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With the strong positions taken by Clinton and Trump on China in the 2016 election campaign, U.S. relations with China enter a new phase. The strident tone in the campaign on China on trade deficit, women's issues, human rights, comes with the issues relating to China's role in the South China Sea and cyber espionage already in the background.

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Companies in the U.S. automibile market are again increasing their dependence on incentives to promote sales. GM's average incentive per vehicle was $3,732 in February 2011, according to Credit Suisse, up 13% from 2010.

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A look at two crises in 1918 and 1957 of virus pandemics shows early and decisive action to prevent public from gathering and intermingling, are critical. In today's densely populated urban environments this translates into lockdowns and quarantines that are strictly enforced. The 1918 pandemic took 50 million lives worldwide, the 1957 pandemic took 1 million lives worldwide, says this report based on some estimates. MIstakes were made then and science was not as developed for vaccines and new drugs. Which is why health authorites are taking this very seriously. Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at coronavirus health crisis in relation to earlier disasters- SARS 2003 originating in China, 1957 flu epidemic, 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, to draw insights on what measures have worked best. Previous epidemics and crises provide clues on what makes things worse or better and the long term consequences of actions. The more health and safety are prioritized there is some impact on the economy. But crises have proven that the economic impact is temporary and short lived with the economy and jobs bouncing right back once the crisis has passed. The second insight is that early on in the crisis there is a great deal of uncertainty, leading to fumbled or delayed, or timid response. Sort of like lets wait for more information coming out of China, or now Italy, which happened first in February, and then again in March. Tim Adams who worked in the U.S. Treasury Department during 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina, and is now the president of the Institute of International Finance, says if you look to plan a perfect response you lose valuable time. Time is of the essence. Learning to make speed the priority, to think in tranches, be visible, and worrying about how to pay for it later, is what he says he has learned from these crises response efforts. In the case of the coronavirus, some valuable time was lost becausee of the uncertainty and lack of early information, making speed and rapid comprehensive action very critical. The Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 infected over 500 million people worldwide and killed 50 million or more, including 675,000 in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. During this epidemic the Chicago public health commissioner flatly opposed closing businesses, saying worry kills people more than the epidemic. A 2007 study shows cities that took that attitude saw higher death tolls in the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918. Philadelphia waited 16 days before restricting social gatherings, St Louis took just 2 days. The result: the daily death rate from the epidemic peaked at level five or more times higher in Philadelphia than in St. Louis. Social distancing was not much of an issue then as people worked in jobs that required less contact, such as farming, fishing and forestry, as well as other jobs that did not require that contact in large offices.   ...

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Banco Santander, Brazil, sold 600 million units at a price of 23.5 reais each, according to a filing with Brazil's regulator. With each unit representing 55 common shares and 50 preferred shares. The offering was increased from a planned 525 million to 600 million units so that investor demand could be met. Santander's US traded stock was priced at $13.50 each. Santander following a series of acquisitions is Brazil's third largest bank after Itau Unibanco and Bradesco, having a 10.2% market share. It is also the largest IPO for Brazil. The growing demand for emerging market securities is evident in the rate at which the Bovespa Brazil Index jumped in 2009.

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In a crucial demographic Donald Trump's provocative remarks cause a stir and a slide by 13 percentage points. In late July NYT/CBS polls show 72% support among Republican women. McCain won 89%, Romney 93%, George W. Bush 93%.  Divisive tactics hurt particularly with women, say experts. In states such as Pennsylvania this is evident, as Trump has 27% there for women overall and Clinton 58%, according to one poll. The Rutgers Center for Women and Politics has studies on how women diverge in their concerns and lives from men- from lower pay, longer life expectancy, and role of government in helping them,  to cite a few. Clinton has released television ads in 5 swing states directly appealing to mothers, showing children, and emphasizing kitchen table issues, job creation. College educated white women in particular carefully look at the issues, and make independent judgements based on character and temperament, and are less likely to ignore repeated provocative remarks or clearly sexist comments. ...

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President George Bush said in 2005, that if someone wanted to get a glimpse of how he thinks on foreign policy, he should read Nathan Sharansky's book "The Case for Democracy." Sharansky was an aide to soviet physicist and human rights advocate Andrei Sakharov. Here he is interviewed by David Feith of the Wall Street Journal. His outspoken activism in favor of the right of Soviet Jews to emigrate got him 9 years in the Soviet Gulag. He was released from prison in 1986, with the strong support of President Reagan. He emigrated to Israel and served in ministerial posts and in the Israeli parliament. Sharansky says the recent protests in Egypt prove his fundamental points. That there are limits to how much you can control people through the use of fear, and that all people, regardless of religion and culture, desire and want freedom. This is a very human message, it showed its power when the Berlin Wall fell, and it is true today in the Arab world. He says the fear that this endangers the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty is not well founded. Over the last 30 years the border with Syria has been quiet, because it is really Israeli deterrance that is responsible for this and the quiet border with Egypt. He adds there is no justification for Mubarak remaining, as it only creates hostility in the Arab world against the US and Israel. And he says that Mubarak was no friend of the Jewish people, because even as he made peace with Israel, he continued to let anti-Semitism thrive and used Jews as the enemy to enhance his control. Sharansky says Gaza and Hamas control after the election was an unusual situation because of the corruption of the people around Arafat, so that even Christian villages supported Hamas. And he says the longer a dictatorship is in place the worse the situation becomes in creating more hostility to all those who support the dictatorship, including the US and Israel. For Sharansky, the Obama adminstration's response to the Iranian protests after what is seen as a stolen election in Iran, were one of the greatest betrayals of freedom in modern history. To prevent a one time, one person, one vote, Sharansky says the democratic institutions have to take root and this will take more than 8 months, so guarantees need to be put in place that this is not allowed to happen. Safeguards put in place to ensure that whoever is elected cannot survive if democratic institutions and reforms and democracy building does not occur. Dissidents like Mr Ibrahim and others should enjoy the ability to build trade unions and women's organizations. Sharansky says this is a real chance, a chance for the US and the free world to become a partner in change. In change that will help Egypt pass the town square test. Can people freely protest and express their grievances in the town square. And move from this fundamental change to establishing democratic processes and institutions. ...

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Incredulous. Thats the thought as one sees S&P data showing wall street analysts forecasts showing 315% rise in earnings for financial sector companies and 74% for S&P 500 stock index for 4th quarter this year over last year. Cautions against believing these forecasts and thinks them incredible. Shows that forecastste are way off as they appear to be sticking to a conventional view that till recently did not even accept that the US could be in a recession already. And Bear Stearns being done in by rumors this theory doesn't hold as it was leveraged with debt at 33 times equity capital, Bear was borrowing money heavily to invest, as highly leveraged as Carlyle Capital the mortgage fund that also saw a collapse. And management was weak in anticipating things could deteriorate quickly. Interestingly this is happening with auto sales as forecasts at GM are way behind the curve. Part of the problem may be that things are deteriorating so quickly that some people havent caught up and are still hoping for things to get better by the latter part of the year a scenario on which hope was pinned in January 2008 when things were a bit better....

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The relations between the former president Obama and the current president Trump have soured in the first 100 days. Obama lauded activists opposing the travel ban, and Trump sees leaks being conducted for his administration by Obama supporters. Obama was clear from the beginning that he would voice his opinion when it came to systematic discrimination, right to dissent, and deportation of children. Trump's claims that Obama ordered his offices to be wiretapped during the election have caused a rift. Trump took to Twitter to says that Affordable Care Act was "a total disaster," and made it personal by saying "How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very sacred election process. This is Nixon/Watergate. Bad (or sick) guy!" Attorney General Sessions said he will recuse himself from the investigations into Russian efforts to influence the election.

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Foxconn announces salaries for workers would increase by 16-25% to about $400 a month before overtime. Foxconn plans to reduce overtime. Foxconn is a major supplier in China for Apple Computer.

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The shift away from Iranian oil with U.S. pressure and sanctions, and higher oil prices, could pose challenges for the Indian macroeconomic outlook in 2020.

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Parussini describes the different style of new RBI Governor Urjit Patel, who is no rock star economist like his predecessor Raghuram Rajan. Rajan is quoted as once saying; "My name is Raghuram Rajan and I do what I do." Rajan engaged widely with the media. At his first press conference Patel made a short statement thanking RBI staff, and turned it over to staff at RBI who talked about financial supervision, banking regulation and other issues. Patel's answers were short without follow-up questions, the whole event over in 20 minutes. Patel was chosen by the new government of prime minister Modi to run RBI in 2016.

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David Super, a professor at Georgetown University Law School, says letting the fiscal cliff cuts in spending go into effect is fairer to the poor and middle class than the $1.2 trillion in spending cuts proposed by president Obama and the Democrats. He says the pressure of public opinion would lead to some minideals for the Bush tax cuts to go to lower incomes and for restoring some funds to defense after the fiscal cliff agreement goes into effect, leading to a fairer outcome.

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The deal for buyout of Alitalia by Air France-KLM values Alitalia at0.10 euros a share about 80% below its closing share price of 0.53 euros per share last week. Air France-KLM will give one of its shares for 160 shares of Al Italia and will take on the airlines 1.3 billion euros in debt and losses of a millon euros a day. This values Alitalia at 139 million euros. The Italian Government has put in 4.3 billion euros in the last 5 years to keep Alitalia running till the European Comission ruled out any further help. Alitalia's market share in Italy has dropped to discount airlines like Air One Easyjet and Ryanairdropping from 80% to 30% in the last ten years. The new deal will drop Milan's airport considered to be one of the worst in Europe as a hub and use the airport in Rome ast he third hub after Paris and Amsterdam. It will also retain the Alitalia name. The fire sale of Al Italia shows how the new economic climate is affecting Europe and how a recession in the US could affect the market. At the time Al Italia was also running out of cash with only 282 million euros of cash left at the end of Jan 2008....

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A Pew Research poll shows Democratic voters now favor a bold ambitious agenda by large margins. Voters seeking compromise swung sharply going downwards from 69% to 46%. Many are calling for Medicare for All. In the Republican Party the shift is slight from 46% to 44%.

In the House the Congressional Progressive Caucus now has about 90 members. Of the 50 newly elected members who are House Democrats 20 are part of this Caucus pushing for bold action.

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This WSJ article provides a detailed account of the positions of Clinton and Trump on Wall Street, the financial industry, banks, Dodd-Frank, regulatory reform, 6 weeks before the U.S. presidential election.