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Deep differences in 2015 between Alexis Tsipras of Syriza and the Merkel government in Germany on debt forgiveness and the bailouts for Greece
01/26/2015
The deep differences between Greeks and Merkel operate at two levels. On the level of austerity policies Greece shares the view with other EU countries, the governments of Hollande in France and Renzi in Italy that austerity is not the best course for the eurozone. This view is also shared by people in Spain facing unemployment exceeding 20%, though the government of Rajoy in Spain like that of Samaras in Greece lived with the austerity policies with some changes. At this level there is also support from within Merkel's coalition government from Social Democrats. The other level of deep differences is on debt forgiveness and bailouts where Greece has to find its own way out in negotiations hoping that the EU and the IMF will agree to make concessions based on action taken by Syriza to ensure prudence in fianncial management. On issues such as minimum wage one would expect Syriza to be firm and make concessions where the hardship does not fall on the poorer and working class, winning support from the Social Democrats in Merkel's coalition. Beyond the symbolic moves and posturing the actual negotiations are likely to take into account the eurozone's need for help on the fiscal side desired by the ECB's Draghi to support monetary easing to fight deflation, and the need to keep the eurozone intact at a sensitive time. Syriza for its part is aware that a majority of Greeks favor staying in the eurozone.
Linked Articles
Greece’s new prime minister wants Germany to pay for Nazi war crimes - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/26/2015
A young, impatient leftist is Greece’s defiant new face - The Washington PostWashington Post 01/27/2015
Much needed boost from lower oil prices for eurozone countries Germany, France, Italy and Spain
10/09/2014
For countries like Germany in the eurozone with what Draghi calls "fiscal space" but did not use it, the drop in oil prices from $100 to $65 in 2014 offers relief at the right time to get back to growth in 2015.
Linked Articles
Falling Oil Prices Spur New Bets on Global Economic Growth
Wall Street Journal 12/08/2014
Merkel Hints at Economic Policy Shift in GermanyNew York Times 10/09/2014
German chancellor Merkel and U.S. president Obama on an increasing NATO presence in the Baltic States of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia
08/23/2014
Linked Articles
Obama Pledges NATO Backing for Baltic Allies
Wall Street Journal 09/03/2014
Merkel Seeks to Defuse Ukraine Crisis as Convoy Returns to RussiaWall Street Journal 08/23/2014
Putting together the basis for a common approach of Germany and the U.S. to Russia
04/18/2014
Linked Articles
Twin Shocks Shake Foundation of German Power
New York Times 04/18/2014
In Cold War Echo, Obama Strategy Writes Off PutinNew York Times 04/19/2014
The role of Germany's Siemens and U.S.'s Exxon in promoting dialogue and de-escalation following the Ukraine crisis
03/06/2014
Linked Articles
Siemens Chief Meets Putin in Russia
Wall Street Journal 03/27/2014
Exxon Says Russian Projects Remain on TrackWall Street Journal 03/06/2014
The 150 million single children of parents, and the 61 million children of migrant workers- today's young generation in China growing up in unusual conditions
01/17/2014
The children of migrant workers were mostly brought up away from parents in rural areas by grandparents. The children born under a single child policy in urban areas had the opposite happen, with too much attention from doting parents. Both groups were raised in a manner not seen anywhere else in the world and face growing pains and lives with different burdens and needs than the rest of us. China's social and economic experiment may have come too fast, as policy planners may only now begin to realize. A lot may need to be done to address their needs and burdens, not so easily seen as the burdens of pollution and contamination whicha are easily observed.
Linked Articles
End of China’s One-Child Policy Stings Its ‘Loneliest Generation’
New York Times 11/13/2015
Left-Behind Children of China's Migrant Workers Bear Grown-Up BurdensWall Street Journal 01/17/2014
Missteps of German brands in the U.S. market 2013-2015- Adidas and VW
09/06/2013
Linked Articles
How Adidas Aims to Get Its Cool Back
Wall Street Journal 03/26/2015
VW's $1 Billion Bet on U.S. Factory SputtersWall Street Journal 09/06/2013
An assessment of Germany's Angela Merkel's 10 years in office (2)- from the eurozone crisis to Ukraine and the refugee crisis
08/23/2013
Linked Articles
Germans Respond to Merkel's 'Motherly' Side
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2013
The refugee crisis could actually be a boon for Germany - The Washington PostWashington Post 09/10/2015
Airbus shift away from Europe and German government financing after increasing publicly traded shares to 72%
06/16/2013
Linked Articles
Airbus Vows to Fly With Own Wings
Wall Street Journal 02/27/2014
Airbus on Track to Double Profit Margin by 2015Wall Street Journal 06/16/2013
Funding infrastructure needs in Asia and the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
02/14/2013
Led by China, and with founding members India, S. Korea, Britain, Australia, France, Germany and Italy, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is intended to provide much needed financing for infrastructure in Asia. Huge bottlenecks for development exist in Asia's developing countries, including India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Philippines, which can only be tackled through innovative methods of financing. China which has moved ahead in infrastructure development is providing the leadership for this bank. Experts say Europe is right to join, and the U.S. should have supported the idea at the early stage.
Linked Articles
Hostility From U.S. as China Lures Allies to New Bank
New York Times 03/19/2015
Hot Topic in Moscow Talks: How to Fund InfrastructureWall Street Journal 02/14/2013
German chancellor Merkel and the EU plan for aid to Spain's banks in Oct. 2012
10/18/2012
Merkel turns down an effort pushed by France and Spain at the Oct. 2012 EU leaders meeting for direct aid to Spanish banks. Instead money has to go from the European Stability Mechanism fund to Spain after a request by Spain for aid. The aid request by Spain would be met under program of conditionality set by the IMF, EU and ECB. Spain is delaying a request for aid as borrowing rates on Spanish bonds declined to about 5% by late October 2012. The Rajoy government in Spain faces regional spending problems and separatis sentiment in addition to high unemployment and a worsening situation with its banks. Merkel faces elections for chancellor in Germany in Sept. 2013 and says more time is needed to setup the eurozone banking supervisory authority- to be set up in the course of 2013 with the legal setup completed by Jan 2013 as a concession to France. This would push banking supervision and financial architecture till after the election.
Linked Articles
German Refusal on Bank Aid Mars European Summit
New York Times 10/19/2012
Europe Seeks a Spain StrategyWall Street Journal 10/18/2012
Greece's Path Back (2)- Mending relations with Germany
10/05/2012
Linked Articles
Greek Visit Wins Over A Critic In Germany
Wall Street Journal 12/09/2012
Chancellor Merkel to Pay Visit to AthensWall Street Journal 10/05/2012
What a difference a year makes for the government bonds of Italy and Spain
10/02/2012
ECB chief, Mario Draghi made the famous statement on July 23, 2012, that he would "do whatever it takes" to bring down the yields on the government bonds of Italy and Spain. These bond yields had reached 7.5%, worsening the debt position of the two countries. A year later in August 2013 the bond yields were down, the gap with German bond yields narrowed, and the first signs of recovery in the eurozone made investment in the bonds of Italy and Spain attractive. Emerging market debt faced the opposite of what they faced in July 2013, as the currencies of India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Brazil and other developing countries depreciated significantly. As the U.S. Federal Reserve begins its pull back from its monetary easing policy capital flows and foreign investment to to emerging markets reversed causing grief in countries which depended on these inflows to finance deficits in the current account.
Linked Articles
How ECB Chief Outflanked German Foe in Fight for Euro
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2012
Europe Bonds May Offer More ValueWall Street Journal 08/23/2013
The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Warnings at a banking conference in Moscow in October 2014, and the ruble on the brink of collapse on Dec. 17, 2014
10/02/2014
The central bank head, Nabiullina, the Economy minister, Ulyukayev, and the head of Russia's largest bank Sberbank, German Gref, all expressed skepticism about president Putin's confidence in economic policy at a banking conference in Moscow in Oct. 2014. The architect of Russia's finances in the first and second terms of Putin, Alexei Kudrin, expressed alarm in Nov.-Dec. 2014 about lack of confidence in economic measures as the ruble took a hit from lower oil prices. The Putin administration made errors in handling economic policy leading to the ruble going to the brink of collapse by Dec. 17, 2014. This was preceded by miscalculations in policy towards the European Union and Germany leading to a loss of international confidence, and deteriorating relations with OPEC's leading member Saudi Arabia leading to OPEC's production decisions hurting Russia.
Linked Articles
Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters
New York Times 12/17/2014
Putin Trumpets Economic Strength, but Advisers Seem Less CertainNew York Times 10/02/2014
The West and policies towards Russia- (2) Steinmeier and Merkel on Germany's policy in 2015-2016
08/23/2014
Linked Articles
Merkel Seeks to Defuse Ukraine Crisis as Convoy Returns to Russia
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2014
Frank-Walter Steinmeier Meets With Vladimir PutinNew York Times 11/19/2014
BaFin, German federal financial regulatory authority, and the problems at Deutsche Bank- regulators slow to act on information
03/28/2014
Eyk Henning of the WSJ points out the slow response of regulator BaFin to information about problems at Deutsche Bank that suggest a broken culture in a report on March 28, 2014. This comes 6 years after the WSJ first reported the LIBOR rate manipulation in 2008 leading to British and U.S. regulatory investigations. In April 2015 Deutsche Bank made a legal settlement for LIBOR rate manipulation of $2.5 billion with U.S. and British regulators. As the time when regulatory authority passes to the European Central Bank, and after a period of 7 years since the 2008 WSJ report, BaFin finally sends its report on the broken culture at the bank. A month later the two co-CEO's at the bank resign.
Linked Articles
Germany Blasts Deutsche Bank Executives Over Culture
Wall Street Journal 07/17/2015
German Financial Watchdog Bites BackWall Street Journal 03/28/2014
Setting a path for a better future for the people of Ukraine- Germany, the EU and the U.S.
02/23/2014
Linked Articles
What the West Must Do for Ukraine
New York Times 02/23/2014
Aiding Ukraine's DemocratsWall Street Journal 02/24/2014
Growing inequality in the U.S. and Germany with declining incomes and wealth of the bottom half of households- 1985-2015
12/03/2013
Linked Articles
How Quantitative Easing Contributed to the Nation's Inequality Problem
New York Times 10/22/2014
Americanized Labor Policy Is Spreading in EuropeNew York Times 12/03/2013
Banking culture issues- the suicides of Broeksmit, senior executive at Deutsche Bank, following federal German investigations, and of Wauthier, CFO at Zurich Insurance following difficult interactions with former Deutsche Bank executive
09/04/2013
Questions about cultural issues in banking raised by the two suicides, and the culture at Deutsche bank.
Linked Articles
Friction at Zurich Built in Months Before Suicide
Wall Street Journal 09/04/2013
Executive Who Committed Suicide Anxious Amid Deutsche Bank ProbesWall Street Journal 03/26/2014
Amazon's use of temporary workers in Germany and the issue of lower wages
06/19/2013
Linked Articles
Amazon Wage Dispute Spreads Beyond Germany
Wall Street Journal 12/17/2013
Amazon Vexed by Strikes in GermanyWall Street Journal 06/19/2013
Neglect of vital infrastructure needs in Germany and the U.S. 2006-2015
03/15/2013
A decade of neglected infrastructure needs in Germany and the U.S. as both countries face tight budget constraints and postponed priorities.
Linked Articles
A Slowdown on the Road to Recovery
Wall Street Journal 10/14/2013
German Policy Takes Toll on Public WorksWall Street Journal 03/15/2013
Restoring Deutsche Bank's image in 2015- (2) the legal investigations in Germany
12/20/2012
Linked Articles
Image Remake Suffers Hit at Deutsche Bank
Wall Street Journal 12/20/2012
German Financial Watchdog Bites BackWall Street Journal 03/28/2014
The EU debate between France's Hollande and Germany's Merkel before and during the EU's Oct. 2012 meeting
10/17/2012
The issue was direct aid to Spanish banks and the early setup of an EU banking supervisor so that Spain could get early debt relief as its economy struggles with high unemployment of over 25%. Chancellor Merkel turned down direct aid to Spanish banks, and partly relented on banking supervision by agreeing to have the legislation completed by Jan 2013 and the actual setup of the supervision authority during the course of 2013, probably after elections in Germany in Sept. 2013.
Linked Articles
German Refusal on Bank Aid Mars European Summit
New York Times 10/19/2012
Hollande fires warning shot at Merkel over austerity on eve of EU summit | World news | guardian.co.ukThe Guardian 10/17/2012
Mexico's emergence as the fourth largest exporter of cars in the world in 2012
10/02/2012
Mexico is expected to export 2.14 million cars in 2012. This makes it the fourth largest exporter after Japan, Germany, and S. Korea. Mexico is expected to overtake S. Korea in a few years. About 130,000 engineers are graduating each year from Mexico's technical universities, according to President Calderon. Mexican plants have quality and productivity that is comparable to Japanese plants for Nissan, say Carlos Ghosn, Nissan CEO.
Linked Articles
In Mexico, Auto Plants Hit the Gas
Wall Street Journal 11/20/2012
In Mexico, auto industry fuels middle class - The Washington PostWashington Post 10/02/2012
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