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Romney received the vote of 6 out of 10 seniors, and a majority of the over 40 age group. He did poorly with the 18-29 age group. He received only 8% of the black vote, 29% of the Hispanic vote and 25% of the Asian American vote. Republicans did well in the 2010 elections for the House of Representatives showing that a decent support from minorities and a sense of caring for ordinary voters including younger women is part of the winning mix for Republicans. The sharp positions on immigraton taken by Romney hurt him with Hispanics. His work at Bain Capital and perceptions about caring may have hurt him further with minorities and young people, creating a skewed picture in the national contest compared to contests for the House, Senate, and for Governors.

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U.S. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell tells the Washington Post in an exclusive interview that the dynamics surrounding the Trans Pacific Agreement pushed by president Obama have changed. He sees little prospect of it passing Congress before president Obama leaves office, and says it will be up to the next president to take it up after Obama leaves office in Jan. 2017. McConnell said that there is a lot of pushback all over the place. The Republican frontrunners Trump and Cruz both oppose the TPP, and all Democratic candidates including Hillary Clinton oppose it. In addition tobacco interests in McConnell's home state of Kentucky and pharmaceutical interests backing Senator Orrin Hatch, the Republican Finance chairman also oppose aspects of the negotiated deal. Labor unions, the automobile industry, environmental groups, and public interest groups, have strongly opposed provisions of the TPP that hurt workers and the public interest from the beginning, making it a risky proposition for Congressmen coming up for reelection in 2016. The divergence between the Republican establishment and the presidential front runners Trump and Cruz also have diluted support in Congress on the Republican side, making it a no win proposition....

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What Peter Bernstein, 90, remembers about the Great Depression. He says one was conscious of it evertime you walked outside on the stree, and people looked so threadbare. A mass of policy errors made the situation worse. And life was different then, more like a developing country as the USA went through the throes of urbanization and industrialization. Food took up about a quarter of disposable income compared to one tenth today. About 20% of the jobs were in agriculture in 1930, compared to 2% today. Less than half of the jobs were in service industries in 1930 compared to 75% today. And there were no food stamps, no unemployment insurance, no social security, no medicaid and medicare, none of the automatic income things that maintain income in the USA today for people out of work. Economist Robert Solow, 90, remembers growing up in Brooklyn, New York, and how his parents constantly worried about the next month's money. Paul Samuelson, another economist, 93, remembers attending classes at the University of Chicago during the depression years. And he says the economics lecures were on laissez-faire principles, which stopped making sense when he looked out the windows and from what he saw and heard on the street. Showing how out of touch policies were in the early years when the depression's worst chartacteristics took shape. However we are in the early stages of this, and it can still be very painful as people make it through the storms ahead. What will things look like as the nations unemployment rate hits 10% by 2010,? Which means things are much much worse in parts of the country like the midwest, where industries like the automobile industry depend on sales of vehicles which have seen sales go down from 15 million vehicles down to 9 million annualized in 2009, and may see further declines in 2010....

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In a time of relative prosperity in the first months after the boom years uptil 2007, in April 2008 to be specific, it is strange but true that food crisis is overshadowing the credit and housing crisis in the USA. At the G7 meeting, World Bank president, Zoellick, made a passionate statement about the crisis that is developing across Asia and developing countries elsewhere as food prices go through the roof. The World Bank and the IMF are stepping in, but the focus at the G7 meeting was on the US dollar and the world financial system. There have been serious problems about food shortages in Philippines, Indonesia, Haiti and Egypt, and even in other countries like China and India the increase in the price of rice by 146% makes for a serious food crisis. See the link to this.

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Jobs and Bezos as polymath leaders combining various influences. Jobs influenced by calligraphy, design, technology and Buddhism- bringing this together in a fluid intelligence to come up with new products. An adventurous spirit also characterizes Bezos and Jobs.

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The situation in Boise, Idaho. Home to many electronics and high tech companies like Micron Technology, Boise has weathered many downturns with unemployment rates well below the national average. This time things are not looking at all like previous downturns, as the unemployment rate in Boise climbed to 6% from 2.7%- it has already approached the national average of 6.7%, and is climbing. This suggests that high tech is also being affected seriously. Unemployment is expected to reach 8% in 2010, about the same as the national average forecast according to Moody's Economy.com. Goldman Sachs forecast is for the 2009 savings rate to be between 6% to 10% by 2009. Families like the Capps and Muirs that have young children or children in teenage years, are now serious savers, as profiled in this description. Down to getting their meat from a calf grown on a family farm in the Rocky mountain region where Boise is located, cutting their own wood in the mountains, buying 11 dozen eggs and freezing the insides of the eggs, buying on deals like $8 winter coats at Old Navy's store, bulk purchases of sugar and staples, growing and canning vegetables, handcrotcheting hats and scarfs for sale on Craigslist and local bazaars. All this from Mrs and Mr Muir including starting a Moneysavers Club, an email group of 30 people. The Muirs are a young family with their first child 5 years ago, who have stable employment, with Mr Muir working as a grape researcher for the state Dept of Agriculture, and his wife a dental assistant. But having taken 2 mortgages to buy their $144,000 home because they could not afford the 20% down payment. The wife's 401K of $3000 going for insulation and fence , and the husband's 401 K savings down to $13,000- reduced to half by the stock market. Suggesting poor decisions on housing debt with low savings for a couple in their thirties. The Capp couple in its forties has also low savings, having $40,000 in student loans, and credit card debt of $11,000 just paid off by using the $10,000 severance package for Mr Capp. The Capps are economizing on everything from skiing to using washable rags instead of paper towels. He worked as a field service engineer for Electroglass, a semiconductor equipment manufacturer based in San Jose which fired two thirds of its field service engineers, including Capp. They also used a $25,000 line of credit on their home to buy a used Toyota 4Runner. Considering their economizing skills, their responding to the downturn by paring down debt as quickly as possible, the information of Mrs Muir's skills at saving, the Capps continuing to use their 253,000 miles Toyota Corolla- these are families that were not crazy spenders, but just families that did not take saving seriously. The Capps made $65,000 from Mr Capps salary and $10,000 from Mrs Capps work at a mental health clinic (after getting a BS in psychology), yet their $2700 in savings suggests no effort was made to save for a rainy day. What this saving and economizing means is that restaurants are closing in large numbers in Boise. Retail stores, including electronics and clothing, are shuttering, All this is leading to higher unemployment, leading to saving measures like those used by the Capps and the Muirs. Meanwhile the numbers for savings accounts at Home Federal Bancorp in Boise, Idaho, a $725 million bank with 15 area branches, shows savings accounts up 26% in December from the previous year. And says the banks consumer banking head, the balances are increasing even as the unemployment rate is going up. Which suggests that Rodriguez and Goldman Sachs may be right (seee link) that the savings rate may reach 10%, and even higher, from what is happening in Boise. Views on currency valuation and the dollar as indicated in the analysis of the article about Rodriguez /Grantham/Scheiff, WSJ, January 2, 2009, may have to be separated from the analysis of what is happening in savings, as the weakening of the dollar relates also to the weakening of other economies and currencies. This steep upturn in saving is likely to affect Chinese exports severely and the Chinese economy. This also affect the German economy, as China imports less from Germany, especially its midsized manufacturers. See links. What is happening on saving, on the other hand, is very real, and happening before our very eyes....

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Blinder has analyzed occupation by occupation, which ones are most likely to be offshored and in what numbers. See the chart in the WSJ piece for the occupations that may be hit hardest, and which make up this 40 million that he sees being shifted to India and other places. See the Foreign Affairs piece in 2006- "Offshoring: The Next Industrial Revolution."

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The changing situation in the second half of 2013, in which U.S. stocks are trading at values less in correlation with the overall market and policies of the Federal Reserve and more in line with individual stock performance and prospects.

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Young people in India express their rising expectations for the next government- for better infrastructure, for jobs and better incomes and a better vision for the future. Narendra Modi, leader of the BJP party and chief minister of Gujarat state, gives the development and high growth rates in his state as an example for what can be achieved in the the rest of India.

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Ways in which PC's are sold in China and India. Close touch and eye to eye retailing across as many cities as possible through a large as possible retailing network is the way the Chinese and Indian market is described. But HP which lags Lenovo in China is the leading computer seller in India so there may be other things and factors at work. Still the markets in poor developing countries are going to be quite different in cultural and regional makeup and their needs may be quite different in what is most important to customers and what companies must do to respond to these needs to get established.

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Comparative effectiveness research will be conducted to evaluate what is the best treatment for any ailment or disease or health problem under the $1.1 billion allocated for this in the Stimulus Plan. What are the alternative methods of treatment, what is the effectiveness of each treatment, what are the comparative costs and so on. Is it better to treat neck pain with surgery or acombination ofphysical therapy, exercize and medications? If there is ablockage of arteries in the lower leg and leg pain, how does drugs and watchful waiting compare with surgery? For chronic heart failure how does home monitoring of blood pressure and weight and exercise in addition to medications provide an alternative route as opposed to just medications. Dr Fisher of Dartmouth Medical School cites these as examples of questions that can be asked in comparitive effectiveness research. The money will be available to the Health and Human Services Department and will be used over several years. About 15 federal employees will form a council to coordinate the research and advise President Obama and Congress on how to use the money. In 2007 the US spent $2.2 trillion, or 16% of GDP, on health care, and the Congressional Budget Office says it will grow to 25% of GDP at the rate its growing by 2025 if left to its own devices. ...

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Brooks points out that the best way to arrive at workable solutions is to take the best ideas from all sides of the political spectrum. The Republicans and the Democrats are too ideologically and politically driven and lack the imagination to come up with good solutions.

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Russia's deputy prime minister Vladislav Surkov resigns in May 2013. Putin reprimanded Surkov for not implementing presidential orders and decrees. For about 13 years Surkov has guided policies for a tightly managed political system which he called "sovereign democracy." He was deputy chief of staff to Putin and Medvedev for the last decade, and headed the Kremlin Department of Domestic Politics. After street protests following the 2011 parliamentary elections, Surkov had second thoughts about this, and called the protestors "our best people." He was transferred to his current job as deputy prime minister at that time, and sidelined by Putin in Dec. 2011.

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Unemployment in Fort Wayne, Indiana, is 6.8%, and 14,600 workers are looking for a job. Peters and Wessel talk to employers in this midwestern U.S. city and find that employers are looking for people in manufacturing with just the right set of skills, in other cases the benefits and parttime local school system jobs paying $8-$12 per hour with no benefits go unfilled because of the lower wage.

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The first budget of the Obama government makes a sharp swing away from decades of earlier policy, and puts America on a new direction focussed on priorities in education, health care for all, and energy. The 134 page doocument on the budget defines the governing principles and priorities of the new government. "This is the legacy that we inherit- a legacy of mismanagement and misplaced priorities, of missed opportunities and of deep, strutural problems ignored for too long," the document says. It declares that "government must lead" in contrast to Reagan's "government is not the solution, government is the problem." In contrast to "trickle down" policies of Reagan it proposes "trickle up" policies- shifting income from rich to the poor. It creates a $630 billion fund towards a national health insurance program built with the help of savings and cuts elsewhere. Government takes over most student lending, and dramatically expands Pell grants for poor college bound strudents, transforming it into something like Medicare that is automatic rather than approved each year by Congress. Businesses that emit carbon and heat trapping gases will have to purchase permits to do so starting in 2012. Hundreds of billions of dollars from these permits will pay for clean-energy technology and for tax credits for working couples. Income tax rates will rise for couples earning more than $250,000 beginning in 2011 and will have lower personal exemptions, lower itemized deductions, and higher capital gains tax rates. The estate tax will be preserved. Hedge fund and private equity managers wil have to pay income tax rates for that compensation as high as 39.6% after 2010, not the low 15% capital gains rate they pay now. The Defense Department would see a $20.4 billion boost or a 4% increase in 2010 over 2009, it will request an additional $75.5 billion in 2009 for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and an additional $130 billion for 2010. The budget is for $3.6 trillion for 2009, and projects a deficit of $1.75 trillion for 2009, or 12.3% of GDP- a level see in 1942 when the US entered World War II. Under optimistic White House assumptions for a strong economic rebound, the deficit would drop to $533 billion by 2013....

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US attack on Kharg Island but only military targets on March 13 2026. 1 to 1.5 million barrels a day flow through Kharg island amounting to 90% of Iran exports of oil. The terminal at Kharg Island can lad up to 7 million barrels a day and has storage for 30 million barrels. Three pipelines connect the oil fields on the mainland to the Kharg island about 20 miles away in the sea. US president says he wants the Straits of Hormuz opened for shipping.

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Some estimates of the cost of the Iran War for the US are about $13 billion over 10 days of the war. US president DJT asks Congress for $200 billion to finance the war. Iran refuses to back down on the closing of the Straits of Hormuz. Much of the oil going through the Straits of Hormuz goes to Asia, 90% from Kharg Island in Iran goes to China. Oil from the UAE goes through the Straits to Japan and India.

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Why this recession will be deeper and more prolonged than the mild ones of 1991 and 2001. In a paper Rogoff and Reinhart argue that this will be a significant and protracted slowdown. Goldman's Jan Hatzius thinks that the other industries outside banking and housing are in much better shape, and because they did not hire so much since 2001, may not retrench that much. And Gordon at Northwestern University sees exports, which are twice as large as construction in the GDP, should continue to grow strongly easing the housing decline. But he sees pressure on retail sales with higher energy costs and mortgage related troubles.

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With its slogan "Expect More, Pay less" Target has tried to combine low prices with moving upmarket, carrying designer merchandise and chic styling without breaking the family budget. Now with the recession and consumers becoming frugal in the USA, Target and its new CEO who took on the role in May 2008, Steinhafel, is looking at Wal-Mart to see how it can also emphasize the low prices in this recessionary climate. With store sales fallig by 10% in early 2009 Target executives were concerned that something needed to be done. And the thing was to bring even lower prices withor making customers feel cheap. Its chief marketing officer natty Francis always believed in the marketing philosophy of the 1952 book about Marshall Field "Give the Lady What She Wants." Question was what the lady wanted in today's environment. Instead of the old aspirational image of the designers behind Target apparel, Francis now put up the idea of how good value can be chic too. Target designers emphasized how the lady can look "frugalista fabulous." The other challenge was introducig groceries in the store. And instead of packaged foods he idea was to introduce fresh foods which have higher margins. Protype grocery stores were put up and the concept launched. And now instead of gradual rollout, Target went hyper local putting fresh food in all 30 Philadelphia stores. And the marketing ads, radio, newspaper circulars, TV everything made Philly residents aware of the move. Sales went up by 5to 10%. Now the concept has proven to work and Target plans to put in in 350 stores in 2010. And Nat Francis thinks Target did not move fast enough considering how quickly consumers have turned frugal. In the new frugal environment Target research showed its working-mom was obsessing about the price of milk not the thigh-high boots, and she was visiting the grocery store twice aweek and Target only 3 times amonth. Showing groceries mattered. Meantime Target's markeing is ore focussed and its creating the perception that Target and Wal-mart are so close on price. Target is actually devoting 75% of its advertising budget to price compared to 25% in 2008. So a 32 inch panel TV is $246, a coffeemaker is $3. Yet Target executives don't want to undo a strategy built up over years of a better customer experience, designer merchandise at lwer prices, something that would differentiate it from Wal-Mart. So the moves may simply be an adjustment to comport with the thriftier savings oriented times....

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The increasing competitiveness of Mexico compared to China and India as an investment destination in 2013. Foreign companies are investing heavily in Mexico because of investment advantages in labor cost, supply of engineering and management talent, and proximity to the U.S.

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Former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates points out in this intervew with Holman Jenkins of the WSJ, that Iraq's prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, who worsened Shiite-Sunni relations, was the principal cause of the unraveling that happened in Iraq during the first term of U.S. president Obama. He says President Obama failed to do what was done by president Bush to persist and obtain Status of Forces Agreement with Iraq, to maintain a U.S. foce presence in Iraq. Presence of U.S. forces would have prevented the spread of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. U.S. force presence would have provided a more even handed treatment of Sunnis in the region, creating the conditions for peace by having Sunnis, Kurds and Shiites continue talks about the future of Iraq. Gates grew up in Kansas in the 1950's, attended the College of William and Mary for undergraduate studies, studied Russian and Soviet history in grad school at Indiana University and Georgetown University, before joining the CIA. Gates was selected by Brzezinski to work in the White House, worked under Brent Snowcroft, and as head of the CIA (1991-1993) during the elder Bush administration. He was Secretary of Defense from 2006-2011, under presidents George Bush and Barack Obama, succeeding Donald Rumsfeld. He was succeeded by Leon Panetta, Chuck Hagel, and Ashton Carter. ...

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Greg Ip, Chief Economics correspondent of the WSJ, says there is a disconnect between falling stock markets in Jan 2016 and the economy. This is true not only for the U.S. economy but for China as well, says Ip. He points to the 6.9% growth rate in China for 2015 as close to the target set by China's government. Reports of economic output and exports show China's economy stabilizing. This contrasts with weakness in the way the government and the central bank have managed financial markets since the summer of 2015, sending confusing signals and hurting investor confidence. One difference as the stock markets decline worldwide- the Fed in the U.S has little room to cut rates and plans to gradually increase rates, the Chinese govenment and planners do not plan stimulus as they look for ways to reduce debt in the economy. This means less support for financial markets and less support for high valuations in the tech and startup sectors, which could provide stability in the long run.

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James Stewart of the NYT looks at the outlook for U.S. and international stock and bond markets in 2016. In 2015 stock and bond markets in the U.S. and international were affected by the huge fall in the price of oil and the sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy. This affected commodity producing countries and the oil industry worldwide including the U.S. The slowdown in China affected stock markets in other countries including Germany.

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Putin writes to Gayne Young, a high school English teacher from Fredericksbug, Texas, who is a blogger for Outdoor Life. A lengthy interview with Putin is published in Outdoor Life. Putin talks about the period before the Second World War and the Cold War period and says a large number of barriers were unnaturally and artificially forced on the two peoples during this period. He says the two countries and peoples were cruelly kept apart from each other and only now has the relationship assumed a natural pattern where people can communicate and make friends. Young was captivated by an account of Putin's encounter with a blue whale in the summer of 2010. Young asked Putin whether he thought this was dangerous and Putin's response was philosphical and eloquent- human beings are one of the most vulnerable creatures on earth, facing disease, disaster and criminality, he says, as if covering the Russian people's experiences since the Bolshevik revolution right through the period that followed the collapse of the Berlin Wall. He adds that this does not mean one should move back from living life to the fullest, experiencing it to the fullest, which by its very nature is about some level of risk....

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This NYT editorial provides statistics for the problems of young people facing high student debt, high unemployment, and working in jobs that do not require their educational qualifications. Federal Reserve data show 44% of young college graduates in 2012 working at jobs that did not require a college degree. Underemployment stands at 16.8% in the U.S.- this includes young people too discouraged to look for work and those stuck in part time jobs. Put another way the hope that existed in the 1970's for a better future is simply lacking. The boom, bust, and corrective policy preceding and following the 2000 and 2008 crises have acted as a huge distraction for needed policy steps and imposed additional penalties on young people, just as other trends in the globalized manufacturing and IT industry were shifting jobs overseas.