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The WSJ's Paul Sonne gives this exceptional account of how Russians are coping in the economic crisis of 2015-2016, with the twin shocks of the collapse in the ruble and the collapse in oil prices. He does this by looking at the Kaluga region, a provincial city 110 miles south of Moscow that has benefitted from large foreign investment to meet the needs of 20 million consumers in the Moscow region. The governor of Kaluga since 2000, Anatoly Artamonov, worked hard to attract foreign investment that includes VW, Volvo AG, Continental AG, Lafarge, Samsung Electronics, General Electric, and other companies. He ran a collective in the Brezhnev era, and now is energetic in meeting needs of foreign investors. Karmanov says it is stupidity to not say he is talking to business people in other parts of the world because of the political climate in the country. About 42% of the industrial output in Kaluga comes from the foreign automobile plants, including VW. The automobile and light commercial vehicle production in Feb. 2015 dropped by about 39% compared to Feb. 2014, according to the Association of European Business estimate. Only 40% of autombile production cost from assembly lines is sourced locally, the rest is imported at the new value of the ruble which has fallen about 50%, leading to higher prices and slumping demand. Ordinary Russians are feeling the effects of the crisis with higher prices. Consumer price inflation in Feb. 2015 was at 16.7%, with 23.3% increase in food prices. High interest rates to prop up the ruble meant cutting off access to credit to finance consumer purchases. An 8% drop in real wages in Jan. 2015, according to Capital Economics, added to pressures on consumers. With the political and economic crisis following Russia's Ukraine intervention foreign investment in 2014 declined to $18.6 billion in 2014 compared to $61.5 billion in 2013, and the EBRD bank cut financing with the sanctions....

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Connors and Magalhaes provide an exceptional account of the work of nine young prosecutors in Brazil, including Deltan Dallagnol, a Harvard trained law graduate, Carlos Santos Lima, a Cornell law graduate, and Paulo de Carvalho, in looking into the corruption and money laundering at Petrobras. Contracts for work given out by Petrobras to construction firms were inflated in value, and 3% of the inflated value was given to executives at Petrobras, or to the fund of the ruling Workers Party of Brazil. Dallagnol is a prosecutor in Curitiba, a small provincial city. He detected unusual movement of money, where a local car wash showed a new Land Rover being gifted to a Petrobras executive, in an apparent money laundering effort. Appointments at high levels are made by the government, and the current president who has not been implicated, was at one time chairman of Petrobras. In Brazil, as in India, Nigeria, and other developing countries, politicians were known to have misused public funds, but were able to act with impunity because the legal system made it difficult to impose strict penalties. The effort by the young prosecutors in Brazil is an effort to bring changes to the legal system so that this type of near impunity no longer exists. It is the first step to bringing serious changes and increasing public awareness for change. The result in Nigeria is a huge loss in Africa, with the electricity system for the entire country the size of what it would take to light up one medium sized American city. In India with the lack of roads and electricity in rural areas of many states, the misuse of public funds is a similiar burden on the people. Brazil is coming out of a borrowing binge in the last ten years which is leading to a credit crunch in the country and near junk bond status for Petrobras, Brazil's largest company, which experts predict will lead to a contraction in the economy in 2015-2016. ...

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Qatar's sovereign wealth fund supports PSG Paris and Qatar Airways supports Bayern Munich. Barcelona is one of the richest clubs along with PSG but says this report it has wasted a lot of money about $950 million getting players that it later deemed not needed, 30 players for that amount since 2014.This includes Coutinho who scored 2 of the 8 goals of Bayern in the 8-2 Bayern win over Barcelona. Bayern also played with Thiago Alcantara a player released by Barcelona. All the time Barcelona was looking at players to support Messi and making bad decisions. It released Neymar to PSG for $260 million even though it had second thoughts about the merits of that decision, just because of the money. For what you get for the money Bayern got key players for under $120 million to beat Lyon. Manchester city spent $600 million by contrast to put together its team. For Bayern its home grown talent comes from Thomas Muller and Alaba. Lewandowski and Goretzka were signed up. The best talent comes from youngsters Serge Gnabry of France and Alphonso Davies of Canada, for a combined $21 million. PSG also has broken the bank in signings but it has cooled down since and is calmer now. It signed Mbappe for $160 million, a critical piece of the plan for PSG. PSG coach Tuchel brought back Chuopo Moting for free and he was the hero for the win over Atalanta in the closing minutes. Simply an act of faith in his players by Tuchel from old times when Tuchel coached the youth leagues, which he loved doing.  Bayern chairman Rummenigge says "we'll try to save money." Making the best use of money starting with homegrown talent and young promising players is a winning game. At key points in the game with Barcelona, Davies and Coutinho showed the value of this approach. ...

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The U.S. economy added an average of 284,000 jobs each month for October, November and December 2015. In December 292,000 new jobs were added. The monthly rate for the first 9 months was an average of 200,000 jobs. This shows the pace accelerated by Dec. 2015. In all 2.65 million jobs were added in 2015. The unemployment rate is now at 5%. Yet the wage gains are modest, at 2.5% for 2015. The average hourly wage is at $25.24. The labor force participation rate has declined for many years and stands at 62.6%, as many people are too discouraged to look for work- this is the share of Americans having jobs or looking for work. Experts say this is like a huge shadow work force existing on the side that could explain the lack of wage gains, as the official figure of unemployment is not reflecting the discouraged workers who have dropped out of the labor market.

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Sally McGrane of the NYT brings us this delightful story about trees, looking at them in a new way. She tells the story of Peter Wholleben, a best selling author, No. 1 on the Spiegel list, a career forest ranger in the Eifel forest area near Cologne, Germany. Wholleben's book The Hidden Life of Trees: What They Feel, How they Communicate - Discoveries From a Secret World." is popular in Germany, describes trees in social terms, as having emotions, and caring for each other in wooded areas. Wohlleben noticed as a forest ranger that the artificial planting of trees away from each other using modern techniques in managed forests differed from forested areas in private properties where trees were clustered close to each other helping preserve social networks. This reimagining of trees giving the woods new life has become popular, with one talk show host saying he now takes a walk in the woods with a fascination for the nature around him.

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Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer launched a series of acquisitions after becoming CEO in 2012. Tumblr was acquired for $1 billion. Yahoo has disclosed in a regulatory filing that it plans to write down the entire value of that acquisition. A number of other acquisitions have also failed to deliver value as Yahoo struggles in ad revenues- mobile ad revenues for Yahoo in the 1st quarter of 2016 were $250 million compared to $4.5 billion or 17 times that for Facebook. Yahoo has 200 million visitors each month, but its display ads are not strong on mobile and its mobile apps have not done well with users. As advertising shifted to mobile Yahoo stumbled badly. The failed acquisitions investment could have been better utilized in retaining talented mobile engineers, but Yahoo's CEO resorted to cost cutting when the strategy of looking at consumer trends for news content through digital magazine investments failed. As a result Yahoo suffered from slumping morale and a brain drain.

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The new Apple iPhone 4S failed to impress analysts looking for further advances in design and capabilities. This is the fifth generation of the iPhone that was first introduced in 2007. It has a speedier processor, an improved camera, and voice-command services. The iPhone generated $13.3 billion out of total Apple revenue of $28.6 billion, in second quarter 2011. Analysts estimate Apple sold 22 millon iPhones in the third quarter 2011, and is expected to sell 25 million iPhones in the fourth quarter. The 4S iPhone uses the same Apple A5 processor chip that is found in the iPad 2 tablet, with twice the earlier speed for downloading data, and seven times faster speed for graphics enabling better videogame display. A personal assistant software Siri enables voice commands for checking weather and responses to text mesages. Prices start at $199 for 16 gigabyte models with a two year contract. Sprint, AT&T and Verizon will offer the phone.

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Japanese prime minister Noda setup a council to look at three energy options, the first to phase out nuclear energy completely by 2030, the second to reduce dependence to 15%, and the third to keep nuclear dependence at current level of 20-25%. Renewable energy use goes up from 10 to 20% under all the options. At one point it appeared that the government would choose the second option. Now with growing public opposition the government is considering the first option seriously to phase out nuclear energy. After the passage of the legislation doubling the sales tax to 10% in three years, and increasing unpopularity, the government is looking for ways to accomodate public opinion. Noda will now meet with nuclear protesters. A recent poll in the Asahi Shimbun shows 43% favoring zero-nuclear policy, and 31% supporting the 15% option, only 11% support keeping nuclear energy at the 20-25% option.

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The mortgage interest deduction mostly benefits wealthier people with larger mortgages who need it least, and who are likely to buy homes regardless of the deduction, say experts. Both the Brookings Institution and other experts such as Moody's chief economist, Mark Zandi, see the deduction as part of the negotiations for deficit reduction. The Brooking Institution's Ted Gayer, says the deduction subsidizes acitvity such as borrowing large amounts of money to buy larger homes which the U.S. should not want to subsidize in the current state of the country's finances. The Simpson-Bowles plan and the Feldstein-Romney plan sought to put unnecessary tax expenditures and deductions on the table for negotiation. The deduction was not part of the last tax reform in 1986 under president Reagan. Zandi says any changes should be phased in over a number of years so that housing sales ar not affected in the current recovery. David Stephens, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association says any changes should be implemented gradually. ...

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Many small, high growth companies in China have listed on US stock exchanges through back-door mergers with shell companies. The questionable practice are in the "reverse takeover" market for Chinese listings. It involves networks of accountants, lawyers and bankers helping to bring these Chinese companies into US stock markets. Some of these companies have minimal revenues, questionable accounting and no clear corporate governance. By mid 2010 about 340 Chinese companies were listed on US stock exchanges and were using small largely unknown US auditing firms, who were contracting the work back out to local Chinese firms, according to the SEC's chief accountant. The SEC is conducting an investigation into this practice. The House Financial Services Committee is looking into this, especially because it is feared that with the interest in Chinese listings there is the opportunity for self-dealing and potential fraud. Says Rep. Chris Lee: "I don't want this to be a junior Madoff scandal."...

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The importance of time and compound interest in investing cannot be overstated. Over long time horizons steady saving and investing using index funds such as Vanguard with low expenses can take advantage of compound interest to generate good returns. This happens for a strategy of dollar-cost averaging into broad indexes over longer horizons. The longer horizons help overcome fluctuations and volatility, even bubble behaviours, as compound interest plays a larger role. Investing based on timing is not viable because no one is prescient about the market. It is risky if this route of timing is taken because the investor ends up staying out of the market for long periods thus missing out on the power of compound interest to generate good returns. One way of looking at this is to take a $100 investment and see what happens by the sixth year on a calculator if it is invested at 10%, in the sixth year it generates 16% on the original $100.

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Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah sign a powersharing agreement brokered by the U.S Secretary of State Kerry and president Karzai after Afghanistan elections in 2014. The question is whether the two can set aside their differences and make it work, and can they negotiate some form of peace agreement with the Taliban to give Afghanistan and the region years of peace after so much conflict. Pakistan and India's elites and military need to step up to the plate to set aside differences by looking to the long term future of the region and the aspirations of the people for better infrastructure, services, education and healthcare, so long denied to the region. The Kashmir floods, and the floods in Pakistan before that, recent elections in India and Pakistan showing the clear aspirations for development of the people, are a reminder of so much that remains to be done and so much that was never done.

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Italy will get 6 billion euros in savings from lower interest rate charges on its debt as a result of lower borrowing costs in capital markets. Italy's borrowing costs were at record low of 2.08% for debt issued in 2013. The new budget fails to provide relief in payroll taxes that would help reduce high youth unemployment. A payroll tax cut will increase take home pay of lower income workers by about 15 euros a month. Carlo Cottarelli, IMF expert, has the task of doing a spending review to cut 32 billion euros in public spending within 3 years. The Letta administration is looking at which tax credits to eliminate. These tax breaks range from aftershool sports programs and veterinary costs and amount to 130 billion euros a year. Automatic measures to reduce spending are part of recent Italian legislation and act to keep spending down. limits in the event the political system fails to produce agreement.

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Discussion at a U.S. Fed meeting in Jan 28-29, 2014, as revealed in the minutes for that meeting. It shows Fed officials such as Bullard of the St Louis Fed asked for a debate on interest rates, but most Fed oficials at the meeting including Lockhart of the Atlanta Fed, supported current tapering policy to wind down bond purchases buy the end of 2014. Some of the discussion went to how fast the unemployment rate had declined from 7.9% to the 6.5% threshold set by the Fed, and what this meant as other signs show weakness in the U.S. economy. The drop in the unemployment rate reflected more older workers retiring and to an unusual degree discouraged workers dropping out and not looking for work. Should the Fed put more weight on inflation and financial stability some officials argued, especially as inflation was still about a percentage point below the 2% target by some estimates.

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Petrobras set a record for emerging market debt issues by exceeding the $7.5 billion bond sales by Venezuela in 2007 and earlier sales of $7 billion by Qatar and Russia, according to Dealogic. It made a $11 billion bond sale to investors in May 2013 with bonds maturing in 10 years priced for yield of 4.522%. Petrobras plans to spend $237 over five years for new deep water offshore fields in the Atlantic which require advanced technology and large investment. Petrobras bonds traded at about $1.10 on the dollar in May 2013, after reaching a high of $1.15 in 2012, according to MarketAxess BondTicker. Petrobras is one of the biggest emerging market bond issuers, and investors were becoming cautious because of the large issuance and government involvement in Petrobras. Yet with 10 year Treasurys yielding 1.922% investors looking for high yields placed $40 billion in orders in New York on May 13, 2013.

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EU leaders and proposals to limit tax avoidance by digital companies by requiring the companies to show the profits in the countries where they are made. This would require changing bilateral treaties. France is looking at proposals to tax companies by the number of clicks or user data. Large digital companies, including Apple and Google declare most of their European revenue in Ireland using legal loopholes in that country to shift profits to lower tax locations. A Senate report in the U.S. in May 2013 shows Apple using technicalities in Irish and U.S. laws to pay only a small amount in corporate taxes in four years 2009-2012 on $74 billion. Fredrik Reinfeldt, the prime minister of Sweden stated the argument for fairness in tax policy- "These companies ask for a lot of investment in infrastructure, in research and development, they want to have well educated staff members. Well, let's keep that together: Pay your taxes so we can afford all of these investments."

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France's finance minister says the government will focus on growth and set deficit targets that will support growth. There is a feeling in the business community that France has reached the limit for tax increases. The government has given up the goal of reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013. The government says the deficit will be about 4.1% in 2013 and 3.6% in 2014. Economic growth is expected to be only about 0.1% for 2013, and 0.9% for 2014, lower than earlier forecasts. Muscovici has said the French are fed up with higher taxes, and he is looking for savings in spending. About 15 billion euros of savings are planned in the 2014 budget from ministry expenses and healthcare spending. Extra taxes of 6 billion euros planned for the 2014 budget will now be cut to 3 billion euros. To increase growth it is necessary to stabilize taxation and give business a clear picture for 2014-2015.

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CEO Jeffrey Boyd of Priceline.com hands the CEO role to Darren Huston, a former Microsoft executive. Boyd will continue as chairman. During a remarkable leadership for the company following the dotcom bust Boyd made important acquisitions, including Booking.com. The smaller online travel companies with a focus on hotels in Europe and Asia helped Priceline.com grow rapidly by taking smaller commissions. Priceline shares increased by 65% in 2013 to reach $1000. Revenue for the third quarter of 2013 increased 33% to $2.27 billion with increase in Asian bookings, and overall profit increased to $866 million from $596 million in the year ago quarter. Boyd's strategy in 14 years at Priceline.com was to keep the different websites acquired under separate management to keep brand loyalty and customer perceptions. Websites such as Agoda.com, Booking.com, Kayak, and Rentalcars thrived under independent leadership at each website. Huston headed the international brands and Booking.com from Amsterdam, where he will continue to be located....

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Keynes remark about a change of mind coming after looking at facts that have changed and Bernanke's experience last week in a similiar situation. Gertler, who heads Columbia University's economics department believes Bernanke has a good grasp of the facts, even though the markets and economy are still on a tightrope. Background about Ben Bernanke's growing up in a small farm town in South Carolina, named Dillon, and his feel for the common man, as old mills gradually closed down his area and people were without jobs. He brings a good understanding of the Great Depression, having spet much time studying the policy errors of that time. He is also not fixed about anything and willing and able to look at the facts and new facts as things change. Gertler for one does not see anything wrong with Bernankes inital perception of the situation and the change after studying things more closely, if anything he sees it as a plus, initial caution followed by quick action. time.

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Ballmer is not able to answer the question about how by taking 2 companies that are slow moving you could combine them and get acceleration- except by saying that 2 people working on search would now be one person after integrating the 2 companies, and one person is freed to work on aspects of the emerging social media and work with other publishers. Is Ballmer too optimistic about such an integration of Yahoo and Microsoft when he says that we (both companies) have fantastic talent and fantastic assets, and this would just get Microsoft the breakthrough in search and advertising its looking for. The integration alone would take a lot of management time especially considering the different cultures. The comparitive freedom of the search companies and the more structured hierarchical approach, some would say regimented approach, at Microsoft. Could microsoft culture stifle Yahoo culture or would Microsoft end up changing its culture, which may be less likely considering that Microsoft and Ballmer are the ones integrating Yahoo. ...

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JD Powers survey has lowered its annual sales rate to less than 15 million vehicles going down to 14.8 millon annual sales rate in ths spring 2008. GM and Ford are still looking at sales rate much above 15 million. What if the credit squeeze, oil prices and the recession lower sales to below Powers surveys? GM and Ford now have more flexibility to cut production with their new UAW agreements and this should helpreduce production volume. Also the auto companies have offered buyouts to every unionized employee. Expect further production cuts, as the auto companies are now going in the direction of cutting production rather than flooding the market with incentives. Also the pace of restructuring is likely to accelerate as the economy deriorates in 2008 and beyond. Carefully considering all the information available upto this point in Glinfo it does not appear that things will improve by yearend 2008 as some are expecting, hoping against hope.

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Costco's money saving strategies. Says Sinegal, son of a coal miner, "the biggest concern to me is that we lose our way and start thinkig it doesn't matter if you charge another dimeor another dollaar or another hundred dollars. Wihtout those disciplies, we don't have anything." Costco looks at every small saving, a penny here, a dime there. Savings in bananas, savings in pallets, savings in truckers time and trucks, on and on it goes. Costco gets three quarters of its operating profits from its membership fees of $50 to $100 from its 29 million members and it cannot afford to lose members who leave because bargains are not there or prices are not absolutely low for quality products. Sinegal is challenging Costco people to come up with new ways to save and pass on te savings to customers and where suppliers raise prices looking for alternative sources as with Bonita bananas fro Ecuador.

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FDIC program for loan modification at IndyMac Bank. About 3500 loans were modified, and 15,000 borrowers contacted in recent weeks with offers for lower affordable monthly payments. FDIC's innovation is to create a comprehensive program with clear guidelines so that a lot of loans can be modified without doing it on a case by case basis which would take too long. Loans are modified by reducing interest rates and the principal amount so that the payments are affordable each month, and the FDIC has come up with 38 to 40% of the previous monthly payment as about the right amount. It also looks at tax information to verify earnings. There have been complaints about the responsiveness of FDIC Indymac call centers which may have inadvertently turned down some homeowners looking for help. A big problem is that the FDIC can do little for loans sold to other investors so that out of 653,000 loans serviced by Indymac Bank only about 47,000 are eligible for FDIC modification program. ...

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Wagoner says GM can get 37mpg on average by 2012 for its cars in response to Congressional demand for higher fuel efficiency and energy conservation. Congress is looking for European mandated levels of 50mpg by 2015, which were initially opposed by European automakers also. It becomes the condition for loans. The awfully bad unemployment numbers for November of 533,000 layoffs led to some compromise from Speaker Pelosi, so that $15 billion could come as a bridge loan to the Detroit automakers from the $25 billion allocated for the specific purpose of fuel efficiency technologies. The only way this compromise could be reached is by a complete shift by the auto executives on the issue of fuel efficiency, which is a sore point with Congress especially the way automakers in Detroit have dragged their feet on this issue over 2 decades, contributing to the jump in oil prices in 2007 and early 2008.

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A general strike is planned in Catalonia, Spain to protest police action preventing a referendum vote on independence called by Mr. Puigdemont, head of the state government. The government in Madrid sees the vote as illegal and could take away the regional government's powers under Article 155 of the Constitution. There are varying reports on how many people voted, with this BBC report saying that Mr. Puigdemont's estimate of 90% of people having voted is inaccurate. BBC News says turnout was relatively low at 42%, weakening Mr. Puigdemont's position. Talks are now taking place with Pedro Sanchez of the opposition Socialist party and Albert Rivera of the centrist Ciudadanos party. Mr. Puigdemont now calls for talks with the Spanish government, and mediation by the EU. The European Commission calls this an "internal matter" for Spain, that should be tackled using the Constitution. Other regions of Spain including Galicia where prime minister Rajoy comes from also suffered under the Franco dictatorship following the Civil War, including his family so that Mr. Rajoy does not represent Madrid so much as the new aspirations of the different regions in Spain to try to write a new chapter in Spanish politics. That chapter shown in a book by Mr. Rajoy on Spain's future clearly shows respect for autonomous regions as the direction for Spain. In Valencia and Catalonia one finds the regional languages used and this is respected under the Constitution. Yet the period under General Franco rankles many in Spain, more so in Catalonia and the Basque region, when the regional language could not be used. As in Scotland smaller parties that were not in government for decades now enjoy more support. Yet it is not clear that all the people of these regions want to permanently break the links with Spain or England under separatist parties that have only recently come to power. This is why the European Union is reticent on this issue.  ...