in the U.S. and the return of the U.S. to the position it held after World War II could change this in the next decade. ...

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This report in the WSJ shows in an extraordinary detailed way going back 20 years how under each administration Bush, Obama, Trump in the US and Angela Merkel in Germany, Hollande and Macron in France, the serious differences in the world view and thinking between president Putin of Russia and western leaders were simply ignored or overlooked. Mr. Putin truly believed in Ukraine and Russia as one people, researched history on his own and wrote an essay that made him more convinced than ever about his views that separation of Ukraine from Russia was an artificial construct, more so in the last two years.  By integrating the German and European Union economies with Russia and China without coming to terms with the large separation in views of the world and ignoring Russian views because of its economic size as an economy the size of France, both Merkel and Obama's policies failed to grasp what was happening. This report shows in much detail each event since 2005 that led to increasing distrust by Putin of western leaders.  The integration of the economies of the west and the integration of supply chains with China and Russia continued even after serious concerns had developed during the Trump administration. US and European business was operating on a completely different path not taking this into account in any way. It was only in the Biden administration and after the election of Scholz in Germany in 2021 that the situation was becoming clear. On the other side Ukraine itself and its people had changed in ways that were not anticipated by people in Germany or Russia, much less the leaders in Germany or Russia. There was a genuine sense that Ukraine was a national identity leading to the Ukraine resistance and a prolonged conflict. Brendan Simms, Cambridge historian shows how Europe went through conflicts and wars in its history as each of the major European nations sought advantage from 1453 to the present in his book, "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." Small gains were made in these wars that dragged on bringing great suffering to ordinary people.These wars involved England, France, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia. ...

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This editorial in the Economist says Spain's economy has recovered to pre crisis levels by 2018 with growth at 3 percent. It says Spain had a bigger crisis than Italy and took stronger measures under prime minister Rajoy to fix problems in its banking system, address the housing crisis, and unemployment. Italy's steps by comparison were timid and faltering. Mr. Rajoy had his problems including corruption scandals in his party and a poor handling of the Catalan drive for independence. Yet Spain owes muchas gracias to Rajoy for his leadership in bringing Spain out of the housing and economic crisis, and for running the country for two and a half years after losing his majority in parliament.  Another difference with Italy is the generally favorable attitude to immigration for all parties. Of the newer parties Ciudadanos remains at the centre and the Podemos party remains to the left in politics, as part of the populist changes in Spain during the economic crisis. The new government of Pedro Sanchez has a positive attitude to immigrants and to women, with the largest number of women in the cabinet of any European country. ...

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Edward Chancellor reviews the book by Greg Steinmetz on Jacob Fugger of Augsburg, Germany. Fugger (1459-1525) grandfather and brothers established textile factories in Venice and Northern Italy, and made money in the textile trade. Fugger added to this by loaning money to mine owners and buying shares in mines near Salzburg, and establising new mines in Hungary and other parts of central Europe for copper and silver. Augsburg was a free Imperial City and a center of trade with Italy. Hugger financed the election of Charles V of Spain as Holy Roman Emperor, and benefitted from the Hapsburg dynasty's dominant role in Europe made possible through strategic marraiges. This was a period of transition from feudalism to a period of free cities and merchants, of early stage of capitalism. Augsburg briefly holds a new role as the trade and centre of activity shifts from Italy and the Mediterranean to the Netherlands, Britain and the Atlantic. It is also a period of tumult in Europe as the Protestant Reformation and Luther are active in this period, the peasants are also staging revolts for their rights, and merchants are increasing their role through trade and finance....

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Questions raised by analysts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the European Policy Center in Brussels, about the lack of leadership from Chancellor Merkel of Germany and EU leaders in addressing swiftly the crisis facing Greece and countries in southern Europe. Facing voter displeasure in Germany Merkel stalled in the hope of delaying adecision till after a regional election in Germay on May 9. In the process Merkel turned a smaller crisis in Greece into a crisis facing many countries in Europe including Spain, Portugal and Italy, and a crisis for the euro currency. French member of Parliament Juvin, told the French press: "are they waiting for the collapse of the euro?" One sticking point is that the Lisbon Treaty has no provisions for coordinating fiscal policies, and Germany did not insist earlier on oversight of Greek statistics which were generally known to be false since the 1990's. Another French member of the European Parliament, Le Grip, insisted on the need for a new European economic government, and the creation of new institutional responsibilites. The problem lies in the feeling in countries like Germany not to cede sovereignty on economic matters to a European economic body. ...

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The trial of 12 Catalan leaders for a botched secession attempt begins in Spain's Supreme Court. It is being broadcast live on Spanish television. 

The minority government of prime minister Pedro Sanchez could be toppled on Feb. 13, 2019 as parliament votes on the national budget. Sanchez needs the votes of Catalan legislators in Congress to pass the budget vote. Failure to win support could lead to a fall of this minority government and fresh elections, continuing the political uncertainty in Spain.

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Spain's 2015 general election leads to the likelihood of a coalition from the centre right or the centre left parties. The conservative Partido Popular lost its parliamentary majority and won 123 seats as the largest party in the new parliament. The centre right have 163 seats, the centre left have 159 seats, leading to an inconclusive result with both sides seeking to form a new coalition government. Years of austerity policies under prime minister Rajoy and high unemployment of about 20% hurt the ruling party, even though the economy has recovered from the worst effects of the housing crisis and is growing at 3%.

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People in Poland, Hungary, and other countries in Central Europe took out mortgages in Swiss Francs. The jump in the value of the Franc means their payments go up increasing economic pain in these countries. In Hungary the government of Viktor Orban has converted most franc loans into local currency forint loans at favorable rates and this will now be seen as a remarkably positive move. Poland has a growing economy compared to Hungary with borrowers in francs with higher incomes than Hungary, yet with 37% of the homeowner loans in Swiss Francs political parties are looking for support before elections offering to shift these loans into the local currency. Banks in Poland are well capitalized and are not likely to be seriously affected.

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This article in the Guardian points to the differences within Catalonia about the independence referendum planned for October 2017. The Spanish government says it will prevent a referendum from taking place. In a symbolic poll that took place 3 years ago in 2014, only 2.3 million of 5.4 million Catalan eligible voters took part. Sentiment is in favor of self-determination but only among less than half of Catalans, as most Catalans would not come out to vote. The Spanish government says the referendum would be a violation of the constitution.

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 Harris's role for the Border was limited to telling Central American migrants to stay home. Much of the migration was a result of wars started in the Reagan years in Central American states of Nicaragua and San Salvador. This destabilized the region and led to gangs taking over parts of the country in San Salvador and entrenching Castro style regime in Nicaragua, leading to outward migration of young people. As this report points out Harris was supposed to take on decades of such misguided policies in Central America in a few months. A drought hit agricultural coffee regions of Guatemala increasing migration. Her role instead was to ensure several wins. Win No.1 to generate stability setting up the peaceful transfer of power in Guatemala, singling out corrupt regimes. Win No. 2 to generate jobs. US AID and IFDC loans were increased, foreign investment attracted to generate 250,000 jobs. Win No. 3 the increased stability led to gradually declining migration from Central America. What replaced it was Venezuela. And that is a repeat story of Reagan style wars in Central America. Under the Trump Administration the US did not take up the Monroe Doctrine and act directly to support a stable fairly elected government in Venezuela, an obvious solution. Instead going half way- destabilizing the government but then left it on its own. The result about a third of the population leaving the country in these years to Colombia and other parts of Latin America in a immense humanitarian tragedy.  In 2023 Venezuelans not Guatemalans entered at the US Border in large numbers, most of them middle class families that left Venezuela after hyperinflation and mismanagement of the economy. Realizing the danger by January 2024 Biden negotiated with Senate Minority Leader McConnell and his Republican representative Senator Lankford to pass legislation in the Senate closing the Border. All that was needed was the House to act and 30 years of Border problem would be solved.This was blocked in the House by new Speaker Mike Johnson on advice from former president Trump who chose to use the issue in the 2024 election. Biden then used his executive powers to close the Border leading to lower numbers of migrants under Biden by July 2024 than under Trump. Migration Border Czar was never a term used by Democrats in the Obama and Biden years. Biden who also served in a role given migration as one of the issues to handle under Obama, had this as only one of his assignments. Biden played more important roles in foreign policy with his experience as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for decades. Border policy was made by president Obama and his advisers. The same is true of Harris, Border policy being done by president Biden and his advisers. Similar to Biden's role as VP Harris was given assignment to cover foreign policy and was the US representative at 3 Munich Security Conferences in 2021-2024 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Chancellor Scholz of Germany said of Harris last week that he had full confidence in Harris as both competent and experienced. ...

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This editorial in the Economist says Britain's economic recovery will not be complete until interest rates are well above zero and productivity growth is established. Without productivity growth and growth in wages, both lacking in the economic recovery since 2009, tax revenues will not be enough to reduce the deficit, requiring more spending cuts. That means the Bank of England will not raise interest rates, keeping a situation of no rate changes prevailing since March 2009 when the central bank cut rates by 0.5%. In the current situation the Bank of England is not expected to raise rates till 2016, only after the U.S. Federal Reserve increases rates to avoid appreciation in the pound and further deflationary pressure, according to Goldman Sachs. With inflation currently at zero, following the drop in oil prices, and 10% appreciation in the pound since mid 2013 making imports cheaper, there is little pressure to increase interest rates. In 2011 inflation with rising food and energy prices reached 5.2% , but the Bank of England did not raise rates because of the eurozone economic crisis affecting growth. Only since 2013 has economic growth picked up with 1.2 million jobs created since the beginning of 2013, bringing unemployment down from a high of 8.5% in 2011 to 5.6% in May 2015. Throughout the recovery productivity growth is falling behind- 2014 productivity measured by output per hour worked was 1.3% lower than in 2011, and 14% below the pre-crisis trend, according to the Economist....

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Marina Force of the WSJ gives this excellent report on Carles Puidgdemont, head of the Catalan party that is holding a referendum for independence from Spain in October 2017. The referendum is to be held on Oct. 1, 2017, and will be held in a tense region divided by pro and anti independence supporters, with the central government of Spain declaring the referendum illegal, and police obstructing voters. This has pushed Spain into a major crisis, as Puigdemont says he will declare independence after the vote, and the possibility that many voters may not have voted at all in this tense atmosphere. Here Marina describes the recent history of Spain that dates back to the period under General Franco's dictatorship when state rights in the Basque region, in Catalan region and in the northern region in Galicia, as well as other regions, were suppressed. Today there is regional autonomy and the languages in the regions such as Catalan are used in the autonomous regions. Prime minister Rajoy is from the Galicia region. His family suffered under Franco's dictatorship as he points out in his book- Mariano Rajoy, En confianza, Mi vida y mi proyecto de cambio para Espana. As a result Catalan leader Arturo Mas and other Spanish leaders including Rajoy from Galicia worked hard to establish autonomy for all the regions in Spain, including use of the local language in Valencia, Catalonia and the Basque region, a variation of Spanish. As in Scotland for most of the period after the end of the Franco dictatorship in the nineties, this focus on regional autonomy was seen as a big step forward. Puigdemont is journalist who was editor in chief of a Catalan newspaper in the 1980's. In 2006 he was elected to the Catalan parliament. In 2013 he was elected mayor of Girona, a city just north of Barcelona. It was in this period that the movement for Catalan independence moved forward setting the stage for the 2014 referendum with 81% voting for independence. In 2016 pro-independence parties won a majority in the Catalan parliament. This set the stage for a confrontation with the central government in Madrid that is now taking place. ...

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The increasing likelihood that Greece will exit the eurozone. This happens as the New Democracy party fails to form a coalition and the other parties are offered a chance to form a coalition. The other opposition parties gained far more votes than New Democracy and Pasok in the elections and some parties favor Greece exiting the eurozone. New elections will be held in June if no government is formed. The current government of Lucas Papademos says it needs an extra year to complete the privatizations, public sector layoffs and improvements in tax collection, giving Greece till 2015 to get the job done. As a senior advisor to Papademos, George Pagoulatos, put it: "There is a sense that Greece has passed its pain threshold... Greece needs some oxygen to breathe." Both the Ifo Institute's Sinn and John Taylor see the exit from the eurozone as the best option for Greece, as interest rates on Greek debt have been reduced and Greek banks recapitalized with the March 2012 bailout. John Taylor, WSJ, Feb. 22, 2012, A Better Grecian Bailout/ WSJ, Feb. 17, 2012, Interview: Ifo's Sinn: In Greece's Interest to Leave the Eurozone.This may already be the preparation the IMF, ECB, EU, and the Greece government has laid out as an option if the voters in Greece overwhelmingly rejected further austerity. This now appears to have happened and far more quickly than politicians in Athens, Brussels and Berlin had anticipated....

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The Economist warns in this editorial and cover issue that if Germany and the European Union do not act fast the Greek crisis could have a Lehmann like effect on Europe's banking systems, with a sovereign default. This would threaten the weaker economies of Portugal, Spain and Italy. As Simon Johnson has done on the pages of the New York Times, the Economist calls the German government and Chancellor Angela Merkel's handling of this crisis filled with ineptitude. Instead of leading the German people and giving a true account of things she followed public opinion- to see that Greece was punished for its mistakes and to provide a lukewarm show of support. A true account would have shown how Germay has gained from the euro, the huge portion of Greek debt that German banks hold, and the losses that the government would have to step in and avert in its banking system if Greece defaulted. Waiting till after a big regional election in Germany on May 9, was to show a lack of grasp of how such a crisis could explode if Greece in the meantime was shut out of capital markets (yield on Greek bonds shot up to 20%). Helping Greece was more in Germany's interest than an act of charity that public opinion in Germany seems to think it is. Other mistakes the Economist cites are- the idea that going to the IMF would be humiliating thus not bringing in the IMF actively much earlier. In the view of these experts it is the ineptitude that led to the loss of confidence in financial markets that now necessitates a much larger aid package for Greece, from $60 billon to $150 billion. The other is to have a slow decision making machinery in the Eurozone and knowing this not to have taken more aggressive action. Suggestions from the Economist as an adhoc measure- set up a single crisis management committee to make quick decisions. Set up a firewall between Greece and the other states like Spain and Italy so that contagion does not spread, with these countries also being shut out of financial markets at some future date if the situation deteriorates. The other is that the European governments should setup inter-governmental liquidity lines, and the European Central Bank act using the new arrangements....