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President Biden tells an audience of workers that he sees the world through the eyes of Scranton and the working people he grew up with, and through the eyes of workers like those in the audience. He tells a audience of union workers that he is bringing manufacturing back, and doing this with investments of billions of dollars that never happened under previous administrations for a generation of Americans. Some highlights from his speech- Biden is investing trillions of dollars in American infrastructure, manufacturing and advanced technology and at the same time cutting the deficit by 1.4 trillion dollars The Republican plan of spending cuts being voted in by the House of Representatives will according to Moody's lead to a loss of 780,000 jobs in the US. Forty of the 500 largest corporations in the US paid zero taxes. About $200 billion dollars in profits of corporations are to be taxed at just 15%- lower than what working families pay- to fund much needed investment in America. There are 1000 billionaires in America compared to 700 before the pandemic, and they pay 8% in taxes. President Biden says under his watch no corporation or billionaire should pay less in percentage of income taxes than union workers in the audience.    ...

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Geetanjali Shree win the International Booker prize for the best fiction novel translated from other languages into English. Her book Reti Samadhi is about an older woman coping with the effects of the 1947 partition of India and has what Geetanjali Shree calls the meandering mind of women spanning 725 pages in Hindi. "Woman are stories in themselves, full of stirrings and whisperings that float in the wind, that bend with each blade of grass," says Shree in the opening pages of the novel. Shree writes about a teenager who goes through the traumatic experience of partition as a teenager and experiencing depression at an older age decides to confront the experience by going to the place where it happened a second time. Shree is from Mainpuri, Uttar Pradesh (UP).  UP a Hindi speaking state is getting into the international field as the experiences of the region are being shared in other languages. It is now at the forefront of rapid development in India under the Modi administration and a state administration that sees India's largest state in an international context. Bringing Hindi, its tone and rhythm, and the style and exuberance of the author to a English reader, is a challenge that was handled well by Daisy Rockwell of the US. ...

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This Editorial Board article of the WSJ says the EU's embargo on Russian oil raise the cost for Putin's invasion of Ukraine and demonstrate Europe's resolve. The new round of sanctions by EU will ban the imports of Russian oil by sea as well as insurance for shipping companies that transport it globally. About two thirds of Russian oil comes by tanker. Germany and Poland will also stop pipeline oil imports from Russia, only Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia will continue with Russian pipeline oil. The result- an effective embargo on 90% of Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. How effective is this if Russian oil is rerouted through other countries to reach China, Western Europe and the US? The WSJ says don't underestimate the impact especially when it is combined with the ban on insuring ships that carry Russian oil. The higher insurance rates and costs of shipping will limit Russian oil exports. Europe makes up half of Russian oil exports and WSJ says the rest of the world can't use up all that oil. Russia exported $180 billion of oil in 2021, a large amount of this will no longer be available to Russia to finance the war. ...

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Twenty years after Japanese prime minister Koizumi visited Pyongyang in 2004, Japan's PM Kishida plans to talk to North Korean leader Kim. Koizumi had talks with Kim's father in 2004. The effort is to reduce tensions in the region with elections approaching in Japan, India, and the US in 2024, and to bolster the sense that Japan can manage its role in the region. The Europeans are doing the same as the French and the British are taking a bigger role in Europe during Ukraine conflict. After the Gaza conflict, the Houthis in Red Sea maritime channels, there is a sense that reducing tensions proactively is a better approach rather than wait for things to take their own course in directions that are not good for the world, or taking rigid ideological or other motivated positions that serve no constructive purpose and exacerbate tensions. Gandhiji used to say "tit for tat makes the whole world blind." It is not idealistic to say that but very practical and useful because if you do that you end up with situations where you lose leverage and ability to take positive action and come up with better outcomes, than if you let some unforeseen event or some events by other actors without proper motives to intervene to your serious and the world's detriment. ...

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Think BIG America, Reagan-Friedman theory that says government is best kept out leaves the Nation with hobbled dilapidated infrastructure.  New York City languishes in crisis with decades of neglect of its subway system modernization, the failure of the congestion pricing scheme puts the city in dire straits. Even Mumbai, India, where no subway system existed is getting a new subway. We show the Erie Canal as part of the DNA of America, to think big and move at the forefront of the first Industrial Revolution. It was built in 7 years from 1818 to 1825 for $7 million and opened up the vast hinterland of New York State- Rochester, Buffalo on Lake Erie, Schenectady- and connected it by navigable waterway with locks to the Hudson river at Albany and on to New York City and the Atlantic. On May 13, 1954 Republican president Eisenhower signed the Seaway Act and authorized construction of the St Lawrence Seaway with Canada at cost of $C135 million with 22,000 workers.The US Army Corps of engineers began construction of the US section in 1957 and completed it by 1959 for oceangoing ships to navigate the St. Lawrence River from Duluth in Minnesota and Milwaukee to Quebec and on to Montreal and the Atlantic. These are the projects that built the Midwest and Northeastern states, and Quebec.  ...

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Are high prices for pharmaceutical products and healthcare services putting a severe burden on U.S. finances and defunding education, infrastructure, R&D in new technologies, which provide the underpinnings for future U.S. competitiveness? Yes say experts. In 2009 Americans per person cost of healthcare was $7,960. By comparison Canada was $4,808, Germany $4,218, and France $3,978. And without necessary efforts for educating people about caring for health and preventive care, the health conditions of Americans are no better than these countries, and poorer in some dimensions. Klein says deficits would not be a problem for the U.S. if prices for pharmaceutical products and healthcare services in the U.S. were similiar to that of the largest developing countries. Experts say the Obama healthcare law simply postponed the addressing of this problem.

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Edward DeMarco is head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which is the independent regulatory agency overseeing U.S. housing lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The FHFA was formed in 2008 after merging two existing agencies. Later that year Fannie and Freddie were taken over by the government. FHFA head, DeMarco, is reluctant to help homeowners with underwater mortgages on their homes with reduced payments because this would mean losses to the taxpayer. He sees his mandate as protecting the taxpayer. Sheila Bair, former head of the FDIC, says she understands DeMarco's mandate is not to provide fiscal stimulus, and the Obama administration has been all over the place when it comes to providing homeowner assistance. The result is that there is little help by the U.S. government to homeowners with underwater mortgages since 2008, and this creates larger headwinds for the Federal Reserve Bank to provide momentum to the U.S. economy. Many experts see this as a serious problem and a well respected economist, Martin Feldstein, has made repeated proposals for structuring the help to homeowners since 2008. ...

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Harold Meyerson poses some difficult questions for those who like Mitt Romney say America's choice is between the merit based society Romney sees and the "European social democratic vision." In Romney's words- "a merit-based opportunity society- an American-style society- where people earn their rewards based on their education, their work, their willingness to take risks and their dreams." Meyerson cites several studies to show that European societies today are more dynamic on several measures of performance than America's. In intergenerational mobility he cites a Brookings Institution study by Julia Isaacs, that shows incomes are three times more likely to remain the same in America compared to Denmark, Norway and Finland, and one and a half times more frequently than in Germany. Another measure evident from Germany's experience is the degree of union-company-government cooperation to worker retraining, corporate boards that have representatives of workers and management, the "kurzarbeit" program of retaining employees to smooth out impact of cyclical swings in the economy on workers and companies, and worker's willingness to show restraint on wages especially because management wages are not way out of line as in America. Meyerson reminds readers that the U.S. had a more merit based society in terms of upward intergenerational mobility, distribution of rewards of work between workers in manufacturing and service sectors and management, educational mobility with the G.I. bill, in the first 30 years after the Second World War. In a separate article in the Washington Post on Jan. 5, 2012, David Ignatius poses questions about the effects of globalization in shrivelling the middle class. The access to lower wage manufacturing in China, India, Mexico, and other countries, and lowering of wages in the U.S. to be competitive, was part of globalization. The two tier wage structure in the U.S. automobile industry is one example, making middle class wages a thing of the past. Globalization opened up new markets for American companies. Yet many of the gains in employment were made in emerging markets, as the example of GM's expansion in China showed, with automobile manufacturing expansion inside China....

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The U.S. Congress passed free-trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama, in October 2011. The deals are expected to increase U.S. exports by $13 billion, including $11 billion to S. Korea.

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This NYT editorial says the Pfizer bid to acquire Astra Zeneca is an inversion, a tax maneouvre using openings in U.S. and British tax laws that allows an American company to incorporate in London by acquiring a British company. In effect Pfizer beomes a subsidiary of the British company. This reduces taxes owed even though business takes place at Pfizer as before. NYT says 25 companies have adopted inversions since 2008. The top corporate tax rate in Britain at 20% is lower thant the top rate of 35% in the U.S. Additional tax maoeuvres could make it easier for income shifting to tax havens, and make it possible to free up cash held in foreign countries without the need to first repatriate it to the U.S. The problem is that such maneouvres are taking place at a time of large U.S. deficits, and deep cuts in public services and government investment in R&D, infrastructure, education, that would lead to future economic growth.

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Nikola, US EV maker, files for bankruptcy in Feb 2025. At one time its value was comparable to that of Ford Motor. It shows how speculation can drive up stock prices and valuations that have not the remotest connection to reality.

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The Labor Department reports that there is no U.S. productivity growth in the 4th quarter of 2014 over the prior year. U.S. productivity growth is about 1.3% for the period since 2009, showing a weak expansion. Job gains of 295,000 in February 2015 show an improving jobs picture, yet wage gains are tepid. This is partly due to slack in the labor market not reflected in the official unemployment rate of 5.5% for Feb. 2015, with a large number of part time workers who do not have full time work. The low productivity growth is another reason for low wage gains in this economic recovery. Economic growth is also weak with economists estimating GDP growth for the 1st quarter 2015 at 1.5% annualized. GDP growth is in the 2-2.5% growth range since 2009. Hourly wages are up less than 2% since 2009, with hourly wage growth in Feb. 2015 at 2% over the prior year. Weak business investment is part of the reason for the sluggish economic growth. Macroeconomic Advisors estimates the capital investment for equipment software and buildings is seeing growth of only 0.3% in the last decade, much lower than in the last forty years. With most of the gains from the internet technology advances already made there is less prospect of a sudden increase in productivity....

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Ann Matthews describes how the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the Obama health care law affects 4 managers in the health care industry and U.S. businesses.

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Bernie Sanders presents the case for Medicare for All, healthcare for all legislation in the U.S. Congress introduced in September 2017. It has the support of 15 Senators. He says the current system is costly, wasteful and bureaucratic. It is time says Sanders for the U.S. to join the rest of the industrialized world, join Britain, France, Germany and other countries of Europe, Japan and Australia, Canada, with healthcare for all Americans. After all he says only 50 miles north of his electoral district in the Burlington, Vermont area is Canada, where the system of healthcare for all works better than in the U.S.  And the Canadians, Germans, French, and British do this spending less than half the U.S. does. In 2015 the U.S. spent $10,000 per person for healthcare, this means that it cost less than $5000 per person in these advanced countries and the way they do it can be studied and its best aspects adopted by the U.S.  He says this is because the U.S. healthcare system is designed to maintain profits for the medical-industrial complex. A major problem is the manner in which the issue is distorted by different sides on the issue of health care in the U.S., without a consensus being developed on what the common interest is in a civilized society. Mostly because the U.S. unlike other societies is still grappling with the issue of what values it embraces on healthcare being made available to all. Under this legislation the transition to healthcare for all would take place over 4 years. In the first year eligibility for Medicare would start at age 55 years, and children under 18 would be covered. In the second year the eligibility starts at 45 years, in the third year at 35 years, in the fourth all are covered.  ...

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Lawrence Summers, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, writes on August 2, the day the debt ceiling deal passed the U.S. Congress. His reaction to the deal is one of relief, cynicism and economic anxiety. Relief that the deal does no immediate damage to the economy, which he says is no small achievement. This comes from not denting the U.S. safety net of Medicaid, Social Security and other social programs in the midst of high unemployment. And raising the debt ceiling through 2012 avoids a repeat of the kind of tense negotiations that took place recently. Cynicism because with the revised information from the Commerce Department of 0.4% growth in the first quarter and 1.4% growth in the second quarter of 2011, the new forecast of U.S. budget deficits would be much higher in the years further out. A mere loss of one half percentage point in the annual rate of growth could add $1 trillion dollars to the national debt in 2021. Summers points out that Congress votes annually on discretionary spending and a current Congress cannot control what a future Congress does. Caps and sequester deals can be reformulated in 2013 by a new Congress. This deal says Summers has only confirmed the lower levels of spending already negotiated for 2011 and 2012, even though the estimates show $1 trillion in deficit reduction. For the remaining $1.2 trillion in reductions to be negotiated by the "super-committee" there is no baseline for these cuts- it is not stated whether this baseline is with the Bush high income tax cuts included or excluded. His economic anxiety comes from the low rate of growth in the first half of 2011 which suggest an economy at close to a standstill. He sees a one in three chance of a U.S. recession in the absence of any efforts to spur growth. Martin Feldstein was quoted on television business channels on August 2, saying he sees a 50% chance of the economy slipping back into a recession. Steps Summers advocates are a non-extension of the Bush high-income tax cuts which would add $1 trillion to deficit reduction, some entitlement reform, extension of the payroll tax cut, extension of unemployment insurance, and infrastructure maintenance....

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What is not reported is that the US could accept a shift of some appliance production overseas, what it could not accept is the shift of its manufacturing base in industries it created in semiconductors and technology to Taiwan, China and Japan, South Korea. The economists of the previous administrations were clearly wrong, and the previous administrations did nothing but observe the slow destruction of America's industrial base. It will take 4 years of the DJT administration for the investments to be made in the US, the future administrations will continue this policy. Deng and Kellman in WSJ clearly understate the importance of the policy changes for America's Level Playing Field ALPF. It is easy to say Whirlpool and Harley Davidson won't be coming back strongly soon as the EU, Japan and South Korean makers of appliances and motorcycles will be able to absorb most or all of the 15% in tariffs. Yet it gives them a better  and level playing field to compete with foriegn makers. What is not shown here is that the tariffs will help increase investment in EU and Japanese , South Korean automakers in the US, and will increase with lighter regulation the opportunities for American automakers GM and Ford. ...

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Classic DJT letter to Japan. WSJ annotates the letter but its annotation does not say that Japan has used the relationship with the US to its advantage, putting the US companies and industries at a serious disadvantage since 1970's. US Trade Representative under DJT first term 2016-2020 was Robert Lighthizer. Lighthizer was Deputy Trade Representative under Reagan in the 1980's negotiating with a Japan that would concede little. 2024 USTR Jamieson Greer was Deputy Trade Representative under Lighthizer. The Letter starts setting the tone that we have borne Japan's unwillingness to negotiate fairly with patience, ends stating we are ready to act. "It is a Great Honor for me to send you this letter in that it demonstrates the strength and commitment of our Trading Relationship, and the fact that the United States of America has agreed to continue working with Japan, despite having a significant Trade Deficit with your great Country." "We have had years to discuss our Trading Relationship with Japan, and have concluded that we must move away ....Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from Reciprocal...Goods transshipped to evade a higher Tariff....If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs..." ...

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Matthew Slaughter of the Tuck School, Dartmouth, says that the principle of comparitive advantage should determine what America exports and imports. Under comparitive advantage each country concentrates its energies on the particular goods and services that it does better than other countries. Free trade operates under the idea of comparitive advantage, but in practice it is quite different than its textbook economic counterpart. It is constantly changing as new countries or industries in different countries try to upset the existing pattern. Under a textbook example Airbus should not exist because Boeing was the most efficient manufacturer upto that time, and new entrants in a industry are nurtured for years with support from the governments of their countries. And in some situations the governments may exclude certain companies or industries from support such as Komatsu and construction equipment in postwar Japan, and Infosys and software outsourcing in India, and still survive and grow. Under comparitive advantage Japan should still be importing construction equipment from Caterpillar in the US, and there would be no serious competition in that industry. This would work to the detriment of the principle of competition in free trade which is just as important to free trade as the idea of comparitive advantage, with new entrants in an industry upsetting the old way of doing things and creating price/quality improvements. Slaughter simply pulls back off the shelf the old idea of comparitive advantage without seriously considering its real life aspects. Without dealing with trade distortion from currency manipulation, from the impact on jobs, without considering the continuing critical role of manufacturing in developed economies to provide the standards of living for a large middle class, and creating the kind of society that people of developed countries aspire to. He mentions GE's Immelt and the President's Council on Jobs, but makes no effort to engage Immelt 's statement in his recent op-ed article in the Washington Post, that the concept of transitioning from a export-oriented economic powerhouse to a services led consumption based economy could be done without loss of jobs, prosperity and prestige, was fundamentally wrong. He has only one line for manufacturing's role in America's economy. This line says knowledge intensive industries such as education and software are just as important as manufacturing, but fails to mention that manufacturing has received less attention in recent decades. In so doing he is discounting his own profession of concern for the high rate of joblessness in the U.S., and the need for a new focus on manufacturing in the U.S. to reverse that trend. By saying that imports are not a sign of failure but can raise standards of living, and leaving it at that, Slaughter does not acknowledge that consumer debt that US consumers have taken on in the process certainly affects future prospects for the US economy. And he makes no mention of the need for rebalancing the world economy, which is exactly how free trade should work ideally. Countries that have high imports export more to rebalance the world trading system, as currency valuations are allowed to adjust makig their exports more attractive. By not taking into account the realities of free trade, and the need for practical measures to rebalance without policy induced distortions by state run economies, Slaughter ignores the idea of free trade that works as it should and for all countries. The irony is that Immelt's own committment to jobs and competitiveness has been questioned in online blogs and most recently by an editorial in the Wall Street Journal on January 26, 2011, titled "The Misallocators." That editorial refers to the outsize role of GE Capital in GE's earnings during the past decade, and the lack of credibility of a focus on competitiveness and jobs that this creates for GE. It mentions the loss of 34,000 GE jobs in the US during the last decade. ...

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After OPEC says in a joint decision that it will stick to strictly followin quotas set earlier this year which would mean a modest drop in production, Saudi officials spread the word that they will continue to pump out as much oil as the world needs. So what is the end result? The Saudis are saying they went along yet they will continue to pump oil like before. Part of the reason is the Saudi belief in their own argument that with high prices the world economy would be further affected resuklting in a possible collapse of demand and of prices something it seeks to avoid and is in everybody's interest. This makes sense if one looks at the deep financial crisis facing the US and which has ripples around the world, most recently in financial mmarkets the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie and the possible collapse or sale of Lehman Brothers. And as U.S. elections are up in a few weeks the Saudis do not want to anything that can be interpreted one way or the other, and also a wait and see attitude because a lot of information about the US and world economy is not yet in....

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U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan is interviewed by the WSJ's Wessel and Seib in Jan 2013 on the U.S. deficit deal of Jan 2013, and the negotiations to reduce the deficit.

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43.6 million Americans are on food stamps More than 14% of the US population used food stamps in November 2010, according to the US Department of Agriculture. This is up 14% from a year earlier. The year over year rise in the use of food stamps shows 5,411,000 more people on food stamps. In the midwest industrial states Michigan has 19.4% of the population on food stamps, Wisconsin 13.6%, Ohio 15.4%, Illinois 13.5% In the larger states California has 9.5%, Florida 15.9%, New York 15.1%, Texas 15.6%. The year over year rise in the number of people on food stamps is largest in Texas 697,000, and in Florida with 563,000.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Dec. 13, 2016, that it would increase its benchmark short term interest rate by 0.25 percentage point, to between 0.50% and 0.75%. The increase will also be reflected in business and household borrowing costs. The Fed also announced its intention to make 0.75% percentage point increase in 2017, possibly in 3 quarter percentage point moves. The Fed's forecast is for the fed-funds rate to reach 2.1% at the end of 2018, and 2.9% at the end of 2019. The Fed's policy is based on a sense of strong labor market with unemployment falling, and says it is based on discussion at a 2 day meeting, and "in view of realized and expected labor-market conditions and inflation." This reflects a view that there is now not that much slack in the labor market, that further improvements could trigger higher inflation. Fed forecasts for inflation are for it to increase from 1.5% in 2016 to 1.9% in 2017 and to the target of 2% in 2018. The unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2016 is forecast to go to 4.5% in 2017 and remain at that level till 2019. Economic growth is forecast at a median annual rate of 1.9% in 2016, 2.1% in 2017, only a slight improvement from last forecast in Sept. 2016. Support for chairwoman Yellen's policy decision was unanimous. See the link on views of NYT's Binyamin Applebaum and Neil Irwin on how Fed rate policy and economic growth under the Trump administration is likely to play out, and Ian Talley's report on impact on exports with a stronger dollar in WSJ. These views also are in line with the Fed's forecasts and policy decision as they reflect the concerns of the Fed about inflation, and also reflect the Fed's view that growth will be close to 2% in 2017-2019, and not the 3-4% stated by Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Fed rate policies to keep inflation at about 2% tend to counter stimulus spending by the Trump administration and effect of tax cuts. The size of the stimulus and the tax cuts are also likely to be much smaller than stated because of Republican concerns about the deficit in the U.S. Congress, according to these views. The stronger dollar also has the paradoxical effect of making trade gains more difficult while increasing trade friction in tougher bargaining supported by Trump, making the higher growth targets harder to reach.   ...

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Hyundai's residual values have increased from 40% a year ago to 43%, according to Automotive Lease Guide, surpassing Detroit automakers and catching up with Toyota and Honda; as a result of improving perception of its quality and value. Hyundai's profit is up, as it is able to charge better prices and cuts back on incentives. The Sonata's new model is selling quickly, and this has required using capacity at a Kia plant in the US to build more of this model. Incentives are down by one third compared with 2009. And Daiwa Capital Markets forecast is for profits to triple by the end of 2010, in only 2 years. Ten new product launches in 2010-2011 will add more traffic to its showrooms.

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The effects on the U.S. stock market, Treasurys and corporate bond yields of the U.S. Federal Reserve's move to continue Operation Twist in June 2012. The Fed plans to sell $267 billon in short term debt through the end of the year. The effects are expected to be more muted compared to the quantitative easing efforts of QE I, QE II, and the Operation Twist through June 2012 in which the Fed sold $400 billion in short term debt. The effects of the eurozone crisis and slower growth worldwide are other macroeconomic forces at work which may play a larger role this time.