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Mankiw is asked by astudent, why the banks lost 100% of their money if they invested in housing through mortgage securities investments, and housing prices went down only 20%. His answer was the crazy amount of leveraging the banks took on to make higher profits. He points to other changes in teaching Econ 101. The role of financial institutions, the effects of leveraging, the limits of monetary policy when interest rates are already at zero, and the challenge of forecasting. He says economists can't take the blame for missing the crisis completely. In saying this he is saying that economists have only to use what is taught in the classroom, and not use their thinking skills developed through the course of experience in the real world and their intelligence, curiosity and skepticism, all part of an educated mind. It requires some of these skills to tell a bubble when you see one.

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Keynes remark about a change of mind coming after looking at facts that have changed and Bernanke's experience last week in a similiar situation. Gertler, who heads Columbia University's economics department believes Bernanke has a good grasp of the facts, even though the markets and economy are still on a tightrope. Background about Ben Bernanke's growing up in a small farm town in South Carolina, named Dillon, and his feel for the common man, as old mills gradually closed down his area and people were without jobs. He brings a good understanding of the Great Depression, having spet much time studying the policy errors of that time. He is also not fixed about anything and willing and able to look at the facts and new facts as things change. Gertler for one does not see anything wrong with Bernankes inital perception of the situation and the change after studying things more closely, if anything he sees it as a plus, initial caution followed by quick action. time.

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One needs to look at India -US relations over the long span 1900-2025  looking only at the long haul. In taking a look at the relationship in this way Gandhi's letter to FDR during the Quit India Movement from Wardha July 1 1941, and FDR's reply (with Churchill and FDR fighting Japan in 1941) ranks as memorable and long lasting, far likely to prevail as an idea that holds the imagination of it's peoples than the pulls and shifts of different administrations. Even in the  depth of the war against the Nazis in Europe, and the Imperial Japanese Army rampaging through China, Gandhi felt comfortable looking to America as a friend. Churchill was the antagonist at the time unwilling to let the British Empire fade, and FDR was a friend through the Second World War. Gandhi opens his letter to FDR saying "Dear Friend. I twice missed coming to your great country... I have profited greatly from the writings of Thoreau and Emerson..." And FDR writing back "I shall hope that our common interest in democracy and righteousness will enable your countrymen and mine to make common cause..." For India the powerful words of Cordell Hull his Secretary of State, were offered by FDR with unmistakable goals of freedom and democratic process for India. Eisenhower and Dulles support for Pakistan in the 1950's into 1970's, a period of China and India in the 1970's and 1990's shifting away from old economic arrangements, till India US under Biden 2020 where India as with FDR  was "the closest in the world" to the US, following China's shift to Communist rule and now competition with the US. Taking this long perspective India and the relationship with America will be determined by the 1.8 billion people of the two countries (with Indonesia 2.1 billion people), and the potential for this is vast and only growing by the year. There is a natural affinity and feeling that is only now coming into its own because of a shared responsibility, and a shared understanding, as parts of the former British Empire, separated in 1783 and 1947. And the mutual desire to build the modern world on the terms left by advances of science and technology combined with the ancient civilization of the Bible, Buddhism and the Upanishads. In this sense modern India is made with America and does not exist separate from America, and modern America forward is made with India and does not exist separate from India. ...

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A recent poll shows Mr. Trump increasing his support from a bloc of voters that disapprove of his job performance but still give credit to Mr. Trump for an improving economy. A new WSJ/NBC poll shows 51% of Americans disapprove of his overall job performance, with 46% approving. The same percentage that say they disapprove of job performance are also saying they give him credit for a stronger economy up from the 44% in April 2017 who said they approved his way of handling the economy. Wages have increased 3.2%  in each of the last 2 months and unemployment is at an historic low over 50 years. One group that has a 10 point gap when it comes to the economic performance is among Independents, where 38% approve of Mr. Trump but 48% approve his economic performance. A big jump is among Hispanics who have benefited greatly with new jobs in construction and other areas of the economy. Trump's 46% approval rating in May 2019 is among the highest he has achieved, rising 3 points since the last identical poll in March 2019. About 29% still think the Mueller Report clears Mr. Trump of wrongdoing as they did in March. Still things can change as 42% believe the Mueller Report does not clear Mr. Trump of wrongdoing, and another 29% haven't made up their mind. On impeachment hearings about 48% think Congress should let Mr. Trump finish out his term, 49% think there is either enough evidence or Congress should continue investigating with an eye to future impeachment hearings. The survey margin of error is about 4 percentage points, covers 900 adults.  ...

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Rina Bliss, a professor of sociology at Rutgers, says while AI can bring information to kids it cannot make them think. To truly learn children will have to do it themselves and in interaction with teachers, parents and other children. She took the approach of a scientist and let her two children try out AI tools and software and came to this conclusion. One reason she says is that AI is based on computational intelligence and the human mind and brain are not quantifiable. The brain is flowing like a river and always learning from its environments.  There is a social environmental piece says Marin, there is interaction, there is a drive to know and connect, curiosity and passion that are part of learning.  Basically AI is developed through taking vast amounts of information collecting it and ordering it in a certain way. How each originator of the AI orders it affects how it will work. And what is in the basket of information collected will affect how it will work. There is no thinking brain outside of the human originator who put a particular version together. Like every piece of software there are implicit or explicit instructions on how to use the basket of information collected that is put in by an originator who developed the AI software. For these reasons it will only do basic tasks and is not intended for complex tasks that involve thinking processes and social-emotional aspects of human behaviour. The risks of using it begin to grow as soon as it is used for tasks it was never intended to perform such as replacing the human thinking  processes and the socio-emotional aspects of these processes.  If it is used to do things it was never intended for, the larger the activities it performs, the larger the mistakes and risks it it is liable to make or create. If it is assigned the task of transportation for a country, it will at some point be asked to think and at that point it will fail to make the right decisions, making the risks grow exponentially, very, very fast, leading to disaster. ...

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Obama's closest advisor, David Plouffe. Asked about Plouffe's influence in the Obama White House one aide says that Plouffe's imprint is on "everything." For the last 18 months Obama has kept the 2012 election in mind in his actions and kept a campaign focus, on the advice of Plouffe. George W. Bush's advisor, Karl Rove, does not see this positively, as he says it kept the president from governing. One issue on which there is considerable questioning is why President Obama did not support the recommendations of the president's Simpson-Bowles commission on deficit reduction. Though it remains conjecture, it may be because of Plouffe's and other election related advice that reducing deductions- or what are called tax expenditures- as suggested by Simpson-Bowles would be politically unpopular. If true this may be ways in which running for office long before the election date may affect necessary action in governing. The political calculations when allowed to go rampant can distort the needed actions of responsible governing, and lead to timidity, indecision and lack of leadership. ...

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Tom Friedman of the NYT talks with retiring Israeli defense minister, and former prime minister, Ehud Barak, in Tel Aviv. Barak makes the case for seizing opportunities as they arise in a difficult situation, which might be lost if Israel adopts a permanently pessimstic state of mind about the prospect of peace with Arab countries. Barak and Friedman suggest the approach of the Israeli government of prime minister Netanyahu has risks of highlighting the dangers to Israel at its borders, to the point where Israel could lose the ability to make wise and sensible judgements as these opportunities arise, and the Middle East itself changes. Because of the political struggles and conflict in the Middle East this may obscure the newly emerging Middle East, which needs economic advancement to support the aspirations of the overwhelmingly young populations in these countries. This has the potential for a new dynamic that could see the Middle East move beyond Israel to seizing the opportunities presented by economic and technical progress. Similiar to the other nations of Asia, including the Muslim nations of Turkey and Indonesia. ...

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Social unrest grows in Russia as oil falls to $36 a barrrel and Russian growth slows from 8% to the point where its entering arecession and layoffs and salary cuts are taking place at many companies. In the Siberian town of Barnaul large protests took place when the authorites cancelled subsidized public transportation tickets for 200,000 pensioners. The government has adraft law that requires companies to inform the government about impending layoffs and salary cuts. And there is agradual devaluation of the ruble so that there is less adverse reaction in the economy. THe ruble has lost 111% of its value since it reached its peak in August. The government has required restraint in covering the crisis and no mention of the word crisis or reference to social unrest as there is considerable fear in the government and public's mind from the previous crisis days when the ruble collapsed under President Yeltsin causing wwidespread poverty and social disruption and economic failures. Strikes by migrant workers in the Urals city of Yektarinburg. The governments approach is to provide some kind of ressure outlet and let things cool off by reversing actions like the decision to let pensioners use their discounted public transit tickets. As a result of the downturn 7500 firms have informed the government they intend to layoff people and 207,000 workers have had working hours reduced since October 2008. And the government is drawing up alist of significant enterprises needing a bailout....

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The new faces in the Biden administration on economic policy are Janet Yellen, as head of the central bank, the Federal Reserve, and Cecilia Rouse, a Princeton labor economist, as head of the Council of Economic Advisors. In this report WSJ looks at the economic policies of the new administration after Mr. Trump rejected globalization and international trade agreements that were not in America's interest or that hurt American workers.  Informal conversations with experts suggest WSJ says, that globalization is now suspect as a way that benefitted China and other countries including Germany, and hurt the U.S. France, Britain and other countries in Europe that were not strong exporters. This hurt their industries which were eroded by imports resulting in the three decades long destruction of communities across these countries that depended on manufacturing. It has also hurt countries like India that let their markets be dominated by Chinese imports, with a reversal of policy in 2020 with self reliant economy under "Atman Nirbhar" policy as the new goal. Mr. Trump's tactic in this trade war was to fight back to regain America's position in manufacturing with tariffs on imports. The trade deficit had to come down with China just as it had done with Japan decades earlier. This was starting to happen. One problem in bringing down the imports was the increase in the value of the dollar, as Janet Yellen has noted. The new policies will look at what the effective policy will be while keeping this goal in mind.  Both Yellen and Ms. Rouse have spent years studying labor markets and Ms. Rouse is quoted here as saying: " With open trade there are winners and losers. The losers are really losing, and we need to take care of them and take on more nuanced models of international trade as a result." Other experts from the earlier Democratic administrations such as Prof. Frankel at Harvard say that there needs to be increased focus on American workers left behind by trade, technology and unequal education, with more spending on preschool, infrastructure and health. All this suggests that there will be a continuation of U.S. policy in challenging Chinese use of globalization to advance its interests, chastening Americans on the use of the very word globalization which can mean different things to different people based on how they can gain advantage. The word may even be entirely dropped in favor of what the policies are and what they do for the American worker, American communities including small towns, and the American people, spelling each of these out every time supply chains and the global economy is mentioned. The new administration will get an opportunity to show that it too can come up with new ideas and action plan to strengthen American manufacturing and jobs. It will also have to show substantial results as people have lost patience with Democrats and Republicans on the lack of progress in rebuilding America's leadership role in the world economy, and in defending American workers and factories. Clinton, Obama and Bush all offered false promises on trade with China ignoring the damage this had done to American leadership in the world economy. Clinton with support for China's entry into the World Trade Organization, Bush with foreign wars and costly diversions and regulatory failures with banks that led to the 2009 deep recession hurting Americans, and Obama with the lack of will and interest in America's leadership role in the world as the dominant nation in manufacturing,   ...

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France's Thomas Piketty concentrated on inequality and arrives at no solutions or relief, just a historical summary that is also intuitively seen. The pandemic, climate change's impact on agriculture and livable planet, the Ukraine war have raised three questions right before our eyes that are broader and cover more and deeper ground.  The pandemic showed that the dependence on manufacturing in remote locations was a serious error. Climate change showed that agriculture the ability to feed the world itself was affected by this dependence on remote location manufacturing.  Much of this manufacturing was shipped out to China, Europe and the US lost their manufacturing base and with the communities spread out  across the US and EU lost factories and work. Manufacturing was not just shipped out to China, the process was concentrated in a short span of time leading to destruction of the environment on an unprecedented scale in China and the world  by burning lots of coal and fossil fuels. The Russian invasion of Ukraine showed the failure of this arrangement  and exposed its cracks  for Europe, US, and the free world in Asia and Latin America. The shipping out of manufacturing in this way not only destroyed communities and jobs in manufacturing in the US and the EU, but also led to such a broad accumulation of  dollar reserves in Russia and China, that enabled the invasion of neighboring countries in Europe without serious consequences to their economies, the invasion of Ukraine and the threatened takeover of Taiwan. By tackling these issues and building a supply chain concentrated more at home and in the free world better manufacturing jobs will be created in Europe and the US and in the nations of the free world that mitigate and reduce all the effects of inequality that Piketty and others talk about. The newer factories built in advanced nations of the EU and the US and set up in the free world in Asia and other countries, will be built with climate change in mind and make the shift away from coal and fossil fuels, and for conservation plus efficiency in use of energy at every step in the newly built supply chain. The results will be good for all countries in the world including the US, EU, China and India, as climate change can be aggressively tackled in this way with the latest technology and trillions of dollar of capital investments for the benefit of all. ...

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Historian David Kennedy says the present situation of partisanship after the midterms is not unusual in American history. He compares this to the election "waves" in the Gilded era of the late 19th century. He says sometimes a fractious democratic people need this kind of indecision, shuffling, avoidance and confusion, before they make up their mind to address the tough issues with which they are faced. These knds of "wave" elections do not show a weakness in American democracy. It should lead to an effort to summon up the courage to deal with these tough choices, and the creativity to find innovative solutions, and the will for taking strong action. An example he says is the pent up energy, the demand for some kind of meaningful solution to the real issues of the time about a century ago that led to the Progressive era. The result eventually was the leadership of Republican Theodore Roosevelt and of Democrat Woodrow Wilson, who brought new vitality to the American political system, and initiated the process of writing laws and building institutions that would help America cope with the complexities of the emerging industrial society....

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June 21 is designated International Yoga Day by the United Nations. India celebrates International Yoga Day with 35,000 children and adults doing Yoga in central Delhi. Narendra Modi leads the effort to promote yoga for fitness and health. Yoga research centers are being established to improve health and treat diseases such as diabetes alongside modern medicine. Yoga day practice sessions of yoga were organized throughout India, with the participation of millions of people. Yoga Day activities in Paris, France, included a outdoor yoga session below the Eiffel Tower. In his address to the UN General Assembly on September 27, 2014, Narendra Modi said about yoga: "yoga is not about exercize, but to discover the oneness with oneself, the world and nature." It is part of a 5000 year old tradition from ancient India that promotes meditation, spiritual development and health. This ancient tradition is gradually being revived and is useful in India, China, the Middle East, the U.S. and other countries that see the spread of obesity, diabetes and other health problems. It helps improve spiritual concentration of mind, and increases the body's vital energies....

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The NYT raises questions about the stress tests. It asks whether the modest economic bounce that may or may not occur, and amix of policy actions- such as the capital infusions into banks, fiscal stimulus, and other government interventions- will revive the banks? And says its not sure at all. Questioning whether the lack of stronger government action was a wise move by the Obama administration, in the same manner as three experts Hubbard, Scott, and Zingales did in an oped piece in the WSJ last week, the NYT editorial says, "what is known is that buying time, rather than forcefully intervening to restructure weak banks, can be a dicey gambit." See the link to Hubbard. Hubbard and his colleagues say that President Obama has the wrong Roosevelt in mind, its not Franklin but Theodore he should be looking to, and his admonition to talk softly but carry a big stick. It also raises the question about the regulatory reform, and the government oversight, that as Krugman noted in a piece last week, is receiving only a weak response from the Obama administration, and the dangers of going back to "business as usual."...

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Putin's personal animosity stemming perhaps from Sashkavili's tendency (see links to Sashkavili) to speak his mind and be blunt and personal conversations between the two that may have inflamed the situation and unknown to the world outside, may have played a larger role in this conflict than is fully understood. And falling into the whole backdrop of Russian retreat after the fall of the Soviet Union and hurt feelings which are described by Gorbachev (seee link to Gorbachev) this has become mixed up to such an extent that its hard to separate the two and know where one ends and the other begins. So it certainly makes any hasty judgements of Russia's intentions when Russia itself is sorting out what happened and trying to figure out whats really important hurt feelings since the 1990's, the past, or European integration, the future. Medvedev's quieter stance may play a bigger part as things settle down and Europe forges its own efforts at economic integration of Russia.

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Interview with Jim Press by Michelle Krebs of Business Week. It gives deep insights into the thinking of Toyota- its approach to the automobile business and the marketing of its cars. Being admired by the new generationof buyers, the perception of Toyota in the mind of buyers is important to Toyota. It will try to be strong in each community. The example of San Antonio is given so its roots will stretch deeper. Press tell Krebs that being part of the community is important for Toyota. See the related article by Ed Wallace, Business Week, May 25, 2006. Press says attrition is one of the reasons GM lost its high regard and perception with buyers. By that he means the older generations, two generations, that respected General Motors for its innovation and contributions, has passed away. This is replaced by younger people and a new generation which does not have the same recorded perceptions in its memory. In fact it may see just the opposite, in terms of Detroits attitude perceived as arrogant, in terms of fuel efficiency perceived as wasteful, in terms of quality perceived as not upto the higher bar set by the Japanese competition of Toyota and Honda. Toyota does not look like a pioneer in the ethanol vehicle field, so GM and Ford have a opening here they can use. Toyota will continue to set the bar higher on Quality. And this is not a company about to be complacent about its success . Press sees Toyota's success stemming partly from the failure of GM and Ford to maintain market share and only partly from its own better qualities. One of Toyota's goals is to keep increasing local content so it can show that its a truly American company to this new generation....

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The BBC's Political Editor, Laura Kuenssberg, says there are significant hurdles to reaching an agreement in talks between Conservative Party leader Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn of the Labour Party. Labour seeks some assurance on Britain remaining in the customs union. Ironically the very reason Brexiteers such as Mr. Davis and Mr. Rees-Moog oppose the Theresa May deal - the arrangement on the Irish backstop a way for keeping the borders open between the two Irelands - is the reason Labour could find a way to support an agreement with Theresa May. For the Brexiteers this is unacceptable because it would keep Britain indefinitely in the EU.  There are two other obstacles. Theresa May has promised to resign after negotiating a compromise with Labour Party. Would her successor including possibly a Brexiteer such as Mr. Boris Johnson, support the agreed to deal with Labour. This is highly unlikely. Another obstacle is that a majority of Labour party members of parliament favor a second referendum, a ratificatory referendum, or a confirmatory referendum whatever you call it.  A related article today on this issue in BBC News by Katya Adler describes the person on the other side, the person who heads Germany's ruling CDU Party, and who is likely the next chancellor. This is AKK, Anne-Margaret Kampbrauer. She wrote an article in The Times about a month earlier with other German leaders saying she would love to see Britain change her mind and stay in the EU. She is in favor of a second referendum. Parts of the Conservative Party also support a second referendum- those Conservative MP's who are boxed in between the extreme Brexiteers who care for nothing except their vision of Britain outside the EU as a Franco-German arrangement, and the MP's who left the Conservative Party or now support a second referendum.  Kuenssberg says that necessity is the mother of invention and something could come out of the talks between May and Corbyn- but the obstacles she mentions may not be overcome leading to a new popular vote as the best option. ...

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Matthew Kaminski gives his assessment of Angela Merkel's years in office. He cites a former German chancellor Helmut Schmidt's words: "People who have a vision should go see a doctor." She is no Konrad Adenauer or even Helmut Kohl. A scientist by training she is dispassionate, intelligent, diligent and takes the time to understand the details of the financial situation from her advisors, then sorting out the situation in her own mind. She gets less credit for bold action than she deserves because of her down to earth manner.She gave banks no option as bondholders to share losses in late night meetings at EU headquarters, called the president of Italy and secured a change in government after Berlusconi lost the confidence of the EU. In the current impasses between the Bundesbank and the ECB's Draghi over sovereign bond purchases with Jens Weidmann, Germany's representative at the ECB, supporting Mario Draghi's position, she has navigated the fine line between the German public's reluctance to take on the debts of its neighbors in the eurozone and the need for lowering the borrowing costs of Italy and Spain to save the euro. After the visionaries from Adenauer to Monet, todays eurozone leaders are focussed more on the nuts and bolts of making this idea of Europe work, requiring the skills and ability to learn and grow that she has demonstrated....

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What are the systemic effects of one of the automakers going out of business? It affects the whole supplier base. This is the case in the event of a liquidation of assets, closing Delphi and so on. This was mentioned by Wagoner as the alternative and not prepackaged bankruptcy with DIP set aside loan for warranty financing which some experts are advocating in combination with a government loan with strings attached including a change in management. Some of the strings are covered in a New York Times editorial reflecting public opinion on the democratic side on this issue, and that includes removal of current management of Detroit auto companies, and fuel efficiency targets raised higher than legislation passed recently under heavy lobbying pressure from these automakers. Contraction of automakers and job contraction should be differentiated from liquidation of assets. The contraction of automaker jobs not just at the Detroit companies but also at Japanese plants in the US is going to happen even with a government loan to Detroit as Honda is also reducing its workforce and this will happen at Toyota also. The carefully planned bankruptcy with carefully and fully addressed warranty and other issues could be made to work along with sufficient government loan money in the $50-$70 billion range in return for equity and other conditions, and its not clear why the management of the Detroit auto companies see it as impossible and not just difficult, when they are already facing considerable difficulties in this market and with public opinion. Rampell talks about how jobs lost are not recoverable, and this is fairly obvious considering that the Japanese and the Germans are unlikely to relocate in the same areas that Detroit has located its plants , and prefer to go and build green plants to specification, and hire very carefully so that workers with the Toyota or Honda frame of mind are hired to work there. This can change depending on individual circumstances but is what they generally prefer to do. Also its important to bear in mind that forecasts that are being used of 13-14 million vehicle market in 2009 are just guesses, it could turn out that the sales drop to something like 10 -12 million vehicles, in which case there will be contraction of jobs on a large scale even at the Japanese and Korean and German plants which there is even now but on a smaller scale. ...

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Leakage of state funds is serious. Just think how many hospitals and schools, how many solar panel farms or wind farms can be built with $4.5 billion that is reported as the money laundered in the 1MDB leakage of state infrastructure funds? Here it is reported that Goldman Sachs settles for its involvement in the 1MDB with $2.5 billion in cash and guarantee recovery of $1.4 billion in proceeds from assets lost by the Malaysia state infrastructure fund. This is what the WSJ says on July 24, 2020, Ben Otto and Chester Tay- "Goldman Sachs was the main banker for the Malaysian fund 1 Malaysia Development Bhd. or 1MDB. The bank raised billions of dolars for the fund which was allegedly stolen by people working for the fund, government officials and two senior Goldman bankers." It also says Goldman raised $6.5 billion for the 1MDB through bond sales in 2012 and 2013, much of which was stolen by a Malaysian government advisor. And that Goldman received $600 million in fees which would be about 10%. Many of the countries in Asia and Africa have a colonial past in which little or no investment was made for centuries in heath, education and infrastructure. This makes it all the more appalling and heartbreaking. Goldman bankers were also involved in advising China during the hyper growth years which are leading today to little or no growth and concentration in property sector, with appalling devastation of the climate in China over a compressed period of 10-15 years 1995-2010,  leading to fires, floods, drought in China and worldwide, including in Africa and Asia. Was this good advice or self-serving for investment banks as this was accompanied by shift of manufacturing to China leading to decay of communities throughout America and and now a reversal after the pandemic all compressed so as to wreak havoc first one way and then the other way leading to a world more prone to conflict and war. Was this good advice or a cautionary tale for both America, for African and Asian countries and for China most of all a country that has a colonial past and treated with respect by Americans. Two Americans come to mind  Theodore Roosevelt who helped establish the now famous Tsinghua University in Beijing in 1911, and Joe Stilwell who led the Allied operations in China against the Japanese. Were Roosevelt, Stilwell sincere friends of China and Asian countries or the Goldman bankers is a question that just comes up. ...

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The inventor of the white LED bulb is the son of a Japanese father and an American mother. He invented the LED bulb by doing research in a small company which required courage to get the research funded for IGaN. Only a few researchers were following this route less than 1%, Nakamura had the confidence in himself, believed in himself to take this route that led to the white LED bulb. The more he was turned down the angrier he became and had it approved by the founder of the company. In 1992 he made the first white LED bulb. Why is this important. It shows what we can do when we pursue what our mind tells us and what comes from inside. Nakamura had to work very hard to do this. In a small company he says he had to do everything himself. So thats it the LED bulb. Amazing and what an achievement for climate change action. California uses 35% of its electricity for lighting alone. White LED cuts this in half. ...

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An example of the kind of information spread even in BBC and American media about US inability to make the most advanced chips because TSMC founders have decades of experience. In fact TSMC founder Morris Chang acquired his experience in chips in the US. The decades of TSMC experience are merely since the late1990's. The US was the only country making these chips when China was mostly an agricultural economy in the 1990's. It is only because of hidden subsidies and bad economic theory, that US let the chip technology be outshored. As soon as the people of America make the decision, bad economic theory will be discarded, and US will support its own chip manufacturing under bipartisan support in Congress and the White House, with the full support and funding of the American government.  The US can get things done once it makes up it's mind as the whole Nation. Advanced chips will happen very quickly in the US with the process already under way and supported by the whole Nation. People forget that bigger than chips, bigger than technologies of today, the Industrial Revolution of the 20th century began under Frances Perkins and Franklin Roosevelt in New York during FDR's term as Governor as New York State. It was at that time that New York state  was setup as the model of industry and labor, with new institutions and industrial landscape engineered by FDR and Perkins. This was transferred to 50 states during the 1930-1950 period- this is the industrial structure and economic structure that brought the Second Industrial Revolution in the 20th century to the world. Taiwan did not exist till 1950's emerging from Japanese rule, China from Japanese occupation till 1945, not emerging till 1990. ...

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Krugman on taxes, Simpson Bowles and "low rates." He describes the U.S. under Dwight Eisenhower, a Republican president and war hero. A period which he describes in which unions had bargaining power, a third of workers were union members, and in contrast to to the 1920 business executives lived modestly and paid higher taxes. And yet the U.S. registered high rates of growth. There are several aspects to this period in contrast to the present that also need to be kept in mind. The post war booming economy after two decades of slow growth and war. Much of the present infrastructure in the U.S. was built during this period including the interstate highway system started under Eisenhower. The workers of developing countries of China, India and other parts of the world were not a part of the global labor force till the 1990's, with technology and transportation making global manufacturing a reality. The major factor in lowering wages and creating lower levels of unionized workers in the automobile as in other industries is the competition from lower wage labor in China and other Asian countries, and the presence of non unionized plants in the U.S. The choices made by economic decisionmakers of both parties in the last two decades, say experts including Fed chairman Bernanke, created a huge inflow of capital from Asia that led to housing and other bubbles, creating economic crises such as the one in 2008 and aggravating economic inequality. ...

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ECB President Mario Draghi stated in his first speech to bankers and policy makers in Frankfurt that governments in Italy, Spain and other eurozone countries need to take stronger action and stop delaying. He said: "Where is the implementation of these long-standing decisions. We should not be waiting any longer." Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank stated Germany's view: "The economic costs of any form of monetary financing of public debts and deficits outweigh its benefits so clearly that it will not help to stabilize the current situation." The ECB continues to maintain limited purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds, leading to a small easing of bond yields, but has ruled out large scale purchases. ECB officials fear that taking the heat off politicians in Italy and other eurozone countries through large scale bond purchases will only lead to a lack of action on irresponsible fiscal policies. Meanwhile the debate in Germany continues with the mass circulation tabloid Bild saying calls for the ECB to act were "hysteria." The conservative leaning newspaper Die Welt says Merkel could still change her mind. Die Welt pointed out that Germans remember the hyperinflation of the 1920's as what can result from printing money to buy government issued bonds, but forget the period in the early 1930's under Chancellor Heinrich Bruning, another deeply troubling period, when deep austerity led to mass unemployment and a prolonged depression....

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All the extreme rhetoric on how Project 2025 is going to be adopted under a DJT administration has led to unease that there will be deterioration in the government and society.  Yet it simply may not work that way.   A second objective look at Project 2025 and how it's value to Republicans will be carefully evaluated piece by piece by DJT is needed. Keeping in mind 2026 House and Senate elections, winning broad support for the traditional Republican conservative line of thinking, and maintaining the support of all Republicans in the business, government, media and other sectors.  1. Replacing federal employees with party loyalists. This happens at the top of every agency of the government for every government in the US and Europe after an election for the last century. At today's unemployment level of 4 percent, adult males actually 3.9% and adult females 3.6%, and considering the higher salaries paid in the private sector, the tenuous nature of joining as a party loyalist as the national mood can shift at any time and things change again in 2027; where was the federal government going to find employees to be replaced at mid and lower levels? There is also the situation seen in 1928 when a Republican Hoover victory made Democrat NY Governor Al Smith compel a reluctant Franklin Roosevelt, who was just recovering from polio, to run for NY Governor. By 1931 over 3 years Franklin Roosevelt and Columbia University's Frances Perkins tested programs to stabilize employment in the US, introduce unemployment insurance as a new concept, and a 40 hour week also new, in the entire northeastern + midwestern states, all governors working together. By 1931 in just 3 years Franklin Roosevelt was on the clear path to sweeping victory in 1932 with a tested program to stabilize employment. 2.  The No. 1 goal is to restore the traditional family. It is clear in 2024 that the vast majority of Americans, whites, women as well as men, of all age groups, whites as well as Latinos and Asians, blacks, see that things like transgender "have somehow gone too far." 3. Cultural Literacy is needed for any nation to long survive. This is not even on any platform. Yet knowledge about America's history of settlement of the continent -correcting for treatment of American Indians, blacks, Chinese, Japanese without pointless race controversies- is being rapidly lost, and with it an understanding of America's civic institutions and Constitution, its founders and presidents, and evolution of the nation over the 20th century with the Industrial Revolution. The very terminology that has defined public knowledge about these United States is fast disappearing. It is a cause for unease in the minds of people in rural and urban, conservative and other parts of the political spectrum alike of what will happen to America as this is lost. 4. On immigration  a consensus was reached by president Biden that migrant flow was mishandled and the Lankford legislation offered by Republican leaders accepted by both parties to stop the flow. During his first term president Eisenhower conducted a program of returning illegal migrants to their home countries, Germany is doing this now and the UK's Labor party has made it No. 1 priority to stop migrant smuggling. 5. An effort to increase oil and gas production. This will help bring down the cost of living by reducing energy costs in the US and also helping Europe to do the same. Biden had already accepted the idea of the temporary need to do this to ease cost of living burden on the people of this Nation. The economic cost of wind and solar, are ultimate drivers for expanding renewable energy as major form of climate change action. In the first term of DJT 2016-2020 the lower cost of natural gas made it economical to switch from oil to gas. In the Biden term 2020-2024 all the effort to increase EV's on the road ran into the problem of lack of charging stations. It is possible that spread of charging stations could reverse this in the second term of DJT. It is the private sector and also the local governments that play a big part, climate change action will continue, and new R&D breakthroughs will happen to jump start it again.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities in the UK in its report published on March 29, 2021, says Britain has become a more open society and that racial inequalities in education and employment have narrowed. Bangladeshi, Indian and African backgrounds children are performing better across eight GCSE's using scores on average, than white British children, an amazing story. It says "this should be regarded as a model for white majority countries."  Much of this could be the result of strong families, ethic of hard work, help from the idea that hardship brings virtue, and single minded determination of families and children to excel in studies, showing that obstacles such as language and other economic barriers can not only be overcome but actually be a motivational influence. This should translate into more success in the workplace. The report says this is happening in the workplace with diversity in the professions of medicine, law and teaching, and shrinking pay gap with white population. Criticism persists and is true for the top of the public and private sectors, the report says. Yet it should be uppermost in mind that in terms of number of people benefitted it is important- that the process be strong at the ground level so that the talented individual can then move to the higher ranks. To do this the report says British employers should go for more "evidence-based alternatives" than let "unconscious bias training" prevail without quite realizing that this is happening in the absence of initiative. Much of what happens in Britain is also true for the US and other places with British based educational systems such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. In South Asia there are disadvantaged minorities because of old caste based inequalities and bias. There the problem also has its perverse forms in which politically motivated moves to assign quotas are made before the emphasis on education and investment in education for disadvantaged minorities. This is leading to a general decline in education in government or public schools and reliance on private sector schools to provide quality education. A process seen in Latin American countries such as Mexico and Brazil that also involves public sector unions and their control of who gets hired and how. The result is that huge problems not entirely visible like an iceberg that cripples ships or economies is happening in these countries, and the focus is almost entirely on the disparities in British schools where progress is actually being made with results, intentions backed by will to accomplish. ...