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The EU statistics agency Eurostat reported that the eurozone countries GDP declined by 0.3% in the 4th quarter compared to the third quarter of 2011. The decline for Germany was 0.2%. For Italy the decline was 0.7% over the prior quarter according to Istat, the Italian statistics agency. Spain 0.3% decline over the prior quarter. France experienced 0.2% growth over the prior quarter with larger exports by Airbus and more business investment. Italy plans cuts to military spending reducing aircraft purchases, buying 90 instead of 131 Lockheed F-35 fighter jets. Only France and Slovakia showed quarterly growth.

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Simon Nixon points out that most of the 490 billion in euros borrowed by European banks under the Long Term Refinancing Operation of the ECB in Dec. 2011 is for rolling over maturing debt, rather than buying of government bonds. European banks financing needs based on figures from Barclay's Capital are over 300 billion euros for the 1st quarter of 2012. This suggests huge demand for the Long Term Financing Operation in the next quarter. For Spain and Italy the newly created lending facility should lead to higher bond buying by small and midsized Spanish banks and Italian banks, as this will boost their profitability. Spanish bonds yield 5% and Italian bonds yield 6.5% and loans from the ECB using the bonds as collateral are available at 1% for three years, which makes this an opportunity for these banks to boost profitability. The proportion of government bonds of Spain of Spanish banks bank assets is 7% and the figure for Italian banks is 9%. Nixon says an increase of this ratio by three percentage points by Spanish banks would created additional demand for Spanish government bonds of 45 billion euros, which is a third of the issuance for 2012....

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The governments of France, Belgium, Italy and Spain annonced a 15 day ban on the short selling of certain financial stocks and derivatives after deep declines in French banking stocks on August 10, 2011.

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In a major turnaround yields on the 10 year bonds of Italy and Spain declined significantly on Nov. 29, 2012 to 4.55% for Italy and 5.32% for Spain. Risks remain especially if Spain needs a bailout from the EU in early 2013, or Spanish yields rise with an increase in the bonds issued to 125 billion euros for 2013, say analysts.

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S&P drops France's credit rating one notch from its AAA credit rating on Jan. 13, 2011. Italy, Spain and Portugal were also downgraded.

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The ECB's Long Term Refinancing Operation is working as planned with the lowering of borrowing costs for Italy and Spain. Spanish government two year bond yields are down to 3.3% in January 2012 from a high of over 6%. Italian government two year bond yields have declined to 3.9% in Jan 2012 from a high of 7.8% in November 2011. Experts say the response is much more positive than the market was expecting. Morgan Stanley anaysts expect the banks to borrow extensively when the ECB makes new loans under this program in February 2012, which they estimate could reach 400 billion euros. Spanish banks are expected to borrow 15-45 billion euros to use for buying Spanish government debt, which would take up about half of the debt Spain needs to issue in 2012. For the banks the 3 year loans at 1% interest with flexible terms for collateral given to the ECB, offers a way to earn higher interest rates on sovereign government debt of their national governments.

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Italian prime minister Renzi faces a tough fight as Italy votes on December 4, 2016,on a constitutional reform package that transfers more powers to the central government in Rome. It would reduce the size and power of the Senate, the upper house, making it easier to pass legislation, and reduce the powers of the regional governments. The Beppe Grillo led Five Star Movement in Italy opposes Renzi on the referendum. If it fails Renzi will resign and his centre left government will be replaced by a temporary government of technocrats till a new election is called.

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Speaking at the annual meeting of Italy's banking association on July 11, 2012, prime minister Mario Monti calls the struggle he is leading to change the economic performance of Italy, and especially against structural vices in the economy, "a very tough war." He added that the plan to reduce Italy's borrowing rates with the agreement to use the ESM or EFSF, the EU's rescue fund, "must be consolidated both in its substance and the way it is communicated." Bank of Italy governor, Ignazio Visco, said the spread between Italian and German bonds and the borrowing rates approaching 7% for Italy compared to about zero for Germany and France, were "far above what would be justified by the fundamentals of our economy." Deputy finance minister, Vittorio Grilli, is taking over the role of finance minister which Monti had assumed earlier. Monti will lead a new economic and financial policy committee which includes Mr. Grilli and development minister Corrado Passera.

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Compared to precrisis peak in GDP for 2006 the economies of Germany and France are up about 3%, and 1% respectively, with Italy down by close to 10%, and the eurozone down about 2%. Inadequate demand is the largest problem for eurozone companies as the GDP for eurozone increased barely in the 3rd quarter 2014, increase of 0.6%.

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The Bank of Japan's plans to buy 100 trillion yen of Japanese government debt in 2 years to fight deflation is having a positive effect on the eurozone economies. Japanese investors are buying eurozone sovereign debt. J.P. Morgan estimates the increase in investments for overseas bonds by Japanese investors in 2013 at 45 billion euros. This is lowering the yields on the sovereign bonds of France, Netherlands and Austria to record lows and lowering the yields of sovereign bonds of Italy and Spain. The 10 year yields on Italy's government bonds declined to 4.326%. Yields on 10 year Japanese government bonds was 0.514% on April 8, 2013.

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The ECB's second phase of the Long Term Financing Operation provides 800 European banks with 529 billion euros in 3 year loans at 1%. The impact of the first phase in Dec. 2011 with 489 billion euros in loans was greater on borrowing rates for Italy and Spain than it was this time. The larger number of banks participating in Feb, 2012- 800 banks compared to 523 banks- with many smaller banks included, is expected to provide a boost for lending to small and midsize businesses in Europe. The total net amount of liquidity added as a result of the operation in the two phases is expected to be 520 billion euros, as some of the loans were a transfer of existing loans to the longer term 3 year loans provided under the Long Term Financing Operation. The operation has helped bring confidence to the European banking system and will help the recapitalization of European banks.

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Prime minister Renzi of Italy resigns after defeat in a referendum to change the constitution. Renzi had said he would resign if there was a "no" vote on constitutional changes to make it possible to pass further reforms. The results show the "yes" vote with about 41% of the vote, and 59% saying "no." About 65% of 47 million registered voters voted. The referendum called for cutting the size of the upper house Senate eliminating some constitutional bodies, and increasing powers at the federal level. Renzi may have made the mistake of making the vote for or against constitutional change a vote for his democratic left party, and not understanding the depth of public skepticism of established parties. Parties such as 5 Star M5S  have appealed to a public skeptical of how economic reforms would help bring more prosperity to the middle class, and a desire to try out new options. Virginia Raggi of M5S was elected mayor of Rome recently and Renzi's referendum move similar to the way prime minister Cameron moved for a referendum on an old issue of euroskeptisim, may have failed to grasp grassroots changes. The irony is that in 2014 elections to the European parliament Renzi's democratic left party won 40% of the vote and was seen at the time as a success, and the same size vote in the referendum is seen as a failure. In a referendum all other parties votes are added together from right to left parties and new parties. In the Brexit vote the Labor party "no" vote including Labor voters who never voted added to the votes of Brexit supporters and the newer UKIP party giving Brexit the slight edge needed. The singular feature of the trend is that working class voters are combining with right leaning voters to upset established parties, in the midwestern U.S., in the north of England, and in the north of France. In the medium to long run this means the left parties are likely to move to realign themselves with their base of support. ...

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Socialist Party in Spain increases its share of the vote to 29%, and emerges as the largest party to form a government with the socialist leaning Podemos party in 2019 elections. It does this by returning to its labour base and working class roots. It pitches a platform of worker's rights, higher taxes on wealthy, environmental roots, issues important to its social democratic roots. The WSJ cites a 57 year old employee of Spain's health service Antonio Benitez, living in Andalusia who says people have a hard time making ends meet, and its about time socialist parties speak of the main pillars of being socialist, without all the deviations to the centre. As free market thinking entered the mindset of leaders in the UK such as Tony Blair and Gerhard Scroder in Germany, Clinton in the U.S., the shift began towards economic efficiency in the tradeoff with equality and social justice. This was aggravated by the effects of international trade and technology in worsening income disparities and unsettling communities in traditional manufacturing. This trend is now being reversed as Socialist parties or Labour allied parties in the UK, Spain,and increasingly in the U.S., take a new position different from the past. A political scientist at the Free University of Amsterdam says its like these parties got hit on the head and now decided to go back to core values around equality, reducing disparities, social justice and the environment. Jeremy Corbyn of the Labour Party in Britain increased Labour's vote in the 2017 elections to 40% up from 30% in 2015. Italy's Socialists won 41% of the vote in 2014 European elections, moved to the centrist positions that made firing workers easier, pension overhauls raising retirement age, leading to losing half its support with 21% ahead of European elections in 2019. Pedro Sanchez of Spain raised the minimum wage by 22% before winning the 2019 elections compared to his predecessor Socialist premier Zapatero who is reported to have said "cutting taxes is left wing." Now workers rights and higher taxes on corporation are on the agenda.  ...

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The new government of prime minister Enrico Letta takes office in Italy in April 2013 following the reelection of president Giorgio Napolitano. Letta is 46 years old and represents a new generation in Italian politics. He is a former Christian Democrat and member of the European parliament. Letta studied at the University of Pisa, and did graduate work in international affairs. In the 1990's he was president of the European Young Christian Democrats. He was associated with Beniamino Andreatta, a Christian Democrat economist and founder of research group Arel. Letta was his chief of staff when he became foreign minister in 1993. In 1998 Letta was minister for European Affairs, and the following year Industry minister. In 2009 Letta became deputy secretary of the Democratic party. The firm European connections, a good sense of how Italians feel about the economic changes, a connection with young people, and his grasp of the needs of business and labor in improving Italian competitiveness, make him an excellent choice after the inconclusive parliamentary elections in Italy. ...

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The U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Commitee takes a position of pause and wait as it decides in March 2012 not to take any new further bond buying stimulus measures. There is uncertainty in equity markets about the effect this will have on equity prices. During the last two pauses in 2010 and 2011 the equity markets experienced downturns after withdrawal of bond buying measures by the Fed, leading to Fed action with QE 1 and QE 2 followed by a surge in equity prices and the S&P at over 1400. At the peak during the 2001 and 2008 dot-com and housing propelled booms the S&P reached over 1500. At this rate the curve for U.S. equity prices for the 2008-2012 period resembles a repeat of a narrow steep V shaped curve with only a 7% climb in April 2012 needed to reach the 1500 point in the S&P 500 average at which the previous two booms in prices ended up in a bust. John Taylor, Stanford economist, in a separate op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on March 29, 2012, called for a change in the mandate of the U.S. Federal Reserve for a more rule based policy because of the dangers of repeated boom and bust periods in the U.S. economy as a result of ultra loose monetary policies. The problem at this point in April 2012 is that profits of companies are not expected by analysts to come in strongly in the second quarter, with a slightly improving unemployment picture, expected upward pressures on oil prices from the Iranian situation, eurozone debt problems in Spain and Italy, and slowing growth in China, India and Brazil. These fundamentals do not support an S&P at the levels seen during the height of the last two booms of 2000-2001 and 2007-2008....

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The June 28, 2012 EU deal is expected to increase the role of the European Central Bank in addressing the eurozone crisis with powers of banking regulation and supervision and direct capital aid to Spanish banks. Mario Draghi's experience with the Bank of Italy and in dealing with different Italian governments has prepared him for the difficult task of making sure governments in the eurozone make responsible decisions for eurozone finances.

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So far the Italian government has already recovered $15 billion for 2011 in its fight against tax evasion. The fight includes an advertising campaign depicting tax evasion as anti-social activity and vigorous enforcement by tax officials and the financial police. Italy has already banned cash transactions to reduce possibilities for evading taxes. This problem is severe in Italy because the underground economy is about 17.5% of GDP. An estimated $150 billion is lost to the Italian treasury from tax evasion. As a result Italy has a chronic budget deficit problem and is not able to make necessary investments in improving competitiveness to keep up with other countries. This may be one of the lasting achievements of the new administration of Mario Monti, along with its efforts to change the way the public thinks about other issues including labor laws that place large burdens on small companies in hiring practices. Italians sense the need to change the way they think about taxes because this is one way to reduce the burden of austerity measures- higher tax revenues could enable lowering taxes. It would also enable investing in improving competitiveness that would the economy grow and provide the jobs to reduce the high unemployment rate among young workers. One of the lasting positive aspects of the eurozone crisis is the change in the way the people and society think about many issues....

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Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, ratified the fiscal pact agreement of eurozone countries of December 2011 on June 29, 2012. A two thirds majority was needed to approve the pact and the rescue fund called the European Financial Stability Facility or European Stability Mechanism. To get the opposition Social Democrats support chancellor Merkel had to agree to a "growth pact" at the June 2012 EU summit, a condition made by the opposition. Facing persistent German opposition in the negotiations for short term measures to allow the rescue fund to buy Spanish and Italian bonds directly in private markets and give direct aid to Spanish and Italian banks, prime minister Monti of Italy and prime minister Rajoy of Spain as a last resort told chancellor Merkel they would block the EU growth measures. It is at that point that Merkel made the concessions to allow direct aid by the rescue fund. Blocking the growth measures would have blocked the approval of the fiscal pact which Merkel had negotiated in December 2011, as the opposition Social Democrats would then withdraw their support. It is this manouevre that finally achieved a breakthrough in the marathon 14 hour negotations between Mario Monti and Angela Merkel, which Monti described as "hard and tense" but "worth it." ...

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The EU has pushed the date for France to reduce its deficit to 3% once before -to 2015 giving France 2 more years. French president Hollande faced with unemployment at 11% in March 2014, has set the task of convincing Brussels to allow more time after losing badly in local elections and facing opposition to continued austerity in his own party. France is expected to come up with a plan to present to the EU for cutting public spending by 50 billion euros over 3 years 2015-2017. In the televised address on March 31, Hollande put the priority on growth, saying "Its not a question of cutting spending for the sake of it." After election in May 2012, Hollande and prime minister Rajoy of Spain went to Brussels together to push for a growth oriented policy in the eurozone. This time he has support from Socialist Party leader in Italy, Matteo Renzi, who is also introducing growth oriented policies to reduce unemployment and boost the economy. The two leaders faceoff with Angela Merkel on the need to relax austerity policies in the eurozone....

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Recent trade data show improvements in the current account deficit of Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Ireland is in surplus since the second half of 2010. Spain has reduced its deficit to 3% with a 12.5% increase in exports. Deutsche Bank reports show the aggregate current account deficit of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy going from a weighted average 10.9% of GDP in the 2nd quarter of 2008 to 4.3% by the 3rd quarter of 2011. This provides a ray of hope that the rebalancing needed in Europe can happen without putting a large burden on falling wages relative to Germany.

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A decision reached at the G-2- meeting in Cannes requires Italy to allow the IMF to look at its books every 3 months to ensure that a $75 billion austerity package is being implemented. This comes as the general feeling is that prime minister Berlusconi's government lacks credibility on this issue. Chancellor Merkel of Germany disclosed that China and Russia do not want to commit funds to the rescue effort unless there is some assurance - such as the IMF overseeing the EFSF financing facility- that there will be no losses. Japanese government spokesman said Japan was also concerned about losses, especially if the EU would use the money to prop up insolvent banks. This comes as Italy's borrowing costs have increased to new highs in November 2011.

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European banks borrowed 529 billion euros from the ECB in Feb. 2012 at interest rate of 1% for three years.This follows the lending by the ECB of 489 billion euros to European banks in December 2011. The total lending now exceeds $1 trillion under the European Central Bank's Long Term Financing Operation. It is designed to inject additional liquidity into the European banking system and shore up confidence in the economy. This time 800 banks applied for loans compared to the 523 banks in December. The actual amount of money going to banks is about 520 billion euros as many banks moved money from shorter term ECB loans to the three year loans under the Long Term Refinancing Operation. The operation helped bring down the borrowing rates on Italian and Spanish bonds- the rate on Italian 10 year bonds is down to 5.2% as of Feb. 28, 2012. Spanish and Italian banks were able to borrow at 1% from the ECB and buy Italian and Spanish bonds paying 5%. Intessa Sanpaolo bank in Italy doubled its borrowing to 24 billion euros. Smaller banks, including banks in Germany, participated in the February 2012 ECB lending, moving the number of banks up to 800 this time. VW's financing arm also borrowed under this operation so that it could provide credit to customers....

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Financial problems at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and the Italian government's role has introduced an element of uncertainty in the upcoming election in Italy. This has helped former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi recover in the polls. In Spain the newspaper El Pais published information from the ruling Partido Popular financial records showing hidden payments of 25,200 euros a year between 1997-2008. The opposition leaders asked for Rajoy's resignation and Rajoy did not address the matter directly till a joint appearence with Merkel in Berlin, where he said: " I have exactly the same strength, the same courage, and I am just as determined to continue as prime minister to overcome one of the most difficult situations in Spain of the last 30 years." Rajoy has a solid majority in parliament, with his party firmly behind him. This is unlikely to affect the political situation in Spain.

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A period of uncertainty in the eurozone after the inconclusive results of the Feb. 24, 2013 elections in Italy and the protest vote against austerity measures.

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Martin Feldstein says the eurozone summit of Dec. 9, 2011, was a failure because the plan for closer economic integration and financial discipline does not address the immediate problems of increasing bond yields for Italy and Spain. The summit concluded with decisions to set up a constitutional rule for each euro-zone country to balance its budget, take corrective action if the "structural" deficit exceeds 0.5% of GDP, and impose penalties if the actual deficit is larger than 3% of GDP. German chancellor Merkel wanted to have these rules put in a revised version of the EU Treaty, enforceable by the European Commission through the European Court of Justice. With Britain not agreeing to accept the plan without safeguards it requested, the new rules apply to the eurozone only, are not part of a revised Treaty and are not enforceable by EU institutions. Feldstein says it is wrong to have a common solution for Italy and Greece. For Greece the best option is to go back to the drachma, because of its shrinking economy and high debt load, and the need for a competitive currency. Italy, he says has a good chance of convincing investors to lower yields by taking strong steps. Italy's fiscal deficit is 4% of GDP, and the IMF projected Italy would have a balanced budget in 2013. How should Italy plan for the 300 billion euros of Italian bonds that need to be sold in the next 12 months? Feldstein says only 40 billion euros are needed to finance the projected budget deficit and for the rest is for existing bonds to be rolled over when they are due. Italy can repay the maturing debt with new bonds and not cash. And Italy can get the help of the IMF for some of the funds needed. On the issue of the ECB engaging in large scale buying of Italian and Spanish government bonds, Feldstein says Mario Draghi is doing the right thing by rejecting French proposals to do this, because this would be against ECB rules in the Maastricht Treaty to bailout governments and would reduce the incentive to make changes in Italy and Spain for lower deficits. ...