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Apple is in a quandary about what straegy to pursue in the large China market. Apple's pricing depends on its image of bringing in exciting new products. With growth slowing in iPhone sales and lack of new products like the iPhone Apple can go after the market of lower end smartphones to maintain growth. In that segment Apple faces strong competition from manufacturers who make products in-house and have the scale to compete effectively such as Samsung. Other manufacturers such as Lenovo are also surging in this part of the market. Sales figures for the smartphone market give some idea of the problem Apple faces. Smartphone sales for the industry slowed to growth estimated at 41% for 2013, compared to 136% in 2012. In 2014 IDC forecasts growth slowing even further to 17% and by 2015 the smartphone segment looks even less promising with only 12% growth. And much of this growth is likely to go to regional smartphone companies such as Lenovo Group of China, and other brands which are better at competing in the lower priced smartphone segment of below $100, say analysts. Apple sales were 7.9% of the smartphone market in China, Samsung had 15.4%, and Lenovo 13.1%, in the 4th quarter of 2012, according to IDC....

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Brazil's debt at 57% of GDP which is not likely to decline in 2014, is a concern for analysts at Moody's. Heavy spending and lower tax revenues with high interest rates will increase the deficit to 3.7% in 2014 from 2.48% in 2012, according to central bank estimates. Inflation is about 5.98%. Trade surplus is lower at about $2.6 billion for 2013. Brazil's foreign reserves are much higher than Argentina at $359 billion, ten times short term debt, Argentina at 109% of short term debt and Turkey at 84% of short term debt- which protects Brazil compared to its reserves in the 1997 financial crisis.

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The newer generation of SUV's after the 2008 crisis for Detroit automakers. Comparison of the features of the newer vehicles from Chrysler, Ford and GM compared to the older vehicles. Fuel efficiency has increased, but is it enough to meet a change in customer preferences in the face of higher fuel prices in 2011-2012.

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Cost of driving depends on where you live in the US- California (taxes and climate change fee), and mountain states (no inland supplies in West), Illinois taxes are much higher compared to the South and South East (close to refineries no taxes). Specific formulations add extra on the Eastern seaboard states  from New Hampshire to Virginia, and in the West California have requirements to reduce smog and pollution. At one time in the 1980's in Pasadena the smog would be so bad you could not see the green color on the leaves clearly. For most of the US gas prices on April 22, 2026 are around $3.62 or lower compared to $3.92 on average in March for the whole US and $5.83 in California, $5.00 in Oregon, $5.38 in Washington. Texas, Alabama, North and South Carolina at around $3.62 and Florida at $4.00. In Virginia to Maine in the North East it is around $4.00. A look at the map shows that talk of $5.00 gasoline hurting the Republicans in the midterms for Congress is incorrect because the Democrats are likely to hold on to California, Washington Oregon, their base with gas at close to $6.00 the very opposite of what they are saying. Much of it because of state policies against oil refining and climate change taxes, formulations of gasoline that cost more to address smog. The head of the distribution channel for gasoline in the US, Scott Berhang, head of fuel wholesalers marketing group Sigma says- “At some point, [the war] could translate into supply shortages. That could happen. But we’re not really there yet. I talk to my members all over the U.S. They’re not seeing any supply issues. There’s no problem getting fuel. Everything is normal.” State taxes can be as low as 9 cents in Alaska and 71 cents in California, 66 cents in Illinois. The price of gas in swing states Arizona $4.59, Pennsylvania $4.11, Michigan $3.78, Wisconsin $3.69, North Carolina $3.75, Georgia $3.57. If we use $3.61 price of Texas and most of South and close to this in all but mountain states and western states then we are slightly above the same price gasoline was sold at the pump in 2011-2014 of $3.51 per gallon. This is a significant fact considering the media talks about gasoline prices in the US as a significant cost of living issue. Which means saying Iran War is "crippling" US consumers at the pump is farfetched and totally incorrect.  ...

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Swiss voters approve a higher level of surveillance with 65.5%of voters supporting in a referendum in September 2016. This gives the Federal Intelligence Service the power to tap phones, search e-mails and track internet activity to control hacking, spying and terrorist activities. The government of Switzerland supports the measure saying it had to keep up with the higher security measures taken by other western governments. The law giving such powers was already passed in parliament in 2015 but the Green party and Socialist party had put this to a referendum.

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A steady decline in the price of Brent crude from $115 to $92 in the period from June to October 2014. Slow or no economic growth in Europe, and declining growth in China was the main reason. A cut in oil price by Saudi Arabia in September with lack of coordination in OPEC to control supplies when prices are declining, and increasing supplies from the U.S., provided additional basis for price declines. This price decline comes as large energy companies invested heavily in mega-projects to bring more oil supplies when prices were up to $128 by mid-2012. Consulting company EY estimate is that there are 163 such mega projects worth $1.1 trillion underway, most behind schedule and over budget. The projects were based on oil prices being over $100. Oil field development costs are increasing rapidly. Douglas Westwood, a consulting firm, estimate is that productivity of upstream capital spending has fallen by a factor of 5 since 2000, declining by 5% a year, as oilfield equipment and services demand exceeds supply. Greater technological sophistication also adds to cost such as Shell's Nobel Bully platform for deep sea drilling. See link- Noble Bully. Oil majors are now cutting spending, and some planned big projects are on hold. About $300 billion in assets may be up for sale. Shell plans to cut spending by 20% in 2014, Exxon and Chevron 5-6%. Shale oil projects in America need about $57 to be profitable with an internal rate of return of 10%, by one estimate. Yet this is an average and does not reflect differing producer costs. This estimate does not reflect the high cost producers, some of whom need closer to $110....

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Citigroup's CEO Pandit sees growth in its Asian and Latin American businesses in 2012-2013. He cited growing investment in infrastructure and the needs of middle class customers in these countries.

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Krauthammer cites Congressional Budget Office numbers that show the Obama U.S. health care law continues the spiralling costs of health care with new government mandates at a time of severe budget cuts in education and other areas- for 2013-2022 the costs come to $1.76 trillion. The initial Obama administration figures of 10 year costs of $938 billion announced in 2010 reflected the fact that the new U.S. health care law would take 4 years to fully go into effect. Costs after 2021 are shown to be $250 billion each year in the CBO figures. The law is now before the Supreme Court in 2012, which has to decide on the basis of the limits of the Commerce Clause.

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The UK government figures show GDP growth for the 3rd quarter 2012 of 1%. In the 1st quarter the economy contracted 0.3% and in the 2nd quarter 2012 it contracted 0.4%. This news is tempered by the fact that one time factors such as the Olympics accounted for the increase. For the year the results for GDP growth are likely to be flat and only modest growth is expected in 2013.

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With a 6% decline in sales in Europe expected for 2012, the problems at GM's Opel operations are expected to worsen. GM's sales in Europe declined by 2% in 2011. Critics say GM has not give enough attention to Opel's operations. Giving it only an afterthought after being overwhelmed by problems in the U.S. operations, and mostly using the design expertise of its engineering center in Russelheim, near Frankfurt. The Buick Regal is based on the Opel Insignia and the work of Opel engineers. Ferdinand Duddenhoffer, professor at the University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany, says GM has neglected Opel and is not making good use of the manufacturing capacity at Opel. The problem, he says is production management and being able to shift quickly to different models based on demand, and using Opel as part of a global factory network. The repeated restructurings at Opel for 15 years have left this problem unresolved. In his view GM is still in the Middle Ages in this respect.

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Italy's major problem is lack of growth, with growth averaging 0.3% in 2001-2010 compared to 1.1% for the eurozone area. In the 1st quarter of 2011 growth was only 0.1%. Italian bonds yield two percentage points above the yield on German bunds. With growth at the present level, Italy's would see an increase in debt to GDP ratios, according to Barclays Capital. Debt to GDP is currently at 119%.

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Ford Motor opened its new plant in Chongqing, China. It was approved in 2009 and is operated in a joint venture with Chongqing Changan Automobile Company and Japan's Mazda Motor. It has annual capacity of 150,000 cars and will manufacture the redesigned Ford Focus. Ford says this will be part of 15 new models in China by 2015. Further expansion is expected to be slower from now on, because China's policy is shifting towards consoldating its manufacturing base for automobiles- which experienced hyper level growth in the last decade- and not adding new capacity. Ford made a late entry in the Chinese market compared to GM. It sold 519,300 vehicles in China in 2011, compared to GM's 2.55 million vehicles. The change in China's policy may mean Ford has less opportunity to catch up with VW, GM and Toyota in China.

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After S&P downgraded 17% of its Triple A-rated structured finance securities in 2010, the company has faced intense scrutiny about how it rates securities. Mark Adelson joined S&P in May 2008. He is the chief credit officer of S&P, and the man most responsible for S&P's efforts to reestablish its credibility as a ratings firm. He worked for Moody's in the late 1990's, before joining the research team at Nomura Securities in 2001. Adelson made changes to the S&P ratings system for mortgage securities in 2009, which resulted in cutting the ratings of 68% of its commercial-mortgage securities. Adelson also helped set the new S&P criteria on sovereign debt rating issued on June 30, 2011.

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The ruble has stabilized by April 1, 2014 following Russian intervention in the Crimea and western sanctions. It reached record lows of 37 to the dollar from a range of 29-33 rubles to the dollar since 2011. To stabilize the ruble the Bank of Russia says it spent about $24 billion in March 2014. The Russian Finance Ministry held its first auction of Treasury bonds on April 2, 2014 with yields increasing to 9% from 8% in February. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov says the ministry will resume daily purchases of foreign currencies of about $100 million- stopped since March 4, 2014- to replenish its sovereign wealth fund. Bank of Russia head, Ms. Nabiullina, says consumer inflation will exceed the target of 5% and economic growth is likely to fall below 1%. The crisis come at a bad time for Russia as it has slowed economic growth when growth had already fallen sharply in 2013. Russia plans to introduce its own payments system to reduce dependence on Visa Inc., and introduce its own credit ratings system as S&P, Moody's lowered its credit ratings....

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Cost overruns at its Westinghouse nuclear reactor subsidiary led to a $9.1 billion loss for Toshiba in 2017. This comes on top of an accounting scandal in 2015, raising questions about the survival of Toshiba. Toshiba is looking to banks for more time and is considering selling its semiconductor business to Foxconn. Toshiba still holds a leading position in the flash memory chips used in smartphones giving some hope of continuing to stay in business.

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The Putin Trump meeting in July 2018 creates a storm in the U.S. over denials by the Russian president and the U.S. president about any interference by Russia in the 2018 U.S. presidential election. As the New York Times reports all intelligence groups in the U.S. have confirmed the interference. The images of the two presidents saying this just as the Mueller investigation gathers evidence is one more unusual event in 2017-2018, with what was once seen as improbable taking place.

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Sony announced that it was expecting a loss of 110 billion yen or $1.1 billion for the fiscal year ending March 2014. Sony also announced the sale of the PC Vaio computer business to Japan Industrial Partners, a decision he called "agonizing." Another change is splitting off the television business into a separate subsidiary. The projected full year loss includes $690 million in charges for restructuring the PC and TV business, including job cuts of 1500 in Japan and 3500 overseas by March 2015. Currently the mobile phone and Playstation videogame businesses are operated as separate subsidiaries. TV sales are improving in the 4th quarter 2013, increasing by 40%, and operating loss for TV's is down to $48 million for that quarter. Increases in sales of premium priced ultra high definition TV sets improved margins. For the full year TV business had a loss of 25 billion yen. This is the first sign of a change in the TV business. Playstation sales are expected to hit 5 million by March 2014. Overall Sony showed a net profit of 27 billion yen for the 4th quarter of 2013....

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Michelle Obama delivers a rousing speech in Pheonix, Arizona, as she campaigns across the country for Hillary Clinton, saying "they are trying to take away your hope." And by reminding voters Obama lost the state in 2012 by only 208,000 votes or 63 votes per precinct, so voters should not stay home. She tried to revive the 2008 campaign theme of "hope" of the Obama campaign in that year.

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Toyota showed a net profit of 290 billion yen or $3.71 billion for its fiscal first quarter. With its sharp rebound Toyota keeps it forecast of net profit of 760 billion yen, operating profit of 1 trillion yen, and sales of 22 trillion yen for the fiscal year through March 2013. Toyota set its annual production for the calendar year at 9.76 million vehicles, an increase of 23% over the prior year. By comparison General Motors showed second quarter profit of $1.85 billion, a decline of 38% from the prior year quarter, and Ford at 1.04 billion, a decline of 57%, with both companies showing losses in Europe. Toyota has smaller European sales as part of total sales. In the U.S. market Toyota expects market share to reach 14%, an increase of 1.1% from 2011, according to Takahiko Ijichi, senior managing officer.

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The WSJ provides a fact check of Trump statements on crime, debt, and taxes. Trump says he is looking at a new plan for taxes not the $10 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years reducing tax collection by 22%, but something about a third of the size. No details are available on the plan. WSJ disputes Trump's statement that the U.S. is "one of the highest taxed nations in the world." WSJ points out that the U.S. in 2014 for federal, state and local government taxes collected 26% of gross domestic product in taxes, compared to average of 34% for about 30 countries, according to OECD. Debt to GDP ratio is about 75% that is high, but because of low interest rates the budget deficit is less than 3% of GDP, which is close to the long run average. For this reason economists say the government should invest in infrastructure and R&D that supports long run economic growth. On crime the record is mixed with increase in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City, but decreases in Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Police shootings were 67 in 2016 compared to 62 in July 2015, and the high being 280 officers in 1974 when Nixon was President. Crime was an issue in the 1968 Republican National Convention during the Vietnam era protests, police shootings and terror incidents attracted attention in July 2016, yet the situation today is very different from the war protests of the Vietnam era. On terrorism fact checks by the NYT and in Lyrarc shows Clinton at State Department and Panetta at Defense Department taking hawkish stands only to hit a barrier from President Obama for taking action needed in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Panetta's new book calls for robust action where needed. A Clinton administration would take action with allies in the Middle East. Even Hollande and Obama who pulled the U.S. and France out of following up in the French-British Sarkozy-Cameron led intervention in Libya, have changed policy, with Obama calling it his biggest mistake. France under Hollande with the U.S. is now actively engaged in the Middle East, having changed policy. It is highly unlikely that a Trump led policy which alienates most allies in the Middle East- Iran, Iraq and Saudis- is likely to work better than a determined Clinton-Panetta led effort which has support of the local countries on the ground actually currently on both sides because of complexities of Middle Eastern politics.  On trade a new administration will still have to work with China, India, the European Union, and other countries, as global trade supply chains are not likely to evolve overnight. Lessons will have been learned by Clinton about the need to bring back jobs and ensure the strength of U.S. manufacturing. Economic and jobs growth will require prudence in strengthening U.S. manufacturing coupled with global cooperation, which a Trump administration that alienates trading partners without the possibility of making any serious immediate gains in jobs, is highly unlikely to do better.      ...

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Caterpillar Inc. CEO and Chairman, Doug Oberhelman, discussed the acquisition of ERA Mining Machinery Ltd., a maker of roof supports for coal mines, acquired in June 2012 for $700 million. The acquisition was "botched" said Oberhelman, leading to the $580 million writedown for the 4th quarter of 2012 and the 55% drop in profits. Former managers of ERA misled Caterpillar about the condition of the business, and in Obherhelman's words "fabricated documentation to cover their tracks." Caterpillar later found inaccurate inventory data and improper revenue recognition. The move to acquire ERA Machinery was an effort to increase sales of mining equipment in China, the world's largest coal producer. As in the Autonomy acquisition by H-P the diligence in checking accounting and other data failed. Caterpillar lowered its forecast for 2013 based on slower growth in mining and decline in investment by mining companies. Mining companies are seeing management turnover over overextended mining projects that went sour. Revenue for 2013 is forecast at between $60 billion and $68 billion, compared to $65.88 billion in 2012. Analysts see risks in the forecast because mining equipment orders may not accelerate till 2015. Mining equipment forms a bigger part of Caterpillar sales and sales growth than construction machinery- sales of mining equipment increased by 14% to $5.78 billion in the 4th quarter 2012, even as sales of construction machinery declined 25% to $4.03 billion. In the U.S. construction machinery sales declined 17% to $1.45 billion in the 4th quarter 2012....

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The Saudi government announced sharp cuts in spending and subsidies to cut the deficit in 2016. The deficit in 2015 was about $98 billion or 367 billion riyals , according to Al Arabiya Saudi news channel. In 2016 the budget is designed to cut the deficit to $87 billion or 326 billion riyals. The 2016 budget is for 840 billion riyals, compared to 975 billion riyals in 2015. Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves of $640 billion could be exhausted at this rate by 2020, experts say. Actions being taken by the government include increasing the price of some grades of gasoline sold domestically by 50%, as subsidies are being cut. The drop in oil prices to about $35-$40 is hurting Russia, Saudis and Venezuela. The Saudis have increased defense spending for conflicts in Yemen, and in other areas, as they oppose Iran and Russia in the Iraq- Syria conflict.

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Castilla-La Mancha includes the region around Toledo, Spain. It has an unemployment rate of 27% for the 1st quarter of 2012, up 5.4% from 2011, faster than the increase of 3.1% to 24.4% for Spain. Estimates from the University Carlos III in Madrid show economic growth contracting with GDP decline at 3.1% annual rate by the end of June 2012 for Castilla La Mancha. Part of the problem was the lack of credible accounts by the previous administration. Unpaid bills to suppliers were not included in the accounts for the region. When Maria Dolores de Cospedal of the Partido Popular became the president in May 2011, these unpaid bills were discovered and led to the doubling of the region's budget deficit to 7.3% for 2011. Cospedal sees the austerity cuts she is making as a long term approach to preserve education and healthcare. In an interview with Sara Schaeffer Munoz of the WSJ she says reducing debt is the first priority, so that interest rate premiums on borrowing can be brought down. Debt for Castilla was 17.2% of GDP in 2011, according to the Bank of Spain, it was 16.6% in the first quarter of 2012, among the highest of Spain's regions Ms. Cospedal says she wants growth too, but insists that Spain cannot get growth as long as it is sinking in debt. Moody's Investors Service says Ms. Cospedal is strict in executing the budget- a new second hospital slated to be built for 150 million euros in Cuenca with population 56,000 was cancelled and other cuts are proceeding- and Moody's did not include Castilla in the downgrades of 7 Spanish regions in June 2012. ...

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In this essay in Der Spiegel, Charles Hawley says that the Trump movement has become a movement of patriotic downtrodden whites, with a whole range of interests-of extreme right talk show hosts, Tea Party politicians, white power supremacists, those left out by globalization in the working class especially in the midwestern states. The danger he says is that this movement of which Trump has become a part, rejects the narrative on which America is based of the Constitution and the Founding Fathers establishing a country based on principles of "the inalienable rights of man," that have evolved through the years to include black people, women, and minorities.  To put this in perspective, president Obama writing for The Economist magazine in October 2016, puts this movement in a different context- that of the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798, Know Nothing Movement of the 1800's, the anti-Asian sentiment in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, periods when anti-immigrant or anti-foreign sentiment gained prominence. Obama's view is that it is not fundamentally economic. In this he is right in that some of the forces on the far right do not stem from globalization. Yet he would be missing a great deal if he did not address the economic problems for the middle and working class that have given such views the support of a broad segment of the population, especially in some midwestern and older industrial states compared to say the economy of California or New York. Obama is aware of the problems in his essay as he points to the problems of workers trying to get a decent wage, of job losses through globalization, and the aggravation of these problems by the financial crisis of 2008 when some of the potential physicists and engineers as he calls them went into the financial sector to create faulty mortgages. Yet he goes back to the free trade and global networks of supply chains as having reduced global poverty, without showing a keen awareness of how it has through a combination of events and decades of policy indifference to manufacturing communities in the U.S.- as documented by experts and shown in Lyrarc, with David Autor and Gordon Hansen in the WSJ, 2016- 08-16. A Gallup Study, WSJ, 2016-05-16, supports Obama's assertion by showing that many of Trump supporters are actually self-employed and not in economic distress. Yet the movement would not have taken its proportions without the merging of different groups particularly largely disadvantaged working class voters, and fortunately Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, have a better sense of this than the president. It is by their efforts that income and wealth disparities can be tackled in a way that restores the social fusion of all parts of society- in Hillary Clinton's emphatic words in the final debate by "growing the middle," growing the middle class. This is the task of the next decade, or possibly two decades. (For Gallup study see WSJ, How Economic Anxieties Explain Trump's Appeal- And Where They Fall Short, Nick Timiraos, 08-16-2016. And for Autor, Hanson, see Tallying the Toll of U.S.-China Trade, Justin Lahart, 08-27-2011)   ...

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Home prices are surging in Australia in 2015, with home prices in Sydney up about 39% since June 2012, according to CoreLogic RP Data. As a multiple of annual income home prices in Sydney are at 9.8, Melbourne 8.7, and Wollongong near Sydney 7.5, compared to 6.1 for New York and 8.5 for London, according to a 2015 affordability survey by Demographia. Australia's surging home prices are happening just as the mining boom that powered its economy is winding down and unemployment is up to 6.1%. Interest rates are down to 2.25%, and low interest rates with speculative purchases are likely to fuel the market up further, say experts. About 40% of home loans approved in Feb. 2015 were to investors, increasing from 31% in 2009, according to official data. According to Australia's Reserve Bank the wealthiest 40% of the population have 75% of the debt. This surge when the economy is feeling the effects of the slowdown in China, and the rest of the world is cutting down on debt, puts Australia in uncertain territory....