LyrArc Article Gist
More than half of the money in the $1.9 trillion aid package that was passed in the US Congress will go to people who need it most, the unemployed, the poor and struggling Americans on low incomes. The pandemic hit this group very hard. US president Biden has taken on a new role of supporting the poor, not just the working class as he has done with his roots in a working class district in Delaware. Biden says the aid will give the working class and struggling Americans "a fighting chance."

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An outline of ways in which the Biden $1.9 trillion aid package will help ordinary Americans hit hard by the pandemic- the unemployed, people on low incomes, part time workers, the poor, and the struggling working class.

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The Biden $1.9 trillion aid package that cleared the US Congress on March 10, 2021 sets the stage for an economic rebound by 2022. OECD forecasts now show the US economy by the end of 2022 to be larger than forecast before the pandemic. In trade and other business policy the Biden administration is quietly following the changes made under the Trump administration to make the US position stronger in international trade and manufacturing, and remaking supply chains to meet US interests.

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For the approaching US midterm elections president Biden seeks to draw a sharp contrast with Republican Senator Rick Scott's Plan which he says would worsen inflation and increase taxes on working class families. Mr. Scott's plan is for sunset on all federal legislation and president Biden says this would include Medicare and Social Security. Mr. Scott also wants all Americans to pay some income tax to have skin in the game. At this time about half of all Americans pay no taxes says Mr. Scott. Former US president Trump continues to lead the Republican party in 2022  yet he faces a very different Democratic party under president Biden. Mr. Biden's focus is on his $2 trillion plan for Workers and Families, rebuilding American manufacturing and renewing supply chains, unlike Hillary Clinton whose lacked such a focus. Leading to Mr. Trump's appeal with working class families and disdain for traditional Republican policies that secured him the presidency in 2018 by defeating Hillary Clinton. The changes with president Biden's focus on workers and families are happening also in the European Union. Scholz and the Greens in Germany, Macron in France with potentially Melenchon as prime minister, and similar changes in Denmark and other EU countries suggest that there is a renewed focus on infrastructure, rebuilding manufacturing and supply chain renewal, rebuilding incomes and lives of workers and families, in Europe and the US. ...

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The big difference between the US at about 1.2 million electric car sales and China at over 9 million in the last year is that companies such as BYD have found away to come up new battery technology that uses different more accessible materials. BYD's research into new batteries came up with a iron phosphate battery as shown on articles on BYD in 2024 to substitute for less available lithium and cobalt. On one of its models BYD is offering a price of $11000. This attracts a different kind of buyer than what American makers are reaching. Another plus for BYD is that while sales are stalling in the US because of battery range and lack of charging station access, BYD also sells a large number of hybrid electric cars that help urban dwellers go back to their homes in the countryside. BYD also manufactures two thirds of its parts internally producing needed savings. China is also pushing electric cars with government subsidies and government is working hand in hand with industry in a concerted effort for two decades. Compare that with US where the Biden administration was the first to start changing the way the US does business to put government industry cooperation and working together at the heart of the way of doing things. The US could learn from other nations and adapt its own industrial and modernization efforts in the world after the pandemic and as supply chains are being renewed and restructured. Every nation can learn from its peers. ...

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  Newly elected US president says he wants to end the Ukraine war and save lives- 300,000 dead, twice that number wounded. The Wall Street Journal conducts this important interview with Retired Brigadier General Kimmett on Ukraine. He says- the Ukrainian goal of restoring sovereignty over eastern Ukraine is unrealistic. Did European Union and American leaders making a principle of sovereignty of borders, and then applying it over the Donetsk Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine which share Russian culture and language, make an error.  About 4/5th of Ukraine is away from the battlefield frontlines and not involved in the war. Ukrainians in younger ages 18-29 are needed to rebuild Ukraine and same to rebuild Russia after the war with serious losses on all sides. Europe does not have the excess capacity, the industrial capacity and capabilities to supply arms and other materials to Ukraine. The newly elected US president says he wants to end the war and his goal is to save lives- about 300,000 dead and twice that number wounded. He also wants to save US strained resources with DJT saying every visit of Ukraine leader costs US $60 billion. Ukraine can hold intact its positions through 2025. But the point of prolonging the war is the issue when the goal of restoring sovereignty over eastern Ukraine and Crimea is unrealistic, and won't happen. ...

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US is shutting down 10% of airport traffic because of government shutdown in November 2025. Democrats are holding up the passing of the new budget till Obama's Affordable Care Act healthcare subsidies for low income Americans are restored. Republicans who control both houses of Congress are unwilling to restore these subsidies saying it will cost $350 billion over 10 years. Editorials in the Washington Post in November see Obama's Affordable Care Act as a bandaid approach for a broken healthcare system in the US. Public opinion in the US supports this assessment. Trade unions and labor have called for an end to the government shutdown. Democrats are acting as though the party is for low income Americans and labor yet this is not the party of FDR who fought hard for labor over vested interests, Democrats today are the vested interests whether from Tech which is taking a disproportionate share of the Nation's wealth and resources and pouring it into projects that do not reduce the cost of living or rebuild crumbling obsolete infrastructure, or from Banks which were not sanctioned for their part in the 2009 financial crisis, or from healthcare interests that oppose restructuring the entire healthcare system for fairness in insurance, pharmaceutical pricing and wellness. Republicans are making an effort to displace Democrats in the role of FDR and Lincoln under newcomer DJT who rejects both the incompetent Bush (Republican) and Obama (Democrat) administrations that wasted money and resources in foreign wars while overlooking America's many challenges and strengthening foreign powers including China, while weakening the US. The US government is cutting airport traffic to relieve unpaid traffic controllers. Also at risk are SNAP benefits which are for the loew income Americans. The US president is asking the Senate to drop the filibuster rule which requires 60 votes in the Senate for the biudget to pass it and pass it by majority vote. The Senate Majority Leader Republican Thune wants to keep the filibuster because it acts as a brake for hasty legislation passed by whichever party is in government. ...

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Finnish president Niinisto provides a new understanding of Mr. Putin and the thinking that led to the invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Niinisto has an advantage having spoken with Mr. Putin countless times says this report in WSJ, and spoke again to Mr. Putin on May 14 to tell him that Finland was planning to join NATO. Putin simply responded that Russia does not pose a threat and "you made a mistake." He says it was not the Finnish way to not call Putin and tell him directly, and that not doing so would be like sneaking away around the corner. Mr. Niinisto says WSJ, has a rare insight into the thinking that led to the behavior of Mr. Putin in launching the war. Here are some insights from this report by Adam O'Neal of WSJ. On the situation in Ukraine Niinisto says " I would be a lot more worried about Ukrainians than about how Russians feel." Mr. Putin's willingness to see Ukraine's industrial centers, its infrastructure and cities destroyed, turning them into moon craters in the east compares with the relative ease of life in Moscow, St Petersburg and other cities, cushioned by Russian oil and gas exports and financial reserves. As a student of Finland's long and violent history with Russia Mr. Niinisto has some unique insights into Russian thinking. He tells WSJ's Adam O'Neal  that if a Russian is angry, yes, be careful, but if he's calm, be even more careful. The Russian invasion of Finland led to loss of 200,000 lives in 1939-40, and another 250,000 Russian lives in fighting between 1941-1944. Finland has 300,000 men or women in military reserves and men between 18 years and 60 years are called up for military service with the Finnish Constitution requiring every citizen to contribute to national defense. Recently Finland ordered 64 F-35 fighter jets from the US. What led to the invasion of Ukraine by Mr. Putin? Niinisto says that "somehow Mr. Putin has a feeling that Russia was betrayed in the 90's by the West. Over time this thinking continued feeding the negativity says Niinisto and led to the thinking that Russia could be betrayed once more.  Another aspect of Mr. Putin which was covered during the last decade of relations with Ukraine in Lyrarc, was his perception that Ukraine under various leaders before Zelensky was basically led by corrupt leaders including one president he supported but lost power in the last decade. Mr. Putin saw protests in Kviv and Lviv that ousted a president he supported recently as orchestrated from outside. This led to thinking that Ukrainian nationalism did not exist and he believed that Kviv would not be defended and would fall easily within a week or weeks. As his nationalist perceptions and that of a small group that included his partner in office Mr. Medvedev became stronger in the last ten years Mr. Putin made the decision to take the option for invasion in the thinking that the response of the US and Germany would not be to support Ukraine with arms and other aid. The CDU and SPD was perceived as weak in Germany and Scholz not seen as able to cut down oil and gas imports to the EU. Biden was seen as not willing to stop Russia by taking on a difficult conflict because of China allying itself with Russia, considering China's interconnections with the American economy. The timing was seen as good considering that this level of dependence on oil and gas imports of Europe on Russia would never be the case after planned shifts to renewable energy. The Russian economy was cushioned by its $620 billion in reserves and by the world's need for energy even as the shift to renewable was taking place. This window my have induced Mr. Putin to take what appeared to be a rational decision that ignored the common feelings of humanity of risking the destruction of a brotherly people that spoke Russian, prayed in Orthodox churches, and where Russia as a state started in the year 1000. Cambridge historian Brendan Simms in his new book "Europe : The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the present," has shown all European powers susceptible of reasoning and calculation of this type in their wars since 1453 in the struggle for supremacy in Europe up to the present- the Portuguese, the Spanish, the Dutch, the British, the French, the Germans, the Russians, the Danes, the Swedes. This also led to British and French empires in Asia and Africa with subjugation of Asian and African people. The Second World War had created the perception that somehow this had changed after the loss of millions of lives- that was the perception of Merkel a pastor's daughter who had grown up in the former communist state of GDR in East Germany, and of SPD leader Steinmeier who felt strongly about the loss of lives from the Nazi invasion. Merkel and Steinmeier built the relationship of Germany with Russia that has collapsed under Germany's new leader Scholz and Habeck-Baerbock of the Greens party. Merkel and Steinmeier also built the trade relationship with China that also faces collapse with China's support of Russia under Mr. Jinping, and the unexpected shifts in Chinese leadership and policies from that pursued by premier Deng and his successors in 1990-2010 of interconnected economic links with US and EU. Mr. Scholz, the new chancellor of Germany has Brendan Simms book on Europe on his reading list for 2022 as he ponders over the lessons of 2022 and the pandemic. Mr. Biden with long experience in the Senate of the US has a memory and understanding of what happened since World War II, how America got to this point, and what it will have to do to bring back the American spirit to the Free World that America has led for most of the last two hundred years. ...

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The share price performance as measured by price/earnings multiple of Total, BP, Eni and other European oil companies lag behind Exxon, Chevron and other American oil companies by as much as 26%, because of the effects of the eurozone crisis. Yet the annual return on average capital is about the same 12% for these companies for 2002-2011 accoding to data from Deutsche Bank, with the exception of BP's oil spill disaster results. And Total has a large exploration portfolio in many countries.

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Losses at Kabul Bank approaching $900 million in January 2011. According to the New York Times report investigators and Afghan businessmen believe that much of the money has gone into the pockets of a small group of privileged and politically connected Afghans, who prevented earlier inquiry into the bank's dealings. This threatens Afghanistan's nascent banking system. The bank is also used to pay Afghan security forces, which puts the American military in the position of having to look for new banks to process the $1.5 billion payroll.

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A 850 megawatt solar project, the largest in the US outside of Las Vegas runs into opposition from environmentalists concerned about the effect on views and on tortoises other endangered species. The planned project on top of Mormon Mesa would put over 1 million solar panels 10 to 20 feet tall in the Nevada desert. Across the US 800 utility scale solar projects are under contract for generation of 70,000 megawatts of electricity, enough for 11 million homes, for more than Texas. Over half of this solar capacity is going into the southwestern US, with its sunshine and open land. For the first time the ardent advocates of renewable energy such as the Sierra Club are now opposing such projects. Solar made up one tenth of one percent of US energy in 2010, in 2020 it made up 4.5%. It is growing very rapidly because costs are going way down. Even before government subsidies solar is now below the cost of natural gas. Projects near Martha's Vineyard on the Massachusetts coast took 12 years to get sate and federal approval for wind energy. These battles are similar to ones being fought in Europe. The US is better positioned for solar because of vast desert spaces in the American southwest. President Joe Biden plans to use this advantage of solar and wind to get to 100% renewable energy by 2035. ...

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India in 2022 and looking at 2030 has great potential in the world. India's interests as a democracy are clearly aligned with the US and Europe. In the past when India was small in economic terms after emerging from the British Empire as an independent nation and out of the fire of the partition and wars in South Asia in 1962, 1965, 1971 policies of ambivalence in foreign affairs took place. At that time says Manmohan Singh, a former prime minister who negotiated for rouble -Indian rupee agreement in the 1970's and 1980's India was finding its way for its small but growing economy. This was in the context of the Nehru-Indira Gandhi policy of non-alignment of the early years after independence when India was never presented with an opportunity to make a difference in the world and was only a small part of the world economy. Today's situation is different. The US and European Union now see the need for a principle based economic order and while one may quibble about the small details, in the larger sense, history has intended for us, the US, the European Union, UK,  British Commonwealth of which we are a part, to stand together economically and politically with our shared parliamentary systems based on western- British and American- democracy and values.  Never has history presented such a huge opportunity for billions of people- to meet the aspirations across continents from North and South America, European Union, to Africa, Asia south and south east and Japan. All countries that aspire to the free societies that have evolved over hundreds of years. It is also the spirit in which Hind Swaraj was written in 1910 by Mohandas Gandhi and which was turned into reality only 37 years later under his leadership and vision for India. The non-alignment period of 2 decades was more of a intervening chapter that resulted from a sense of grievance rather than in the spirit of courage and spirited effort that Mohandas Gandhi embodied and led India with. In Manmohan Singh's direct unmistakable terms and from the vast experience he brings as a respected Indian civil servant- "India as the largest peace loving democracy stands to gain enormously from this principled trade aspiration of the western block of nations of the US and European Union. It presents a tremendous opportunity for India to become a large producing nation for the world and a global economic powerhouse. However, to capitalize on these opportunities India needs free access to these markets, an accepted and global currency to trade in and seamless trade settlements." Manmohan Singh sees millions of factories manned by hundreds of millions of people of all castes, creeds and religions of India. This is a pivotal moment of change for India and India must grasp it firmly. It is also the Mohandas Gandhi of Hind Swaraj taken to a new level from 1910 to 2050, and today's young people's aspiration for India.  ...

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This report in the WSJ makes the America centric thinking mistake of forgetting where China started from in assessing progress and China's new priorities. In 1960 the World Bank shows China per capita at $90 which does not change much till 1990 when it was $300, the Deng opening to western technology and capital pushed it up to $3000 the year 2000 (US $36,000) and $4500 in 2010 (US $50,000) when the global financial crisis hit. Since 2010 the Chinese economy was burdened by high local government debt and struggled to get to $10,000 in 2020 under Xi Jinping's first two terms as president. Yet it paid a huge price for this -the chance of Bo Xilai (2014) upsetting the twin banners of Science and Modernization of the May 4th 1919 movement that set the course of China for 100 years uninterrupted through the Nationalists, the Japanese occupation, the Maoist CCP, the Deng CCP opening and Jinping CCP pullback. The huge inequality was seen as an opportunity for Bo Xi Lai or some other leader to capitalize on moving China in an unknown direction that posed risks for the future of China. Even then the first preference of Xi would be to carry on with what had worked after Deng. Yet it was clear that working class votes were shifting the dynamics of elections after the Trump election and closing the doors to open access to western capital, technology, and investment. With Trump in erratic and uncertain ways, with Biden after the elections of 2020 consistent and with single minded determination to limit flows. Not just Xi, any other Chinese leader would have had to have the internal discussions about the need to shift back to a model China was familiar with and one that worked before- that of state intervention in the economy, that of reducing the inequalities that posed risks for the CCP's survival as forging a path for stability to carry out the twin banners of the May 4, 1919 Movement - Science and Modernization as China's salvation. Unlike the hysteria about China posing a challenge to the US these internal debates of Xi and the party may have concluded that the US with about half the population of China's as it grows with immigration in the future and multiple times the per capita GDP was a country that no other country was going to come close to. In this sense the supply chains are deceptive as these are likely to be completely redone under the Biden administration to bring most important manufacturing back to China. It is in this context that Xi had limited room to manoeuvre and decided to focus on stability for the long term to fulfill China's dream of the May 4, 1919 Movement of the last 100 years for Science and Modernization casting aside the risks associated for instability of the inequality that comes with more of the western type of growth, and with the climate change risks also associated with it. Lower growth gives China a chance to correct some of the flaws of the hyper growth that was partly of its own making and partly thrust upon it by investors from the outside, so that the new climate would best serve the goals of the May 4, 1919 Movement of keeping high the banners of Science and Modernization. This kind of rethinking is also going on in the US in the same manner about inequalities and hardships for workers and families, with some of the anger directed at China as internal political sentiment- hence the trillions of dollars moved by the Biden administration to address the flaws of growth under free markets and intervene in the economy where needed as in climate change to give firm sense of direction. In a sense the direction taken in different contexts the American and the Chinese are the same - address the problems of workers and families, of the people, as Lincoln had pointed out and striven so hard for, so that Labor is the more important than Capital, and workers and families vital to the nation.   ...

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Ford executes new strategy for reaching the younger first time buyers of small cars in India. The car is a hatchback called the Figo designed with the help of Indian engineers for the Indian and overseas markets. It has done a$500 million expansion of its plant in Chennai, India, doubling production to 200,000 vehicles ayear, and 250,000 diesel engines a year by 2010. Mullaly says: "literally India is designing the small car for the world." Separately Ford is building a new car plant in Chongquing, China, for 300,000 cars, midsize and suv's. The change is huge and dramatic for car production. CSM Worldwide predicts car sales in India 45% higher in 2011 compared to 2007, and 39% growth in China, 26% in Brazil. In contrast, car sales in North Americaand Europe will not have returned to 2007 levels by 2011. Considering declining levels in Japan and Germany sales may be on a slow downturn. See links to this. For instance Ford predits Ford's production in North America will decline to 35% of global production by 2015 from 54% in 1997. ...

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Tesla Motors delivers 10,350 vehicles in the 1st quarter 2015. This is a 55% increase over the same quarter in 2014. The target set by CEO Elon Musk of Tesla Motors is for deliveries of 55,000 in 2015, and reaching 500,000 by 2020. The new model Tesla Model X sport utility vehicle comes out in the second half of 2015. Tesla's expenses are going up rapidly with the higher sales, especially for a global supercharger network in North America, Europe and Asia, to meet new buyer concerns about the infrastructure. Capital expenditures budget for 2015 is $1.5 billion. Future expenditures include a $4-5 billion plant to make electric batteries. Tesla says it will not be profitable till 2020. Tesla is using attractive lease deals to overcome buyer resistance at a time of low gas prices. It is cutting back on plans for China. Tesla share price on April 2, 2015 was $191. This gives it a dizzy $24 billion capitalization, about half of the capitalization of GM at $58.8 billion in stock market capitalization, and Ford Motor at $63.4 billion. ...

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Cillizza points to two demographics that the Republicans missed in the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections. The Hispanic vote comprises 10% of the electorate. Obama won this demographic with 69% compared to 29% for Romney. Romney's extreme positions, to the right of Governor Rick Perry of Texas got him through the Republican primaries but left him exposed in the national elections as he defended his statements of support for "self-deportation." In this respect Reagan, Bush, Perry adopted moderate positions and favored helping children of immigrants get a good education so they could be integrated into American society. Perry even took a hit for his moderate position supporting immigrants in the primaries even before his memory slip in a debate. Romney failed to support even the Dream Act for a pathway to be given to children of immigrants supported by Mark Rubio, a Cuban-American Republican senator of Florida. The second key demographic is the young people vote ages 18-29. This was 18% of the electorate in 2008, and about 19% in 2012. Obama took this demographic with a lead of 34 points in 2008 and a lead of 24 points in 2012. So that even with diminishing support such large numbers meant there was a large cushion to win the election by combining several demographics even if the Democratic position eroded somewhat because of the economy and unemployment at near 8%. This is what happened because of the 6 out of 10 voters, or 60% of the electorate who voted, Romney won 51% to Obama's 47%. This enabled Obama to get the small victory margin he needed in the popular vote. In many ways Romney was "an unnatural candidate" as the Wall Street Journal described him in its editorial, being a private equity business executive fighting a election with Democrats fighting to protect middle and working class interests....

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After the Phase 1 trade deal with China led to cancellation of new tariffs on computers, mobile phones and the remaining products imported from China, tariffs are still in place on $370 billion of imports from China. President Trump says China agreed to import $32 billion of agricultural goods, with the figures reaching $50 billion in 2020. The prior high was $26 billion in 2012. This comes as a big relief for the agricultural farm sector which had 24% more bankruptcies in 2019. Farmers are now more likely to vote for president Trump as they did in the last election. In addition China agreed to buy $200 billion more of American goods over the next 2 years. This combined with the USMCA agreement to replace NAFTA, for North American trade, is good news for president Trump and for the U.S. economy for 2% annual growth. The S&P stock index went up by 29% in 2019. The big concession by China is its agreement to agree to penalties if it does not keep up its part of the bargain.  Intellectual property protection remains a challenge and Mr. Trump may have decided to take a tactical success and shore up his base of farmers and small business people before taking up these issues in the future. China for its part may have decided to make a tactical move of its own as it has nothing to lose in importing more farm products from the U.S. in exchange for being able to continue to make the computers, iPhones and tech products it manufactures, just like before. China has not conceded much in terms of its goals set  in "Made in China 2025." Both sides are taking a much needed pause to consolidate their positions, as the fundamental differences remain to be tackled. Huawei and Chinese technology issue remains as before with the U.S. wary of China's technological gains in 5G telecom equipment and keen on building and protecting America's technological advantage in future trade relations. ...

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This WSJ editorial says China's nationalist sentiment should not be underestimated and there are risks of a skirmish between Japan and China over disputed islands. The Japanese government's decision to buy the islands was meant to counter the effort of nationalist Tokyo governor Ishihara's attempt to buy the islands, and should not have been seen as a provocation by China. It says the U.S. should stand by Japan. WSJ reported on Sept. 25, 2012, joint exercizes with Japan's Self Defense Force on the island of Guam, providing American training on island defense.

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No less than the Editorial Board of the NYT says  Democrats have their heads in the sand when it comes to reflecting honestly about transgender -with the Cass Commission of Britain's NHS advising serious caution- and social issues. Lack of acceptance about the need for strong action on issues of trade that have hurt ordinary Americans with the destruction of manufacturing and the middle class. Some of this was done with Biden taking a stand on trade by keeping the DJT tariffs on China, and supporting US manufacturing. But this was not enough- stronger action was needed especially with strong tariffs action as the last resort needed to get Canada, Mexico and China to stop fentanyl flows to the US in 2025 and protect the middle and working class in the US in their neighborhoods.  Yet on immigration the NYT does not come flat out and say that opening up the border was the single biggest error of the Biden administration. And a failure to talk openly to the American people in a fireside chat reminiscent of FDR about Venezuela and Mexico. Part of the reason was a misconception about American power when it could be used to good purposes and has been in history. The Monroe doctrine of the 1820's asserted American right to prevent colonial powers returning to the American continent north and south. This was a good idea and helped this continent develop freely and independently. The US has a right to prevent migrant trafficking and fentanyl flows in its backyard in the American continent, including taking economic action, when it causes serious disruption leading to 7 million refugees and millions of migrants crossing borders. It also has a right to create an even playing field for trade, that not DJT alone but advisers with great experience, Robert Lighthizer, Deputy Trade Representative under Reagan- who negotiated with 1980's Japan on the same grounds as we do with China today- strongly advise the president to do.   ...

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Pearlstein says American Airlines (AMR) management had hoped to reduce employees count by 13,000, reduce benefits for employees and retirees and reform work rules by going through bankruptcy in the manner of other airlines such as Delta and Northwest. As it turns out AMR's unions and US Airways have made their own deal and come up with labor agreements that are likely to result in a merger deal with AMR with 1.2 billion in savings from synergies, instead of relying on labor savings for $800 million as AMR management had planned. This is because US Airways CEO, Doug Parker, sees increased savings and revenue from a new combined airline and a better hands on management team. Part of the reason is also the the way the combined airline provides additional feeder traffic from smaller cities to hubs in the east coast and midwest markets and in the Miami routes to South America. The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation also tacitly sees the benefit of a stronger airline so that its funds are not depleted further by having to support AMR's underfunded pension plan. The creditors have also realized what all this means by increasing the value of AMR bonds to 50 cents on the dollar from 30 cents on the dollar....

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Lael Brainard, head of the National Economic Council, and former Vice Chair at the Federal Reserve answers questions at the Council of Foreign Relations in Dec. 2024. Points she made are- The inflation we experienced was correctly diagnosed by Powell and the Fed as caused by Supply shocks from the pandemic not 1970's style embedded expectations inflation.  The response was to free up the supply by freeing up the clogged Los Angles Ports with labour and logistics coordination, and other actions. It also included redoing the supply chains to reduce dependence on China as only supplier. The 2017 tax cuts mean revenue will be 1.5 percentage points lower than the historically 18% of the GDP. This will increase the deficit. Biden administration had kept the deficit in control and reduced it by making offsetting adjustments when investment in certain areas such as childcare was done. The childcare tax credit is important for American families. Action is needed to increase the supply of housing. These are reminders of what is needed for the new DJT administration to keep the American economy on a strong footing says Brainard.     ...

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Every year India Youth Day is observed on the 12th of January on the birthday of Swami Vivekananda. Vivekananda 1863-1902 preceded Mohandas Gandhi in the first period of the Indian struggle for Independence from the British Empire. The book Hind Swaraj by Gandhiji which set the blueprint for India's independence struggle was inspired by and followed in 1909 only a few years after Vivekananda's death in 1902. Vivekananda also inspired Indonesia's Sukarno in the struggle for independence from the Dutch Empire during the 1930's and 1940's. The population of India and Indonesia which represent the height of the ancient Vedic civilization of South Asia is in 2025 1722 million. It also encompasses China Japan Korea and Vietnam with a population of 1750 million when we consider India as the centre of Buddhist civilization. About 3.5 billion people with a common heritage in ancient Vedic and Buddhist civilization. Matched only by Christian civilization with 1.0 billion people in the Americas and 750 million in Europe. Combined this is two thirds of the world population. Under the British, Dutch and French Empires India was kept separate from cultural and religious contact with Indonesia, Vietnam, China and Japan. There is a convergence of culture and religion in Asia in the 21st century first between India and Indonesia and Vietnam, and second between India and Japan, Korea. That convergence will grow between India and China in the rest of the 21st century as ancient but modern civilizations with a common history. ...

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President Obama's speech announcing the details of his executive order on immigration on Nov. 20, 2014, starts by saying he is not bypassing Congress or the Republicans. He says Republicans had the opportunity to pass legislation in the House that passed the Senate, or come up with their own bill. And still have an opportunity to come up with a bill he could sign into law that address the shortcomings of the current immigration system. In selling the bill to Americans he points out that this is not an amnesty, that the current system which allows immigrants here to stay illegally without paying taxes or any accountability is an amnesty. He points to deportation of millions as not an option, an out of the character of America. That deportation of criminals will continue and is up 80% in his administration, without mentioning that deportation under his administration for ordinary undocumented immigrants without any criminal record had reached a high of 400,000 a year under his administration, higher than under the Republican Bush administration. In fact it had reached such levels that Hispanic groups stated they would sit out the midterm 2014 elections and not vote for Democrats or Republicans, after providing a significant part of the winning margin for Obama in the 2012 presidential election. President Obama says he has the legal authority to prevent deportation, and that this is essentially what this executive order does- providing a temporary right to stay and work in this country to undocumented immigrants here living in the shadows who are here for more than 5 years, not a permanent status or citizenship. He cites other presidential decisions of the last 50 years, Republican and Democratic, that have integrated large groups of undocumented immigrants, including an executive order by President Reagan. And he refers to the Bush presidencies 41 and 43, where both father and son, considered Hispanic Americans "a part of American life," as good hard-working people deserving a chance to be Americans. The speech ends with an appeal to the compassion of Americans urging them to look at their own individual stories going back one, two or several generations, or Ellis Island where the early waves of European immigrants entered the country in the 19th century, and to immigrants from the period after the early British settlements in the 18th century. This is typical Obama, as much as the calculated decision to pursue a aggressive deportation policy was for the first 6 years of his administration, including the decision for "Dreamers" or young people before the 2012 election. "Scripture tells us, we shall not oppress a stranger, for we know the heart of a stranger. we were strangers once, too. And whether our forbears were strangers who crossed the Atlantic, or the Pacific, or the Rio Grande, we are here because this country welcomed them in." Over 2 million deportations in one of the most aggressive deportation policies of any administration, followed by an effort to stop deportations before the next presidential election, when the NYT had called his deportation policy "infuriating." ...

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Across Africa the situation is worsening for food security following the pandemic. More people are likely to die from food insecurity than from the pandemic. A succession of crises including drought, a locust swarm moving over vast parts east Africa into South Asia, and tons of crops rotting in the field after the lockdowns, are making the situation worse. With the lockdowns many informal economy workers are not able to earn a living, with no safety net this means they are going without food and slipping deeper into poverty. Remittances from overseas supported many people in the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and this has dropped by about 20-30%. As a result the World Food Program estimated in April that 265 million people, double that in 2019 will face world hunger- 3 in every 100 in the world. About 821 million will face food insecurity. The world food system is fragile with just none plant species accounting for two thirds the global crop, with threats of soil erosion, rising temperatures, extreme weather and disease. Wars, high inflation, political struggles, and conflicts make things worse. The hope comes from the fact that this time the largest countries China and India are emerging in 2020 very different from what they faced for most of the nineteenth century, with recurring famines and lack of access to food supplies. India now even allows farmers to export food to buyers in other countries directly. Getting money into the hands of farmers and people in food insecurity areas is one way for them to access existing food supplies all over the world. ...