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Green Mountain's share price fell 48% on May 3, 2012. It has fallen 75% since fall 2011 after climbing fivefold in the last three years. The situation has changed for Green Mountain, the maker of the Keurig single cup coffee product, with two of its patents on K- cup coffee expiring and Starbucks plans to launch a high end espresso brewer. Green Mountain, based in Waterbury, Vermont, acquired Keurig Inc. in June 2006 for $100 million. Its Keurig single cup brewers and K cup coffee packs have taken the largest market share, with Kraft Foods Tassimo product struggling. Green Mountain continues to grow, with sales of Keurig brewers and accessories increasing by 21% and K- cup sales up by 59% in first quarter of 2012. Profits were up 42%. Investors and hedge funds are short selling the stock, or waiting for the price to decline, and a quarter of the shares traded are being "shorted," according to FactSet.

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Within minutes of the SNB's decision to lift the cap on the euro the Swiss Franc surged 30% against the euro and 18% against the dollar. FXCM, retail currency broker, suffered severe losses and the company needed a $300 million investment from Leucadia National Corp. to survive. Citigroup and Deutsche Bank AG each had losses of $150 million. Hedge Funds Discovery and Comac also suffered losses. FXCM losses stem from use by FXCM clients of borrowed money, along with higher leverage the company also has lower margin requirements. Interestingly FXCM fought CFTC efforts under Dodd-Frank legislation to limit leverage to 10 to 1- saying "it would have a devastating impact and drive it overseas." The limit finally set at 50 to 1, meant that an investor could borrow $50 for every dollar he put in of his own. The leverage meant large losses for inexperienced investors and threatened the survival of FXCM in a matter of minutes.

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Failing schools with poor teachers, and no examination system to keep out teachers who lack training and education, are a major problem for Mexico. It was part of the education reforms passed in Congress in 2013. A week before elections the militant teachers union CNTE has mounted protests to prevent this from taking place. The Mexican government of president Nieto temporarily suspended examinations as a result of the protests. This article in the Economist magazine says this affects the credibility of the government's committment to the reforms Mexico needs to become competitive in the global economy, and could affect how investors see the reforms being implemented for the oil industry. It also questions the autonomy of independent bodies setup to implement the reforms, leading to a statement by the National Institute for Education Evaluation(INEE), clearly setup by Congress to implement this reform, that this violates the constitution. Can this happen to the telecom and energy regulators, whose authority could be undermined in other ways, say critics....

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Greece gets strong demand for its bond offering in April 2014. A sale of 3 billion euros of bonds maturing in 2019 attracted 20 billion euros in demand. The yield on the 5 year bond was 4.95%. This is the first longer term bond sale since 2010. The yields on bonds issued during the depths of the eurozone crisis for investors had yields close to 20%. This is a huge turning point for Greece's recovery, and shows tangible progress for the efforts of the Samaras government to stabilize Greece's finances and restore growth. With yields on 10 year U.S. Treasury debt at record lows of 2.64% in April 2014, this brings Greek bond yields to within a little over 2 percentage points of U.S. Treasuries, something that would have been unthinkable only one year ago at this time. It also helps stabilize the entire eurozone, after years of turmoil and riots in Greece created the possibility of Greece's return to the drachma.

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Denning uses the Brazilian government's scrapping of a 6% tax on foreign purchases of bonds to slow the slide in the value of the Brazilian currency, the Real, to point to the changed situation today for Brazil, India, Turkey and S. Africa. Current account deficits in these countries are high, and foreign investors sentiment about emerging markets may be affected by the street protests in Turkey, reducing inflows of capital. The mining worker protests in S. Africa and the street protests in Turkey, have led to a decline in the currencies of the two countries. The Fed's quantitative easing program may be coming to a close, which would reduce the flows of capital to emerging market countries. Turkey has seen a boom in domestic credit supported partly by foreign capital inflows. The current account deficit to GDP ratio for Turkey is expected to be 7.28% in 2013, for S. Africa 6.46%, and Brazil 3.25%, according to IMF forecast.

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Schneider points out that the IMF opposed the original deal in Greece rejected by the Cyprus parliament that taxed small depositors. The IMF rejected that deal on the grounds that small depositors should be protected and this would set the wrong precedent for eurozone countries. Other reports in the WSJ show Germany chancellor Angela Merkel also opposed taxing small depositors. It could very well be that after agreeing to the Cyprus demands for reducing the losses for larger depositors- including large deposits of Russian investors using Cyprus a an offshore tax haven- by taxing small depositors at 6.875% of their accounts, the patience of the IMF, ECB, and Germany with the Cyprus government was waxing thin. In the final deal the IMF, ECB and Germany insisted that only deposits larger than 100,000 euros should take losses, and that the economy based on offshore tax haven and lax banking laws had to go.

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FDIC program for loan modification at IndyMac Bank. About 3500 loans were modified, and 15,000 borrowers contacted in recent weeks with offers for lower affordable monthly payments. FDIC's innovation is to create a comprehensive program with clear guidelines so that a lot of loans can be modified without doing it on a case by case basis which would take too long. Loans are modified by reducing interest rates and the principal amount so that the payments are affordable each month, and the FDIC has come up with 38 to 40% of the previous monthly payment as about the right amount. It also looks at tax information to verify earnings. There have been complaints about the responsiveness of FDIC Indymac call centers which may have inadvertently turned down some homeowners looking for help. A big problem is that the FDIC can do little for loans sold to other investors so that out of 653,000 loans serviced by Indymac Bank only about 47,000 are eligible for FDIC modification program. ...

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At 79 years, Wilbur Ross will be one of the oldest people serving in any administration, as he serves as Commerce Secretary in the Trump administration. Wilbur Ross is best known for the turnaround efforts in the steel industry. In 2002 he acquired LTV Corp, a third largest steel producer in the U.S. facing tough times and legacy costs, for $125 million in cash and $200 million in environmental liabilities. In 2005 he sold his International Steel Group to Arcelor Mittal for $4.5 billion, and is still an independent director on the Arcelor board. Ross's earlier experience was as a bankruptcy specialist at Rothschild Inc. in the 1970's working on restructurings at Texaco, TWA and Continental Airlines. Analyst Charles Bradford is cited in this report by WSJ's John Miller, who competed with Ross in restructuring proposals for failing assets, and describes Ross as working harder and being tougher to make the deals. Some of these restructurings involved cutting pensions and large layoffs. The entire U.S. steel industry faced problems from foreign competition and legacy costs at the time. This included representing bondholders for Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City. At the time Ross told creditors considering seizing the asset for a possible missed payment that it would be better to keep Trump in charge for Trump properties as they would be worth more with Trump inside. This led to Ross later providing critical backing for the Trump campaign and raising money from the business community. Mitt Romney had similiar work at Bain Capital in turnaround of failing companies, later turning to politics as Governor of Massachusetts, and 2012 Republican nominee for president. Both Romney and Ross have come under criticism for their role in cost cuts at companies involving layoffs and cutting worker benefits. ...

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Zero covid lockdowns have added to the sentiment seeing China as a less attractive location for foreign investment. American companies are seeing staff resign due the lockdowns and zero covid policy. About a fourth of companies in a US Chamber of Commerce survey see a 20% drop in sales in 2022. A similar situation is being seen for European companies in China. The other area of growth from property sector is not working anymore as there is a 59% drop in demand for new property units. Investors in the property sector fear  another situation like that of property developer Evergrande's collapse.  Similar to Japan by 2000 a lot of the government infrastructure for roads and rail and automobiles has already been built leaving less room for this sector to kick in. Investments are possible in AI, renewables, electric cars, and advanced technologies, with limited potential to tackle loss of jobs in other sectors such as construction and government financed infrastructure spending and in retail stores. Retail sales are hit by inflation and high gas prices. The result is that China's GDP may fall by 1% according to one estimate for this quarter from the previous year. For growth and foreign investment look to India where a surge in government financed infrastructure in construction of roads and rapid transit, fast rail, construction of housing, and rapid increase in use of mobile phones, automobiles, and appliances is taking place. A new logistics system is being built with a Master plan for the whole economy under Gati Shakti creating a whole new place for foreign investment in a country of 1.3 billion. With Indonesia and Bangladesh closely related to India this is a market of 1.8 billion people far surpassing China and built on values of democracy ingrained over 100 years since the experiments under the British of elected state assemblies. This happened under limited Hind Swaraj since 1930's when India was led by Mohandas Gandhi in these early experiments with democracy. Germany, France and the US have a lot in common with India and the ground is being prepared with improvements for extensive German, US foreign investment by the Modi administration.  ...

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Even with the growth strategies of the Abe administration in 2014, projections of the IMF show growth rate for Japan are at 1.0% for 2015, compared to 3% for the U.S., 2.5% for UK, and 1.6% for Germany. The Third Arrow in prime minister Abe's Three Arrows program now follows the implementation of the other two Arrows- monetary easing and public works spending. Abe is faced with the task of convincing foreign and domestic investors that he can implement a winning growth strategy for Japan. The plan announced in June 2014 is an effort to overcome barriers to growth with a strategy that will work. The core of the plan is to cut the corporate tax rate from 35.64% to below 30% in the next couple of years. The corporations are expected to do their part to improve corporate governance and return on equity, so that shareholders, domestic and foreign investors, have more incentives to invest in the Japanese stock market. Analysts and economists say this plan has attractive features. It asks Japanese companies to increase ROE and ROI to global levels through a Tokyo Stock Exchange corporate governance code. Companies listed on TSE and not following the code will have to come up with reasons why they are failing to do so. Some analysts say this would increase the value of companies. Companies are more likely to make investments with cash that is not being invested. The plan includes measures for bringing more women into the workforce, which is seen as a serious committment to women. In addition to increasing the number of child care centers, this plan includes tax revisions that benefit women joining the workforce. Increased representation for women at the executive level is also part of this plan. Hiroshige Seko, a top adviser to Abe, says importance was given to execution for results, so that a score of 80 with definite results was preferred to an uncertain attempt to get a 100. To do this some compromises were made. The plan for special economic zones is still in the drafting stage as discussion is just beginning. A shakeup of the Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives and more flexible medical care will be taken up gradually. The efforts to increase ROI, ROE, and improve corporate governance were initiated from the time of the Koizumi administration, and the latest plan may bring results after over a decade of effort in this direction....

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How ArvinMeritor navigated the treacherous waters of the automotive parts buzsiness since 2000 when the company was formed taking in the automotive business of Rockwell International in Troy, Michigan. The combination was designed to bring the automotive parts business for roof and door systems, chassis and wheel products with the comercial truck business which makes drivetrain systems and components like axles, drivelines and braking systems. The business is in turmoil and ArvinMeritor last recorded a profit in 2005. Here is how they did it. First, the combination provided some linited diversification for the cyclicality of the automotive business passenger cars and trucking together. By 2004 the foreign makers especially the Japanese were taking market share from the Detroit Big Three car makers which only accelerated after that when the Big Three overconcentrated on SUV's and had no competitive car lineup to match the Japanese in 2007 and 2008. The Big three closed plants and companies like ArvinMeritor closed plants also. In the last couple of years first GM and then Ford began to emphasize emerging market countries like China, Russia, Brazil and India. Wagoner GM's CEO in citing improved results in 2008 specifically referred to the $500 million profit in Brazil as making this possible. He also said that when investors see the improved results so early they are forgetting that the model that GM has setup has changed completely from the model that investors were used to in previous years which was a large and growing US focussed market base. Now its a global focussed market base with particular focus on emerging markets. ArvinMeritor has followed this pattern and set up parts plants in new countries like Russia to supply the Big Three's plants there. But it appears from Phil Martens, Arvin Innovation's CEO's statement that only 20% of global automotive sales for ArvinInnovation, the automobile part of the busines that is being setup as a separate company, are coming from the Big Three of Detroit. And 65% of the sales are coming from outside North America. Which suggests that 15% of sales are coming from the foreign carmakers in North America. ArvinMeritor closed 11 plants in North America and the new company Arvin Innovation has 42 facilities in 16 countries with sales of $2.2 billion in fiscal 2007. ...

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Securities backed by Alt-A and adjustable rate mortgage securities are becoming popular with investors seeking higher returns ranging from 7-9%.

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In the first day of trading , GM shares opened at $35, two dollars above the price investors paid in the company's IPO.

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Financial markets and investors now see the uncertainties emanating from tariffs negotiations as temporary and unlikely to affect corporate profits and the US economy says this report in WSJ. When the EU requested an extension with EU president Leyen calling DJT on May 27th, Trump who had said the EU was dragging its feet on trade negotiations with the US, granted her request. Leyen promised to speed up the negotiations with the new deadline of Juy 9, 2025. Trump had called for an across the board 50% tariff on all EU products if the EU continued the lack of response. In this way DJT called the bluff the Europeans were playing seeking to portray the American tariffs negotiations in an unfavorable way.  How did markets respond? The S&P 500 increased by 2% on May 27th when it became clear that a trade settlement was likely to be reached in 6 weeks. Earlier DJT had met with Mark Carney of Canada another key trading partner and come up with an understanding on moving forward. DJT has shown flexibility with advice from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who has experience with and carefully followed financial markets. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ points out that U.S. president Obama made economic inequality "the defining challenge of our time" in his State of the Union address in 2013, yet the U.S. has seen widening economic and social disparities in his two terms- creating the situation where Bernie Sanders is now in a virtual tie in Iowa with Hillary Clinton. It says Hillary Clinton wins handily over Sanders on three of four issues of the most concern for Democratic caucus voters in pre-entrance polls, healthcare, terrorism, and on the important issue of jobs and economy by 51% to 42%. Where she falls behind is on the issue of income inequality, and by a very wide margin reflecting voter disillusionment with policies that resulted in marginalization of some workers through globalization and long term unemloyment, and reduced access to education with high tution costs- there Sanders wins by 61% to 34%. Federal Reserve policies that kept rates low near zero hurt middle class savers, working class savers, and benefitted disproportionately upper class investors in the stock market, widening the social and economic disparities....

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Because of the proliferation of information and content on the internet, it is the services that help users navigate the content that do well not the content producers. This is one of the big reasons for the continuing failure of AOL and Yahoo. U.S. onine advertising went up to $31.3 billion in 2011 from 2010, according to eMarketer. Yahoo's share of U.S. online advertising will decline to 11% in 2011 from 16.1% in 2009. And AOL's dropped to 2.7% from 4.4%, according to eMarketer. The average cost to reach one thousand views on Yahoo in July 1998 was $25 per thousand, it is $6.50 in July 2011, and was $7.65 in July 2010, according to SQUAD Webcosts. Rob Norman, CEO of WPP PLC's GroupM North America, says he is really skeptical about the value Yahoo brings. He sees it as mostly commoditized inventory, and little that has a unique value to users. Analysts say that over time this problem of falling ad rates with commoditizing of content and proliferation of inventories could be faced Facebook by also....

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Ross Sorkin says the information put out in Groupon's IPO filing by the investment banks and other information raises warning signs. Groupon has $225 million in the bank, lost $102 million in the 3rd quarter 2011 on revenue of $878 million. The company has current liabilities of $681 million and only $376 million in assets. It owes vendors $392 millon as part of the current liabilities. Groupon spent $432 million in the first 6 months of 2011 on marketing. Other information shows Eric Lefkovsky, Groupon's chairman, sold a dotcom company in 1999 which went into bankruptcy a year later. And of the $950 million in a pre-IPO round in January 2011, Groupon paid out $810 million to investors and employees. Of this Mr. Lefkovsky and his wife were given $319 million. Goldman Sachs is the lead underwriter behind Groupon's IPO offering. Because of the huge fees involved investment banks and accounting firms were willing to come up with inflated valuations and a questionable metric called Adjusted Consolidated Segment Operating Income, that showed operating income excluding major marketing and acquisition related costs....

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French president Sarkozy, and German chancellor Merkel, announce the decision to seek treaty changes to make fiscal discipline a critical part of the new EU treaties. They issued an ultimatum to other EU countries to decide within a week whether they wanted to be part of a eurozone under this arrangement. In any case France and Germany will move ahead for a tighter union. Merkel stated- "We need structural changes. It is not possible to do this in the framework of the current treaties." Germany secured France's acceptance for having national budgets submitted for review by a supranational European body and automatic sanctions. France secured Germany's acceptance of a way to override this if automatic sanctions are blocked by a strong majority of members voting to this effect. On the issue of bondholders, of private creditors sharing in losses, France and Germany agreed to limit this to Greece. Merkel stated: "Greece is and will remain an exception," to which Sarkozy added, "the message to investors from across the world is that in Europe we pay back our debts."...

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Under an agreement reached by EU finance ministers in November 2010, beginning in 2013 euro-zone bonds will include clauses requiring bondholders to accept restructuring measures if necessary. Germany wanted to see an earlier phase-in period. Both in the Greek bailout and in the measures taken for aiding Ireland, investors were protected from losses resulting from bank failures or government default. As taxpayers in Europe are bearing the cost of the bailouts, and with the rising anger that has resulted, Germany has insisted on bondholders bearing their share of the losses from risky decisions. France argued for flexibility, as a result this was introduced with a caveat. Bondholders could face losses, but only on a case by case basis, witht the IMF providing guidance. Germany has argued that markets need to factor in the risk in their calculations for each country, and this will increase the costs if countries engage in excessive borrowing, as bondholders will have to account for the extra risk. This would prevent the recurrence of the crisis currently facing the euro-zone....

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Frank Rich on the ticking bomb in the banking system and the bank lobbying that has kept reform from happening. Phil Angelides leads the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission which is due to begin hearings soon. But says Rich, Angelides who is following in the footsteps of Ferdinand Pecora who investigated the 1929 crash as chief counsel of the Senate committee that did the investigating, will have to deal with a lot of resistance as he tries to alert the public to the need for action before a new crisis develops. For this to happen there will be aneed for more awareness of what happened, and a serious investigation, and prosecutions where necessary. Interestingly National City Bank was investigated then by Pecora. It is the predecessor of today's Citibank. At the time National City repackaged bad Latin American debt as new securities which it sold eaily to investors who later lost badly. Weill and Rubin at Citigroup made a series of bad decisions at Citigroup leading to huge losses at the bank, for which they have not accepted responsibility....

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The average U.S. light vehicle price was $30,303 in April 2012, up $1219 from the prior year. Incentives were also lower, down $146 to average of $2,446, according to TrueCar.com. This is happening even though cars account for a greater portion of sales of light vehicles. Used cars and trucks prices increased by 3.2% in March over the prior year, according to the Labor department data. Pent up demand is part of the reason. Another reason is the discipline exercized by auto manufacturers, especially the Big Three, in not letting supply exceed demand and therefore not having to offer higher incentives to get rid of inventory. These practices of oversupplying the market hurt the Detroit automakers in the period before bankruptcy, especially GM. Increases in used car prices and higher prices of new cars create a virtuous cycle for automakers to support higher margins. With the high retirement and healthcare costs reduced through bankruptcy and new agreements with the UAW, the Detroit automakers are now better positioned in the market to sustain margins by limiting production to demand. ...

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The Journal editorial points out that the refusal to seriously look at the restructuring of Greece's debt is moving from the amusing to the dangerous. Greek 2 year bonds yield 20%, and credit default swaps are priced as though a default is likely. EU denials continue, but Greek, German EU and IMF officials are conceding in private the need to look at this option. The EU thinking was that openly discussing debt restructuring would lead to capital flight, and better to muddle through than to have Greek and European banks take losses and need further bailouts. The editorial emphasizes the importance of Greece restructuring its debt in an orderly fashion. Financial markets have already priced in the likelihood of debt restructuring. Better to conduct serious stress tests with sovereign default scenarios and let investors, taxpayers and governments respond in an orderly way to this situation. The worst possible situation is a Lehman Brothers type panic. The lack of clarity was the biggest problem with Lehman, and the resulting uncertainty led to the financial panic....

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Carolynn Levy of Y Combinator, a Silicon Valley accelerator that helped such startups ar Airbnb and Dropbox get started, has come up with a way that makes it easier for founders to get early stage funding. This is the 5 page Simple Agreement for Future Equity which she developed in December 2013. So far 274 startups have been financed in this way. Levy says the idea is to make angels investors, not lenders, as this is what promising startups need. Another advantage is the simplicity of the document which one expert describes as easy to understand, and really making the founder experience a positive one. The significant advantage is that it is not a convertible note that accrues debt and interest- the investor who is willing to take the risk gets a promise of future equity when the company goes into a funding round, acqusition or some other liquidity event. If this does'nt happen or the company liquidates the investor gets nothing. A Boston internet startup, Drafted, used SAFE for $500,000 in investor funding....

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Home prices are surging in Australia in 2015, with home prices in Sydney up about 39% since June 2012, according to CoreLogic RP Data. As a multiple of annual income home prices in Sydney are at 9.8, Melbourne 8.7, and Wollongong near Sydney 7.5, compared to 6.1 for New York and 8.5 for London, according to a 2015 affordability survey by Demographia. Australia's surging home prices are happening just as the mining boom that powered its economy is winding down and unemployment is up to 6.1%. Interest rates are down to 2.25%, and low interest rates with speculative purchases are likely to fuel the market up further, say experts. About 40% of home loans approved in Feb. 2015 were to investors, increasing from 31% in 2009, according to official data. According to Australia's Reserve Bank the wealthiest 40% of the population have 75% of the debt. This surge when the economy is feeling the effects of the slowdown in China, and the rest of the world is cutting down on debt, puts Australia in uncertain territory....

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Turkey's finance minister Simsek praises the independence of the central bank, as prime minister Erdogan and the Economy minister Zeybecki put political pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates. Erdogan says the half percentage cut in rates to 9.5% is "a mockery of this nation." Governor Basci of the central bank has said in the past that such calls are part of Turkish political culture and the bank remains independent. Inflation is high at 9.38% and expected to reach 10% in May 2014. The central bank forecast is for interest rates at 8.33% by the end of 2014. India, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia, face high inflation and depend on capital inflows for growth. Analysts say investors are likely to reduce Turkish assets if Governor Basci is forced out. For emerging markets political protests in Turkey, Russia (with the added volatility created by the Ukraine crisis), India, and Brazil, have led to capital outflows and increased uncertainty. The situation is reversing itself in India with the election of a business friendly government and in Indonesia following the recent election....