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Yuka Hayashi describes the remarkable comeback of prime minister Shinzo Abe in Japan, his "Japan is Back," strategy and its personal overtones. He describes a visit- by Japanese known for taking that second or third chance and making it work through difficulties- to the prime ministers residence for discussion on the theme of "the second chance." The premier tells the visitors that Walt Disney would never have been heard of if he had not tried the sixth time after five failures, and not succeeded in Japan, which has a risk and failure averse business environment. Encouraging risk taking to setup new ventures and open up new frontiers and markets is part of the growth strategy for Japan. His personal struggle with ulcerative colitis during the period of his first term as prime minister, and the new drug discoveries that made it possible for him to recover, give Abe a fresh burst of energy this time. His story and Japan's story now coincide. Abe says the mission of the new LDP is to make sure that talent now flows from mature industries to the industries of the future....

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Risks to stable long term growth of too much liquidity in the global financial system.

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Bank of America CEO, Brian Moynihan sees economic growth at 2.5% for the U.S. in 2014, and global economic growth for GDP at 3.5%. He expects the Fed to continue its bond buying program in 2014 to prevent any backsliding in economic growth in the U.S.

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Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke's writings as a professor at Princeton on the banking crisis in Japan after the real estate bubble, a crisis similiar to what the U.S. is experiencing.

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Chinese company investments in Korean companies are not doing well because of widespread feeling among Korean workers in these companies that the Chinese company is only interested in transferring the Korean company technology to China. Also hopes of selling products in the Chinese market have not been realized. Instead the experience is that the Korean company ends up up laying off most of the employees after being hollowed out. In 2003 BOE a Chinese company paid $380 million for Hydis, a Korean maker of displays for cellphones and laptop computers. After the transfer of technology to build a new display panel factory in Beijing, Hydis was left o hollow out and went into bankrupptcy protection in 2006. Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation bought a controlling stake in Ssangyong Motor of South Korea in 2004. Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation, one of China's top state owned companies saw this as a push abroad, as China accumulated large dollar reserves from foreign trade, and a chance to acquire foreign technolgy for SUV and luxury car manufacture. Shanghai Automotive has partnerships with GM and VW to use foreign technology to make cars in China. The Korean economy after the financial crisis of 1997 was opening up to foreign investment. In this climate the Korean side was expecting China to open its market to Korean cars from Ssangyong, but this did not happen. Instead Korean workers say the company transferred technology to its Chinese parent, and after 5 years the partnership is falling apart in protests by the workers, layoffs and bitter battles amid declining sales. The Korean workers even have a word for such foreign companies that have come to Korea, during Korea's opening to foreign investors after the 1997 banking crisis, when Korean firms went for fire-sale prices. That word is "meoktwi", a slang term that means "a thief who eats and runs away." This has hurt China's reputation in South Korea, and its reputation as an enlightened investor in other countries. It also is what may be happening with Taiwanese investment in China in this downturn. Companies like Hon Hai, with its Chinese subsidiary Foxconn, are reported by the Economist to be shrinking their Chinese operations in a large industrial city sized campus employing 250,000 workers in the Shenzen area, to 100,000 workers. That factory city made laptops, PC's cellphones for Western companies using foreign technology....

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Amazing! Just fresh from the foreclosure crisis and as the worst of the foreclosures are taking place between now and 2009 for subprime and other loans homebuilders and home sellers are financing the 3% downpayment required by FHA for loans from the is government agency. What do they hope to accomplish sell homes and have the government foot the bill when these homes also go into foreclosure in a downturn? Already above average default rates for seller assisted down payment programs will make this government agency the Federal Housing Administration ask for a government subsidy for the firtst time in its 74 year history. The FHA will need $1.4 billion next year. FHA estimates that down payments provided by nonprofit groups account for 34% of all 200,000 loans backed by the FHA so far this year, up from 18% in all of 2003, and less than 2% in 2000. And FHA says that borrowers are 2 to 3 times as likely to default on their payments when they receive a down payment from a nonprofit. The reckless manner in which homebuilders are selling these homes is unbelievable, more so in today's difficult economy. See the ads for these homes in this WSJ article and its is shocking. D.R. Horton is advertising 100% financing for 2 and 3 bedroom homes near the beach in Maui, costint $498,000, and a Seattle area builder Quadrant corporation is advertising townhomes for $500 downpayment. Use your coffee budget says a online promotion in the St Louis area! And though the risks are known to housing officials in the government they face a battle from well funded and coaltition of homebuilders, lowincome housing and minority groups. though its hard to understand how a home that ends in foreclosure for a low income group or minortiy group can benefit a minority group. Yet the Black and Hispanic caucus, people in Congress like Maxine Waters and Barney Frank still think it does as they continue to support the lobbying that keeps these kinds of loans going. Two examples given here of a Dick Whitmore and a Gloria Harris one saying it was impossible for him to come up with the $5000 downpayment and the other saying she was living from week to week suggest that they are likely to end up having difficulty making payments. ...

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After the Phase 1 trade deal with China led to cancellation of new tariffs on computers, mobile phones and the remaining products imported from China, tariffs are still in place on $370 billion of imports from China. President Trump says China agreed to import $32 billion of agricultural goods, with the figures reaching $50 billion in 2020. The prior high was $26 billion in 2012. This comes as a big relief for the agricultural farm sector which had 24% more bankruptcies in 2019. Farmers are now more likely to vote for president Trump as they did in the last election. In addition China agreed to buy $200 billion more of American goods over the next 2 years. This combined with the USMCA agreement to replace NAFTA, for North American trade, is good news for president Trump and for the U.S. economy for 2% annual growth. The S&P stock index went up by 29% in 2019. The big concession by China is its agreement to agree to penalties if it does not keep up its part of the bargain.  Intellectual property protection remains a challenge and Mr. Trump may have decided to take a tactical success and shore up his base of farmers and small business people before taking up these issues in the future. China for its part may have decided to make a tactical move of its own as it has nothing to lose in importing more farm products from the U.S. in exchange for being able to continue to make the computers, iPhones and tech products it manufactures, just like before. China has not conceded much in terms of its goals set  in "Made in China 2025." Both sides are taking a much needed pause to consolidate their positions, as the fundamental differences remain to be tackled. Huawei and Chinese technology issue remains as before with the U.S. wary of China's technological gains in 5G telecom equipment and keen on building and protecting America's technological advantage in future trade relations. ...

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Decades of investment in infrastructure and manufacturing have given China a strong grip on manufacturing. China's economy depends on exports with sluggish domestic demand. One economist in Hong Kong says Vietnam is the key, if tariffs are placed on Vietnam it will be tough he says, because Chinese goods enter the US from third countries.

In 2025 China's world trade is imbalanced to an extraordinarily large degree, hurting thriving manufacturing communities around the world, and depends on a concentration of port logistics, manufacturing and lack of fair trade practices, that allow $3.5 trillion in exports while taking in only $2.5 trillion in imports. By 2008 America was waking up to this, DJT actually flagged it a decade later, Biden realized this, in the second term what appears like a whirlwind 100 days is really action on many fronts that is coming one to two decades late. 

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The U.S. experienced a net increase in jobs of 69,000 in May. The average for the March-May 2012 period is 96,000 jobs, which is down from the figure of 245,000 net jobs added in the previous three months December- February 2012. Increasing auto sales did not increase jobs by much- only 12,000. Job gains were in health care, transportation and warehousing, with cutbacks in construction and at the local government level.

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Former German chancellor from the SPD party, Gerhard Schroeder, is interviewed by Rayond Zhong of the WSJ. Here he describes his views on the way Agenda 2010 was implemented in 2003 in Germany to gain public support for changes to Germany's welfare state. He also talks about the eurozone crisis and how Angela Merkel has handled the crisis, and the right approach for an Agenda 2020 for Europe. The interview was made at Schroeder's law office in Hannover, Germany. This is a detailed and exceptional interview by Zhong covering all facets of the eurozone crisis and Germany's response. Schroeder says it was right to give Greece more time to make the reforms, so that the Greek people could see that this path would help in a positive way. In doing this he cites his own experience when as the reforms for Agenda 2010 to make Germany more competitive were taking place- including cuts in spending and lower taxes- he turned down his finance minister Hans Eichel's proposal in 2003 for an additional 20 billion euros in cuts to put Germany in compliance with EU law....

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The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee voted 7 to 3 to continue a policy of keeping the federal funds rate at exceptionally low levels "at least through mid-2013." Presidents of the Federal Reserve regional banks- Fisher of Dallas, Kocherlakota of Minneapolis, and Plosser of Philadelphia preferred different language that would only say exceptionally low rates for "for an extended period."

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China's new foreign policy team under the Jinping-Keqiang administration. Foreign minister Yang Jiechi, becomes state councilor, and senior official on the team. The new foreign minister Wang Yi, was China's ambassador to Japan 2004-2007. The new ambassador to the U.S. is Cui Tiankai, a diplomat who graduated from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in the U.S. Cui was ambassador to Japan 2007-2009. Managing the China-Japan and China-U.S. relationships is critical for China because China depends on U.S. and Japanese companies for investment and new technology, for continued economic progress. The relationship has been affected by the territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea. Germany as an advanced technology manufacturer and commodity exporters Australia, Canada, Argentina and Brazil depend on the Chinese market for exports, creating an interwoven economic dynamic that is likely to be the dominant factor in relations. This is also the perception of Li Keqiang who told a press conference in Beijing that the competition with the U.S. has been overemphasized, that he "does not believe conflicts between great powers are inevitable." Foreign affairs remains subordinate to domestic policy and priorities in China, as China tackles the problem of reorienting its economy to give an important place to the private sector and consumers. Itself not an easy task, as prime minister Keqiang pointed out at his first press conference: "Talking the talk is not as good as walking the walk." One of Keqiang's main allies in this effort is Robert Zoellick, former president of the World Bank, who helped put together with China's DRC, the report "China: 2030," outlining these priorities....

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The German Statistical Office reported that GDP growth in Germany was 0.1% in the second quarter of 2011. This compares with GDP growth of 1.3% in the first quarter. This is slower than Italy which came in at 0.3% for the second quarter. France had no growth in the second quarter. The German Statistical Office said the causes were: lower household consumption and construction investment, imports rising faster than exports and a buildup of inventories. Analysts at Commerzbank say the warm spring resulted in construction activity starting earlier and taking out some of the growth in the second quarter, in its absence the growth would be 0.4% for the second quarter. The statistics office said an additional 553,000 persons were added to employment compared to the prior year, with a total of 41 million employed.

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This analysis of coal use using graphs shows a clear move away from coal in the world, except for two growth markets China and India which account for 60% of the increase in coal use since 2008. India has gone black in its shift to increasing use of coal. China has begun the shift away from coal to address the smog over large urban areas, poor air quality and health impact of coal use. Because China used five times the coal used by India in 2017, the overall impact in China and India is showing a shift away from coal to hydropower, other renewables including solar energy. It is likely that India will make the shift following China's example in the future. 

The trend is clear when one looks at the incremental terawatt hour and where it comes from. The shift is clear to renewables, hydropower, and non fossil uses in the rest of the World and China which account for most of the coal use in the world.

 

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Francesco Gurrerera, Money and Investing Editor for the WSJ points to the risks in the U.S. and global economy in April 2012- overdependence on the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, not enough "de-leveraging" of financial institutions after the 2008 global crisis, and the increasing risk associated with individual investors and businesses investing in risky securities in search of yield in a low-interest rate environment.

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This report in the Economist points to the improved situation for Mexico after the scare from Trump's plans to build the wall and deport large numbers of immigrants. The peso dropped by 15% between mid November 2016 and January 2017, but has since recovered, and non-oil exports were up 5.5% in February 2017 over prior year with the manufacturing growth in the U.S.  Growth forecasts are now up from about 1% GDP growth previously to 2% for 2017, close to the 2.3% in 2016. Much of the change in mood in Mexico is a result of the failure of the early travel bans being blocked in the courts, the failure to get health care legislation through Congress, and the effort by the trade advisers and economic advisers around Trump to move Trump's positions more to the centre and closer to traditional Republican party positions. Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, says " a sensible agreement" can be reached with Mexico. Peter Navarro, trade adviser, talks about making "a mutually beneficial regional powerhouse." Robert Lighthizer, a veteran from the Reagan days, is likely to be made the new U.S. Trade representative. Still as the Economist points out the "20% border adjustment tax" continues to be supported by Paul Ryan in Congress to pay for tax cuts. But certainly the mood has lifted in Mexico in the first 100 days. This is true for economic policy in relation to China and Germany, and the close circle of Ross, National Economic Council head Gary Cohn, and Secretary of State Tillerson is moving Trump to the centre in policy statements to get things done. Mexico is faced with internal challenges of reestablishing the rule of law, improving infrastructure, reducing red tape and corruption, addressing problems in the education system, to promote economic growth. These challenges may prove to be as large as the external challenges were once thought to be. ...

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Joe Nocera talks to experts like Simon Johnson at MIT. Johnson says that when he talks to other experts, after a two minute discussion, they say we should just nationalize the banks. Here Christopher Whalen, a veteran bank analyst, of Institutional Risk Analyst, and Joshua Rosner of research firm Graham-Fisher, say the same thing, with the phrases, lets get on with it or just do it. Says Simon Johnson, thats what we told emerging market countries, Thailand in 1997, or Russia in 1998, when he worked at the IMF. He says we told them to close down some of the banks, and take over the others, and inject government capital. He adds its the best practices, and its straightforward. So asks Nocera, is Geithner talking about the stress test banks will be subjected to, as first step preceding nationalization, more of a calculated approach to gradually introduce the idea of nationalization. But he isnt sure, as Geithner also told David Brooks of the NYT, that governments were not so good at managing banks. No one knows for sure. But says Nocera thats exactly what the government did to solve the S&L crisis. And the man who was former chairman of the FDIC, and helped run the program for the Resolution Trust Corporation, says the government did a pretty good job of it, taking over banks, replacing top managers and directors, and stripping out the bad assets and selling off the now healthy banks to private buyers. So can it be done again and will it be that hard? Yes, its been done before, and its not that hard say these experts. Every month that the administration and Geithner procrastinate puts the banks in a deeper hole, and will mean more layoffs and a worse crisis, even years taken to recover. What he has'nt mentioned is that even if after some procrastination the government gets around to doing it to clean up the mess, there is one added complication this time that is different than what happened with the S&L crisis or with the Swedish cleanup, or the Japanese cleanup after 2003, this time the global economy is caught up in the crisis which makes recovery that much tougher....

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Germany's Economy minister Zypries warned that Germany would take legal action by taking the case to the World Trade Organization if president Trump imposes tariffs above that allowed by WTO rules. She said this before a meeting at the White House between president Trump and Chancellor Merkel. The U.S. is Germany's largest export market with 107 billion in imports and the U.S. exports 58 billion euros of products to the U.S. Zypries accepted that the large trade surplus of Germany was "a problem," but that America "needs our machines and industrial plants" for the time being. Germany has insisted that it does not provide unfair advantages to its companies, and that German companies were simply more competitive. Trump has focussed largely on China for anti-competitive practices, though he mentioned BMW by name during the campaign. In the last 2 years the euro has depreciated significantly against the dollar giving German companies competitive advantage, largely as a result of the ECB- in opposition to German economic policy- trying to stimulate the economy of other southern eurozone countries such as Spain, Italy and France. ...

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This view from Udo Bauer of DW.com about the Berlin elections says the result with the CDU and the SPD each losing about 6-7% of the votes cast is more about the unpopularity of the CDU candidate Henkel and the SPD candidate Muller. He says Muller had about the charisma and appeal of a paper clip compared to the previous Berlin Mayor Klaus Wowereit who showed vision and assertive action. Other local issues were important in the election including crumbling infrastructure and dissatisfaction with services. The AfD won about 14% of the votes with its appeal to voters opposed to the refugee policy of chancellor Merkel. Yet Bauer thinks, like the Republican party in the past this could be a passing phenomenon, after voters have expressed their grievances about chancellor Merkel's "we can manage it" on the refugees. Something Merkel now says people read too much into. The SPD too has a lot to reflect on for handling local issues, says Bauer.