LyrArc Article Gist
Aaron Back says this time China is likely to feel the effects of the volatility in the stock markets. The surge in the stock markets added about half a percentage point to GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2015, according to Capital Economics. GDP growth in the 1st quarter 2015 was 7%. Capital Economics says removing the boost from the stock market to a sluggish economy would mean a loss of 1 percentage point in GDP growth. Equity issuance was one way China hoped to reduce high debt levels at companies, and that avenue would the be that much harder to access to reduce debt levels. Margin financing is about $354 billion, or 3.5% of GDP according to Goldman Sachs, posing another source of problems and potentially affecting growth if stock losses lead to defaults. Declining investor sentiment and confidence in management of the economy would be another casualty in this situation. Only 10% of Chinese households own stocks compared to 50% in the U.S., yet Aaron Back says the effects of this are likely to be felt in lower economic growth and shaken confidence in the economy....

LyrArc Article Gist
Diesel prices are regulated and subsidized by the Indian government, but gasoline prices are deregulated since 2010, resulting in gasoline costing 64% more than diesel in India. As a result buyers are staying away from gasoline cars and shifting to diesel creating distortions in demand. The government is considering a tax on diesel cars and SUV's of between $3000 to $4600 to correct the distortion. Because lower income people woud be hurt by increasing the price of diesel it continues to be subsidized. Because of the uncertainty car manufacturers are shutting down production to reduce growing inventory of gasoline vehicles. High interest rates of 12% on car loans also reduces demand. Suzuki Maruti sales declined 6% in May 2012, Ford and GM showed sales declines of 14% and 20%. The year ending March 2012 shows Indian car sales growing only slightly by 2.2% to 2 million cars. Sales were rising at 29% only about a year ago. Gasoline costs 68 rupees a liter in New Delhi after a 11.5% increase in May 2012, compared to 41 rupees per liter for diesel. The increase in gasoline prices is a result of the government having difficulty paying the rising imports of oil, costing $141 billion for the year ending March 31, 2012. The sharp slowdown in the car industry and the problems in the energy sector have affected India's growth rate....

LyrArc Article Gist
Comments about immigration policy by Donald Trump, candidate for the Republican nomination for president in the 2016 election, create uneasiness in Mexico. Trump says he would block the billions of dollars that illegal immigrants from Mexico in the U.S. send back to Mexico, and deport millions of Mexicans in the U.S. illegally back to Mexico.

LyrArc Article Gist
Vegetable prices in China went up by 22% in July 2010, from a year earlier, and grain prices went up by 12%, eggs by 8%. About a third of household budgets go to food in the budgets of people in India and China. Wheat prices are climbing on world markets after the ban on Russian exports, and rice prices are also climbing with the floods in Pakistan ruining the rice crop- Pakistan being the No.3 world's rice exporter. Personal spending accounts for 36% of overall GDP in China and 57% in India. Food prices in China were up 6.8% in July, 2010. Industrialization in China, and agricultural land freely taken over for factory sites with the consent of local authorites, may be a complicating factor. See the link to BYD's acquisition of agricultural land for factory site.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke tells a IMF conference on financial crises in Nov 2013 that the unemployment rate of 7.3% does not reflect the problems in the labor market, which require strong action to improve job creation. He says the level of student debt is a serious issue that also needs to be taken into account.

LyrArc Article Gist
Toyota reported a 77% drop in earnings in the first quarter of 2011, with a large loss in the Japanese operations. The strong yen trading at 81 yen to the dollar is a significant factor. And for the first time Toyota's CFO Satoshi Ozawa said "we have reached the limits of profitable Japan based production at 80 yen to the dollar." Japanese operatios lost $2.4 billion. Honda reported a 38% drop in earnings for the 1st quarter.

LyrArc Article Gist
Brenner of McGill University and Fridson of S&P say the Bernanke Federal Reserve in the U.S. is doing what President Truman and Treasury Secretary Snyder did in the war and postwar years- paying down the U.S. debt as cheaply as possible by inflating the money supply. There are no new monetary insights here, and even though the policy is maintained outwardly as one to promote economic growth and employment, the main focus is to keep the cost of paying down the debt as cheaply as possible with low rates. This hurts savers and retirees earning very little on savings. They cite Bernanke's writings that show he is imitating the policy of the war years when the U.S. held down interest rates and succeeded in doing this for a decade.

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman points out that the U.S. Federal Reserve's forecasts in March 2012 show the U.S. will experience low inflation and high unemployment for many years. These forecasts are in sharp contrast to the expectations in the equity markets based on an uptick for a couple of months of unemployment numbers. The Fed's own statements suggest the improvement in hiring may be temporary and a response to the overreaction in hiring in 2009-2010 to the financial crisis, and not a lasting improvement. The Fed pointed out that the long term unemployed are at about 40% of the total unemployed and the share of the population that is working in March 2012 has barely budged from 58% in 2009.

LyrArc Article Gist
The ratification of the European Union's Fiscal Treaty of Dec. 2011 will require a two thirds majority in both houses of parliament. The coalition government of Angela Merkel lacks such a majority. This means the support of the Social Democrats and the Greens party will be needed to pass the treaty in Germany. The Social Democrats parliamentary leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier, says he cannot "picture an approval of the pact without growth-boosting measures." The Merkel position of strict austerity policies in tackling the eurozone debt crisis has come under intense criticism for lack of growth boosting measures. Recent economic performance clearly in Greece and Portugal, and to some extent in Ireland, Spain and Italy, shows the decline in GDP with austerity cuts alone will worsen the deficits or lead to a prolonged period of economic stagnation.

LyrArc Article Gist
A worldwide trend to shorter term borrowing means that institutions and sovereign governments will compete in the capital markets, as they try to roll over existing borrowing by 2012. The US has $1.3 trillion to roll over by 2012. Worldwide about $5 trillion has to be rolled over, and of this $2.6 trillion is in Europe. With the European financial crisis which started in Greece it is becoming harder for sovereign governments to borrow in capital markets at favorable rates. A former economist of the Bank of England says this is of the highest importance for lending and for growth. The implications are reduced lending by banks to businesses and consumers, reducing output and growth, and limiting reductions in unemployment. It is a big issue say analysts, as debt needs to be rolled over over shorter periods. Moody's study shows new bond issues by banks during the last 5 years matured at an average 4.7 years. The stress say experts is likely to be on the less healthy banks like the savings banks in Spain, Landesbanks in Germany. Stress tests on European banks will be out July 23, 2010....

LyrArc Article Gist
Chancellor points out that economists from Irving Fisher in 1929 to Ben Bernanke in the mid-1990's have often played the role of academic shills during each successive period of "This Time its Different, " claiming that there was some new event, technology, or innovation, that justified higher valuations of assets and higher institutional debt levels. He quotes Walter Bagehot who says about merchants and bankers of his day-" they fancy the prosperity they see will last always, that it is only the beginning of a greater prosperity." The significance of the book is that it suggests an hypothesis that is quite different from the general idea in 2011 that there won't be a protracted period of slow or marginal growth after a bubble of this nature. Because the bubble is also in other countries, in countries of the euro-zone, China, Turkey, Brazil, and other countries, the situation takes a much longer time to heal.

LyrArc Article Gist
Spain's national statistics agency confirmed that the Spanish economy contracted by 0.3% of GDP in the 4th quarter of 2011. The central bank of Spain predicts the economy will contract by 1.5% in 2012 if Spain makes spending cuts to meet the defict target committed by Spain with the EU of 4.4% of GDP. The deficit was 8% of GDP in 2011 and the new Rajoy government announced cuts and tax increases amounting to 1.5% of GDP. A separate IMF report predicts a 1.7% contraction in GDP of Spain in 2012. Opposition party leader Rubalcalba says Spain should renegotiate its deficit target with the EU in the light of the expected contraction. Spain's prime minister Rajoy hinted he would move in this direction.

LyrArc Article Gist
Indecision and policy missteps by the government of prime minister Manmohan Singh of India. Divisions within the Congress political party and its allies in parliament stalls moves to attract foreign investment in the retail sector and leads to a general paralysis in the government in 2011-2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
Canada is joining a club of nations that are dependent on exports of raw materials to China for growth- Australia, Brazil, Malaysia and Peru. This means that Canada's central bank takes its cues from demand in China, India, Korea and other emerging economies when it sets rates. With Canada's growth at around 3.1% in 2010, Canada's central bank is expected to increase rates gradually even as the U.S. keeps its rates low.

LyrArc Article Gist
Analysts point out that there is not much room for austerity cuts in Italy and Spain without cutting into muscle. This is because these countries have moved to make austerity cuts much earlier. Their budget deficits are actually less than what they were when they joined the euro currency zone. In the case of Italy the budget is actually in surplus, to the amount of 2% of GDP, when the financial position excludes interest on debt. And Italy has now moved to reduce the deficit to 3.9% of GDP in 2011. Under pressure from the ECB Italy has announced its aim of balancing the budget by 2013. Because both Italy and Spain have growth rates estimated at below 1% for 2011, analysts believe it is important to emphasize growth.

LyrArc Article Gist
Alex Frangos and Sudeep Jain's interview with Duvvuri Subbarao, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank. India's economy is slowing with higher inflation, higher interest rates, inability of the government to make firm decisions on foreign investment, a declining currency, and a growing deficit. Subbarao has come under criticism for keeping interest rates low for too long after the 2008 financial crisis, and then as higher inflation persisted making a number of interest rate increases in 2011, which reduced the credit flows in the Indian economy. Subbarao's defense of his policy of not acting earlier on interest rates and then raising interest rates repeatedly, is that the economy need stimulus in the years after the global financial crisis. He says the inflation in the early stages was a result of a supply shock in food prices and would not have responded to interest rate adjustments. Inflation declined from 9.1% in November 2011 to 7.5% in December. Subbarao says the interest rate increases are over and he is looking for the right time to increase credit flows in the economy. His remaining concerns are with the fiscal deficit, and he called on the finance minister to map out what he plans to do for the fiscal deficit. He expects the deficit for the current fiscal year to increase from 4.6% to 5.5%, as the cost of fuel subisides rises and tax receipts decline. He calls for the removal of subsidies on liquified natural gas and electricity, but concedes that this will be difficult in an election year. Looking back Subbarao sense is that the central bank's policy actions were well calibrated....

LyrArc Article Gist
India's crude oil imports were sharply higher in 2011 and 2012. India's imports of crude oil for the first 11 months of the 2012 fiscal year ending March 31, show a 40% increase over the same period in 2011 fiscal year. India's import bill was $128 billion for crude oil imports for the 11 months of fiscal year 2012. Indian subsidies to lower prices for fuel are $30 billion annually. The higher prices for crude create inflationary presssures in India and restrict economic growth.

LyrArc Article Gist
Feldstein, adviser to the Romney campaign, refutes the assertion based on computer models that the Romney Tax Plan of a 20% across the board cut in taxes cannot be paid for by limiting the deductions of high income tax earners. His own analysis based on IRS data, shows taxpayers with adjusted gross incomes of over $100,000 made itemized deductions of $636 billion in 2009. By taxing these deductions at a 30% marginal rate, additional revenue of $191 billion can be raised to pay for the Romney Tax Plan's static revenue loss of $181 billion. A smaller revenue loss of $148 billion is predicted based on increased incomes and taxes from the behavioural effects of lower taxes on earners. He says this was the thinking behind the Reagan tax cuts of 1986 and the Simpson-Bowles commission plan that would generate economic growth by reforming the tax system's distortions.

LyrArc Article Gist
EIA figures show U.S. stockpiles of crude oil, refined fuels and other petroleum products increasing to 1.149 billion barrels in the week ending Jan 2, 2015, excluding the strategic petroleum reserve. This is the highest ever since 1990, except for June 2013. Brent crude drops below $50 a barrel.