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Central Europe and the Swiss franc: Currency risk
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People in Poland, Hungary, and other countries in Central Europe took out mortgages in Swiss Francs. The jump in the value of the Franc means their payments go up increasing economic pain in these countries. In Hungary the government of Viktor Orban has converted most franc loans into local currency forint loans at favorable rates and this will now be seen as a remarkably positive move. Poland has a growing economy compared to Hungary with borrowers in francs with higher incomes than Hungary, yet with 37% of the homeowner loans in Swiss Francs political parties are looking for support before elections offering to shift these loans into the local currency. Banks in Poland are well capitalized and are not likely to be seriously affected.
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Hungary's story since the fall of the Berlin Wall- a 36% decline in the forint relative to the Swiss Franc since 2004 and half of all mortgage loans denominated in Swiss Francs
11/13/2014
The experience of borrowers since Hungary joined the European Union in 2004 has not been a happy one. Borrowers with little knowledge of the risks in currency markets borrowed in Euros and Swiss Francs. By 2006 growth slowed, unemployment increased, and the economy stuck with litle or no growth since 2006 is smaller now than in that year. The Orban government has taken steps to reduce monthly payments with an increase in the total amount owed, converting loans to forints, and imposing about $3.5 billion in compensation costs to borrowers on the banks- relief that still leaves borrowers in debt that may never be paid off and unable to borrow for other needs. This has increased the popularity of the Orban government, yet no one has emerged a winner. It has also soured Hungary's experience with free markets.
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Borrowers in Hungary Learn Tough Lessons
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Swiss Move Roils Global Markets
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Hungary Drops Internet Tax Plan After Public Outcry
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Borrowers in Hungary Learn Tough Lessons
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Economist 01/18/2015
Hungary's economy
06/04/2010
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Hungary Premier Credits His 'Unorthodox' Course for Economic Rebound
Wall Street Journal 07/19/2013
Hungary Warns of Greek-Style Crisis
New York Times 06/04/2010
Hungary, Trying to Calm Markets, Works on Economic Plan to Boost Credibility
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2010
Wall Street Journal 08/02/2014
Borrowers in Hungary Learn Tough Lessons
New York Times 11/13/2014
Central Europe and the Swiss franc: Currency risk
Economist 01/18/2015
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