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The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Obama's second term- (5) the U.S. president's foreign policy failures in Syria and Iraq seen up close by Clinton and Panetta
08/11/2014
A Defense Secretary and Secretary of State in the Obama administration describe up close president Obama's failure to act at key moments in the crisis in Iraq and Syria. This has badly damaged the U.S. credibility and what it stands for in the Middle East and the rest of the world.
Linked Articles
A Rift in Worldviews Is Exposed as Clinton Faults Obama on Policy
New York Times 08/11/2014
Former Defense Chief Panetta Criticizes Obama in New MemoirWall Street Journal 10/07/2014
Target stores failure to respond quickly to the credt card data breach
02/27/2014
Linked Articles
Target Didn't Follow Up After Hackers Tripped Its Security System
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2014
Target Earnings Slide 46% After Data BreachWall Street Journal 02/27/2014
U.S. households debt to income ratio drops from 130% in 2007 to 108% in 2014, still above historical ratio of 90%
02/18/2014
High student debt of over $1 trillion, banks restricting home loans to higher credit scores, continuing effort to reduce credit card debt, limit spending as U.S. consumer spending recovers very gradually.
Linked Articles
Americans’ Debt-Cutting Levels Off
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
An Ambiguous Omen, U.S. Household Debt Begins to Rise AgainNew York Times 02/18/2014
McDonald's and a shift in nutritional habits in the U.S., especially in the younger age groups
01/17/2014
With about one third of the population in developed countries considered obese, there is greater awareness especially among younger people, about the need to read nutritional labels carefully, look for fresh food, and manage calorie intake. There is a shift also away from fast food to places where there is greater nutritional choice and to eating at home. The recession may have induced more people to consider eating less outside.
Linked Articles
Americans' Eating Habits Take a Healthier Turn, Study Finds
Wall Street Journal 01/17/2014
McDonald's Faces 'Millennial' ChallengeWall Street Journal 08/25/2014
Bill Keller of the NYT and Evan Williams of Twitter on how the flood of internet information is making people uncertain what information to trust
11/03/2013
Linked Articles
A Founder of Twitter Goes Long
New York Times 11/09/2013
Itâs the Golden Age of NewsNew York Times 11/03/2013
The crucial link of good educational system and test scores with economic growth in countries
09/07/2013
Linked Articles
Peterson and Hanushek: The Vital Link of Education and Prosperity
Wall Street Journal 09/11/2013
The Great Stagnation in American EducationNew York Times 09/07/2013
The gradual liquidation of a retail stores brand
08/23/2013
Linked Articles
For Once-Mighty Sears, Pictures of Decay
New York Times 10/29/2013
Sears Crucial Appliance Sales ErodeWall Street Journal 08/23/2013
Insights into the thinking of Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke for a strong labor market before increasing interest rates
07/18/2013
Yellen is expected to look beyond the unemployment rate target of 6.5% set by Bernanke in Dec. 2012, and give emphasis to the long term unemployed. Bernanke also mention the under employment rate as an additional factor to consider.
Linked Articles
Don’t Expect Job Data Alone to Persuade Fed on Rates
New York Times 01/23/2014
Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed MovesWall Street Journal 07/18/2013
Russia's central banker Elvira Nabiullina, the ruble and central bank policies
03/12/2013
A central banker, former economy minister, who led Russia's changes for entry into the World Trade Organization, and policies to stabilize the ruble and Russia's economy during the emerging markets crisis of 2014.
Linked Articles
Putin Taps Pro-Market Economist as Banker
Wall Street Journal 03/12/2013
Russia Prepared to Let Ruble SlideWall Street Journal 01/30/2014
A more cautious Shinzo Abe as prime ministerof Japan in 2013- compared to 2006-2007
12/17/2012
Abe is determined not to repeat the mistakes of his first term as Japan's prime minister following the LDP's popular prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi. That term ended with adefeat in the upper house elections and lasted only 10 months. This means staying close to the U.S. and toning down a nationalist message, with focus mainly on creating economic revival.
Linked Articles
Japanâs Next Leader, Shinzo Abe, Shifts Focus
New York Times 12/17/2012
Japan Voters Sweep In New LeaderWall Street Journal 12/17/2012
China's steadily growing automobile market in 2014-2015 (1)- expanding dealer networks to Tier 2 and 3 cities by Ford Motor and Mercedes Benz
11/23/2012
China's television channel CCTV focusses on consumer issues in its program 315. VW was a focus of one of the reports on consumer issues. Problems in the U.S. for GM and Toyota are likely to keep the focus on other auto companies as well.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/25/2014
Ford Expands Dealer Network in ChinaWall Street Journal 11/23/2012
The weakness in Ford Motor Company's improved results and recovery in 2011-2013
10/30/2012
Ford Europe is one cause for concern. Another problem is the lower market share in light vehicle sales in 2012 and the deteriorating quality and reliability ratings for cars.
Linked Articles
Ford Results Show Power of U.S. Operations
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2012
Ford's Purring, but Its Cars Aren'tWall Street Journal 10/31/2012
Tragedy in Africa (2) - Ebola virus and the breakdown for healthcare, running water, electricity, coupled with food shortages in West Africa
10/10/2014
Linked Articles
Liberia’s Ebola Crisis Puts President in Harsh Light
New York Times 10/30/2014
Rising Food Prices Make Africa Fight Ebola on Empty StomachWall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Euribor close to zero and relief for suffering homeowners with mortgages in Spain, Portugal and other eurozone countries
05/28/2014
Most mortgages in Spain and Portugal are based on the Euribor rate. The ECB's monetary policy under Draghi has led to the decline of the Euribor rate to near zero in 2015, giving homeowners in extremely high unemployment countries such as Spain and Portugal much needed relief. Homeowners in Italy, with stagnant incomes and high unemployment, and other eurozone countries also get relief.
Linked Articles
Tumbling Interest Rates in Europe Leaves Some Banks Owing Money on Loans to Borrowers
Wall Street Journal 04/14/2015
Spain Still Suffering Fallout From Housing BustWall Street Journal 05/28/2014
U.S. household spending in a very gradual recovery as banks make home loans to people with high credit scores and younger buyers defer purchases
02/18/2014
Linked Articles
Americans’ Debt-Cutting Levels Off
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
An Ambiguous Omen, U.S. Household Debt Begins to Rise AgainNew York Times 02/18/2014
Reviving Detroit- Darren Walker of the Ford Foundation and not giving up on American cities
02/15/2014
The Ford Foundation was founded in Detroit in 1936, the Knight Foundation also has roots in the city. Both foundations donated the money needed to revive Detroit in 2014. The state of Michigan under Governor Snyder also acted with exceptional courage and wisdom to save the floundering city after a decade of collapsing infrastructure and services. The state acted responsibly by obtaining a supervisory role over the city's troubled finances. With all the surrounding atmosphere and talk of Republican deadlock with Democrats in the White House and Congress, Snyder, Walker, Judge Rosen, and others showed rare wisdom and courage to come together for innovative solutions.
Linked Articles
Finding $816 Million, and Fast, to Save Detroit
New York Times 11/07/2014
Mediator in Detroit Bankruptcy Walks Fine Line Between City, CreditorsWall Street Journal 02/15/2014
Low wages for workers at retail branches of banks and fast-food retail outlets
12/04/2013
Linked Articles
Low bank wages costing the public millions, report says - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/04/2013
Fast-food workers plan a new wave of walkouts across the nation - The Washington PostWashington Post 12/04/2013
Twitter and the Mid-Market neighborhood in San Francisco- young techies and urban revival
11/01/2013
Linked Articles
Blending Tech Workers and Locals in San Francisco’s Troubled Mid-Market
New York Times 08/16/2015
Twitter Helps Revive a Seedy San Francisco NeighborhoodNew York Times 11/01/2013
Creating friendly livable urban space- the work of Amazon, Google and Twitter in Seattle, San Francisco and Chicago
08/25/2013
Linked Articles
Twitter Helps Revive a Seedy San Francisco Neighborhood
New York Times 11/01/2013
As Amazon Stretches, Seattleâs Downtown Is ReshapedNew York Times 08/25/2013
Poverty and hunger for the working poor in Britain's post industrial north- 2009-2014
08/20/2013
Food charities working in Africa now concentrate their efforts in Britain's post industrial northern towns.
Linked Articles
As the Working Poor Become More Common in Britain, So Does Hunger
New York Times 01/02/2014
U.K. Moves To Tackle Income SqueezeWall Street Journal 08/20/2013
The broken link between credit expansion and GDP growth in China (1)
06/24/2013
Orlik and the editors of the WSJ point to the broken link between GDP growth and credit expansion. The IMF warns of increasing credit expansion. Stalling productivity growth and waste means every dollar of investment is bringing in less GDP growth. Stiglitz and Sen point out the need for improving other indicators such as healthcare, education and the environment as an overall guage of progress not just GDP growth. The new Chinese leadership is aware of the need for rebalance the economy towards consumer spending. Moves to reduce healthcare costs form the first efforts in this direction. Search terms "Orlik," "rebalancing."
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2013
China's Silver Linings PlaybookWall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Obama's second term- (4) the U.S. president's foreign policy failures in Syria and Iraq seen up close by Leon Panetta
02/07/2013
Linked Articles
Former Defense Chief Panetta Criticizes Obama in New Memoir
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2014
Senate Panel Examines Benghazi AttackNew York Times 02/07/2013
Risks Ford Motor, GM and Chrysler face with the resurgence of Toyota in 2013-2015
12/05/2012
Linked Articles
Toyota Again World's Largest Auto Maker
Wall Street Journal 01/29/2013
Detroit's Unsold Cars Pile UpWall Street Journal 12/05/2012
New leadership and old faces, Jiang Zemin, Xi Jinping, and the uncertain outlook for change in China
11/15/2012
Jiang Zemin, 86 years and former president, who set China on the three decade push for modernization, put his imprint on the seven member Politburo Standing Committee that runs China. Jinping and five other members of the Politburo are close allies of Jiang Zemin. Zemin was Mayor of Shanghai, China's business capital during the Koumintang pre war regime and now in the post war period. He made some of the reforms that led to China's entry into the World Trade Organization and its subsequent rise as a major trading nation. His support for Jinping gives the new president room for making political and economic changes that are needed in this period. The older members of the Politburo, most in the mid-60's, placed on the Politburo by Zemin are likely to be cautious and the outlook for change is uncertain.
Linked Articles
Xi Jinping Offers Few Hints of a Shift in Direction in China
New York Times 11/15/2012
Ex-Leader Wins in Beijing Power PlayWall Street Journal 11/16/2012
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