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Inozemtsev of the Institute of Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow, asks the question wht if the Russian economy shows no growth in 2017, and 2015-2016 become the beginning of a serious downturn. If oil prices remain low for an extended period as now looks likely with factors such as shale oil technologies, Iranian oil, and Saudi policy, playing an increasingly long term role, Russia could face some of the problems former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, other business leaders including head of Sberbank, warned about. A major problem that Inozemtsev points to is the change in the business climate for foreign investment in 2012-2016 as the Russian economy looks more inward, and the departure of many foreign companies. During the period 2000-2008, a major boost to the economy came from foreign investment which brought with it management and technological improvements. No emerging market country, including China, can have a bright future without access to new technologies and investments from foreign investment. The current period starting in 2009 stands in sharp contrast to the earlier period with the Russian economy lacking the boost from foreign investment, facing capital outflows, and international conflicts creating a long term effect on oil prices. Russia needed time to move its economy away from commodity dependence through technological improvements and investment, yet this does not appear to be happening, raising serious questions....

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Polls by Renato Mannheimer show popular support for the People of Freedom party of Mr. Berlusconi, which won 37% of the vote in 2008, is now down to 17% This comes after a series of corruption scandals. The most recent involves embezzlement of 1.7 million dollars by a politician from the Rome-Lazio regional government. New parties are being formed which are drawing increasing support. The Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo, a former comedian, which opposes being in the eurozone and calls it a "noose" for Italy shows 18% support, according to a poll by the SWG agency. In that poll the Italy of Values party had 6% support, and the Left Ecology party 6%. Mannheimer says only one third of Italian voters are now in favor of the large established parties, indicating a big change is underway in Italian politics. The new parties are also critical of prime minister Monti's policies. This happens just as political and business leaders in Italy are calling for Monti to run for office to continue policy changes he has made to improve Italy's competitiveness and lead to economic recovery. Monti, a former EU Commissioner, was appointed as prime minister after pressure from German chancellor Merkel and the EU led to a loss of parliamentary support for Mr Berlusconi with key members of his own party defecting. After passing legislation for changes to Italian labor laws and making other shanges to improve Italy's competitiveness since taking office in November 2011, Monti is now seen in Italy, and outside Italy in EU circles, as the only person who can lead Italy out of the economic crisis; even though his reforms and austerity measures have not proved popular....

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German chancellor Angela Merkel took a lot of criticism during the height of the euro crisis in 2010-2012, but maintained her composure, sense of direction, and flexibility to a changing environment. She emerges from the leadership test more confident than ever during the 2013 elections for chancellor. Relations with Greece under president Samaras are also being mended after the riots in Athens during 2011-2012. She has also shown flexibility coupled with firmness in the setting of deficit targets for eurozone countries, and the courage to address issues of equity and fairness by calling for setting minimum wages industry by industry. On social and womens issues members of her cabinet have pushed for fairness. She will be remembered for her leadership, ability to learn from mistakes as time progressed during the eurozone crisis and taking firm action when needed, as the eurozone recovers from its financial crisis.

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Porter cites a report by Kai Daniel Schmid and Ulrike Stein of the Macroeconomic Policy Institute in Dusseldorf. The report shows the top 10% of Germans having 26% of the country's income before taxes and transfers in 1991. This increased to 31% by 2010. For the same period of about 20 years the bottom half of the population took in 17% in 2010 dropping by 5% from 22%. The growing income inequality in Germany is comparable to what has happened in the U.S. over this period.

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Mitt Romney's position on the auto industry bailout was spelled out in an article in the New York Times in 2008 titled "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt." Romney opposed government loans to the auto industry. Because of the unusual factors that faced the auto industry such as the subprime mortgage driven financial credit crisis, financial market volatility and GM and Chrysler being shut out of credit markets, the need to maintain buyer confidence during bankruptcy, the planned bankruptcy with government loans was seen as the way to rescue a crucial part of the U.S. manufacturing industry by other business executives such as Jack Welch of GE, and by many adviors to the government from the private sector.

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Efforts by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia to mediate differences between Qatar, which supports the Muslim Brotherhood, and Egypt's military government under Sissi, as the security threats in the region intensify. At the Gulf Cooperation Council meetings an effort to reduce differences between the Saudis and U.A.E. with Qatar, as the Middle East fragments bringing conflict to Libya and Iraq, in addition to Syria. Islamic State now threatens Saudi Arabia. The U.S. operates its main command center from Doha, Qatar. Iran supports the U.S. and Iraq under the Abadi government as it works to reduces sectarian Sunni-Shiite tensions and push back Islamic State. The Saudis and Iran now find themselves on the same side and see the need to reduce Shiite-Sunni tensions to restore peace to the region. This is the new background to the efforts to heal regional tensions in 2014-2015, as a reluctant Obama administration takes up American responsibility to restore peace to the region and avoid fragmentation....

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Bill Clinton, says about his foundation, in talking to voters in Detroit- " all we have done is save lives. If creating jobs and saving lives is bad, I guess you can zing me with it." He told another crowd in Durham, N.C, that he was tickled by Trump's comment that the Clinton Foundation was a "criminal enterprise." The criticism of the foundation hurts Mr. Clinton because of the lifesaving work it has done for AIDS, malaria and saving lives. The Clinton Foundation made the error of taking donations from overseas in the zeal for donations, which gave some critics an opportunity to smear the foundation. Another error was not to strictly separate the work of Bill Clinton from Hillary's work at the State Department. Even though in its activities it has been exceptional in its work. In poor countries like Haiti it has helped people overcome poverty. On one achievement alone the Foundation's work is exceptional- bringing HIV/AIDS medication at affordable prices to 11.5 million people in 70 countries. It has also worked to reduce obesity among American school children, and improved lives through its health initiative, including lives of farmers in African countries. George W. Bush did exceptional work in Africa for AIDS/HIV. Clinton's activities continue an American tradition of helping people in Africa's poorest regions.  In this case the funds raised aggressively by Bill Clinton during speeches, were used to save lives or improve lives. This has been lost in the criticism of the Clinton foundation, as if the good work done by George W. Bush for AIDS in Africa can ever be fairly diminished in the slightest way by criticism of the Bush family. ...

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Jenna Wortham asks the question do tech companies have undue influence in Washington especially when they are pursuing their own ecosystem expansion, citing an example from Facebook app Free Basics. There is another question that comes with the election campaigns of Sanders, Trump and Clinton, and issues of upward mobility. With this issue raised also by Janet Yellen of the U.S. Federal Reserve of the loss of intergenerational mobility in the U.S. at a conference in Oct. 2014. This question is whether the tech world in California can be sensitive to the problems of cities depending on manufacturing in the midwest and the eastern U.S. that are recovering from deep recession, because the environments are so different. Working in the tech world in California is so different from the rest of the country, almost a different way of life. It also has deep political implications, because the priorities are different. Sometimes as with the TPP trade agreement they may conflict- this includes an industry such as the auto industry that also is incorporating technology at an accelerating pace and which has employed many times more people than does the tech industry in California, and in many states. This leads to president Obama's support for the TPP trade agreement, an agreement which analysis by some experts shows is more beneficial to the tech industry in California than to the auto industry in the midwestern states. The NYT's Krugman says overall for the U.S. it is marginally helpful as most of the gains in free trade are already behind us. See Lyrarc using search terms-Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, Trans Pacific Partnership. Yet it remains a mystery why president Obama has made it a part of his legacy, when Hillary Clinton realizing the issues in this election has clearly stated she will not support it. It has other implications as well, as it has given rise to demagogic rhetoric in this election, where other issues far more significant such as the condition of western democracy are at stake. ...

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Some of the crude rhetoric at Donald Trump rallies, and use of coarse language, according to the NYT. Working class and older Americans show their anger at a system that appears to have left them behind with slogans, stickers, T-Shirts. The idea of the wall figures in much of this and shows that the wall has become not jut about Mexico but a metaphor that captures this anger, that reflects this anger. Another aspect of the 2016 campaign is that those most vulnerable and most in need of help have not sought the comfort of knowing about programs to improve middle class and working class wages, incomes, to build infrastructure, create jobs, stop companies from shifting jobs overseas, plans for improving accesss to health care and education, to ask for specifics and delivery. This is the supreme irony of the 2016 election campaign that not enough attention is going to what will be done for the middle and working class, and what specifics will be delivered, in what time frame- which is essential for restoring the condition of the American middle and working class to where it was in the 2 decades after the Second World War. ...

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Economist Lawrence Lindsey says the Fed has boxed itself and has little choice but to keep interest rates low. Borrowing at the more normal interest rates of 5.7%- which is what it was over the last three decades- and not at the current 2.5%, would mean an increase in borrowing costs for the U.S. government of $800 billion in 2021, says Lindsay. Lindsay bases this on the U.S. debt growing from $14 trillion in 2011 to $25 trillion by 2021, and interest rates going back to normal levels by 2021. Just to put this in perspective Lindsay says it would require all the cuts Republicans and Rep. Ryan are asking for just to pay for the added interest, not even about reducing the size of the U.S. debt. This would be a disaster for the U.S. Treasury, so we're stuck with really low rates. The term used by economists is "financial repression." Savers and retirees will have to put up with low returns. Lowering unemployment is only one aspect of U.S. Fed policy, the other aspect is in the constraints Bernake faces....

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Italy's prime minister, Monti, says he will submit his "irrevocable" resignation, after about 1 year in office, following the withdrawal of support from Berlusconi's People of Liberty party. He told president Giorgio Napolitano he would make an effort to pass the budget and a financial stability law to defer "the consequences of a government crisis" before turning in his resignation.

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Sharp drop in oil prices in Dec. 2015.

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With the strong positions taken by Clinton and Trump on China in the 2016 election campaign, U.S. relations with China enter a new phase. The strident tone in the campaign on China on trade deficit, women's issues, human rights, comes with the issues relating to China's role in the South China Sea and cyber espionage already in the background.

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Friedman describes the lack of decisionmaking, initiative and courage in the Eurozone, India and China to tackle difficult problems. During his visit to India he describes the problems India faces. A serious problem with lack of good governance within the democratic framework. India also has a growing population that will soon surpass China's population, which makes the task of development that much harder, with the small steps India is taking to move forward not making a serious impact. Azim Premji, chairman of Wipro, described it this way: "There is a complete lack of decision-making among leaders in the government. If prompt action is not taken, the country will face a setback. You must appreciate how serious it is." Friedman sees a similiar situation in the eurozone countries as new governments are being formed in Greece and Italy by Papademos and Mario Monti, both technocrats from the European Union. This has the added complication because these experts have not been elected. The fact that they have support and goodwill is because of the failure of the political class in Greece and Italy. The failure of the political class in the U.S. is evident from the stymied negotiations over the deficit, and the lack of leadership from President Obama....

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Congressional Budget Office projections show the difficult choices facing the U.S. - tackling the deficit by letting the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cuts expire will lead to low growth. The alternative is growth with much higher deficits. GDP growth would be at about 2.3% in this fiscal year if the payroll tax cut is kept till December 2012. In fiscal 2013 if a number of tax cuts are permitted to expire and across the board spending cuts take effect as scheduled GDP growth would decline to 1.1%. Taxes would increase by $465 billion in 2013 over 2012 if tax cuts expire - individuals and companies would pay $2.99 trillion in taxes in fiscal year 2013 in that scenario. Spending cuts would take effect in Jan 2013 for $1.2 trillion over 10 years. The result- " a sharp fiscal contraction" in the words of CBO director Elmendorf. Unemployment would go up to 8.9% in 2012 year end and 9.2% in 2013 yearend from 8.5% today, if no agreement is made to extend tax cuts and block spending cuts. The risk of not taking the debt reduction actions is to let the debt grow to $11 trillion over 10 years, an unsustainable path, compared to about $3.1 trillion over 10 years if tax cuts are permitted to expire and spending cuts take place. This is the tough choice facing America in 2012, and comes when Europe is facing similar tough choices....

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With 40% of the unemployment shown as longterm unemployed, U.S. Federal Reserve policies are focussed on bringing down these levels, which pose a risk to the productive capacity in the U.S.

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Brent crude drops below $60 by Dec. 15, 2014.