LyrArc Article Gist
The LDP's landslide victory in the Dec. 2012 elections is not seen as a mandate for Shinzo Abe, the new LDP prime minister. Abe acknowledged this when he said: "We recognize that this was not a restoration of confidence in the Liberal Democratic Party, but a rejection of three years of incompetent rule by the Democratic Party." The LDP won 294 seats compared to the 308 seats won in the landslide win by the Democratic Party of Japan three years ago. Abe campaigned on a stronger stance in Japan's disputes with China. Yet he is committed to maintaining relations with China, a key trading partner. On China Abe says: "Our goal is to stop China from making these challenges, but we do not intend to allow an overall worsening in relations." Osaka Mayor Hashimoto's Japan Restoration Party was expected to do well but his campaign lost momentum after joining with Shintaro Ishihara, a nationalist politician. The Tomorrow Party which campaigned on the nuclear issue and anti-nuclear sentiment petered out after voters sensed the impact of electrical shortages and prices. The LDP is pro-nuclear and plans to reverse some of the anti-nuclear steps taken by the DPJ. The Democratic Party of Japan gained only 57 seats, and the former DPJ prime minister during the earthquake and tsunami, Naoto Kan, lost his parliamentary seat. Just as the PRI, a party that held a long monopoly of power was returned to power in Mexico in 2012, the LDP is returning to power, but very dependent on voters aspirations for good governance and its performance in office....

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Prime minister Renzi of Italy resigns after defeat in a referendum to change the constitution. Renzi had said he would resign if there was a "no" vote on constitutional changes to make it possible to pass further reforms. The results show the "yes" vote with about 41% of the vote, and 59% saying "no." About 65% of 47 million registered voters voted. The referendum called for cutting the size of the upper house Senate eliminating some constitutional bodies, and increasing powers at the federal level. Renzi may have made the mistake of making the vote for or against constitutional change a vote for his democratic left party, and not understanding the depth of public skepticism of established parties. Parties such as 5 Star M5S  have appealed to a public skeptical of how economic reforms would help bring more prosperity to the middle class, and a desire to try out new options. Virginia Raggi of M5S was elected mayor of Rome recently and Renzi's referendum move similar to the way prime minister Cameron moved for a referendum on an old issue of euroskeptisim, may have failed to grasp grassroots changes. The irony is that in 2014 elections to the European parliament Renzi's democratic left party won 40% of the vote and was seen at the time as a success, and the same size vote in the referendum is seen as a failure. In a referendum all other parties votes are added together from right to left parties and new parties. In the Brexit vote the Labor party "no" vote including Labor voters who never voted added to the votes of Brexit supporters and the newer UKIP party giving Brexit the slight edge needed. The singular feature of the trend is that working class voters are combining with right leaning voters to upset established parties, in the midwestern U.S., in the north of England, and in the north of France. In the medium to long run this means the left parties are likely to move to realign themselves with their base of support. ...

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Better balance sheets, higher resale values, the trend away from subprime financing, and a lineup of vehicles that give better mileage (even with trucks acounting for 50% of sales) with the shift to lighter crossover vehicles, will help Detroit automakers face higher gas prices. These factors should help prevent a replay of the very serious problems of 2008, when gas prices exceeded $4.00 a gallon and the U.S. faced a financial crisis. At that time in 2008 vehicle sales declined by 18% and truck sales were down by 25%, according to Credit Suisse.

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Year over year rise in prices in January 2022 that contributed significantly to inflation of 7.5% in the US are-

For power up by over 10%, gas prices up over 20%

For groceries bakery, cereals etc up by 1.4%

For housing prices up by over 4%.

For used cars over 40%, new cars over 12%.

Health care services costly in the US far above the other OECD countries not down significantly continuing to burden American households.

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Japan's governing LDP party wins over two thirds of the seats in parliament in a snap election called one year before the end of the term in office. Prime minister Abe's popularity by summer 2017 dropped to about 30%, and yet with a divided opposition he managed to win the election with a large majority. The opposition led by the Democratic Party and Tokyo Governor Mrs Koike fragmented with the formation of new parties, Yuriko Koike's Party of Hope, and the Consitutional Democratic Party. Mrs. Koike failed to keep the opposition united with some missteps including asking for a loyalty pledge from candidates. This election win makes it possible for Abe to get a third term as leader of the LDP and eventually becoming the prime minister with the longest term in office. Abe had a poor start during his first effort as prime minister when he resigned in less than a year. This is a comeback for Shinzo Abe from that difficult period. Yet the constitutional changes to support Japan's Self Defense Forces with the growing threat from North Korea are not getting the same level of support. Opinion remains divided on that issue.  One aspect of this election is that very few women candidates are running for parliament. In contrast to the election in Britain with more women running for office and getting elected, in Japan's 2017 snap election less than 10% of candidates elected are women. ...

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The average round trip airfare to Europe has dropped to about $650. With the end of revenge travel prices are returning to lower levels. Airlines are adding capacity and additional flights to Europe from the US which should further ease prices that stayed high in the summer.

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If Morse's thinking holds and crude prices drop to $90 range per barrel (see the link to Morse) then we have another major problem on our hands as the incentives for conservation diminish and there is less money invested in energy conservation, and investment, effort and enthusiasm for new technologies for conservation also diminishes. This risks the environment and carbon dioxide emissions and keeps sending money on expensive oil imports to Saudis, Russia and the middle east which could be better invested in the US for innovation and R&D or returned tothe public. For energy saving conservation technology investors the drop in incentive through a return to cheap oil or expectations of prices that are below $100 for instance can be the worst of both worlds high prices and low investment says Vinod Khosla. He advocates a floor on the price of oil. Stanford Professor Hillard Huntington, executive director of the Energy Modeling Forum, a group of energy experts, says energy saving initiatives could easily take 4 million to 5 million barrels a day of demand off the market in 10 years from the 20 million barrels a day that the USA uses to heat homes, power industry, and fuel cars, trucks and planes. It would be a huge loss for that not to happen. And this has happened before as the oil crisis in the 1980's became a dim memory once oil prices hit a low of $11 in the mid 1980's after conservation kicked in at the time. The idea then is to have some sort of gasoline tax that would keep a floor on the price of oil that Europe already has. And British Columbia has shown how by having a small tax and returning money to the taxpayers with a $100 check refund and in other ways to small business and other txpayers....

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Prices of Cheerios cereal up 17% on a per ounce basis, General Mills has simply taken out the 10 ounce box and put in an 8.9 ounce box. Kellogg cereal company is doing the same thing as the input costs of grain for its cereal went up by 9%. And retail stores are taking advantage of thhis situation by adding an increase of their own on top of this. And this is going on in many places from icecream cartons to beverage containers, smaller sizes and higher prices. Food prices inflation estimates vary from 4.5 to 5.5% in 2008, and 4-5% in 2009 from Department of Agriculture to Well Fargo's estimates of 6% in 2009 and Farm Sector Economics estimate of 7.5%. Not only are companies raising prices but they are doing so frequently, Alpha Baking Company is paying twice as much for wheat flour from a year ago to make bread and buns, now it changes prices quarterly. This poses an interesting question for the Fed's fight against inflation, does an increase in interest rates mean these companies faced with rising costs of inputs are going to respond by not increasing prices that much? Its the shortage of grain supplies that is driving this food price increases and how would increasing rates make a difference? And most of the inflation is in food and crude oil prices, wage inflation is modest with rising unemployment and a slowing economy....

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Just as new ships to carry freight come on line after years of tight shippinf constraints the economy takes a dive and these ships will be used for what? Cruise ships? Now shipping rates reflect the economic crisis, the basic price of shipping a large container of goods from Asia to Europe was $2800, now its dropped to $700. Prices on the American routes where there is tighter harbor space has dropped to $1500 a container.

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BHP Billiton was known as Broken Hill Proprietary in the 1990's. The largest Australian mining company, it was based in Melbourne and simply known as the Big Australian. It had huge losses in that period - $3 billion in 1998-1999. The turnaround at BHP Billiton comes as a remarkable turnaround for the whole mining sector. BHP made $6.5 billion in profit in the year ending June 2005. Its not just rising Chinese demand that has made this possible. Billiton has taken steps to avoid past boom bust cycles in mining by taking a conservative approach to investing in new mines that might create an oversupply in the market. The company is run buy a banker. CEO Charles Goodyear avoids taking on large risky projects and has announced plans to return $2 billion to shareholders in stock buybacks. Even with this discipline compared to the past, some mining analysts believe the boom bust cycle will occur over time. HP has $10 billion worth of projects in different stages of development. One advantage the mining companies enjoy is the concentration of mining in a few companies- BHP, Rio Tinto, Xstrata PLC. This makes it possible to price aggressively for the nickel, copper, iron ore, and other metals. A 72% price increase was negotiated with steelmakers in 2005. Another part of the transformation is the use of risk-analysis tools. BHP uses "Monte Carlo analysis" to check all potential outcomes once a range of parameters- commodity prices, currency vales, interest rate scenarios- are entered that affect financial performance of a new mine or a new investment. Goodyear came in as CFO under a new team led by Paul Anderson, a former executive of Duke Energy Corporation, after the huge losses in failed copper mining investments in the late 1990's. Even with the recent success and the careful investing discipline there is a sense that things could change quickly if rising demand slows in China and other developing countries. And in that situation this discipline may prove insufficient and the models may only be good as the assumptions and information entered....

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Losses and layoff at Qantas Airways as it faces increasing competition. On domestic routes price competition from Virgin Australia has reduced prices by 20% for business class compared to 2003 adjusted for inflation, according to Australia's Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics. The mining boom had provided Qantas with higher margins in domestic flights to distant locations within Australia. Qantas also faces competition from Etihad Airways, Singapore Airlines and Air New Zealand, all airlines with state backing.

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The supplies of natural gas are making a huge improvement in 2023 over 2022 when the war with Ukraine led to the European Union scrambling to replace Russian supplies with LNG imports. The higher temperatures this past winter in the US and Europe have left ample supplies in storage with the unused natural gas adding to supply. The result prices are now half of what they were last summer bringing relief to people for higher energy prices. Summer prices for natural gas are expected to be about $2.84 per million BTU's.

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The yuan is up 5.5% since the peg to the dollar ended in 2010, reaching 6.469 to the dollar. But this is not helping the U.S. trade deficit. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the price of imports from China are up 2.8% in May over the same month prior year. And the trade surplus for China in the first four months of 2011 is higher than the same period in 2010. What is happening? The improvements in productivity of Chinese manufacturers and the acceptance of lower margins is reducing the effects on trade balance of a small appreciation of the yuan, so that only a fraction of that appreciation is showing up in higher prices for Chinese goods. Also significant is that the yuan's small appreciation against the dollar is not enough to make up for the dollar's fall against other currencies. The yuan is down 8.3% against the euro and has actually declined 3.7% on a trade weighted basis in the last year.

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Kamala Harris describes her vision of The Opportunity Economy in an address at Wake Tech Community College in Raleigh, North Carolina. Like president Biden she wants to build America's Middle Class. When the Middle Class does well everyone does well, Biden says this many times. By contrast she said Trump's plan would cost Americans $3900 a year raising cost of living. Kamala Harris said- "And key — key to creating this opportunity economy is building up our middle class.  It is essential.  (Applause.) The middle class is one of America’s greatest strengths, and to protect it, then, we must defend basic principles — such as, your salary should be enough to provide you and your family with a good quality of life. (Applause.) Such as, no child should have to grow up in poverty.  (Applause.) Such as, after years of hard work, you should be able to retire with dignity.  (Applause.) And you should be able to join a union if you choose. Building up the middle class will be a defining goal of my presidency, because I strongly believe when the middle class is strong, America is strong. " (Applause.) Harris described the vision of president Trump, as a complete contrast- "Now compare what Donald Trump plans to do.  He wants to impose what is, in effect, a national sales tax on everyday products and basic necessities that we import from other countries.       That will devastate Americans.  It will mean higher prices on just about every one of your daily needs: a Trump tax on gas, a Trump tax on food, a Trump tax on clothing, a Trump tax on over-the-counter medication.       And, you know, economists have done the math.  Donald Trump’s plan would cost a typical family $3,900 a year.  ...

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Prince Mohammed bin Salman, son of the Saudi king Salman, oversees economic policy. He says stock sales of 5% of Saudi Aramco will be used to create a sovereign wealth fund of about $2 trillion that would help create the jobs with income from overseas investments and projects at home. About three times the jobs created in 2003-2013 will be needed with the demographic changes, according to McKinsey consultants. This will act as a diversification away from oil income dependence.

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Japan's prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is taking carefully planned steps during his second effort as prime minister. Abe is determined to avoid the mistakes of his first effort. This time Abe has focussed on the economy and getting Japan moving again. Nationalist policies are moderated and not allowed to affect trade and economic relations with China. Abe is focussing on winning the upper house elections and creating the stability that eluded other prime ministers.

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Christoph Hasselbach of DW.com says the idea of European Union brings so much good for Europe that it should not be diminished by use of pressure or punishment. He refers to the firm opinion in Brussels, of Mr. Juncker and Merkel, that there can be no cherry picking when it comes to remaining in the EU. This led in Jan. 2017 to British prime minister May saying Britain would not go begging to Brussels, and would simply opt out of the European Union and the single market. Hasselbach offers an interesting and plausible explanation for the Brexit vote shifting by a small margin to the exit side. He says rightly that uncontrolled immigration fears were used by the politicians supporting exit. Interestingly he says the worries in the UK were not just for current people but for future citizens from the hundreds of thousands of refugees who would become German citizens in a few years. Would they try to settle in the UK- prime minister Cameron failed to provide a convincing answer, says Hasselbach. He is right to point out as we have at Lyrarc that it is healthy to have questions and even some skeptical views about Brussels, that the appeal of the EU must depend on not being dogmatic about it, but being open and willing to accept questions.   ...

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The US is supplying Europe with liquified natural gas so that Europe can cope with a threatened cutoff or slowdown from Russian gas supplies. Much of the LNG that normally would go to Japan, Taiwan and other Asian countries is being diverted to Europe with a threat of Russian invasion of Ukraine. The US, is with Qatar and Australia a major LNG producer. This WSJ report shows LNG tankers entering and unloading at the Gate Terminal in Netherlands, a key point for sending liquified natural gas to Germany. Italy has its own entry terminals for LNG tankers. This will help Europe deal with its winter needs, even though things will be very tight if a Russian cutoff happens. One aspect of this supply of LNG will cause economic hardship in Germany and this is the price of LNG gas which has soared to five times when delivered in the Netherlands compared to US prices. LNG in gas forms shrinks to one six hundredth its size in volume as a liquid, making it possible for one LNG tanker that is about the size of 4 football fields to hold enough gas to power 70,000 homes for one year. Most LNG tankers can be unloaded in one day and go straight into port because some LNG is lost as ships wait. Most of the bottlenecks are further upstream in the reconversion into gas of the LNG liquid and in connecting to the gas grid.  ...

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House prices that went up by 532% in Australia, 602% in Canada since 1990 now face the prospect of decline by 20 or 30% after sharp increase in interest rates by central banks in the US and other countries. US prices were up 289% since 1990 by comparison. The Fed's moves could also lead to a decline in US home prices as mortgages become costlier. As many mortgages are not fixed in Australia and Canada the costs can increase sharply with rising rates.

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China's Xi Jinping meets leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Tianjin, a northeastern coastal city near Beijing. He will meet Putin and Indian prime minister Modi. This is Modi's first visit to China in 7 years. A parade in Beijing will mark the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II with attendance of Putin with Xi. On May 9 2025 Xi attended the parade in Moscow on the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II. 

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19 percent of China's exports went to the US in 2017, in 2024 this is 15%, but wait, the difference of 4 percent it is simply coming back to the US but through Southeast Asia. As a result some of the same issues that puzzled Trump negotiators exist today. China's exports surged 12.7% in October 2024 over the prior year. Biden was facing this situation and had yet to respond to the surge in exports to US. These exports were sent to Mexico and to Southeast Asia to circumvent the tariffs. It is the same situation revisited in 2024 with two other aspects of the Chinese economy-economic stimulus gets smaller and the housing and construction industry has imploded, the economy has slower growth. The overall price level in the US with a 60% tariff plus 10% for all countries would be 0.72 addition to the price level of 1.10 percent today- that is when including the depreciation of China's yuan by 10%. as it did last time. The result would be price level in the US at 1.82%, according to J.P. Morgan. Drag on China's GDP of the Trump tariffs in first term was 0.65% according to one investment bank GS, with 60% tariffs it would be 2%. Trump secured a return of $116 billion or 58% of the $200 billion China said it would buy of US exports. The other 42%- the deal was not completed in the end. ...

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UK prime minister Starmer raises this question twice in parliament QA session about racist attitudes in Nigel Farage's Reform UK party.

“He’s still not condemned the language or taken action against one of his MP’s racist comments, refused to condemn them when asked last week. Reform is dragging our politics into a dark place. This Labour government stands for our patriotic British values of decency, tolerance and importantly, unity. So, it’s for Nigel Farage to explain.”

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The IPO is expected to bring $10 billion and reduce the government's stake to below 50%. The IPO plans for the shares to go for between $26 and $29. For the government to breakeven the shares have to rise to about $50. GM plans to sell 24% of its total shares for $10 billion at the midpoint of the estimated share price. Under the plan, Treasury would sell $7 billion of its shares cutting its stake to 35% from 61%. The UAW trust which pays for retiree health care, would sell $2 billion of its shares. Canada and Ontario would sell about $1 billion of their shares. The government will try to recoup some of the $49.5 billion given to GM.

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The European Union response to Britain's decision to begin negotiations to leave the EU is a tough one that presents serious problems for Britain. EU Council president, Donald Tusk said that no talks on Britain's future trading relationship with the EU could take place till all the issues relating to Britain leaving have been resolved. Included is a bill of 60 billion euros, according to European authorites, for settling British committments in the EU. Tusk also said the EU wanted to see the rights of the 3 million EU citizens living in the EU, and the 1 million British citizens in the EU protected as a priority in negotiations. Without negotiations on a future trading relationship Britain faces tariffs and duties putting it at a disadvantage after the exit. Talks also cannot extend beyond March 2019 or new approval is needed from 27 EU states. The European parliament also has veto rights if the agreement is not seen as strong enough for the EU. Tusk says that Brexit has made the EU more united. Chancellor Merkel of Gemany has also separated exit from future trading relationship negotiations, the second only being discussed after the first is complete. The issue of Scottish independence also hangs in the balance, as the Scottish parliamentary leader Jack Salmond refused to accept prime minister May's point that her own constituency Islington had voted against Brexit yet she was negotiating for the whole of UK- Salmond responded in parliament that not taking Scotland's interests into account after it had voted against Brexit made "Scottish independence inevitable." The EU leaders are taking a calmer approach, in contrast to the more nationalist appeal in parliament to Tory back benches of prime minister May with promises she may have difficulty keeping.   ...

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P&G will continue its strategy of introducing bargain priced brands, even as it developes and markets premium and super premium brands to reach consumers across a whole spectrum of prices. Even with this effort revenue is expected to grow only slightly by 1-2 % in 2009 and 2010.