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Mexico, Chile, Columbia and Peru will sign an agreement in Cali, Columbia, eliminating tariffs on 90% of merchandise trade between their countries and set a 7 year timetable for the remaining 10%. Visa requirements for citizens of these countries have been removed and plans are being developed for a common market. These countries have a private sector that plays a major role in their economies compared to Brazil and Argentina where the state plays an important role. The combined GDP is as large as Brazil's in the Latin American region- about 35%. The regional stock exchanges of these countries have created a single bourse. Their is potential for more regional trade- the Economist estimates intra-regional trade in South and Central America at a low of 27%, compared with 63% in the European Union and 52% in Asia.

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Jurgen Kroger, is the chief negotiator for the European Commission, and Poul Thomsen, heads the IMF negotiating team, for the 78 billion euros in loans extended to Portugal under a bailout agreement. Kroger offered his views on the agreement in Lisbon. Kroger said he was convinced that the program gives Portugal the means to boost growth and jobs, as it builds a sustainable and competitive economy. Two thirds of the loans come from the EU at an interest rate that is yet to be set. The yield on Portugal's 10 year bonds keeps rising and is now at 10.20%. The IMF will provide one third of the funds. The IMF's Thomsen said the issue of interest rates was addressed by arranging for two thirds of the loan package money coming in the first of the three years of the program. What this does is to take Portugal out of the markets for medium and long term debt for a "little over two years" he said and gives Portugal the "breathing space" it needs to restore credibility before going to the financial markets. The fear expressed by analysts is that the tough austerity measures in the programs of the EU and IMF can cause the economies of these countries to worsen, making it even harder to repay the much larger debts when the loan package money is added to the original debt. The IMF and the EU negotiators had to create a credible program for recovery in the light of these facts. Already Portugal's finance minister is predicting a contraction in the Portuguese economy of 2% in 2011, and 2% in 2012. The negotiators appear to have taken this into account in setting interest rates. Portugal will pay the IMF an interest rate of 3.25% for the first 3 years, with the rate going to 4.25 in the fourth year. By comparison Greece's loans are for seven years with an average interest rate of 4.2%. Ireland's seven year loans carry an interest rate of 5.8%, which it is working to renegotiate. To give Portugal more breathing space the terms of the loans set a slower reduction in the budget deficit than originally planned. Portugal gets to cut its budget deficit to 5.9% of GDP in 2011, and 4.5% of GDP in 2012. The 3% target is set for 2013, one year later. Economists such as Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics, say the loan package will only increase Portugal's debt and lead to a larger default later on when the debt amount owed is larger. The debt restructuring solution is being actively debated in the EU, including the risks that European banks would take large hits. Negotiators are also mindful of keeping any negative impact on Spain as low as possible. As Portugal's financing costs have risen, Spain's have risen also. Spain offered higher rates to sell 3.4 billion euros of five year bonds on May 5, with the average yield on Spain's bond sale rising to 4.55%, up from 4.39% on March 3. ...

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The RNC speech of the former president is described by the WSJ Editorial Board as long and rambling for 90 minutes after a good start becoming a typical speech that did not broaden the appeal, and with its random comments lacking clarity. The former president's claims on crime up when it is actually down by 15% according to FBI. On inflation and cost of living the inflation peaked at 9% is now down to 3% in 2023 with cost of living actions by Biden and Powell. The former president's solution to "Drill, baby drill," would only affect gas prices a bit, and do nothing for the principal causes of inflation in housing, in rental of apartments, in prices of automobiles and auto repairs, and in cost of drugs, student loans. Only a concerted action on all fronts as Biden and Powell have done would work, along with large investments in American manufacturing and jobs, which can only be done if no tax cuts are made for the wealthy not in the Republican platform. This means the hundreds of thousands of job creation each month happening now will stall and inflation from supply chains in China will be harder to control especially with a 60% Trump proposed tariff on Chinese imports. ...

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The initial information of 4 million records affected by the hacking into records at the Office of Personnel Management of the U.S. government is now shown as a serious underestimate. The agency now says 19.7 million who were given a background check, and an additional 1.8 million people are affected. The agency now says there were separate incidents of hacking with this incident separate from the other incident for 4.2 million records hacked, both perpetrated by the same hackers. The two hackings are reported to be from China. A security official at the department of Homleland Security, says the access to the personnel records was made through the use of the credentials of a contractor which were available to the hackers.

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Krugman points out the risks for the U.S. economy as the U.S. loses export competitiveness with the euro reaching parity with the dollar. The huge shift from $1.50 to the dollar at one point to parity gives Europe a sudden strong boost. Europe needs the boost to escape a deflationary trap, and there is little that can be done for capital flows and exchange rates, says Krugman. He points out that many Federal Reserve governors were clueless of the impact this could have on U.S. growth, sanguinely assuming the U.S. would boost growth in 2015. Better says Krugman for the Fed to be very careful about raising rates at a time when wage growth is sluggish, and inflation low.

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African continent debt reached $1.1 trillion in 2024. About 900 million people live in African countries where interest payments on debt exceed money spent on healthcare and education. In Nigeria external debt is $40 billion, in Kenya $35 billion and Uganda $12 billion.  Take Nigeria with 220 million people. 40% of the revenue collected goes to meet interest payments on debt. For many African countries there is zero per capita income growth for a decade. During the 2010 crisis as interest rates reached new lows US and European Reagan era intellectuals including Democrats encouraged African countries to borrow at low rates and banks loosened restrictions putting more African countries into debt buildup borrowings. As interest rates went up the cost of paying the debt accumulated required more loans at higher interest rates. Nigeria paid a premium over that of 10% for a loan of $2 billion just for interest payments. The debt crisis means African currencies depreciate reducing purchasing power.  With war in Ukraine and Covid prices of food and energy rose. Only the strong and disciplined leadership and rapid industrialization provided breathing room as with Modi in India, Jinping in China, the African continent and Latin America lacked this and are feeling the pain. ...

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Using knowledge of molecular crystal formation with a degree in industrial chemistry, and a chocolate making apprenticeship in Antwerp, this is what brings Thierry Muret to the exciting work of making new truffles. He originally wanted to become a scientist inventing new things. Today he uses his science degree every single day, as its all about crystals, says Muret, who is the main chef at a large chocolate maker, Godiva. His view is that chefs are all the time decomposing food and recomposing it as they see fit using creative ways and ideas. He says chocolate is a very difficult material, and it takes sometimes as long as 12 months to get one product right. One deals with temperatures and time and half a degree Fahrenheit is what the fluctuation allowed is. Here he describes a typical day at a chocolate maker and days when he gets creative, passionate about a creation, putting everything aside. Other days at a satellite kitchen in New York, or in Brussels talking about new chocolates for Christmas 2020. ...

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Tories White Paper on "leveling up" by Michael Gove is out and gets a scathing review from Karl Holbrook of the Northern Echo. 

Holbrook says you can't spend 15 million pounds in one of the wealthiest areas of the country, Javid's constituency Bromsgrove in Worcestershire, and nothing in Knowsley, one of the poorest in the North of England , and call it "leveling up." He says he has little hope that the Tories will get much done without the funding to back it up. And he says one cannot plaster this up with 12 new slogans masquerading as missions in a White Paper as Michael Gove has done and expect people in England to buy it. Labor under Tony Blair and his "Middle Way" - let the huge inequalities between the north of England and the south develop under its watch- more muddled than middle in any way one looks at it today. He says this northerner has had enough of waiting.  

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Kamala Harris laid out her economic plan for Cost of Living Action at a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina. This includes action to restrict price gouging, excessive prices of supermarkets for groceries. It includes restricting rent increases to 5%, a first time home buyer help with down payment of $25,000, and a child tax credit of $6000 per child.

Kamala Harris said:

"Your salary should be enough to provide you and your family with a good quality of life … such as, no child should have to grow up in poverty. Such as, after years of hard work, you should be able to retire with dignity, and you should be able to join a union if you choose.”

“Our supply chains have now improved, and prices are still too high,” Harris said. “Many of the big food companies are seeing their highest profits in two decades. And while many grocery chains pass along these savings, others still aren’t."

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This report in the NYT by Halbfinger and Kershner shows a Israel that is divided in its views about prime minister Netanyahu. In early 2018 with the police report on the investigation into Mr. Netanyahu on campaign finances, half of Israelis support Netanyahu, with the other half thinking that Netanyahu should resign. Mr. Netanyahu has dismissed the investigation as full of holes like Swiss cheese. His supporters see it as part of a left wing conspiracy including state prosecutors and police. Supporters of Netanyahu see him as having improved Israel's security in its region, people who oppose him see him as being too divisive, using divisive rhetoric to improve his own position.  Younger voters in particular have a distaste for divisive politics practiced under Netanyahu, which extends to the supporters of Israel in America, and the policies leading to delaying of the peace project.  That peace project is also seen as part of the nation's mission to seek peace with its immediate neighbors, an unfinished project for Israel as a nation. After many years in office Netanyahu's party lacks the dynamic vision needed and it now appears only to see remaining in office as its goal, according to this NYT report. This is happening at a time when a larger centrist constituency is developing in Israel as most of the moderates are outside government. ...

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Analysts fear an oil shock in 2012 similiar to that in 2008. There is similiarity in the situation now and in 2008- as in 2008, the surge in oil prices comes at a time of higher tensions with Iran and shrinking spare capacity. Spare capacity is at 2.5 million barrels a day on average for January and February 2012, according to the Energy Information Administration. This compares with 3.7 millon barrels a day for the same period in 2011. Part of the reason is that global oil demand is increasing in 2012 by 1 million barrels a day, to 89 million barrels a day. Technical and political problems have shutdown another 750,000 barrels a day. The problems begin to kick in during the second half of 2012. The U.S. ban on dealing with the Iranian central bank for oil trades starts in June 2012. According to the International Energy Agency, the EU embargo and U.S. sanctions will take 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude out of the market. The result will be that demand exceeds supply by the third quarter by 1.1 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Use of existing reserves in Europe, the U.S. and other countries will make up the gap. The effect will be to put pressure on oil prices. May Brent crude on the ICE Futures Europe exchange was up to $125.81 a barrel, on March 16, 2012, and prices for April delivery were at $107.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange....

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The work of innovation teams that help reduce lost production time and make production more efficient on Boeing's 737 production lines in Renton, Washington. There are 1300 improvement teams at Boeing for commerical jet production. Examples range from conventional improvements such as remapping production arrangements to unconventional ones like the use of hay loaders to put seats on passenger planes. The work requires highly motivated production engineers and Boeing has a long tradition of this. Boeing has increased 737 jet production to 35 a month from 31.5 with the help of such improvements. The goal is to make 42 planes a month by 2014, and 60 by 2017 when the 737 MAX goes into production. Boeing has a large backlog of orders- 3,700 jets of which 2,300 are 737s.

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Michael Fathers reviews two detailed accounts of Mao's Great Leap Forward. From 1958-62 Mao launched an effort to industrialize China in its effort to surpass Krushchev's effort to surpass the U.S. and western nations in one decade. Yang Jingsheng's account in the book 'Tombstone,' is a result of decades of research to find what happened during this period. He lost his own father to starvation during this period when all Chinese agriculture was forced into communes with communal living and communal kitchens. The result were disastrous as agricultural production suffered badly leading to famines and loss of an estimated 45 million lives. The policy was continued even as the result showed a looming disaster by 1959. It was only by 1962 that Mao was forced to accept the failure of the program. As an editor of Xinhua news agency, Jingsheng had access to accounts of waht happened in provincial documents and archives. The other book reviewed is 'The Great Famine' by Frank Dikotter which provides an illuminating account of what happened in these years. Dikotter says the final responsibility rested with Mao for calling for higher grain deliveries from the countryside at the height of the famine and for continuing the policy of force and coercion leading to starvation- he quotes Mao who said: "It is better to let half the people die so that the other half can eat their fill." The truth about this period was hidden by propaganda and the mistake accounts of westerners who visited China including Francois Mitterand till the 1990's. Jasper Becker, a former correspondent in China for the Guardian, gave one of the first accounts of what had happened in "Hungry Ghosts: China's Secret Famine" (1996). What shocked readers was the extent of the dead, the violence, and the fear of speaking out even after 30 years. The fear of speaking out is evidenced in the pen name Mo Yan of the Nobel prize winner in Literature for 2012 which means do not speak out in Chinese because his parents were from a more affluent farming family in the village. Mo Yan uses animal and fairy tale characters and Chinese history in his novels and stories including his effort to describe the behaviour of arrogant local officials. The chronology of this period also tells a story. China's Communists took control in 1949, the famine and violent repression to establish the commune system occured in 1958-1962 only 8 years later, and the Great Proleterian Cultural Revolution was launched by Mao in 1966 and was to last a decade till his death in 1979- a period which saw a new effort of upending of China's countryside to establish communism....

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Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the IMF, rejects the argument that only the traders at AIG in the Financial Products Group who got the company in the mess are the ones who can unwind the complex transactions. He says the same arguments were used in S. Korea, and Thailand and were rejected by their governments as the banks in these countries collapsed and were takenover by the government. At the most keep afew traders and let the rest go is what Johnson suggests.

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The governor of the Punjab province during the Jallianwala massacre in Amritsar was an Irishman. Ireland was a troubled spot in Britain during the French revolutionary wars and France even attempted landings to liberate Ireland. Forward to 1900 and the Irish Easter rebellion leading to the Irish Free State in 1906. Read this article in the BBC for a nuanced understanding of history. As the writer an Irishman says Irish people following the European project called the European Union are now able to sit on equal terms with the British. Old conflicts are not uppermost even in the IRA that won the recent Irish election with its focus on economic issues.  This is good reading for anyone in Pakistan or India also as old conflicts can only be sustained for so long before economic, social and development issues such as education, healthcare and services take prominence in people's minds. It is also good reading in India as it looks at the British period in India, to realize that India now sits astride the Indian Ocean. What Britain accomplished in the eighteenth and nineteenth century with its  Royal Navy is now the task of the Indian Navy in alliance with the American Navy, and the Australian Navy on the world's seas. Indians like Irishmen can sit with the Americans or British on equal terms. ...

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Shiller points out that statistical models used by economists can't quantify the risk of a double-dip recession. Confidence indexes show gradual trends so they too are poor at picking up the dangers inherent in the increasing levels of uncertainty and the increasing vulnerability of confidence in the economy. The potential of sudden events in derailing confidence is great. He cites the 10 percent drop in the U.S. stock market on May 6, as one example. And the potential of the BP oil spill creating havoc for the Gulf economy is another such event. Shiller says his definition of a douple dip recession looks at the long term, and doesn't see the short term as a way to correctly read the economic situation. He sees a douple dip recession as a rise in unemployment to high levels, and becomes sticky after that, only nudged down insignificantly. Before unemployment can be brought down a second recession occurs, and there could be years in between. Shiller's Buy-on-Dips stock Market Confidence Index prepared since 1989 shows a steady decline in individual investor confidence since 2009....

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Standard and Poor's changed its rating of U.S. Treasury securities from stable to negative. U.S. Treasury securites are still rated AAA. Moody's made no change in the rating. U.S gross debt as a percentage of GDP is 91.6%, with the comparable number for Germany at 80%, France 82%, Canada 84%, the UK at 77%, Japan 221%. The U.S. budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is 10.6%, the comparable number for Germany is 3.3%, France 7%, Canada 5.5%, the UK 10.4%. John Chambers, the head of the sovereign ratings committee at Standard & Poor's stated that "the sign of political gridlock was a key determinant in our outlook change." The budget deficit will go up to $1.5-$1.65 trillion, or over 10% of America's GDP in 2011. The gross debt for the U.S. is at $14.219 trillion, just short of the $14.294 trillion cap. With rising entitlement costs and the interest on debt this is expected to go over the debt ceiling as early as July 8, 2011. Again political gridlock and the divide between Republicans and Democrats about deficit reduction is causing concern about the delay in raising the debt ceiling....

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In upcoming national elections the anti-immigration narrative pushed by prime minister Viktor Orban is no longer sounding convincing to voters. One retiree in a local election is cited here as saying there is no one at the border, that he is tired of hearing that narrative. The number of people at the border from Africa and Asia has dwindled to single digits from 200,000 at one time. All parties in the country are opposed to it.  Hungary's economic growth of 3% in recent years since 2013 is helped greatly by aid from the European Union.  Large public works programs have brought unemployment down to 3.8%.  As a result Orban is likely to win about half the seats in parliament down from about two thirds majority. The other half of the seats will be divided among parties from the Greens, Socialists, Centrists and the right wing. As in Hungary the anti-immigration narrative should gradually fade in the rest of Europe including Britain. The vote for Brexit was close and the anti-immigration narrative helped boost the yeas vote margin. As a result of the change in public perception there will be questions about how much a decision that affects Britain for future generations should be made on the basis of an event that happened in 2015-2016. ...

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Winfried Vahland, the VW executive chosen to head the U.S. and Mexico operations by new VW CEO Muller, turns down the position. Vahland is one of the most experienced executives at VW, heading the China operations, and since 2010 in charge of the Skoda operations based in the Czech Republic. This is a setback for VW as it looks for ways to improve the management at all of its operations and make organizational changes.

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Michelle Obama delivers a rousing speech in Pheonix, Arizona, as she campaigns across the country for Hillary Clinton, saying "they are trying to take away your hope." And by reminding voters Obama lost the state in 2012 by only 208,000 votes or 63 votes per precinct, so voters should not stay home. She tried to revive the 2008 campaign theme of "hope" of the Obama campaign in that year.

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Boone and Johnson point to the problems facing Portugal as being worse than that faced by Argentina when it defaulted on its debt in 2001. Portugal they say spent too much in recent years with the help of Euro-money letting debt rise to 78% of GDP compared to Greece's 114% of GDP and Argentina's 62% of GDP at default. The lack of the option for a necessary devaluation under the euro currency makes the situation worse. At this point the situation is simply being postponed as the European Central Bank will continue to let the governments issue bonds, which European commercial banks buy and deposit at the ECB as collateral for fresh printed money.

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Argentine soccer star Diego Maradona who died at 60 after health problems. Many controversies surround Maradona, unlike Messi and Reynaldo, two of the prominent players at this time from Argentina and Portugal. Unlike the period when Pele and Maradona dominated, today there are many good players and many good coaches such as the coaches of Liverpool and Manchester City teams from Germany and Spain, each having made soccer the single largest worldwide sport in history. New younger players are also taking the place of older players as seen in the Spanish and German teams in the Nations League soccer games. Coaches and team owners shun the publicity that drives the cost of players up and prefer to give younger unknown players a chance, which is itself a good thing for the game.

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Irish prime minister Varadkar resigns after what critics call a "gimmicky" referendum to change language respecting women's role at home to coincide on International Women's Day. It was rejected by about 70% of the vote with about 44% of people voting and little understanding of what this was about as the wording was poorly done and it was not well thought out. If it was about respecting women and promoting participation outside the home the government could take steps as Japan and India at different economic stages are doing. Would changing the Indian or Japanese constitutional wording make a difference or the government making the efforts to broaden opportunities and remove obstacles and impediments to women's participation.

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Bump in the Washington Post cites the weekly poll from Gallup showing Trump's job approval rating with Republicans is at 84% among Republicans. Another poll from Survey Monkey shows 75% of Republicans are fine with the firing of FBI Director Comey by Trump. Republicans at this time see the firing as a distraction from other issues on the Republican agenda. Fox News presents a very different version of the story and it is what most Republicans watch. The health care bill from Republicans in Congress and the tax plan are also favored by a majority of Republicans in the polls, says Bump. Independents are wary and skeptical, Republicans see Trump as a way to get their own agenda implemented, and Democrats have serious issues with Trump.

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The Centres for Disease Control agency in the U.S. was unprepared for this pandemic in the early period from January to March. This report in the NYT shows how the agency failed to respond effectively in the early days leading to the loss of lives now past 100,000. When travelers arrived at U.S. airports in February from China carrying the virus with them these flights were diverted to selected airports with CDC conducted screening but the screening proved to be defective. Health officils desperate to set up isolation and quarantine could not act because the information provided was not accurate and missed many details resulting in the inability to quarantine early and isolate clusters as other countries Germany and South Korea have done.