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Chancellor points out that economists from Irving Fisher in 1929 to Ben Bernanke in the mid-1990's have often played the role of academic shills during each successive period of "This Time its Different, " claiming that there was some new event, technology, or innovation, that justified higher valuations of assets and higher institutional debt levels. He quotes Walter Bagehot who says about merchants and bankers of his day-" they fancy the prosperity they see will last always, that it is only the beginning of a greater prosperity." The significance of the book is that it suggests an hypothesis that is quite different from the general idea in 2011 that there won't be a protracted period of slow or marginal growth after a bubble of this nature. Because the bubble is also in other countries, in countries of the euro-zone, China, Turkey, Brazil, and other countries, the situation takes a much longer time to heal.

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The U.S. Agriculture Department cuts its estimate of corn crop yield per acre in the U.S. by 15.5%, as a result of the severe drought in 2012. Agriculture Secretary Vilsack, says the situation for farmers is better this time than during the last drought in 1988. Now 85% of farmers have crop insurance compared to 25% in 1988. The Agriculture Department estimate is for a 3-4% increase in prices in 2013. Capital Economics says the impact on GDP in the U.S. will be about 0.1%. Because 40% of the corn crop goes into ethanol production there is renewed debate about the 2005/2007 Renewable Fuel Standard, which requires 13.2 billion gallons of corn based biofuel be made in 2012. Worldwide the bad weather conditions in Brazil, India and Russia are worsening the outlook for food supplies. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization says global food prices increased by 6% in July 2012, with corn prices up 23%.

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The young people in Venezuela increasingly question continued support for president Chavez. About 7.5 million Venezuelans ages 18-30 make up 40% of the electorate. Chavez has won elections since 1998, and has setup a network of youth support. Yet there is now voter fatigue after Chavez's 14 years in power, and this election is being vigorously contested by opposition leader, Henrique Capriles. Voters are increasingly looking for an alternative, and an economy that creates jobs and new opportunities beyond the social welfare state supported by oil earnings offered by Chavez, especially the 42% of the working population in the informal sector. One voter puts it succintly saying what Chavez has to give has already been given, and Venezuela's future lies in a different direction. A new direction would better integrate Venezuela with the global economy bringing in new technology and foreign investment. In addition it would include efforts to enlarge the middle class and improve conditions for the working class, as Brazil has done....

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P&G's plans for additional 4000 job cuts after the 1600 already planned for the 2012 fiscal year. This move and other actions including changes to its advertising budget are expected to generate cost savings of $10 billion by 2016. The nonmanufacturing workforce will be reduced by 10% by 2013 for annual savings of $800 millon by fiscal year 2014. $1 billion in savings comes from moving to digital and other forms of advertising. $6 billion in savings would be generated from less costly packaging materials and supply chain efficiency improvements. By using concentrated forms of detergent products less packaging will be needed. Anaysts say P&G's cost structure compares poorly with competitors- with 31.5% of revenue going to selling, general and administrative expenses, compared to 28.1% for household product companies. At the same time as these cuts are made, P&G plans to add 20 new plants in Brazil, China, S. Africa and Poland.

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HSBC CEO, Stuart Gulliver, says the bank will move away from its emphasis on retail banking. After completing a stategic review of the bank's businesses Gulliver says the global retail banking business has grown haphazardly, with HSBC trying "to be all things to all people in all markets." There are about 39 countries where the retail operations are smaller and less efficient than competitors. HSBC has 6000 plus retail outlets worldwide. And Gulliver says outside of the U.K. and Hong Kong retail has not added substantially to the bank's returns. This means capital will be allocated in a more disciplined way going forward.HSBC will pull back from retail operations in Russia and focus on key markets- Germany, Turkey, Brazil and Singapore. Cost cuts of $2.5 to $3.5 billion are planned by 2013. Costs went up after management was preoccupied with the disastrous acquisition of Household Finance in the U.S. Focus will be on growing business such as the Global Banking and Markets Business which Gulliver headed previously. ...

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Use of oil for transportation has increased from 30% ten years ago to nearly 50% in 2013, according to Sanford Bernstein, as more cars are added to China's roads. This makes it less likely that a slowdown in China's growth will affect demand for oil. Sales of passenger cars increased by 11% in January and February 2014. A study at France's central bank by Gauvin and Rebillard shows only a much smaller effect on oil prices from a hard landing of the Chinese economy, compared to the effect on metal prices. Passenger cars now make up two out of three vehicles on Chinese roads, according to LMC Automotive. The growth in cars is likely to continue, not just in China, but in other emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Mexico and Russia. Metal consumption is different, as it comes mostly from housing, infrastructure and factories which are the most affected parts of the economy in China.

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Pemex's new CEO, Emilio Lozoya, and his plans for improving the oil company's operations. He sees the opportunity to create efficiency and savings for Pemex as large because of the way the company has been run upto now. In this interview by Jose De Cordoba and Laurence Iliff, the new CEO cites as one example that only one airport in Mexico receives jet fuel by pipeline, the airport of Mexico City, the rest receive it by trucks. Lozoya is the son of a former energy minister. He is 38, has a Masters degree in economic development from Harvard and worked as an investment banker in New York. Lozoya says he will draw from the experience of other countries, including Brazil and Colombia which have sharply increased oil production after making their oil companies more competitive and transparent. In this interview he announced plans to setup a separate company to explore and produce shale gas and deep water oil in the U.S.

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The changes at Sony Pictures outlined in an interview with CEO, Michael Lynton. Sony Pictures will look for savings of $350 million. Motion Pictures showed declining revenues and revenue from TV shows increased in 2013. Sony Pictures will expand its TV shows business. Part of the expansion will be through buying and starting up new television channels in the growing markets of India and Brazil. In this interview Lynton points to the risks in seeing franchises in big budget movies before they become franchises and before the first movie in the series is successful. Smaller budget movies such as "The Conjuring," "We're the Millers," have been profitable for Sony Pictures, so he sees the tendency to focus on franchises alone as risky. Sony pioneered in producing for cable but did not see this as being a large revenue generator five years earlier. What changed Lynton says, is the increase in subscription video-on-demand services and growth in Netflix reaching new buyers.

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GM shares dropped by 31% October 8, 2008 to a postwar low. And Jeff Schuster head of auto forecasting at JD Power says the global market in 2009 may experience an outright collapse. The slowdown will extend to Europe, China, india and Brazil. Previously JD Power estimated sales at 14 million for 2009 now it thinks it will be more like 13.2 million in 2009 and this may come up for revision as the economic downturn deepens with higher unemployment, loss in savings, and collapsing consumption. With access to financing drying up, and sales collapsing GM is rnning low on funds to run day to day operations and is expected to be acutely short by the end of 2009. Ford faces a similar situation. One forecast by Citigroup global markets in the link in Detroit News October 9 points to only abot $1 billion remaining by the end of 2009 and even with asset sales generating some $5 billion being thin ice for GM.

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The global financial crisis is expected to reshape the direction of globalization. Western finance will be re-regulated. Second as concerns about food security take prominence in countries like India and China inflation and how it affects food prices will result in governments taking an active role in this area. Thirs America will lose economic clout and intellectual authority. Emerging economies like Inida, China, Brazil and Russia and other countries are having a large influence on the direction of global trade now this will also extend to global finance. But even after the re-regulation of finance in western countries and changes also in emerging countries that are seen as necessary in the light of the global crisis, the global economy will still find the model of markets if carefully done and respect for individual initiative with a proper role of government but limited role, he attractive model to follow. Easterly comments on this for developing countries. See the link.

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This is important piece becasue it identifies what Mullally sees as the biggest opportunity with Ford- he identifies it as" the single biggest opportunity." Surely because Ford really has never really tapped on all that this means- does it make any difference in a global market whether some part or feature is invented or developed in Brazil, India, England or the USA? Basic parts of an automobile remain the same. All markets want the latest technology and features, it is a global market and you better operate as one to get maximum impact of an engineer in India, Brazil, Russia, UK, Germany or the USA, they all develop the best parts, and the best technology of an automobile and it is marketed in many countries. Example Opel Astra under the Saturn name in the USA, what about the Mondeo for goodness sake in the US not just in Europe, and why a better Focus for the European market and not the same Focus for the US market in quality and technology?

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Corruption allegations released in O Globo newspaper about president Temer and company JBS paying amounts into offshore accounts.

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Mead points out that the world with an effective U.S. leadership based on democracy and the values we cherish is needed now more than ever, after the failures of the Bush and Obama administrations to provide the kind of balanced leadership all Americans can stand behind. A world without an effective and enlightened leadership from the U.S, is one in which the world could fall apart in regional rivalry, one in which the hundreds of millions of people in the poorer parts of India, China, Russia, Brazil, and other developing countries of the world, will have less opportunity to meet their aspirations for a better life. This is because a focus on development requires less regional rivalry and because serious missteps can reverse in a few years decades of economic progress as shown in the 2008 global financial crisis. More so because we live in an increasingly interdependent global economy. It is also the kind of world where suppression of freedoms and suppression of the opposition as in China and Russia, provides a wrong kind of message, a world in which we or our children would not want to live in. Russia, India and China, are too driven by rivalry and lack the deep experience to go it alone, multipolar is more likely to end up being multipolar rivalry leading to a race to the bottom, which would be bad for all, especially for the poor in Asia and the developing world. The 2008 crisis showed what some serious economic mistakes could do to employment and incomes in the world with output dropping by a third in most places. Political missteps could lead to a slippery slope of this magnitude but more difficult to correct. Greater participation in the political process and more enlightened leadership is needed in all countries to allow many voices and greater interaction across boundaries, focussing on the dangers of such multipolar rivalries. The world of the G-7 is already moving to the G-20 where many voices are heard and serious discussion of differences takes place, but participatory is different from multipolar....

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The Russian position for a ceasefire in Ukraine and peace talks is set forth by president Putin. "Our principled position is that state of Ukraine must be neutral, non aligned and free of nuclear weapons." Putin wants Ukraine to give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, Russian speaking regions in the east of Ukraine. Capitals of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and some of the territory is controlled by Ukraine today. It means that Russia could accept a ceasefire under the present lines of control. It also means Ukraine would not be part of NATO, though it could be part of the European Union, as a peace settlement. All western sanctions on Russia would have to be lifted. Throughout the decade of this war Russia has maintained close connections to the Russian speaking eastern part of Ukraine with historically close ties to Russia and as Ukraine public opinion shifted to the EU Russia began its efforts to bring these regions under its control even when German-Russian relations were better during Merkel years. Russia has the support of China and Brazil in its position. At some point if a settlement is reached one possibility is that the line of actual control or LAC would be put in place. It happened in the Korean War, when the demilitarized zone was setup and in other conflicts on the Indian border with China and Pakistan, in Cyprus between Greece and Turkey. For it to happen Russia will have to dispel fears in the EU and the US that Russia will continue the conflict at some later stage till all its objectives are achieved. This requires removing the perception that Putin is set on achieving all his objectives to reopen the war at some later stage. Mr. Putin hinted at this by saying "today we are making a concrete real peace proposal," and adding that Russia was not ''talking about freezing the conflict, but its final resolution." In this situation it is the western doubt about Putin's intentions that is another barrier to a settlement on European security, with continued destruction in Ukraine when the war has entered a stalemate where both sides have exhausted their resources and have little to gain by prolonging this conflict. ...

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Protectionist sentiment in the USA is keeping tariffs high on ethanol to keep out Brazilian ethanol. Some of the arguments used for keeping it out are concern for the Brazilian rainforests, for food prices, for labor. Are these concerns real or just a way of keeping out imported ethanol by farm lobbies in the USA. Brazilian ethanol packs 8.2 times as much energy as the energy used to make it compared to just 1.5 times for corn ethanol, according to the Woodrow Wilson Center. It is grown in Sao Paulo state or the northeast miles away from the Amazon so it is not deforesting the Amazon. About 65% of it is grown on land that was previously pasture, the rest was used for other crops according to Conab, a government agency. Also sugar cane occupies only 7 million hectares or 17 million acres of Brazilian farmland compared to 200 million hectares for cattle ranching so it is not pushing cattle ranchers into the Amazon. So it does not have a noticeable impact on food or beef prices. And sugar cane production may benefit from higher yield varieties with more research. In 2005 of the 440,000 workers, 453 died, 17 were killed in accidents according to a study by a researcher at the the University of sao Paulo. In the same year of the 2.16 million workers in other branches of Brazilian farming, 2900 died and 135 were killed in accidents, so the situation in the sugarcane industry is not much worse than the rest of Brazilian agriculture. Moreover cane cutting is getting mechanized. At Santelisa Vale 60% of cane cutting is mechanized. So the arguments of protectionists in the USA about environmental impact, labor situation, and others do not carry much weight. The tariff on Brazilian ethanol makes it less attractive to import ethanol from Brazil and it creates uncertainty about future imports if the prices of corn based ethanol drop in the USA. Removal of the tariff is supported by John McCain. The tariff is 54cents on each gallon of imported ethanol. Importing ethanol from Brazil would have less impact on corn supply in the USA and on on corn prices so it would put less pressure on the world food supply and world food prices. ...

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How ArvinMeritor navigated the treacherous waters of the automotive parts buzsiness since 2000 when the company was formed taking in the automotive business of Rockwell International in Troy, Michigan. The combination was designed to bring the automotive parts business for roof and door systems, chassis and wheel products with the comercial truck business which makes drivetrain systems and components like axles, drivelines and braking systems. The business is in turmoil and ArvinMeritor last recorded a profit in 2005. Here is how they did it. First, the combination provided some linited diversification for the cyclicality of the automotive business passenger cars and trucking together. By 2004 the foreign makers especially the Japanese were taking market share from the Detroit Big Three car makers which only accelerated after that when the Big Three overconcentrated on SUV's and had no competitive car lineup to match the Japanese in 2007 and 2008. The Big three closed plants and companies like ArvinMeritor closed plants also. In the last couple of years first GM and then Ford began to emphasize emerging market countries like China, Russia, Brazil and India. Wagoner GM's CEO in citing improved results in 2008 specifically referred to the $500 million profit in Brazil as making this possible. He also said that when investors see the improved results so early they are forgetting that the model that GM has setup has changed completely from the model that investors were used to in previous years which was a large and growing US focussed market base. Now its a global focussed market base with particular focus on emerging markets. ArvinMeritor has followed this pattern and set up parts plants in new countries like Russia to supply the Big Three's plants there. But it appears from Phil Martens, Arvin Innovation's CEO's statement that only 20% of global automotive sales for ArvinInnovation, the automobile part of the busines that is being setup as a separate company, are coming from the Big Three of Detroit. And 65% of the sales are coming from outside North America. Which suggests that 15% of sales are coming from the foreign carmakers in North America. ArvinMeritor closed 11 plants in North America and the new company Arvin Innovation has 42 facilities in 16 countries with sales of $2.2 billion in fiscal 2007. ...

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The European Union Commission says Ireland must recover 13 billion euros in back taxes for giving tax preferences to Apple that are against EU rules. The EU Commission says Ireland allowed Apple to pay a corporate tax rate of 1% on its European profits in 2003, and .005% in 2014. The EU Commissioner says the use of Ireland as the place where Apple pays taxes on operations in Europe has no base in reality, as most profits are earned in other countries outside Ireland. Taxable profits of Apple "did not correspond to economic reality," according to Ms. Vestager, the EU Commissioner.  In the current environment where political upheaval is unsettling the democratic process in the U.S., Britain, Spain, France and Italy, as well as in Brazil and other countries in the developing world- because of deep recessions, and efforts to cut the deficits with deep cuts in state spending including in education and healthcare, basic services- the moves by companies to reduce taxes to these absurdly low levels such as .005% when other companies in the EU are paying 12.5%, is becoming increasingly unpopular. As pointed out in this BBC News article this sounds like the way Carnegie, Rockefeller and Vanderbilt operated during the late 19th century, and were seen as operating in a manner that was above the law. Janet Yellen pointed out at a Boston Fed Conference on inequality in Oct 2014 that the bottom half of the distribution or 62 million households in the U.S. in 2013, had a net worth of about $10,000, One quarter of these households had a net worth of zero dollars. The working class and blue collar workers in the U.S. provide much of the support at Trump rallies. Younger college educated people support Sanders, because of the situation of the working and middle class in the U.S., and a similar situation exists in Europe. It is for the sake of the democratic process and delivering services in education, healthcare, and other basic areas to all, that companies small and large need to pay their fair share of taxes, regardless of size, influence, or technological advantages. Today this is is seen by most leaders who draw public support as the right way forward for the U.S., Latin America, Europe and Asian countries, including proper allocation of resources to best serve the needs of working people. For example the 13 billion euros is equal to all of Ireland's healthcare budget, and 66% of its social welfare budget.    ...

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Aeroflot is listed on the London stock exchange. It is going through a makeover by ordering Boeing and Airbus planes to become profitable, because the older Russian made Tu-154 planes were costly to operate with higher fuel consumption. The Sukhoi Superjets are being built in partnership with Boeing. Kramer says the aircraft industry operates on long timelines so that the lack of local aircraft comparable to Embraer of Brazil and Bombardier of Canada is more a reflection of the situation in the 1990's than of today. Newer aircraft are planned for the next decade for smaller midrange planes. In the meantime Aeroflot is selling all of its Tupolev aircraft and plans to layoff 6000 workers during the transition to profitability. Till 2009 Aeroflot was run by Yeltsin's son-in-law, as were many other companies managed by Yeltsin's inner circle during that period. Following changes made by Putin in 2009, a new CEO was appointed to better manage the transition of the airline into a national and global carrier....

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Ford executes new strategy for reaching the younger first time buyers of small cars in India. The car is a hatchback called the Figo designed with the help of Indian engineers for the Indian and overseas markets. It has done a$500 million expansion of its plant in Chennai, India, doubling production to 200,000 vehicles ayear, and 250,000 diesel engines a year by 2010. Mullaly says: "literally India is designing the small car for the world." Separately Ford is building a new car plant in Chongquing, China, for 300,000 cars, midsize and suv's. The change is huge and dramatic for car production. CSM Worldwide predicts car sales in India 45% higher in 2011 compared to 2007, and 39% growth in China, 26% in Brazil. In contrast, car sales in North Americaand Europe will not have returned to 2007 levels by 2011. Considering declining levels in Japan and Germany sales may be on a slow downturn. See links to this. For instance Ford predits Ford's production in North America will decline to 35% of global production by 2015 from 54% in 1997. ...

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Rumelt argues that efforts to induce aconsumption led recovery won't work in 2011-2012 because of the high debt to income ratio of American households, reminiscent of the situtation in the 1930's as America went into World War II. It took a long period of over a decade to bring debt to income ratios down during the 1940's to 20% for America to once again stage a consumption based recovery. Since the solution of war time engagment and lower consumer spending due to wartime rationing is not a feasible solution today, a lot depends on stimulating investment. Rumelt does not say how this would happen in practice as corporations invest to increase production in a consumer based economy. Corporations can invest on increasing production for growing emerging markets such as India, China and Brazil, and this is happening today. But this does not increase growth in the U.S. economy, except in the limited sense that some of the high end development work takes place in the U.S. Policies that stimulate investment would set the stage for a future recovery. ...

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Jurio Osawa talks to Toshiba Corp.'s CEO, Norio Sasaki about Toshiba's plans to increase investments in infrastructure businesses, including nuclear energy. Sasaki sees continuing need to use nuclear energy because of limited supplies of oil and gas to meet needs in emerging markets. He sees demand growing for nuclear energy in China, Brazil, India, Turkey and Vietnam. Toshiba owns Westinghouse Electric, a maker of nuclear power equipment, and acquired Landis+Gyr, a Swiss company which makes advanced power meters. Demand for Westinghouses' AP1000 reactors with safety equipment in China is expected to grow from the 4 being built today to 20 in 2020, and 70 in 2030. He says the consumer electronics businesses have suffered because of the strong yen, and for the failure of Japanese companies to taking strong action to improve their competitive position and staying ahead of market trends. At the same time the consumer electronics business generates cash because investment requirements are low compared to infrastructure businesses, which is why Toshiba will continue to operate in profitable parts of the consumer electronics business....

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The WSJ's Latour, Browne, Tejada and Wei interview Lou Jiwei, chief executive of the China Investment Corporation (CIC), China's sovereign wealth fund. He says it is too early to talk about eurobonds as the financial arrangements necessary have still to be put in place. CIC is reducing its exposure to Europe. CIC is interested in infrastructure investments and sees infrastructure investment as the way out of the economic crisis for the U.S. and Europe. He has the most confidence in investing in China. Other locations are in emerging markets Brazil, S. Africa, Latin America. CIC's target is to have 50% of the assets in long term investments in infrastructure investments, commodities, real estate and direct investment and private equity, etc. and the other half in public securities. But this will pose challenges and CIC has not reached this level. It is learning from ATP, the Danish pension fund, Calpers, TRS, and CPP, the Canada pension fund. The portfolio is mark to market which creates pressures to reduce short term volatilities....

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About 60% of the population in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, countries worst affected by the Ebola virus are facing food shortages. Markets are closed in these countries reducing access to food. The virus is affecting West Africa in other ways. Ample food supplies with lower prices of corn, wheat and rice on world markets, as a result of supplies from Brazil, India and Thailand, is not reaching Africa because of restricted access because of Ebola. Clogged ports, and conflicts adding to this reduced access. In East Africa the FAO estimates 20 millon people face food shortages up from 15 million estimate earlier. The rise in value of the dollar in relation to African currencies is increasing prices of food. Food price inflation is leading to a situation where an household with many children in a relatively better off country like Uganda being able to afford only one meal a day. The result will be increase in malnutrition in Africa if solutions are not found to get access to large food supplies outside Africa with lower prices. ...

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For the first time coordinated rate cuts of half a percentage point by the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England. Yet markets in the swung wildly on Tuesday, October 7, 2008, opening down 200 points then up 200 points after a 500 point drop on the previous day Monday. Asian markets got hammered with steep selloffs as the crisis showed no signs of abating. Previously the ECB had resisted lowering rates saying the crisis was more of an American one with secondary effects in Europe, but the squeeze in the credit markets in Europe and the same fears of banks refusing to lend to one another ocurred in Europe over the last few days so the ECB has reconsidered its view. Meantime emerging markets like Russia and Brazil and other countries are getting hammered. Most Asian markets had already closed by the time the coordinating central banks had acted, Japan's Nikkei declining b 9.4% in its worst one day loss since 1987 and the Hong Kong Hang Seng went down by 8.2%.