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The US economy is growing at a much faster pace than Europe or China in the last quarter of 2021- at 7% annualized growth in the fourth quarter up from 2% in the third quarter, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. This compares to 2% in eurozone and 4% in China. Major US ports such as Los Angeles are processing 20% more container volume in 2021 than in 2019, while Rotterdam and Hamburg are almost flat compared to 2019 level. Consumption of durable goods has jumped 45% above 2018 levels in the US, only 2% in eurozone, according to ECB data. The factory gate prices in China are far outpacing the consumer prices in China, suggesting weak domestic demand and strong foreign demand. Lars Jensen, head of network at container ship company A.P. Moller-Maersk says the global supply bottlenecks were started by this surge in US demand with more ships headed for the US taking ships away from other places. The US economy will grow at 6% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, with wages growing 4% a year above the pre-pandemic trend rate, compared with 1% in eurozone, according to Bank for International Settlements. This is pushing inflation up in other countries by pushing up the value of the dollar. In Mexico hitting 7.4% and the central bank raising interest rates 0.5% point to 5.5%. In Russia inflation up to 8.4% and central bank raising interest rates by 1percentage point to 8.5%. The equipment investment in the US is up by 13% this year according to JP Morgan Chase, only 3.6% in eurozone, 0.1% in Japan. All this is creating a large gap between the US and Europe, US and China in economic growth and demand growth, and in income growth. ...

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Krugman points to the low productivity improvement in the U.S. since 2005, and looks at the nature of tech changes since 2005 with products from Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and other companies targeted more at consumers than at the core industrial economy. Listening to my favorite music or using smartphones does not add to productivity in the same way that changes in an earlier period improved productivity. Low productivity improvement hurts workers in the U.S., Britain and in the eurozone, as this is holding back growth in wages. Figures actually show a further deceleration in productivity since 2010 to a mere 0.3% annual growth in the U.S., from 1.3% since 2005, and 2.9% for the period from 1995 to 2005.

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A local government vehicle in China, Sixth Division of XPCC fails to make a bond payment in August 2018. This is the first such instance of failure to make a bond payment for a local government vehicle in 2018. Economists estimate China's total debt at 242% of GDP in 2017, and government efforts to tighten liquidity and reduce support for overextended local government investment vehicles.

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The manufacturing purchasers index for the eruozone was 45.1, remaining at the same level as May, a three year low, according to survey firm Markit. The figures are based on a survey of purchasing executives. Index figures below 50 indicate contraction in the manufacturing sector. Germany was at a PMI of 45, Spain at 41.1. The PMI reports indicate a contraction of 1% at an annualized rate for the eurozone economies in the 2nd quarter of 2012.

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The household debt to income ratio is 1.62 in Britain compared to 1.42 in the USA and 1.09 in Germany. Britain has a record 1.4 trillion pounds of debtor about $2.8 trillion more than the country's gross domestic product. Ther is a culture of debt financed spending in Britain which older generations are not familiar with. Even the USA which has seen a debt financed spending spree is behind Britain where the spending culture is really prevalent with borrowing at its height to support consumption. Personal debt in the USA including mortgage debt is $13.8 trillion slightly less than the $14 trillion GDP. A decade long housing boom and strong economic growth has created consumer confidence and a virtuous cycle of investment in infrastructure, higher consumption, low unemployment and better incomes and growth. Now this virtuous cycle may be coming to a close. Interestingly Germans were much more reluctant to be the free spenders than the British. The average Briton has 2.8 credit or debit cards more than the other countries in Europe. And the home equity and borrowing on home equity with rising home prices, easy credit card debt, and low interest rates all have created a false sense of security which may not last long with rising rates and declining home values, and tighter credit conditions....

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German unemployment is falling since 2005 when it peaked at 5 million unemployed. Its down by 711,000 in 2007. The unemployment rate is now down to 8.4% and should continue falling. Causes are several trends, a strong external economy means higher exports to Asia, Russia and the Middle East. And demographics with aging population and fewer working age people means jobs created fill the ranks of fewer people available to work. But this trend may be slowed by a further strengthening of the euro, a global slowdown, or a minimum wage that is on the high side 7-8 euros instead of 5-6 euros.

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Japanese prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, of the Democratic Party of Japan, is pressing forward with a plan to increase Japan's 5% consumption tax to 10% by 2015. Noda told reporters in Tokyo: "There is no waiting in responding to this question" of how to strengthen the social security system. Adding that Japan is "faced with an aging society and a declining birthrate unprecedented in the history of humankind and we cannot sidestep the challenge." In theory the Liberal Democratic party supports this, but in reality the LDP sees a chance to force a new election. Japan has a lower consumption tax rate compared to other OECD countries. It was last increased in 1997. Polls show both parties are deeply unpopular- the LDP has 17% support from voters, the DPJ has 16%, and over 50% support no party. An increase in the consumption tax comes with its own risks for the Japanese economy, as Japanese exporters have been hit hard by the yen's rapid rise in the last year. At 76-77 yen to the dollar Japanese automakers find making compact cars in Japan unprofitable. A chip maker Elpida recently filed for bankruptcy, with its CEO saying he never imagined the yen at this level. Another difficulty maybe the size of the increase in the consumption tax, effectively doubling it at a time when European markets for Japanese exports are showing a marked slowdown....

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Paul Krugman points out that the Bush tax cuts if continued in the US for all income levels will cost $680 billion over the next decade. This estimate is from the Tax Policy Center.

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The poor air quality in Beijing and other Chinese cities especially for children is at a point where many middle class Chinese want to emigrate. This is making Beijing, Shanghai and other cities less desirable for foreign nationals.

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Sales of autos once at 14 to 24% increase year after year was down to essentially flat in the latter part of the year with full year growth at about 6.7% over 2007. And 2009 could be flat or see declines in sales. Consumers are feeling the effects f drop in the stock market and drop in housing prices as well as a slowing economy.

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This report in WSJ says 4 months before becoming China's president in 2012 Xi Jinping issued a Communist party directive as head of the party committee overseeing the former British colony. The directive cautioned officials about a growing separatist sentiment in Hong Kong. It said "we must dare to struggle and be good at fighting," a retired official describes as Xi's approach. Another facet of Xi's views on Hong Kong are that his father as a party leader for the southern province of Guangdong in 1978 to 1980 near Hong Kong was the first after the Cultural Revolution to set up ties between the mainland and the British colony of Hong Kong. China was experimenting with a different model for the economy and Xi's father set up the early links with Hong Kong so that the flow of economic refugees from mainland China to Hong Kong could be reduced and the gap in living standards could be narrowed. He set up the first "Special Economic Zone" and met delegations to start the Sino-British talks on Hong Kong's future. Xi Jinping grew up in the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution. His father Xi Zhongzun, was jailed in 1962 in internal party struggles, and his family was persecuted during the Cultural Revolution that started in 1966. The Cultural Revolution that went on till 1976 ironically was an attempt to stamp out possible capitalist or imperialist influences from the colonial period and the opium wars with Britain. He was later rehabilitated under premier Deng. During the turmoil Xi with some difficulty was admitted to University after spending some years in the countryside. His father remained loyal to the ideals of the Chinese Revolution even though he had suffered from the internal party struggles, an experience remains a strong memory for Xi Jinping. It is as if the period is seen as a period of experimentation and failure for the party not for its ideals of China rising from the colonial period after its failure to engage with the world before the colonial period leading to backwardness. The unity of the country had to be maintained bringing Hong Kong and possibly Taiwan together with the mainland. Rejuvenation was happening and stability was essential for Chia to grow and emerge into the "China Dream" a word coined by Xi for its emergence in the community of nations as an equal to western powers after the colonial period of oppression and cultural backwardness. In this way he is different than other leaders before him who followed premier Deng who started the experimentation with markets and economic structures. The leader preceding him was party secretary in Tibet with a prime minister who was an engineer working on public projects, in sharp contrast to Xi who had the the sense of authority from seeing different phases of Communist party experimentation in his early years. The Bo Xi Lai incident during the transition before 2012 also influenced Xi. This was an attempt similar possibly to the attempt by Lin Piao under Mao to subvert Communist Party leadership into a new direction bringing China under Soviet influence after the break by Mao. Bo Xi Lai, a party secretary for an interior less developed region Chongqing, who rose from being Mayor of Dalien to governor of Liaoning province. Bo Xi Lai attempted to subvert the process operating since the Cultural Revolution of leadership by consensus within the party ensuring stability and continuity needed for development and pushing the trauma of the Cultural Revolution out of memory. He did this by seeking high party office for his own ambitions not for the party and China's interests that guided leaders after the Cultural Revolution. This incident and the period of two decades of growth of market economy had led to growing corruption and Xi was convinced that "corruption would doom the Communist Party and the State" and the resulting instability was bad for China. During this period in 2012 Xi Jinping said that it was necessary to remove "tigers and flies" who could endanger the party's ideals and the future growth and stability of the country.  About 10,000 party officials were removed for corruption, and the rule of Politburo Standing Committee immunity (PSC) of the party operating after the Cultural Revolution was removed. The PSC is the body that at the top of the organization structure that runs China. On Hong Kong Xi now believes that the problem is best tackled by the Hong Kong government not by intervening from Beijing. There is increasing perception in Beijing and Hong Kong that the local government, business leaders have messed things up, by getting into the habit of telling Beijing planners what they wanted to hear, and failing to communicate with the 7 million people of Hong Kong. These leaders are also in a bind because Xi believes that Beijing exercized "overall governance authority" over Hong Kong. A 2014 government white paper warns against "confused or lopsided perceptions" of Hong Kong's status, saying that its partial autonomy comes "solely from the authorization of the central leadership."     ...

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Election expert Karl Rove from the Republican Party goes over the math for the nomination for upcoming Republican primaries in New York, followed by primaries in Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania. He says the anti-Trump movement would still be in the lead at the end of these primaries. His figures are that Trump stands at 743 delegates on April 7, 2016, citing the Associated Press, and the non-Trump delegates at 897, ahead by 154 delegates. In New York primary of April 19 only 14 of the state's 95 delegates go to the winner, the rest are given three for each of 27 congressional districts. two to the winner and one for the second place finisher as long as the winner is less than 50% and the second place candidate has 20%. Delaware has 16 winner take all delegates, Connecticut and Maryland have 28 and 38 winner take all by congressional district, Rhode Island 19 proportionally. Interestingly Pennsylvania is cited by Rove as having only 14 statewide winner take all delegates, with 54 officially unbound congressional district delegates, contrary to popular impression that it is winner take all state wide. The elections in South and North Dakota, and Nebraska, give Cruz some of the delegate offset to control the gap in delegates between him and Trump created in the northeastern states. A factor in the race is also the change in the Cruz campaign made for Wisconsin where Cruz was able to win by 14 percentage points by expanding his message to Jobs, Opportunity and Growth from the social conservatism message that did not counter the Trump message to conservative and working class voters on the economy and trade. Another factor is women's vote trending away from Trump. ...

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Even China has not campaigned the way Canada, Mexico and British, American media have against DJT Tariffs because China knows it is basically about getting an even playing field when it is the only country with $1 trillion in trade in its favor in 2024, 12 times the Japanese high of $82 billion trade surplus in 2007. But why should China campaign when the American and British, German media are going to do the job for China? A simple quiz to K-12 would ask school children when is the last time a country has a $1 trillion trade surplus? Answer: Never. Greg Ip has written a few years back that the devastation of China outshoring of American factories and jobs was unlike the 1980's Japan trade invasion because of first China's size, second by the speed with which it happened at 10-14% Chinese GDP growth. There is a third Japan was an ally needing US for security and backed down, China's case is different it is challenging the US for control of the world economy and will fight this one over the long haul. Greg Ip of WSJ on the 53 countries asking to negotiate US Liberation Day April 2, 2025 Tariffs. These countries include Allies of the US in full support asking to negotiate Israel, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, India Allies of the US in partial support asking to negotiate Britain Allies of the US not in full support asking to negotiate Germany, France Allies of the US in the past campaigning against the US, asking to negotiate Canada, Mexico Not Allies of the US, not in full support, not campaigning against the US China A look at his list tells one only one thing, mostly all trading partners except for the $146 billion exports of the US which represents exports to China are the exports that are at risk if things don't work out on tariffs. This is what the media today WSJ added this last week to the NYT, Wash. Post and the BBC, Guardian of UK, German media will not tell the reader.  The DJT Tariffs and Tariff negotiations are Lighthizer Tariff negotiations which won the fight with Japan in the 1980's over unfair trade and gaining a level playing field. Lighthizer as Deputy US Trade Representative conducted the tough negotiations with Japan. He was USTR in 2016-2020 and his Deputy Jamieson is now USTR in 2025       ...

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Krugman says the kind of spending on helping the US economy never happened. That is relative to the size of the US economy, not much happened uder the Obama administration. As evidence, he cites the figures that total government payrolls have declined by 350,000 since January 2009. And he says government purchases of goods and services increased only by 3% in the last 2 years.