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The paradox during the opioid crisis of American companies conducting business and trade in and with China on a magnitude never seen before in history disassociated from their own neighborhoods in the US is nowhere more evident than in this crisis. A similar paradox between the government in China disassociated from American communities and local stores that import its products and keep workers employed in China in the case of China. And the paradox of the American government allowing any action whatsoever of this type that affects communities in the US and continuing business and trade as normal exists today. It has the impact of eroding public confidence in the relationship between two countries even as it damages the fragile situation of communities in the US hit by lack of investment in infrastructure, in manufacturing, health, and following the pandemic in incomes. It shows the danger of business and trade operating in a vacuum or compartmentalized not aware of everything that is happening in societies and communities that surround it. In any case it is the communities and the land that always exist even as businesses trade patterns change, or take different forms, and some disappear. ...

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The sympathy Mohandas Gandhi had for the textile mill workers of Lancashire and their admiration for him is shown here in the Indian Express. Gandhi visited one Lancashire mill in 1931and was received with much enthusiasm with the crowd saying "Three cheers for Mr. Gandeye... hip hip.. Hurrah!" When British elections were called in 1945 the workers of Lancashire voted for Labour and Mr. Attlee and turned out Mr. Churchill. Mr. Attlee immediately started the negotiations for Gandhi's Hind Swaraj, the independence of India. This is a reminder of how Mohandas Gandhi would have viewed the globalization of the last 2 decades that ripped out manufacturing communities in the US and Europe in what is now seen as a failed supply chain that failed American workers and families. As the US and Europe build a new supply chain with the partners in the Free World including India, with the countries of Latin America, Asia and Africa, only the foundations of the new supply chain that build a better life for American, European and foreign workers and families is sound in principle and deserves the Free World's support. ...

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The astonishing fact about America in 2023 is that 90% of people in retirement are insecure in retirement with less than $100,000 in savings, and 50% have no savings at all.  A situation like this would be impossible when America led the world in manufacturing in the 1960's and savings of a majority of Americans in today's dollars were higher multiple times. A tiny one tenths of one percent have around $5 million and 4% have over $1 million savings in retirement. This report in WSJ by Dagher and Tergesen shows that only 3% of Americans have saved $1-5 million and one tenth of one percent have saved $5 million plus in retirement. People shown here are  software salesperson, pilot, surgeon, veterinary practice specialist. About 4% have savings of $500,000 to $1 million. 18% have savings of $100,000 to $500,000 of which the greater part of this number are closer to $100,000. This reveals the shocking fact that in today's America in 2023 only 10% are income secure, the rest 90% are income insecure, of which a shocking 50% have zero savings. ...

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WSJ interview with Narendra Modi before he meets Joe Biden at the White House. This interview talks about India seeking larger role in world affairs, about Indian democracy. Seen from inside India the perspective is different. India is at the same stage where China was in 1990-2000 with the rising aspirations of a billion people, Japan in the Meiji period in 1900. It is all about jobs, investment, technologies and manufacturing on a scale that surpasses China in that period with newer technologies to meet the rising aspirations of 1.4 billion people. China's trade with the US was three times higher than the Indian trade with the US in 2022, India desperately wants to catch up and fast. The Danish ambassador to India was asked what he saw in India today and he said it was the rising confidence of people that struck him most. The digitalization that has changed the way government benefits are provided to 1.4 billion people and opened bank accounts for all, provided delivery of services to all parts of the population. The infrastructure that is being built at breakneck pace, and new colleges and universities expanding access to quality education, healthcare.   ...

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Lost decade term has generally referred to a lost decade from austerity policies in UK or the EU, or after the 2009 financial crisis from bad banking practices. Here the term is being used in error as investments in China have not benefitted all classes equally in China leaving the hinterland and rural areas behind, and worse has decimated America's and Europe's industrial manufacturing base destroying in its course the financial livelihoods of communities everywhere in the western world. Biden in US and Xi in China are well aware of this and their policies are intended to change the direction of the US and China towards reducing disparities in income and ensuring fairness, new goals after the pandemic. The American people and the US economy has little to gain from increased investment in China when the homeland can easily absorb investment of trillions of dollars after decades of missteps, mistaken wars and adventures overseas, neglect of infrastructure needing to be rebuilt. The damage of the environment in China and in North America and the world alone shows that the hyper growth in China was a bad idea for the American and Chinese people and the people of Europe and of the world. ...

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This report in WSJ shows a generational problem that is creating a shortage of workers in Vietnam and China, that will require factory owners to increase wages significantly. US and European government policy supports these higher wages so that some of the manufacturing can be returned to bring jobs back home.   Younger workers do not want to spend much of their lives behind factory walls, and prefer less strenuous jobs shorter working hours in the services sector. They are having fewer children and at later ages than parents, resulting in less pressure to work in their 20's for a steady income. Factories in Vietnam are offering glass walls, yoga classes, improving cafeteria food, and offering kindergarden for worker children to attract workers.  In China there is 21% urban youth unemployment at a time of factory shortages. South Asian countries such as Bangladesh have infrastructure problems, and in India factories are finding it difficult to sign up workers. In the next 2 years this will result in costlier goods in US and EU, over 3-5 years this will bring many jobs back to the home countries. ...

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China reduces US share of exports to 15% from 18% -yet with Vietnam made Chinese goods added in it is 21%. 15.8 million job loss for China from US fentanyl tariffs 2025 from one estimate. Chinese businesses are already feeling this, says WSJ. Exports represent 13% of China's GDP and China had redoubled its export effort after the property bubble burst. There are 2 drags on growth property crash and exports tariffs. China has less room for stimulus in 2025 and the government is focusing on bottom line thinking to prepare for hard times. Already companies are cutting shifts and laying off 10-30% of workers in garment, toys and other basic industries. President Xi is preparing for a long struggle reminiscent of how Mao led China to fight the US forces under Gen. McArthur in the 1950's Korean War, says the WSJ. In the past the state subsidy system worked to take huge share of new industries such as semiconductors, smartphones, solar, electric cars. This will be harder now with less money available to invest and drive out competition, and with the US and EU making their own products boosting their industrial and manufacturing base. ...

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The WSJ's Iliff and Luhnow's interview with Emilio Lozoya, CEO of Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX). Lozoya says about the new oil law that allows foreign companies to compete with Pemex, as something that should have happened decades ago. President Calderon of the PAN party pushed hard for this, but failed to get the support of the PRI during his term in office 2006-2012. It made sense for Mexico because President Cardozo (1997-2002) of Brazil already set a successful example by doing this for Brazil's state oil company, Petrobras. The main point is that competition is good for Pemex, and good for Mexico and Mexicans, and Lozoya emphasizes this. Under the law Pemex can keep oil fields it already has and have the first pick in future fields. Pemex is expected to partner in oil field exploration in deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico where it needs the technologies of foreign oil companies. Under the new rules Pemex will have 2 years in which to make the transition to a well managed business enterprise. A new tax code works to increase nonoil tax revenues, so that Mexico does not depend on Pemex profits for one third of its budget. It also gives Pemex autonomy and control over its budget, and lowers its tax burden to international levels. This frees up badly needed resources for investment opportunties to increase Mexico's growth rate. Lozoya says the investment budget could be increased from $25 billion to about $30-$35 billion as a result. He gives a list of badly needed projects not taken up by Pemex for lack of funds- developing natural gas from Mexico's large reserves where Mexico imports its natural gas from Texas increasing the cost of manufacturing, building pipelines where Mexico transports fuel by truck which is 15 times more costly, making its own fertilizer and petrochemicals instead of importing it in a country where 60% of farmland is not fertilized. There is so much to be done that Lozoya realizes his main challenge will be execution. Enormous responsibility rests on Lozoya's shoulders to get the execution right. Pemex has 160,000 employees and crude oil sales of $130 billion in 2012. He has a Masters degree in economic development from Harvard and managed investment funds in New York before this position. Cardozo also picked an investment banking professional for the job of recharting the course of Petrobras and attracting foreign investment....

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Comments on X that cause difficulty for DJT chief of staff Susie Wiles to keep a clear narrative and the loss in the Wisconsin SC election are leading to a sense that Elon Musk could be a political liability. DJT focus is on the midterms and keeping the majority in the House, which is also why Elise Stefanik was asked to not accept the job of UN Representative and remain in the US Congress. The immediate focus is on tackling the Tariffs Liberation Day action April 2, 2025 so that followup negotiations with about 50 countries including major ones with Japan, Taiwan, Israel, Britain followed by European Union, South Korea and other nations. This would reassure markets as country after country is developing a new trade relationship that respects US manufacturing goals. China could then be tackled as a special case with America limited to loss of $146 billion in energy and grain sales which would be diverted to Europe's energy needs and farmers could be given a $50-100 billion support package. China would then have to find a way to preserve its $1 trillion surplus without the American market  which would require it to find other markets, and create a domestic market, if it chose not to negotiate and accept American manufacturing goals. ...

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The large 11 point margin for State Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz, a Democrat, shows the effect of the issues of women's rights to abortion and of democracy are having in the state. She promised to use the new 4-3 majority in the Wisconsin State Supreme Court to nullify Wisconsin's 1849 abortion ban and overturn the state's gerrymandered Republican friendly legislative maps. It also shows the changes in the midwestern states. In Chicago Brandon Johnson came from behind to win the Mayoral election calling for new taxes and a vast program of social programs, in addition to a community involvement effort to fight crime over a candidate that focussed on the crime issue and policing. Happening in the same week these two elections give president Biden  more confidence going into the 2024 campaign that people in the midwestern states understand Mr. Biden's approach of investing in people and infrastructure with higher taxes, and rebuilding American manufacturing and technology, protecting worker rights and incomes. ...

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A Brooklyn, New York resident who created his own job during the pandemic. A neighbor gave him a used bike she was getting rid of. He sold it online for $400. This gave him an idea- he now pulls bikes from garages and barns all over the U.S. and restores them to new. Because of the virus related manufacturing slowdowns for bicycles, and people preferring bikes to trains demand has jumped. U.S. bicycle sales at $2.6 billion up 81% and use of city bicycles up 141% in New York city for Citibike- with single trip pass buyer at 516,000. Mr. Van Scyvoc a 33 year old Brooklyn resident collects bikes around Cleveland where his father a retired firefighter lives and takes them by pickup truck to a bike stand he has at Fort Green park in Brooklyn. There he sells bikes bought for $80 to $250 for $300 to 500. First he has to have them washed clean and then serviced in Brooklyn by an IT engineer who now repairs bikes.

 

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During the first term of the NDA government two programs were launched to restart the Indian economy- one was Make In India, and the other was Skill India.

This report in Indian Express looks at Skill India, its history and goals, and progress. 

For Skill India to meet its ambitious goals of training "a minimum of 300 million people by 2022" much remains to be done. The quality of training, the active participation of industry and manufacturing in the training, the setup of vocational training of high quality in schools, has to be the focus of new efforts. Lack of results in meeting the needs of unemployed young people, is also because of the lack of growth in the industrial sector. For this to happen getting rid of the problems of non-performing loans has to be speeded up, partly through recapitalization of banks, and partly through other methods. 

 

 

 

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The record shows that like other industrial states such as Illinois, Michigan and Ohio, Massachusetts lost many manufacturing jobs during the period 2003-2007, when Romney was Governor of Massachusetts. At the end of 2002 there were 338,000 manufacturing jobs in Massachusetts, by 2007 this had declined by 12% to 298,000, according to Andrew Sum, an economist at Northeastern University. Romney cites a drop in the unemployment rate from 5.6% to 4.7%. Prof. Sum who heads the University's Centre for Labor Market Studies, says this was people left the workforce during this period in large numbers. He says only Louisiana of all U.S. states had a bigger decline in the labor force when it was hit by Hurricane Katrina. The dot com bubble burst during the period before Romney took office. Massachusetts had already lost 158,000 jobs in 2001-2002 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Romney was unable to do much to reverse the job losses that continued during his term in office.

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Geely's plans for Volvo are to build a presence for Volvo in China. This includes plans for additional local manufacturing facilities. One near Shanghai, another in Chengdu, and another being considered for Daqing. Each plant would produce 100,000 cars, with the Chengdu plant nearly complete and the others still to be built. Geely has received $444 million and $148 million respectively from the municipal governments of Daqing and Shanghai. Geely executives pointed to the need to upgrade Volvo's S80 sedan to compete with the likes of Mercedes Benz S-Class and BMW 7 series. Volvo hopes to sell additional cars to the Chinese government and state run companies. Risks associated with expanding car manufacturing were cited by Chen Bin, senior official of the China National Developmet and Reform Commission, at an auto industry conference recently. He said the combined capacity to build cars in China for all companies willl reach 31.24 million vehicles by 2015, up from the 13.95 million vehicles at end of 2009. ...

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Boeing is working out pricing on its new 777X jet to include the fuel efficiency savings made by airlines using the new aircraft. The new plane would save 20% more fuel per seat than the current 777 jets. Airlines spent $210 billion on fuel in 2012. About half the cost of a long range flight is on fuel.The Dreamliner price is at about $290 million. The 777X could be priced around $400 million, with discounts bringing this down to above $200 million for the 400 seat aircraft. Earlier pricing efforts by Boeing on the 787 Dreamliner were based on manufacturing costs going down with a significant portion of work done by suppliers. After problems in manufacturing, supplier issues and the learning curve, Boeing will take a more conservative approach to pricing this time without the steep discounts in earlier periods. In pricing the A320neo EADS passed on half of the fuel efficiency savings to buyers, and only half added to the price.

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India's currency is one of the hardest hit in emerging markets. India's rupee dropped by about 14% in 2018. India increased import duties by about 10% on airconditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and other categories for a total of $11.8 billion in imports in fiscal year ending in March.

India sees the possibility that with rising trade tensions between China and the U.S., president Trump increasing tariffs on Chinese imports, some of these Chinese exports to the U.S. could be dumped into the Indian market. The Federation of Indian Export Organizations sees the move in a positive light that it would help the rupee, increase local manufacturing and lead to foreign investments. India's current account deficit increased to 1.9% in the year ended March 31, 2018, from 0.6% a year earlier.

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JP Morgan CEO Dimon, says the lack of enough worker training is hurting the U.S. with unemployment one or two percentage points because of this. The lack of enough training efforts by business and government to add technical skills to workers existing skills is resulting in many jobs going unfilled in manufacturing and other fields.

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Contrast the slow US vaccine export response with that of India, Russia, EU and China. Only in May 2021 after India's daily Covid cases were close to 400,000 a day did the US make a serious offer of vaccines to other countries in need of assistance. U.S. president Biden says that 80 million vaccine doses would be exported by the end of June 2021. The WSJ says citing Airfinity, a London research firm, as of May 10 more than 333 million doses of vaccine were produced by the US and only 3 million vaccine doses were exported. Contrast that with the European Union which has shipped 111 million doses overseas one third of its total production, Russia which has exported 27 million doses.  India has exported 66 million doses according to the Ministry of External Affairs website as of May 17, 2021. This includes 4 million doses to Brazil, 4 million to Nigeria. Within its own region Bangladesh received 10 million and Sri Lanka 1.2 million doses, Afghanistan 1 million. Mexico received about 1 million doses. In Africa the Democratic Republic of the Congo which has suffered from many epidemics including Ebola virus received 1.7 million doses, Nigeria 4 million doses, Kenya 1 million, Uganda 1 million. Of the 66 million about half of it is a direct grant assistance and Brazil, Mexico, Morocco received all vaccine as grant assistance, 70% of Bangladesh's is grant assistance. The list on the Ministry of External Affairs site of the Government of India shows 95 countries including many of the most struggling nations of Latin America and Africa, bringing hope to countries which are struggling to hold onto hope for a better life beyond the pandemic. Sending help overseas through vaccine supplies is suspended for the moment but will resume in July after India has pulled in all of its pharmaceutical manufacturing industry under a government guided effort to go all out. Never has so much help bringing much needed hope gone to so many countries of the world in the twentieth or twenty first century from a nation that is struggling to meet its own needs. The US in pursuing a US first policy of vaccinating all its citizens has not taken into account the need to bring this evolving vaccine technology into the hands of as many qualified pharmaceutical manufacturers as possible. This in a rapid response to expand manufacturing capabilities to meet world wide demand. The risks of not doing so were not taken on early- the very same way the virus spread in January to March of 2020 can be repeated as people travel around the world particularly for tourism, business family reasons. This risk takes on anew dimension of contagious mutations of the virus which are 50% more- the Indian variant being 50% more contagious by some estimates than the UK variant, which itself was estimated to be 50% more contagious than the original one.  The result a pandemic that stretches out indefinitely unless billions of doses are made in a short timetable to beat the timetable of Nature through the coronavirus. India is doing this for the first time with plans to produce billions of doses by engaging the whole of the Indian pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in the effort in a rapid response so that July to December would see 1.2 billion people vaccinated. The US effort, the European effort is left to the individual effort of pharmaceutical makers in the US and Europe, not a government guided effort to engage the entire pharmaceutical industry of the US and Europe in a rapid response timetable of 2-6 months.  ...

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Indian salary growth is expected to be 15% a year and salaries for professionals doubling every 5 years based on GDP growth for Vikshit Bharat 2047 of 12% per year. This is why India will seek to limit migration to legal migration only and further limit the brain drain by creating attractive opportunities in India, including ones from GCC's or global capability centers of foreign corporations in India that are expanding as US reduces its overdependence on China for manufacturing and returns jobs and factories back to the US.

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For the first time in decades the U.S. trade deficit with China is falling significantly. China's exports to the U.S. dropped 12.5% to $296 billion in 2019 from $323 billion in 2018, according to Chinese customs data. Actually China's trade surplus with the U.S would have fallen even more had not the U.S. exports to China declined by 21%. With the Phase 1 trade deal negotiated recently U.S. exports to China will increase significantly, while 25% tariff on $250 billion in Chinese goods still in place limits China's exports. This means in 2021 and 2022 and years ahead China's surplus should shrink much faster achieving one of the principal goals of Mr. Trump and his trade negotiator Mr. Lighthizer. Mr. Lighthizer was chosen by Mr. Trump for having accomplished a similar goal decades back in the eighties with Japan's surplus. Even though China has not stated this in writing, American officials have said China will increase purchases of American goods and services by at least $200 billion over the next 2 years from 2017 levels. China and the U.S. have essentially agreed that the two economies so tightly intertwined works to the detriment of the U.S. with the Chinese surplus creating tensions. China will now have the European Union as the largest trading partner followed by south east Asian countries, and other regions. China decided that its priority is technological development and was unwilling to meet U.S. demands to reduce its efforts for technological competition and access to western technologies. Instead opting for shifting it economy away from dependence on exports to the U.S. in a gradual way. The other demand of the U.S. for stopping state subsidies is also a concession China is not willing to make as it sees it as an economic feature of its business model that is working and a competitive advantage.  This leaves the U.S. with a limited win so that trade and resulting jobs can be brought into favoring the U.S. a key Trump goal, and not a win in the technological competition with China which will continue. ...

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Toyota's market share in China is about 5-6%, lagging behind GM and VW. After a "willful pause" since 2012 when Toyota ran into quality issues following an aggressive expansion in manufacturing, Toyota is beginning to make investments in new assembly plants. New assembly plants will be built in Mexico and China with a $1.25 billion investment.

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Following the events in Charlottesville where a car drove into protesters, president Trump's remarks seemed to equate the actions of white supremacists to protesters. This has led to strong criticism from the business community with most business leaders withdrawing from the president's advisory councils from the business community- the Strategy and Policy Forum,  and Manufacturing Council. This includes the CEO's of Johnson and Johnson, Merck, JP Morgan Chase, GM, GE, 3M, and other companies. In his response president Trump disbanded both councils. JP Morgan Chase CEO Dimon said of the president's remarks- 'Constructive economic and regulatory policies are not enough and will not matter if we do not address the divisions in our country." Members of these councils had hoped to use their presence to have a voice. Yet by August 2017, 6 months into the Trump administration this appears to be changing, with CEO's of many companies expressing the view that the Republican policies favoring business would not matter if the basic consensus on tolerance and openness and what the U.S. stands for is allowed to deteriorate. ...

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This report by Timiraos in WSJ describes the tussle between supply siders led by Mike Pence and David Malpass with the zero sum advisors who advised Trump on trade during the campaign. The zero sum advisors are focussed only on how to turn trade to improve the U.S. position and cut trade deficits. The supply siders are trying to show that trade can benefit the U.S. only that it needs to be adjusted so that it works better for the U.S.

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Climate change study from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany published in Nature magazine retracted in December 2025. The study is an example of how such research when not done right can misrepresent situations leading to policy errors. Policy error under such misrepresentation can lead to errors such as a policy that excludes adjustments and a dual response to climate change and cost of living crisis attacking both on two fronts necessary today so soon after a disastrous pandemic and people living in scarcity not able to meet heating bills. What happened is that the study made predictions for 2100- which is impossible to do. Studied 1600 regions in the world. Showed decline of economic output by 62% in 2100. Did not mention that excluding Uzbekistan would make the reduction in growth 23%. It shows how overzealous work in one direction or the other can actually hurt the fight to address climate change and also tackle everday concerns like cost of living crisis. Recent reports in WSJ show how the approach of single focus has hurt economic growth in Germany and hobbled its industries. Other reports show how deprived and less deprived areas in the UK (also in the US) sit by side showing how decades of neglect of manufacturing and outshoring of factories have destroyed jobs and destroyed communities across Europe and the US, making them open to scourge such as fentanyl in the Nation's neighborhoods, and creating a climate of despair that feeds into other fears. Such as the fears of the surge of illegal migration promoted by traffickers and the influx of drug trafficking gangs in the Nation's neighborhoods. Such reports are then used by the World Bank and the Congressional Budget Office and central banks of 90 counties in the coalition Network for Greening of the Financial System, leading to distortions in policy actions, destroying the social consensus needed among wide sectors of the population in democracies in the EU and US and worldwide to address climate change and cost of living crises.  Leonie Wenz, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany says-“We broadly agree with the issues raised, and have made corrections to the underlying economic data and to our methodology to address them. These changes are too substantial for a correction of the original article in Nature.”   ...

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Robert Kagan makes the case for continued leadership of the U.S as a champion of liberal democracy and free trade, as the view that it will just happen in a multipolar world of China, India, the U.S. and Europe, is not credible. The existing democracies- India, Brazil, Turkey, S. Africa, Australia -are weak and lack the experience to provide this leadership. India and China could easily end up in rivalry in a multipolar world. This has implications for today. The U.S. cannot provide this leadership as a services economy- it needs a strong manufacturing base to do this. Lessening inequality was a hallmark of the progress made in the 20th century, and especially the six decades since World War II when the U.S. clearly exercized this leadership. The progress to European unity was another hallmark of these six decades. A healthy Japan was also part of this.