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Britain's chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, tells parliament it will be difficult for Britain to avoid a recession if Europe goes into a recession in 2012-2013. He also told parliament that British debt reduction will take longer than planned because of the economic slowdown. This means the British public will have to go through two more years of austerity than previously planned, now upto 2017. Britain will need to borrow an additional 111 billion British pounds through 2015. Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts economic growth at 0.9% in 2011, and 0.7% in 2012. Debt as a share of GDP will peak at 78% in 2015, instead of the 71% expected earlier. With strong opposition from the unions and a major strike planned by about 2 million workers on Nov. 30, 2011, the Cameron government plans to go ahead with its austerity measures. This includes eliminating 600,000 public sector jobs, and limiting pay increases for public sector workers to 1% for two years after the end of the current pay freeze....

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Can a company encourage doctors to prescribe a drug for conditions other than what it is approved for by the FDA. Lilly settles with federal prosecutors that it broke fedral laws on marketing drugs and agrees to settlement of $1 billion. About $4 billion of Zyprexa prescriptions are sold each year.

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Eurozone finance ministers meeting in Brussels give Spain one more year to meet deficit targets because of a slumping economy and lower tax receipts after raising taxes. Spain now has till 2014 instead of 2013 to meet the EU's 3% deficit target. Spain can now run a deficit of 6.3% in 2012, down from 8.9% in 2011, without risking EU penalties. The 2013 deficit target is 4.5% of GDP and the 2014 target is 2.8%. Spain can also have $30 billion by the end of July in the event that a Spanish bank needs to be recapitalized quickly.

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Castilla-La Mancha includes the region around Toledo, Spain. It has an unemployment rate of 27% for the 1st quarter of 2012, up 5.4% from 2011, faster than the increase of 3.1% to 24.4% for Spain. Estimates from the University Carlos III in Madrid show economic growth contracting with GDP decline at 3.1% annual rate by the end of June 2012 for Castilla La Mancha. Part of the problem was the lack of credible accounts by the previous administration. Unpaid bills to suppliers were not included in the accounts for the region. When Maria Dolores de Cospedal of the Partido Popular became the president in May 2011, these unpaid bills were discovered and led to the doubling of the region's budget deficit to 7.3% for 2011. Cospedal sees the austerity cuts she is making as a long term approach to preserve education and healthcare. In an interview with Sara Schaeffer Munoz of the WSJ she says reducing debt is the first priority, so that interest rate premiums on borrowing can be brought down. Debt for Castilla was 17.2% of GDP in 2011, according to the Bank of Spain, it was 16.6% in the first quarter of 2012, among the highest of Spain's regions Ms. Cospedal says she wants growth too, but insists that Spain cannot get growth as long as it is sinking in debt. Moody's Investors Service says Ms. Cospedal is strict in executing the budget- a new second hospital slated to be built for 150 million euros in Cuenca with population 56,000 was cancelled and other cuts are proceeding- and Moody's did not include Castilla in the downgrades of 7 Spanish regions in June 2012. ...

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600,000 knee replacement surgeries a year in the US and 30 million suffering from osteoarthritis. The Wash. Post looks at new options which include use of coral that can repair the cartilage in a knee. The coral is part of Agili-C approved by US FDA and developed by CartiHeal. It is made from a calcium carbonate that is derived from exoskeletons of coral that act as a scaffold in the body to help regenerate bone and tissue, says the Washington Post in this article.

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Focus on billionaires and remote parts of the world distract from the vital issues of infrastructure renewal, cost of living and incomes growth that affect everyday lives of Americans. In an economy the size of the US the $5 trillion of billionaires out of a $31 trillion US GDP, is about 15% of the nation's wealth. Many of the billionaires such as at Amazon lead product and service companies that generated new products and services. Five of the top 25 in the US are from Walmart a large retailer in the US, 2 from Amazon, three from Microsoft in personal computers, 3 from chemical industries.This accounts for 13 of 25 or half. Removing these billionaires would take out $2.5 trillion leaving the billionaires controlling 7-8% of the country's wealth. The focus by Bernie Sanders in the US and Jeremy Corbyn in the UK on remote spots in the world and on billionaires distracts from the real issues of cost of living, of incomes of ordinary families, of everyday issues of health and quality of life faced by all. It also does not help in the discussion because of the need to move away from the poor leadership of the Blair-Brown, Cameron- Johnson years and the Bush-Obama years in the UK and the US. Here no ideologies are needed just common sense solutions to common problems that affect lives of all the people, with the cooperation of all the people. ...

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Supreme Court protects parent opt out of LGBTQ stories and requiring age verification for porn sites. Texas was where the civil rights movement got its support from president LBJ, a Democrat and FDR follower. And still Texas vote for the age verification for porn sites was voted for with support being 164-1. Yet Elena Kagan, who was a Harvard legal scholar, now Supreme Court Justice did not support this decision, and offered a flaky and irresponsible dissent- “Carefully drawn age verification laws stand a real chance of surviving.” What about the harm done to minors while the scholars quibble about legal writing. Kagan was in elite schools all her life, Hunter high school in NYC, Princeton Worcester Oxford, Harvard Law School,  and deputy assistant to Clinton, before Clinton's economic aide Summers picked her for Harvard Law School Dean, and Obama picked her for SC Justice. In 2025 these elitist backgrounds have failed, and are failing to address the problems of the Nation in a direct common sense way as faced by ordinary Americans and even by the 164 of 165 members of the Texas state legislature, which is saying a lot. A search shows failure of Google and of AI after search of 10 pages on Google no mention is found that the vote in Texas legislature was 164 to 1. Parents have to protect their rights and 22 states are now passing this law. ...

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Some of the memorable parts of president Biden's speech at the AFL-CIO campaign rally today June 17 that will go with the best of FDR and Lincoln about what America stands for were: "This is America we can do any damn thing we put our minds to. And guess what? We are not going back to the false promises of trickle down economics.  We are going forward. We are going forward." "I really mean. this. I know I'm called a cockeyed optimist, but this is based on history. We're the most unique country in history. We are organized on one notion. Every other country is based on ethnicity, religion, geography. But the United States is based on an idea. The only country in the world based on an idea. Think about it." "Why are we doing it. Because we said, "We hold these truths to be self evident that all men are created equal" (applause)  "endowed by their Creator with some inalienable rights, and among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness." "We've never met the goal. But we've never- other than the Trump administration- tried to walk away from that goal. And it gets better every time we push." ...

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Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, expert on debt crises, and author of "This Time is Different," says China is one of the best examples of the idea that this time is different, with the idea created that somehow China was impervious to the massive build up of debt. The debt is now over 250% of GDP, and this was possible for so long because of the high savings rate of 30% of disposable income and the millions of young migrants moving to cities to work in manufacturing. The growth of shadow banking, opaqueness in decisionmaking, unreliable data, use of local government financing vehicles, the bubble in housing with a large portion of loans tied to the real estate market, all combine to create serious problems that will take a long time to sort out. Rogoff says the crisis in Tianjin with the deadly explosions in the port area, and the government's inability to provide answers to questions from a alarmed public, only added to the uncertainty and loss of credibility. Rogoff says he hopes the trillions of dollars in reserves will provide China with the tools adequate to tackle the debt problems before they spread to other countries....

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A former Defense Minister of Japan serving twice and senior member of parliament of the LDP, says Japan's arrangement in Asia with the US is for a team approach. This means if the US acts to defend Taiwan, Japan is likely to join the US. creating a wider war engulfing Asia. It is in this context that the G7 conference in Hiroshima, the nuclear war museum, and others, need to broaden the approach to give people everywhere in the US and Asia a chance to understand all narratives of all the countries involved. Including in this case China's as a country subject to invasion by colonial powers, so that all the narratives can be fully understood. There is a reason for this and that is that the 18th 19th and 20th centuries offer a poor example for prevention of nuclear war. China, Japan and India share a common connection to the two thousand years old Buddhist and Vedantic ideas no matter how bruised they were by colonial powers. They offer many openings for the Chinese, Japanese and Indian people in their common history of Buddhist thought and pathways, to find a common ground. ...

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There are about 181,000 homeless in California one third of the total in the US. This $6.4 billion bond issuance for borrowing funds was approved by just over 50% of the vote. It will go to create more affordable housing so badly needed in California's out of control housing prices. People tended to think nothing works and out of apathy did not vote. But the scale of the problem required effort at the state level or federal level with funding in the tens of billions of dollars for affordable housing. This is the first time that this has happened even though Silicon Valley and capital markets have wasted hundreds of billions of dollars in dubious companies and projects that have contributed little to the standard of living and ease of living of the American people, including essential infrastructure and health, education services. The dilapidated and crumbling infrastructure, of subways, streets and bridges in New York City is another aspect of the same problem of serious, serious lack of affordable housing in California. It also creates the kind of class divisions in society that FDR-Truman-Kennedy sought to remove since the 1930's. ...

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How third party candidates in 2016 put Trump in the White House is shown in graphs in the WSJ. Since 2000 about 2% of the vote goes to third party candidates such as Greens, Libertarian, and others, in 2016 this reached 6%. It hurt Clinton the most as the Trump lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was merely 5-10% of 200,000-300,000 votes for independent candidates in Wisconsin,  in Michigan and in Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton lacked clear focus in her campaign and her years as overseas traveling foreign minister left her out of touch with the alienation of the working class and fragmentation as Silicon valley tech and financial interests intruded into the Democratic party. This had the effect of muddying the focus on the Democrats FDR/Truman working class base and also with America's rural voters suffering from a toxic mix of problems. In 2024 the Kennedy candidacy takes as many or more votes from Mr. Trump says the WSJ. The Biden focus on workers and families gives the Democrats a clear direction along with wage gains by union labor and a resilient economy with low unemployment. This suggests that the independent candidates may not find more traction than the 2% of previous elections since 2000. ...

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As George Osborne of the Tories once pointed out China does not want to be thought of as a sweat shop on the Pearl River. And particularly not in a British attitude. How hard does China work is a question Tom Phillips tried to answer Oct 6, 2015 from Beijing for The Guardian. The migrant workers are the ones who work the hardest. And productivity is low. Among the higher classes there are longer hours with the work pressures, family obligations and long work hours leading to insomnia, fatigue, obesity, and ill health conditions. A comparison shows Britons working 1677 hours on average according to the OECD. The average Chinese worker is shown to work 2000 hours, by a researcher at Beijing Normal University. A labor economist in Beijing says as the economy improves and working conditions get better workers are working fewer hours every year. He says China lags behind in productivity. The longer working hours he says are not good for worker's health and for productivity. This was said in 2015 when China was still chasing GDP growth without the level of technology the US and Europe had. Now the focus has shifted to better quality growth in advanced technologies and old factories closed. ...

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Half of the 17 percentage points of lower investment in Britain between 2016 and 2023 came from administrative barriers with EU and of Brexit. Britain had deindustrialized and hoped to get growth from so called "clever industries" such as finance, media, and higher education. The Tories party led by Johnson and then Sunak painted a rosy picture for Britain leaving the European Union and doing better without it by working with China and the US and connecting to global supply chains. They ignored the actual facts of the globalization cycle reversing itself leaving Britain exposed in the storm.The slump in investment from Brexit hit Britain hard, the Ukraine war meant higher prices for energy imports from Norway and the US. The result is that only about half percentage point of 2 percent cumulative GDP growth in Britain between 4th qtr 2019 and 4th qtr 2023 came from jobs growth compared to about 3.75% in the EU economies. Eurozone growth at 4% was twice that in UK, and the US with higher productivity and job growth was growing at four times that in UK and twice that in EU at 8% over this period. ...

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Readers critique the Wash. Post on its coverage of 2024, 2024-2028 policies and vision, and president Biden. They ask is the Post itself turning into social media with crass titles and misleading coverage? The Post itself says it is in the subtitle sometimes patting sometimes stabbing. One reader says on the different reporters coverage of Biden after the NATO Summit that it was nothing more than a dogpile, that it is not what he reads the Post for. One obvious question for the Post is with all the passion you show on climate change action, is the absence of climate action for 4 years, and exactly the opposite its exacerbation not likely to impose a huge cost in 2028 for the American people of upwards of a trillion dollars to correct? Is the Post listening or just another billionaire run organization running against the instincts of Carl Sandburg- the author of the Lincoln biographies found even in the libraries of Asia forgotten in the US-  who wrote the famous poem of the nineteen sixties "The People, Yes." Lincoln, TR, Wilson, FDR, Truman, Kennedy are completely erased or forgotten for their policies, their wisdom and their zeal for America. ...

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Using the equivalent of 5 nuclear reactors in energy as Altman pushes AI to do means neglecting the needs for climate change action and for education and healthcare priorities. The huge diversion of funds equivalent to the GDP of European nations is absurd. It would put Democracy at risk even more as literacy shrinks as less and less investment in made in childcare, education and increasing access to education to all, and less and less investment is made in healthcare and increasing access to healthcare, as capital markets are pushed into highly and dangerously distorted allocation of our resources. As shown in the Washington Post article below Andrew Van Dam- about 30% of Americans already read no books at all, or lack the access to books and knowledge to participate effectively with civic preparedness. And could throw the Nation into political and economic chaos without the necessary knowledge for effective participation. Catherine Rampell of the Post shows above that every $1 invested in free preschool day care would return $6 in economic benefits, according to Yale Brown universities study, not counting the educated workforce for the Nation's future. ...

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  In a way that recalls FDR Biden backed dockworkers on wages that fell behind.  Former Fed Governor chief economist at the White House, Lael Brainard, together with the Transportation and Labor Secretaries Buttigieg and Julie Su, with White House chief of staff Zient, all in a Zoom call at 5.30 am with shipping company management in the EU and Asia. Brainard made proposal the shipping companies accepted for 62% increase in wages over 6 years, increasing top wages $24. The dockworkers union Longshoreman's Association asked for 77%, a decent share in the large shipping company profits after decades when wages lagged behind cost of living. Zient told the shipping companies in that Zoom call- “I need the offer today — not tomorrow. I’m going to brief the president in an hour that you believe you can get this done today.” Stein, Duncan and Gurley tell the extraordinary story of how Biden backed the call for raising 45,000 workers wages on the port docks along the East.  Coast. ...

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China reduces US share of exports to 15% from 18% -yet with Vietnam made Chinese goods added in it is 21%. 15.8 million job loss for China from US fentanyl tariffs 2025 from one estimate. Chinese businesses are already feeling this, says WSJ. Exports represent 13% of China's GDP and China had redoubled its export effort after the property bubble burst. There are 2 drags on growth property crash and exports tariffs. China has less room for stimulus in 2025 and the government is focusing on bottom line thinking to prepare for hard times. Already companies are cutting shifts and laying off 10-30% of workers in garment, toys and other basic industries. President Xi is preparing for a long struggle reminiscent of how Mao led China to fight the US forces under Gen. McArthur in the 1950's Korean War, says the WSJ. In the past the state subsidy system worked to take huge share of new industries such as semiconductors, smartphones, solar, electric cars. This will be harder now with less money available to invest and drive out competition, and with the US and EU making their own products boosting their industrial and manufacturing base. ...

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China plans $29 billion of local bond sales (200 billion yuan) through the central government, to meet the needs of cash strapped local governments. Its proceeds would go to projects approved by Beijing, for airports, power plants and railroads. In earlier year local governments depended on land sales as abig source of money. China's tax system sends most revenue to the central government, while provincial and municpal governments are left to handle most of the spending on education and healtcare, which is why these needs may not be getting the funding they need. Land sales are now drying up as asource of money as the property market declines. This does not mean that the local governments are not indirectly taking on debt. Chinese law prohibits cities and provinces from taking on debt without Beijing's approval, but companies owned by local governments have borrowed heavily to fund public works projects. Shanghai Chengtou Corporation, a municipal government company that builds infrastructure has taken on 200 billion yuan in debt in 15 years. Economists say this kind of debt may be 20% of annual GDP, which added to the central government debt of 20% of GDP, would bring the combined debt to 40% of GDP. What this new effort does is make the taking on of new debt official and more transparent. The principle behind the earlier tight control of debt issued by local governments was to prevent local governments going overboard and the central government having to take responsibility, as happened in the 1990's in India, Mexico, Russia and in the USA....

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The choice of new Federal Trade commission chairperson shows that president Biden is making a complete break from the Obama era White House and the favor Tech in Silicon Valley had under Obama, says this report in the WSJ. Antitrust probes by Justice Department and FTC are expected to limit power of tech companies. Ms. Lina Khan is new head of the FTC. Biden says "its just wrong" that Amazon pays little in federal taxes. This report says Mr. Obama feted Silicon Valley at a White House festival called "South by South Lawn."  And that 80% of the 334 people registered to lobby for Apple, Amazon, Google last year previously worked on Capitol Hill or the White House. 

Mr. Biden's Families plan and Jill Biden's commitment to education are more in line with the heritage of FDR and Harry Truman, even Eisenhower, presidents who fought on behalf of the working men and women of America.

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A copy of the letter Mr. Trump sent to Mr. Erdogan of Turkey telling him " don't be a tough guy... don't be a fool," to invade the Kurdish zone in Syria. He says history will judge him, that he should "not let the world down." 

Turkey sent forces into the Kurdish zone even after the letter from Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump said that it was a bad idea getting involved in the Middle East that trillions of dollars had been wasted. He made exceptions for keeping the Straits of Hormuz open and flow of oil from a commercial standpoint in providing assistance to Saudi Arabia and Aramco, something the U.S. has done since FDR administration.

It also says Mr. Trump has worked hard to help Turkey. And admonishes Erdogan saying "I don't want to be responsible for destroying the Turkish economy- and I will."

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The Commerce Department released revised figures of GDP growth for the first quarter that showed 0.4% annual rate of growth, which was revised from an earlier estimate of 1.9%. This is startling news because of the extent of the decline in this revision. The GDP growth estimate for the second quarter of 2011 is an annual rate of 1.3%. Economists at IHS Global Insight and Capital Economics point to lower growth in the remainder of the year if Congress cuts spending immediately and the prevailing uncertainty leads to businesses holding off on investment. Inflation adjusted consumer spending increased just slightly by 0.1%, as consumers are paying higher prices even if they spend more. The Commerce Department report also shows that the impact on the auto industry from supply chain disruption in the aftermath of the Japanese earthquake was not as bad as expected earlier. This means say analysts that the bounce from auto industry recovery will not help growth in the remainder of the year.

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James Pressley reviews Simon Johnson and James Kwak's new book - "13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown. " He suggests reading the first and last chapter for what the authors recommend, limiting banks to no more than 4% of GDP in assets or $570 billion maximum, and investment banks to 2% of GDP or $285 billion. Pressley agrees that incremental steps are not going to change the situation. And the authors have thought this thing through, with Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the IMF and writer of the Economix columns in the New York Times on the current crisis in Greece, Portugal and Spain. Some of their analysis on that crisis has been borne out by developments, as Greece lurched towards default with the slow response of Germany enlarging the dimensions of the crisis, and requiring a larger bailout for Greece of $160 billion in late April.

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Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, on the European crisis. Things he says to watch, whether the Greece problem is treated for what it is, which is a solvency not a liquidity problem. The current solution he says relies too much on fiscal cuts which can end up worsening the recession, and keeps Greece under a cloud that will further reduce new investment and lead to drops in GDP, and the increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio for Greece is likely. He calls defending Greece's high debt not something that can be defended with the actions taken to date. Other things to watch are whether ways can be found to limit the damage for European growth and the world economy, and whether serious steps can be taken to limit market swings that are a result of investors again overleveraging themselves. See other expert opinions Shiller, Grantham, Roubini. As in earlier comments he sees slower growth ahead.

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Simon Nixon looks at the different scenarios for Greece as it faces snap elections on Jan. 25, 2015. He makes the point that unlike the situation in 2012 Greece's debt after considerable adjustment with creditors now looks sustainable. The nominal debt to GDP ratio remains high at over 170%, yet says Nixon, the long term average interest cost is about 2.3%. He even cites hedge fund Japonica Partners analysis showing Greece's debts valued on a discounted cash flow basis under international public accounting standards at a debt to GDP ratio of about 18%. Alexis Tsipras's left coalition if elected is likely to moderate its demands and continue with EU programs for Greece to restore confidence in financial markets and lower the interest rates on debt- including removal of special tax treatment exemptions and pension reforms. Support for EU membership remains high in Greece and Tsipras is likely to change his program to adapt just as Samaras and New Democracy Party did when it was elected....