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With a loss of $8.7 billion in the second quarter of 2008 Ford now moves to transform its production operations to make small carslike the Focus, and the Fiesta and to smaller cars in general converting existing truck and SUV plants to make cars. It will not be till early 2010 that therse new cars some of them from Europe where Ford has success with making a decent profit on smaller cars and has a number of models that are popular there.

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12 million Chinese university students will see a 20 yuan increase in monthly stipends as help with rising food prices.

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Consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board index fell sharply from 58% to 50% from May to June 2008.

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Russia's exports to the USA only 3% of total exports, 21% to China, 19% to India, and 16% to Brazil. But does this suggest the Russian economy is insulated It exports natural gas to Germany, its largest trading partner. Are oil exports from Russia to the US so insignificant that they constute only 3% of total exports? This needs to be verified. Russia built the $478 billion reserves based on oil exports. If prices drop this will affect future increases in these reserves and affect foreign investment in the Russian economy, investment it badly needs to modernize. Russia is less affected relative o other countries, but its stock markets dropped 20% after the global markets reacted in cascading effect in January 2008. There is some insulation but not really that much and the case is overstated. Russia is starting out with a smaller manufacturing economy. It badly needs to build this up and the effects of a global slowdown will mean reduced investment than would otherwise occur.

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The 2009 budget of the Obama government has some optimistic assumptions built into it for the deficits in future years. For 2009 the GDP declines by 1.2%, for 2010 the GDP growth is 3.2%. With these assumptions its possible to bring the $1.75 trillion deficit in 2009 to less than $600 billion by 2012, and getting to that point requires GDP to rise by 4% a year by then. This is assuming the growth quickly returns to the growth rates of the 1990's. In one area the administrations' forecasts are more optimistic than the Fed's and may turn out to be too optimistic. The administration's assumption is for unemployment to average 7.9% in 2010 when it may be close to 9% or higher. For example Goldman Sachs economists expect the unemployment rate to be at 9.5% by late 2010. And Goldm,an's growth rate for 2010 is just 1.3%, and that also may prove to be optimistic whereas the budget assumes 3.2%. What all this means that money has to be spent on the priorities outlined by the President, but the most buck for the money has to be obtained because further outlays will be needed in future years. This is a very important point, and a lot of checks and transparency and careful monitoring of projects has to be put in place throughout 2009....

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Tata will start making the Nano small car in the 4th quarter of 2008 at a plant it is constructing in the eastern state of West Bengal. Tata faces the same difficulties other car makers are facing around the world as fuel prices adversely affect car sales, and the unprecedented and enormous increases in the prices of raw material costs like steel, tires, and so on with the impact of tighter money supply with higher interest rates creates a different environment for Indian automakers. Tata's margins will be under pressure from these changes in the operating environment. Tata will look for ways to reduce costs and introduce several new models in 2008 in the commercial and passenger car markets. Tata completed acquisition of Land Rover and Jaguar for $2.3 billion in June. To fund the acquisition Tat Motors is raising 72 billion rupees ($1.7 billion) through three separate rights issues, and an additional $500 million to $600 million through an international offering of securities. This acquisition says Ratan Tata CEO of Tata Motors , will add global scale, profits and visibility to Tata Motors, enabling Tata Motors to take its place in the global auto industry as a credible international automobile company....

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UK's energy company, BG Group PLC is offering 12.9 billion Australian dollars for Origin Energy. Origin Energy Australia's biggest gas producer is also the owner of large coalbed methane assets, known as coal-seam. Trillions of cubic metres of natural gas are trapped in Australia's coal seams. Extracting this methane has been considered too costly until now as natural gas prices have risen significantly. There are environmental benefits as coal seam gas does not produce any sulfur dioxide or particulates, and emits only 50% of the carbon dioxide emitted when coal is burned.BG already has plans to spend A$8 billion on one LNG plant with capacity for 4 million metric tons a year of LNG. LNG is natural gas, mostly methane cooled to liquid form for transport by ship. This would use the coal-seam assets purchased from Queensland Gas Company for A$664 million as part of plans to start the LNG plant near the port town of Gladstone, in the state of Queensland. The Origin coal seam assets could provide gas for a second plant at the Queensland site. BG has an LNG supply deal to provide 3 million tons a year to Singapore from 2012. BG has prior focus in the Atlantic region with operations in Brazil, the UK, North Sea, and Trinidad and Tobago, the Queensland deal and acquisition of Origin gives BG an entry in Asian LNG markets. This will be the second biggest takeover of an Australian company after Mexican cement maker Cemex's acquisition of Rinker Group for A$16.7 billion....

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Peter Altmaier is director of the chancellery in Berlin, and is the person closest to Angela Merkel. This report in the Economist points out that Altmaier has played a critical role in steps taken by Merkel- as chief whip in parliament for the CDU during the Greece financial crisis and bailouts, as environment minister implementing the program away from coal based electricity, and in negotiating deals such as the deal with Turkey on refugees, and now with Brexit negotiations. Merkel has asked Altmaier to write her manifesto for the September 2017 election. A member of the CDU's liberal wing, Altmaier is known for being a scholar on German history, especially Bismarck, and a workaholic. Here he is mentioned as a bridge maker for the CDU to the Greens Party and was part of a group of CDU and Green Party politicians who met at an Italian restaurant in Bonn. As the moderates are now dominant in the Greens Party, a CDU coalition with the Greens could be shaped by Altmaier if the election results move in that direction. ...

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A major change is taking place. Automakers around the world are shifting to smaller engines. Hyundai's Sonata for 2011 and the Tucson crossover for 2010 are going to have only 4 cylinder engines. Many V-6's offered by Detroit carmakers are being replaced with 4 cylinder engines and V-8 with V-6 engines. Ford is using the EcoBoost a turbocharged V-6 to offer new options for its Taurus, Lincoln MKT and other cars.

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Changes at USAID headed by Rajiv Shah as it makes more room for private initiative of local groups and funding of local groups in countries being helped, and shifting away from handing whole projects to U.S. government contractors. Another change is the harnessing of the efforts of U.S. corporations interested in emerging market countries for introducing their products as part of an aid effort. An example is GE for medical equipment at Nelson Mandela Children's Hospital opening in South Africa in 2016. In countries where corruption is widespread such as Afghanistan, giving money to government ministry creates risks of waste and corruption, a problem which is however part of larger problem of wasted resources in that country. The basic concept of using private initiative and getting the involvement of local groups, U.S. corporations interested in emerging markets at the aid level for their products, taken up by Shah is sound and was overdue. It is already the practice as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is doing much of the heavy lifting and large scale aid effort in poor countries of Africa and Asia. Shah worked at that the Gates Foundation before USAID. An example is the Grand Challenges for Development program to get innovators to help tackle problems in poor countries- the Pratt Pouch a small pouch with anti-AIDS drugs not requiring refrigeration was developed at Duke University and could potentially prevent transmission of HIV to 400,000 babies a year. Shah's own background of immigrant parents coming from India gives him a unique insight into how to combine the involvement of the creative abilities of well intentioned Americans at universities and private companies and local groups in poor countries, to leverage the results. He has a medical degree from the University of Pennsylvania....

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California's governor Jerry Brown has put forward his budget plan for fiscal 2013 showing a budget surplus of $851 million. Brown was able to get Proposition 30 passed in the November 2008 elections. Higher income earners pay more in taxes for several years and the sales tax is increased. An improved economy with unemployment down from 11.3% in 2011 to 9.8% in Nov. 2012 is helping with higher tax revenues. General fund revenues are expected to increase 3.3% to $98.5 billion in the 2013 fiscal year from $95.4 billion the prior year. Brown has accomplished a remarkable feat of balancing the budget for 2013 and still continuing to invest in education and healthcare. Spending will increase 5% to $97.7 billion in fiscal 2013 from $93 billion in fiscal 2012 with higher spending on education and health care and lower spending in other areas. Brown's path to achieving this was eased after Democrats won control of both houses in the the state legislature. Says Brown: "Right now, for the next 4 years, we'll be talking about a balanced budget, we're talking about living within our means... This is new." Even Republicans praise this effort from a veteran of California politics- his father was governor in the Kennedy years, and he was governor in the 1980's....

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A study done by the Hudson Institute shows an increase in sales of 5.5% on average in same store sales of restaurants which increased lower calorie items on the menu. The reverse is taking place for restaurants that have neglected to do this, with these restaurants experiencing a decline in sales. This was based on research firm NPD and restaurant data at 21 fast-food and sit-down restaurant chains between 2006 and 2011. Chains that include lower calorie counts on menus include Panera, McDonalds, Denny's and Au Bon Pain chain. Federal regulations will require restaurants with 20 or more outlets to post the calorie counts in early 2014. The process of moving Americans away from eating habits that lead to obesity is moving at a slow pace. Margo Wootan, director of nutrition policy at the Center of Science in the Public Interest, says large serving sizes at restaurants lead to overeating and obesity. Frequency of eating at restaurants is another problem, with studies showing women who eat out more than 5 times a week take in about 290 calories each day compared to women who do not eat out that often. The healthy options at restaurants are still restricted to a small portion of menus and healthy choices are limited....

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Difficulties in New York Times reporting on prime minister Manmohan Singh, BJP opposition leader Narendra Modi, and on Indian politics and government. The misleading nature of an analogy to black people in the U.S. for Muslims in India, Muslims in British India. Or Muslims in South Asia going back to the 12th century with the long history and culture of Muslims in the region linking up with Muslim civilization in Iran, highly developed with their own languages and dominant in the region during different historical periods. Yet also in decline during some periods such as the British period because of rapid advances in science and technology.

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Matteo Renzi, recently elected chief of Italy's ruling Democratic party, is likely to be the next prime minister as current prime minister Letta resigns. Letta's administration had come under increasing criticism from business and public opinion about the slow pace of economic changes in Italy. Italy's 2 trillion debt, or about $2.7 trillion, at 130% of GDP, and the declining GDP with little or no economic growth, is a problem for the eurozone. At the current pace of economic change the IMF forecast estimates only 0.5% annual growth in GDP till 2018. Foreign direct investment 2005-2011 is about one third of the eurozone average, according to the IMF, and Italy has failed to attract foreign investment for the last two decades with its weak political system and lack of competitiveness. By comparison Spain has seen an increase in exports and increasing foreign investment as it positions itself for a recovery. The austerity measures adopted by the Monti and Letta adminstrations in 2011-2013 helped to improve confidence in capital markets and lower borrowing rates, however this is clearly not the answer to Italy's problems of slow or no growth in the economy for the last decade. This is the problem Matteo Renzi, the 39 year old Mayor of Florence, is pushing to tackle as the mood in the country calls for aggressive action. Renzi's economic advisor is Filippo Taddei, who has a doctorate from Columbia University. He says at the core the issues are about what kind of "productive identity" Italy should have. Taxation that promotes higher rates of business investment is needed to promote growth, and creating a business climate that encourages investment in human capital and new technology. Payroll and business taxes take up about two thirds of a company's earnings leaving less for investment. Renzi is planning to take the centre left Democratic party in a new direction, "the road less travelled," as he put it in a televised speech, with innovative solutions including pro-market approach. As a first step he negotiated a deal with former premier Berlusconi for electoral reforms that would give a party or coalition winning electoral support a strong mandate to make and execute policy, without being hobbled in the way previous administrations were in the post war period. Lucrezia Reichlin, former head of research at the ECB, and Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a former member of the ECB executive council, are candidates to be the economics minister in the Renzi administration....

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Layoffs in 2008 for Wall Street could be as high or higher than 20%. Things look bad and are getting worse.

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In comments made to the editors of the New York Times, Mario Monti, the prime minister of Italy, says the European Union will endure because it was in the vital interests of Germany. Competitive devaluatations if a number of countries exited the eurozone would have an enormous harmful effect on Germany. Germany is an export dependent economy and sends two thirds of its exports to EU countries. In the unlikely event Greece leaves the eurozone, Monti says effective political policy responses can be expected to prevent this from affecting the rest of the eurozone. Monti is on a visit to the U.S. for talks with President Obama. He praised the effort by Greece's prime minister Papademos to meet the demands of international lenders in difficult conditions.

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Thomas Sargent of New York University, the 2012 Nobel prize winner in economics, says the EU leaders can learn from the way the federal government in the U.S. handled the issue of state's debt when it came up in the 1790's and in 1840. In 1790 the federal government- under the leadership of Washington and Hamilton- saw the need to honor state's debt because of the contribution made by states in the war of independence and the U.S. assumed state's debt. In 1840 the U.S. refused to assume state's debt and states went into default. The result was beneficial because state's passed balanced budget rules and restrained reckless spending. Another benefit was that this preserved state rights to manage their finances and the federal structure setup under the constitution.